Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 20 January 2010 at 22:18:21 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 20 January 2010, Arsenal vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Arsenal         22   48  +34      81.04     5.18    56.60    22.76    61.91    92.69    97.89    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         21   48  +34      85.48     5.23    60.44    61.26    86.37    98.18    99.62    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   47  +30      79.84     5.40    48.68    15.61    48.10    88.37    96.15    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   38  +18      67.16     5.67    30.06     0.12     1.40     7.17    33.90    78.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        21   38  +12      65.64     5.97    19.03     0.11     0.83     4.78    24.03    65.28     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   37  +14      66.34     5.53    26.63     0.08     0.83     5.07    26.67    73.89     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   36  +11      64.91     5.92    19.51     0.05     0.56     3.52    18.90    61.64     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.61     6.04     4.31     0.00     0.01     0.20     2.45    16.24     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          21   27   +2      52.39     5.93     4.62     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.31     3.97     0.08R    0.00  
Everton         21   26   -4      48.08     5.91    -6.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.87     0.77R    0.04  
Stoke           21   25   -7      44.87     5.91   -12.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.20     2.99R    0.24  
Blackburn       22   24  -16      40.31     5.45   -25.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    12.89R    1.75  
Sunderland      21   23   -8      45.29     5.98   -11.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.30     2.91R    0.30  
Wigan           20   22  -21      39.76     5.93   -36.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    18.45R    3.34  
Burnley         21   20  -21      36.24     5.58   -35.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.74R    9.53  
West_Ham        21   19   -9      41.28     5.73   -13.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.72R    1.56  
Wolverhampton   21   19  -21      31.96     5.15   -38.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.72R   29.40  
Hull            21   19  -22      33.69     5.46   -37.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.08R   19.36  
Bolton          20   18  -14      36.81     5.86   -28.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    31.77R    8.10  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.27     5.83   -25.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.88R   26.38  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2010, Blackpool vs Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        25   52  +25      95.02     6.50    46.06    67.70    89.16    99.94    93.22P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     26   49  +19      86.40     6.51    33.70    12.63    43.61    98.42    62.66P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        25   46  +24      87.80     6.83    46.07    18.59    58.48    98.66    72.38P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          25   40   +3      69.46     6.96     5.07     0.06     0.71    36.25     8.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Cardiff          25   39  +15      74.97     7.11    26.69     0.70     4.76    70.46    22.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   38   +3      68.46     7.10     5.37     0.05     0.65    32.46     6.26P    0.06R    0.00  
Leicester        24   38   +3      68.40     7.50     3.69     0.09     0.83    32.27     6.84P    0.06R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   37   +2      66.15     7.13     2.96     0.02     0.29    22.21     4.39P    0.14R    0.00  
Blackpool        25   36   +9      68.80     7.24    14.93     0.11     0.89    36.81     9.00P    0.06R    0.00  
Bristol_City     25   35   +2      63.97     7.23     2.46     0.01     0.13    14.85     2.89P    0.39R    0.02  
QPR              25   34   +2      64.82     7.17     5.10     0.01     0.18    17.70     3.32P    0.29R    0.02  
Doncaster        24   33   +3      64.00     7.43     4.63     0.02     0.18    16.36     3.55P    0.42R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    25   32   +4      62.73     7.07     7.00     0.01     0.09    11.85     2.66P    0.58R    0.04  
Watford          25   32   -5      59.41     7.25    -7.66     0.00     0.02     5.06     0.76P    2.38R    0.20  
Coventry         26   31   -8      54.32     6.63   -14.68     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.11P    8.03R    0.91  
Barnsley         24   30   -8      55.03     7.13   -17.02     0.00     0.00     1.51     0.21P    8.30R    1.02  
Preston          24   29   -5      57.23     7.34    -7.82     0.00     0.01     2.97     0.47P    4.66R    0.52  
Derby            26   29  -11      49.80     6.47   -21.12     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   23.03R    3.39  
Ipswich          25   28   -6      54.01     7.10   -10.53     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.16P   10.16R    1.40  
Scunthorpe       25   27  -16      49.33     6.79   -27.81     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   28.07R    5.76  
Sheff_Wed        25   25  -12      49.02     6.93   -20.36     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   28.22R    6.04  
Reading          25   23  -14      45.79     6.88   -24.11     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   46.48R   13.56  
Plymouth         24   21  -14      43.02     6.98   -25.74     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    62.04R   24.50  
Peterborough     25   18  -15      39.87     6.86   -26.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.63R   42.61  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 20 January 2010, Oldham vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     25   57  +30      99.68     6.57    50.79    62.19    86.48    99.94    91.57P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          26   54  +31      94.53     6.33    54.13    25.98    66.27    99.74    78.00P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         26   54  +21      90.20     6.59    36.16     9.09    32.46    98.53    50.80P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       24   45  +13      84.59     7.16    27.82     2.11    10.37    90.67    30.59P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          24   44   +5      75.38     7.23     6.64     0.15     0.96    50.05     8.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     25   42  +19      79.45     7.16    32.54     0.47     3.16    75.98    23.05P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   39   +5      71.58     7.00    10.54     0.01     0.16    30.43     5.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         25   37   +7      69.96     7.02    13.29     0.00     0.09    23.45     5.11P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   24   35   -4      65.37     7.42    -4.01     0.00     0.03     8.93     1.34P    0.37R    0.00  
Brentford        25   33   -2      60.62     6.89    -3.41     0.00     0.00     2.36     0.43P    1.14R    0.00  
Walsall          23   31   +2      63.37     7.69     2.89     0.00     0.02     6.95     1.36P    0.79R    0.00  
Hartlepool       26   30   -7      55.06     6.68   -11.44     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P    6.97R    0.04  
Southampton      25   29  +13      66.09     6.98    26.19     0.00     0.01    10.70     3.06P    0.23R    0.00  
