Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 21 January 2010 at 22:18:25 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 20 January 2010, Arsenal vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Arsenal         22   48  +34      81.10     5.19    56.64    23.09    62.73    92.64    97.79    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         21   48  +34      85.48     5.25    60.55    61.18    86.51    98.08    99.58    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   47  +30      79.72     5.45    48.47    15.34    47.22    87.59    95.87    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   38  +18      67.27     5.65    30.30     0.14     1.23     7.40    34.26    78.65     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        21   38  +12      65.79     5.98    19.31     0.10     0.92     5.30    24.52    66.19     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   37  +14      66.37     5.55    26.65     0.10     0.83     5.24    26.71    73.72     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   36  +11      64.83     5.91    19.38     0.05     0.53     3.49    18.39    60.64     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.68     6.01     4.40     0.00     0.02     0.23     2.46    15.95     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          21   27   +2      52.43     5.96     4.76     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.36     4.08     0.09R    0.01  
Everton         21   26   -4      48.12     5.86    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.80     0.74R    0.06  
Stoke           21   25   -7      44.89     5.90   -12.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     2.87R    0.25  
Blackburn       22   24  -16      40.31     5.39   -25.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    12.69R    1.75  
Sunderland      21   23   -8      44.91     5.96   -11.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.19     3.12R    0.34  
Wigan           20   22  -21      39.83     5.93   -36.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    18.21R    3.08  
Burnley         21   20  -21      36.21     5.63   -35.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.01R    9.81  
West_Ham        21   19   -9      41.44     5.78   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.35R    1.47  
Wolverhampton   21   19  -21      31.98     5.12   -38.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.52R   29.03  
Hull            21   19  -22      33.74     5.46   -37.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.94R   18.66  
Bolton          20   18  -14      36.83     5.83   -28.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.40R    7.65  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.02     5.81   -25.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.07R   27.89  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2010, Blackpool vs Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        25   52  +25      95.01     6.52    46.03    67.21    88.86    99.93    93.13P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     26   49  +19      86.50     6.53    33.93    12.81    44.18    98.44    63.44P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        25   46  +24      87.84     6.85    46.15    18.95    58.45    98.67    72.31P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          25   40   +3      69.33     6.87     4.87     0.07     0.73    35.54     8.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Cardiff          25   39  +15      74.96     7.09    26.68     0.66     4.65    70.65    22.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   38   +3      68.38     7.10     5.16     0.04     0.61    32.21     5.99P    0.04R    0.00  
Leicester        24   38   +3      68.31     7.46     3.52     0.08     0.73    32.13     6.86P    0.05R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   37   +2      66.28     7.16     3.15     0.04     0.24    22.68     4.45P    0.12R    0.01  
Blackpool        25   36   +9      68.77     7.22    14.92     0.09     0.91    36.49     8.82P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_City     25   35   +2      64.30     7.21     2.94     0.01     0.15    15.87     3.14P    0.33R    0.01  
QPR              25   34   +2      64.82     7.22     5.14     0.02     0.20    17.92     3.31P    0.35R    0.02  
Doncaster        24   33   +3      64.06     7.41     4.68     0.02     0.19    16.25     3.58P    0.41R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    25   32   +4      62.57     7.07     6.77     0.01     0.07    11.22     2.34P    0.54R    0.02  
Watford          25   32   -5      59.65     7.21    -7.32     0.00     0.02     5.35     0.82P    2.09R    0.18  
Coventry         26   31   -8      54.34     6.61   -14.62     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.14P    7.72R    0.89  
Barnsley         24   30   -8      54.97     7.14   -17.13     0.00     0.00     1.42     0.20P    8.39R    1.07  
Preston          24   29   -5      57.25     7.39    -7.79     0.00     0.01     3.02     0.49P    4.66R    0.51  
Derby            26   29  -11      49.86     6.47   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   22.94R    3.42  
Ipswich          25   28   -6      53.70     7.11   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.18P   10.74R    1.52  
Scunthorpe       25   27  -16      49.24     6.83   -27.90     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   28.63R    5.74  
Sheff_Wed        25   25  -12      48.85     6.94   -20.57     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   29.20R    6.48  
Reading          25   23  -14      45.76     6.88   -24.22     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   46.18R   13.59  
Plymouth         24   21  -14      43.04     6.99   -25.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   61.69R   24.90  
Peterborough     25   18  -15      40.01     6.83   -26.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.85R   41.63  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 20 January 2010, Oldham vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     25   57  +30      99.64     6.56    50.67    61.74    86.34    99.97    91.55P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          26   54  +31      94.47     6.36    53.98    25.80    65.96    99.70    77.68P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         26   54  +21      90.19     6.63    36.18     9.48    32.88    98.42    50.74P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       24   45  +13      84.62     7.15    27.86     2.31    10.43    90.86    30.88P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          24   44   +5      75.29     7.22     6.52     0.13     0.92    49.72     8.44P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     25   42  +19      79.47     7.15    32.59     0.52     3.18    76.42    23.60P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   39   +5      71.74     6.97    10.84     0.01     0.15    31.32     5.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         25   37   +7      69.82     6.99    13.11     0.01     0.09    22.67     4.92P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   24   35   -4      65.23     7.37    -4.20     0.00     0.01     8.62     1.21P    0.36R    0.00  
Brentford        25   33   -2      60.60     6.83    -3.42     0.00     0.00     2.19     0.39P    1.14R    0.00  
Walsall          23   31   +2      63.29     7.67     2.79     0.00     0.02     6.83     1.27P    0.77R    0.00  
Hartlepool       26   30   -7      55.18     6.65   -11.24     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    6.90R    0.04  
Southampton      25   29  +13      66.14     6.92    26.28     0.00     0.01    11.04     3.25P    0.18R    0.00  
