Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 19 January 2010 at 22:18:24 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 January 2010, Aston_Villa vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         21   48  +34      85.33     5.26    60.24    58.24    85.06    97.56    99.53    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   47  +30      79.71     5.41    48.50    15.04    45.24    86.08    95.90    99.70     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         21   45  +32      81.55     5.23    59.95    26.18    65.10    92.79    98.07    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       21   38  +20      68.89     5.95    32.82     0.36     2.71    12.33    46.25    85.08     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        21   38  +12      65.81     6.03    19.38     0.09     0.94     4.89    23.39    67.73     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   36  +11      64.79     5.93    19.32     0.04     0.47     3.16    17.44    62.46     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       21   34  +12      64.36     5.89    23.91     0.03     0.46     3.00    16.67    61.71     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.71     6.04     4.41     0.00     0.01     0.18     2.41    17.56     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          21   27   +2      52.35     5.94     4.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27     4.25     0.08R    0.00  
Everton         21   26   -4      48.34     5.90    -6.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.10     0.68R    0.04  
Stoke           21   25   -7      44.76     5.94   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.18     3.11R    0.24  
Blackburn       22   24  -16      40.31     5.39   -25.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    12.41R    1.75  
Sunderland      21   23   -8      45.07     5.99   -11.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.31     2.88R    0.34  
Wigan           20   22  -21      39.93     5.96   -35.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    17.68R    2.98  
Burnley         21   20  -21      36.41     5.59   -34.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.06R    8.84  
West_Ham        21   19   -9      41.40     5.75   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     9.22R    1.36  
Wolverhampton   21   19  -21      31.90     5.16   -38.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.65R   29.49  
Hull            21   19  -22      33.80     5.46   -37.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.10R   18.13  
Bolton          19   18  -12      36.20     5.92   -31.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    36.32R   10.05  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.17     5.83   -25.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.80R   26.77  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2010, Blackpool vs Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        25   52  +25      95.08     6.52    46.09    67.49    89.11    99.94    93.36P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     26   49  +19      86.52     6.57    33.89    12.73    43.91    98.30    62.98P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        25   46  +24      87.88     6.78    46.21    18.79    58.38    98.71    72.59P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          25   40   +3      69.48     6.87     5.05     0.05     0.67    36.25     8.43P    0.02R    0.00  
Cardiff          25   39  +15      75.12     7.07    26.90     0.68     4.93    71.18    22.74P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   38   +3      68.46     7.04     5.37     0.05     0.50    32.28     6.08P    0.04R    0.00  
Leicester        24   38   +3      68.48     7.47     3.81     0.07     0.78    32.26     6.70P    0.07R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   37   +2      66.29     7.10     3.16     0.02     0.32    22.49     4.56P    0.13R    0.00  
Blackpool        25   36   +9      68.99     7.16    15.26     0.08     0.87    37.44     8.97P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_City     25   35   +2      63.93     7.15     2.45     0.01     0.13    14.60     2.92P    0.35R    0.01  
QPR              25   34   +2      64.75     7.21     5.04     0.02     0.17    17.55     3.20P    0.36R    0.03  
Doncaster        24   33   +3      63.86     7.44     4.41     0.01     0.14    15.90     3.29P    0.51R    0.03  
Middlesbrough    25   32   +4      62.69     7.08     6.99     0.00     0.08    11.47     2.47P    0.52R    0.03  
Watford          25   32   -5      59.56     7.21    -7.44     0.00     0.02     5.24     0.78P    2.20R    0.20  
Coventry         26   31   -8      54.33     6.58   -14.67     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.10P    7.70R    0.84  
Barnsley         24   30   -8      55.10     7.14   -16.96     0.00     0.00     1.47     0.18P    8.07R    1.09  
Preston          24   29   -5      57.11     7.32    -8.01     0.00     0.00     2.86     0.48P    4.70R    0.53  
Derby            26   29  -11      49.67     6.47   -21.33     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   23.82R    3.43  
Ipswich          25   28   -6      53.70     7.07   -11.05     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.11P   10.61R    1.45  
Scunthorpe       25   27  -16      49.23     6.76   -27.87     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   28.29R    5.79  
Sheff_Wed        25   25  -12      48.85     6.86   -20.61     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   28.69R    5.99  
Reading          25   23  -14      45.81     6.88   -24.10     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   45.86R   13.53  
Plymouth         24   21  -14      42.98     6.90   -25.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   61.87R   24.53  
Peterborough     25   18  -15      39.92     6.87   -26.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   76.19R   42.51  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2010, Charlton vs Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     25   57  +30      99.56     6.62    50.54    61.53    85.78    99.93    91.17P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          26   54  +31      94.55     6.30    54.16    26.28    66.72    99.73    78.19P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         26   54  +21      90.13     6.63    36.10     9.33    32.11    98.34    50.37P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       24   45  +13      84.85     7.13    28.26     2.25    10.98    91.26    31.85P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          24   44   +5      75.33     7.17     6.59     0.12     0.96    50.16     8.27P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     25   42  +19      79.25     7.21    32.27     0.46     3.11    75.18    22.86P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   39   +5      71.69     7.01    10.78     0.01     0.21    31.07     5.84P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         25   37   +7      69.73     7.02    12.89     0.01     0.08    22.81     4.88P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   24   35   -4      65.22     7.30    -4.16     0.00     0.03     8.49     1.12P    0.37R    0.00  
Brentford        25   33   -2      60.56     6.77    -3.46     0.00     0.00     2.10     0.38P    1.21R    0.00  
Walsall          23   31   +2      63.43     7.63     3.02     0.00     0.01     6.99     1.34P    0.81R    0.00  
Hartlepool       26   30   -7      55.17     6.69   -11.25     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.04P    7.31R    0.06  
Southampton      25   29  +13      66.17     7.02    26.33     0.00     0.01    11.65     3.40P    0.20R    0.00  