Southend         25   29   -5      56.37     6.82    -7.77     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.09P    4.93R    0.02  
Exeter           26   29   -9      54.16     6.79   -12.32     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    9.17R    0.08  
Yeovil           25   28   -4      55.17     7.03    -7.32     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.05P    7.18R    0.10  
Carlisle         23   28   -4      54.79     7.38   -12.85     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.09P    9.39R    0.10  
Leyton_Orient    25   27  -11      49.92     6.72   -21.35     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   25.15R    0.48  
Brighton         25   27  -12      50.38     6.81   -22.28     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   23.72R    0.43  
Gillingham       25   26   -7      51.62     6.88   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   16.93R    0.30  
Oldham           24   26   -9      49.93     6.91   -17.54     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   24.80R    0.48  
Tranmere         24   22  -22      39.88     6.34   -42.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.57R   12.15  
Wycombe          27   19  -23      37.71     6.18   -34.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.70R   18.00  
Stockport        24   14  -27      31.32     6.26   -50.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.93R   67.78  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 20 January 2010, Macclesfield vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             25   52  +30      96.53     6.40    56.93    77.73    98.38    99.97    98.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          25   46   +3      75.11     6.93     3.42     0.64    14.83    62.46    24.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 25   42   +1      72.61     7.25     3.45     0.32     9.12    48.89    16.91P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            24   40   +9      73.40     7.33    13.58     0.37    12.58    55.21    23.17P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            22   39  +11      79.61     7.84    22.42     2.96    38.92    81.54    50.93P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   39   +5      69.58     6.77     9.72     0.05     3.88    33.88    11.45P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         24   38   +4      69.90     7.44     5.96     0.14     5.37    36.17    12.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.14     7.24    54.37    16.66    79.45    97.38    87.07P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            23   37  +10      76.29     7.79    22.09     0.90    23.78    69.94    36.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.99     7.41    12.60     0.04     4.41    33.84    11.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.72     8.10     7.63     0.17     6.57    36.94    13.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale            23   32   +3      64.72     7.75     4.62     0.01     1.60    16.92     5.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton          25   32   +0      62.99     7.06     3.02     0.00     0.49    10.17     2.95P    0.02R    0.00  
Crewe                25   31   -3      59.90     7.03    -4.03     0.00     0.18     4.44     1.16P    0.12R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   30   -2      60.65     7.27    -2.27     0.00     0.26     6.00     1.56P    0.12R    0.00  
Bradford             24   30   -5      56.48     7.15   -12.39     0.00     0.07     1.82     0.45P    0.43R    0.00  
Barnet               24   28   -6      53.29     7.20   -13.43     0.00     0.02     0.69     0.20P    1.25R    0.02  
Macclesfield         23   27   -7      53.53     7.40   -15.49     0.00     0.02     0.93     0.20P    1.34R    0.02  
Hereford             23   26   -6      55.20     7.46   -10.02     0.00     0.04     1.46     0.32P    0.90R    0.01  
Torquay              24   25   -2      54.77     7.39    -3.27     0.00     0.03     1.22     0.32P    0.85R    0.01  
Cheltenham           25   25  -11      48.50     6.86   -20.03     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.03P    4.06R    0.08  
Lincoln_City         23   25  -13      46.72     6.88   -26.77     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    7.82R    0.19  
Grimsby              25   19  -20      34.58     5.79   -41.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.66R    7.74  
Darlington           22   11  -34      23.31     5.47   -70.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.40R   91.93  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2010, Chester vs Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      93.84     6.21    44.49    28.62    98.41    52.00P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         25   56  +27      98.13     6.72    48.15    61.33    99.33    72.94P    0.00     0.00  
York               26   52  +18      88.51     6.55    32.30     7.46    90.71    26.53P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      27   46  +23      81.90     6.08    38.99     1.13    68.81    20.24P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          26   45  +11      79.95     6.69    22.48     0.62    52.85    11.34P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          26   44   +8      72.49     6.80     9.46     0.05    14.26     2.10P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.27     7.56    19.50     0.70    42.69     8.87P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.48     7.14    15.40     0.07    16.37     2.99P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.54     6.72    14.08     0.01     8.94     1.61P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.29     6.37    -9.02     0.00     0.43     0.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         24   35   +5      66.89     7.27     8.24     0.00     4.47     0.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.52     7.23     1.08     0.00     1.84     0.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           27   34   -2      57.57     6.32    -5.18     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.04R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      27   33   +5      59.88     6.54     6.32     0.00     0.29     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    27   32  -10      55.23     6.43   -14.93     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.19R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.89     7.06   -17.78     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.79R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      58.11     7.83    -1.66     0.00     0.50     0.10P    0.16R    0.00  
Salisbury          27   27   -7      50.34     6.32   -11.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.19R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    27   25  -17      42.53     5.79   -29.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.07R    0.10  
Forest_Green       26   23  -21      40.68     6.06   -36.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.10R    0.33  
Gateshead          26   22  -13      43.73     6.46   -22.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.64R    0.06  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   21  -27      36.83     5.49   -38.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.03R    1.38  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.80     5.26   -51.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.49R   11.55  
Chester            26   -3  -14      19.30     6.44   -21.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.29R   86.59  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1