Southend         25   29   -5      56.13     6.80    -8.06     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.05P    5.29R    0.03  
Exeter           26   29   -9      53.91     6.75   -12.73     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P    9.81R    0.10  
Yeovil           25   28   -4      54.98     7.10    -7.59     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.05P    7.85R    0.09  
Carlisle         23   28   -4      55.04     7.46   -12.36     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.10P    9.18R    0.11  
Leyton_Orient    25   27  -11      50.05     6.68   -21.06     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   24.51R    0.48  
Brighton         25   27  -12      50.24     6.76   -22.50     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   24.17R    0.50  
Gillingham       25   26   -7      51.78     6.92   -12.31     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   16.52R    0.30  
Oldham           24   26   -9      50.05     6.90   -17.35     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   24.59R    0.51  
Tranmere         24   22  -22      40.12     6.39   -42.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.69R   12.08  
Wycombe          27   19  -23      37.57     6.20   -34.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.14R   18.95  
Stockport        24   14  -27      31.46     6.31   -50.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.86R   66.80  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 20 January 2010, Macclesfield vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             25   52  +30      96.48     6.36    56.85    77.29    98.36    99.95    98.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          25   46   +3      75.20     6.93     3.58     0.51    15.26    62.75    24.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 25   42   +1      72.64     7.23     3.49     0.22     9.18    48.93    16.75P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            24   40   +9      73.69     7.29    14.00     0.43    13.19    56.63    24.30P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            22   39  +11      79.37     7.88    22.06     2.94    37.91    80.66    49.95P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   39   +5      69.26     6.79     9.20     0.04     3.65    32.12    10.82P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         24   38   +4      69.93     7.43     5.98     0.11     5.34    36.21    12.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.22     7.29    54.52    17.25    79.75    97.29    86.96P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            23   37  +10      76.28     7.70    22.07     0.95    23.28    69.96    36.59P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.73     7.43    12.10     0.03     4.20    32.17    11.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.98     8.10     8.05     0.20     6.90    38.19    14.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale            23   32   +3      64.72     7.77     4.64     0.02     1.65    16.90     5.78P    0.02R    0.00  
Northampton          25   32   +0      63.10     7.17     3.15     0.01     0.65    10.60     3.11P    0.03R    0.00  
Crewe                25   31   -3      60.08     7.03    -3.74     0.00     0.19     4.79     1.20P    0.13R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   30   -2      60.82     7.39    -1.92     0.00     0.30     6.60     1.84P    0.10R    0.00  
Bradford             24   30   -5      56.15     7.17   -12.97     0.00     0.05     1.74     0.40P    0.46R    0.00  
Barnet               24   28   -6      53.15     7.17   -13.62     0.00     0.02     0.69     0.18P    1.13R    0.01  
Macclesfield         23   27   -7      53.60     7.47   -15.39     0.00     0.02     0.99     0.22P    1.46R    0.02  
Hereford             23   26   -6      54.98     7.44   -10.31     0.00     0.06     1.43     0.37P    0.89R    0.01  
Torquay              24   25   -2      54.92     7.41    -3.03     0.00     0.02     1.27     0.39P    0.88R    0.01  
Cheltenham           25   25  -11      48.44     6.89   -20.18     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    4.31R    0.09  
Lincoln_City         23   25  -13      46.96     6.88   -26.41     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    7.26R    0.16  
Grimsby              25   19  -20      34.57     5.77   -41.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.93R    7.74  
Darlington           22   11  -34      23.25     5.47   -70.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.38R   91.95  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2010, Chester vs Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      93.83     6.17    44.40    29.07    98.33    51.67P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         25   56  +27      97.97     6.72    47.94    60.55    99.37    72.11P    0.00     0.00  
York               26   52  +18      88.68     6.55    32.63     7.95    90.79    27.63P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      27   46  +23      81.81     6.18    38.82     1.12    67.62    19.74P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          26   45  +11      80.16     6.59    22.85     0.60    54.38    12.13P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          26   44   +8      72.48     6.77     9.44     0.04    14.00     2.12P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.31     7.48    19.59     0.59    42.27     8.50P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.73     7.21    15.77     0.07    17.38     3.11P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.36     6.79    13.83     0.01     8.41     1.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.15     6.36    -9.19     0.00     0.34     0.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         24   35   +5      67.01     7.25     8.38     0.00     4.43     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.53     7.29     1.07     0.00     1.84     0.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           27   34   -2      57.58     6.32    -5.15     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.03R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      27   33   +5      59.93     6.59     6.44     0.00     0.24     0.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    27   32  -10      55.39     6.48   -14.72     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.13R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.80     7.06   -17.91     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.92R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      58.02     7.89    -1.83     0.00     0.46     0.11P    0.23R    0.00  
Salisbury          27   27   -7      50.35     6.38   -11.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.17R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    27   25  -17      42.51     5.74   -29.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.49R    0.07  
Forest_Green       26   23  -21      40.86     6.10   -36.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.12R    0.34  
Gateshead          26   22  -13      43.83     6.50   -22.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.19R    0.09  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   21  -27      36.62     5.47   -38.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.61R    1.33  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.61     5.23   -52.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.80R   12.10  
Chester            26   -3  -14      19.34     6.49   -21.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.29R   86.05  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1