Southend         25   29   -5      56.01     6.83    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.06P    5.82R    0.03  
Exeter           26   29   -9      54.00     6.75   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    9.91R    0.09  
Yeovil           25   28   -4      55.22     7.06    -7.22     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.08P    7.43R    0.05  
Carlisle         23   28   -4      54.96     7.41   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.09P    9.64R    0.10  
Leyton_Orient    25   27  -11      50.11     6.68   -20.92     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   25.02R    0.54  
Brighton         25   27  -12      50.37     6.80   -22.28     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   24.65R    0.40  
Gillingham       25   26   -7      51.69     6.89   -12.37     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   17.26R    0.28  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.31     7.14   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   20.36R    0.47  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.86     6.64   -43.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.22R   12.95  
Wycombe          27   19  -23      37.51     6.16   -35.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.63R   18.80  
Stockport        24   14  -27      31.38     6.23   -50.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.10R   66.24  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2010, Aldershot vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             25   52  +30      96.55     6.45    57.10    77.66    98.45    99.96    99.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          25   46   +3      75.01     6.89     3.34     0.57    14.51    62.55    23.80P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 25   42   +1      72.52     7.26     3.33     0.32     9.13    48.88    16.90P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            24   40   +9      73.47     7.36    13.71     0.38    12.79    56.20    23.75P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            22   39  +11      79.54     7.89    22.38     2.96    38.83    81.82    51.08P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   39   +5      69.37     6.81     9.38     0.05     3.74    33.37    10.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         24   38   +4      69.94     7.40     6.03     0.12     5.46    36.57    12.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.17     7.23    54.38    16.65    79.48    97.47    87.06P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            23   37  +10      76.44     7.75    22.26     1.00    24.21    71.22    37.74P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.88     7.40    12.39     0.05     4.45    33.54    11.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.70     8.10     7.58     0.21     6.44    37.18    13.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale            23   32   +3      64.67     7.67     4.57     0.02     1.56    16.64     5.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                25   31   -3      60.14     6.99    -3.58     0.00     0.17     4.71     1.15P    0.10R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   30   -2      60.50     7.30    -2.51     0.00     0.27     6.12     1.69P    0.15R    0.00  
Bradford             24   30   -5      56.32     7.18   -12.71     0.00     0.04     1.83     0.40P    0.50R    0.01  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.23     7.34    -0.96     0.00     0.22     5.59     1.48P    0.12R    0.00  
Barnet               24   28   -6      53.08     7.19   -13.77     0.00     0.01     0.72     0.15P    1.38R    0.03  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.17     7.86   -11.49     0.00     0.15     2.70     0.71P    0.78R    0.01  
Hereford             23   26   -6      55.15     7.45   -10.08     0.00     0.05     1.42     0.36P    0.82R    0.02  
Torquay              24   25   -2      54.94     7.43    -2.96     0.00     0.03     1.38     0.38P    0.87R    0.02  
Cheltenham           25   25  -11      48.51     6.84   -20.04     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    4.14R    0.10  
Lincoln_City         23   25  -13      47.10     6.92   -26.21     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    7.46R    0.15  
Grimsby              25   19  -20      34.63     5.80   -41.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.22R    7.40  
Darlington           22   11  -34      23.23     5.46   -70.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.43R   92.27  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2010, Chester vs Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      93.82     6.21    44.41    28.18    98.21    51.36P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         25   56  +27      98.19     6.70    48.25    61.73    99.32    73.05P    0.00     0.00  
York               26   52  +18      88.71     6.51    32.65     7.73    91.39    27.09P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      27   46  +23      81.77     6.14    38.79     1.03    68.09    20.04P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          26   45  +11      79.70     6.65    22.13     0.52    51.52    10.89P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          26   44   +8      72.45     6.82     9.44     0.03    14.38     2.17P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.53     7.56    19.89     0.69    44.19     9.38P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.45     7.18    15.34     0.07    16.46     2.99P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.38     6.77    13.89     0.01     8.65     1.60P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.33     6.37    -8.92     0.00     0.45     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         24   35   +5      67.08     7.19     8.52     0.01     4.57     0.96P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.48     7.30     1.00     0.00     1.86     0.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           27   34   -2      57.66     6.40    -5.06     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      27   33   +5      59.79     6.62     6.17     0.00     0.28     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    27   32  -10      55.41     6.43   -14.65     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.16R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.72     7.06   -18.14     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.96R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      57.85     7.86    -2.08     0.00     0.48     0.10P    0.22R    0.00  
Salisbury          27   27   -7      50.26     6.40   -11.37     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.27R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    27   25  -17      42.57     5.72   -29.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.43R    0.11  
Forest_Green       26   23  -21      40.93     6.18   -36.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.15R    0.32  
Gateshead          26   22  -13      43.86     6.57   -22.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.44R    0.08  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   21  -27      36.64     5.49   -38.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.35R    1.45  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.70     5.27   -51.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.70R   12.10  
Chester            26   -3  -14      19.48     6.48   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.25R   85.93  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1