Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 18 January 2010 at 22:18:26 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 January 2010, Aston_Villa vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         21   48  +34      85.41     5.27    60.44    58.65    85.28    97.80    99.54    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   47  +30      79.75     5.38    48.55    15.06    45.40    86.56    96.28    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         21   45  +32      81.57     5.20    59.98    25.81    65.02    92.85    98.18    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       21   38  +20      68.79     5.91    32.64     0.33     2.61    11.92    46.54    85.18     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        21   38  +12      65.65     6.00    19.06     0.09     0.86     4.75    23.20    67.57     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   36  +11      64.74     5.93    19.22     0.03     0.44     3.19    17.35    62.69     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       21   34  +12      64.19     5.84    23.56     0.04     0.37     2.73    16.29    60.93     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.73     6.04     4.43     0.00     0.02     0.18     2.34    17.96     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          21   27   +2      52.33     5.92     4.52     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.24     4.39     0.11R    0.01  
Everton         21   26   -4      48.35     5.95    -6.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.12     0.73R    0.05  
Stoke           21   25   -7      44.86     5.88   -12.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     2.86R    0.22  
Blackburn       22   24  -16      40.27     5.36   -25.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    12.40R    1.66  
Sunderland      21   23   -8      45.11     5.98   -11.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.32     3.03R    0.29  
Wigan           20   22  -21      40.00     5.98   -35.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    17.45R    3.15  
Burnley         21   20  -21      36.39     5.64   -34.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.56R    9.32  
West_Ham        21   19   -9      41.39     5.73   -13.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     9.30R    1.50  
Wolverhampton   21   19  -21      32.06     5.23   -38.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.55R   28.70  
Hull            21   19  -22      33.73     5.45   -37.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.55R   18.47  
Bolton          19   18  -12      36.19     5.95   -31.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.61R   10.22  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.21     5.83   -25.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.84R   26.43  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 January 2010, Newcastle vs West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        25   52  +25      94.96     6.50    45.92    67.26    88.86    99.92    93.08P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     26   49  +19      86.47     6.55    33.90    12.76    43.37    98.21    62.49P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        25   46  +24      87.78     6.87    46.12    18.63    57.67    98.42    71.45P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          25   40   +3      69.16     6.82     4.68     0.05     0.58    32.44     7.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Cardiff          25   39  +15      75.11     7.00    26.97     0.64     4.47    69.54    21.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   38   +3      68.38     7.01     5.23     0.05     0.55    29.78     5.56P    0.06R    0.00  
Leicester        24   38   +3      68.47     7.49     3.77     0.10     0.74    30.87     6.38P    0.05R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   37   +2      66.20     7.21     3.01     0.04     0.28    20.78     4.19P    0.10R    0.00  
Blackpool        24   36  +10      72.36     7.50    19.55     0.43     2.94    54.25    15.19P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_City     25   35   +2      63.91     7.21     2.34     0.01     0.13    13.52     2.71P    0.34R    0.02  
QPR              25   34   +2      64.99     7.15     5.40     0.02     0.16    16.66     2.92P    0.24R    0.01  
Doncaster        24   33   +3      63.93     7.41     4.45     0.01     0.14    14.64     3.03P    0.41R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    25   32   +4      62.78     7.09     7.10     0.00     0.07    10.68     2.49P    0.46R    0.03  
Watford          25   32   -5      59.42     7.14    -7.69     0.00     0.01     4.37     0.64P    1.98R    0.15  
Coventry         26   31   -8      54.39     6.63   -14.60     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.12P    6.83R    0.67  
Barnsley         24   30   -8      55.04     7.16   -17.01     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.16P    7.16R    0.84  
Preston          24   29   -5      57.30     7.40    -7.79     0.00     0.02     2.77     0.48P    4.19R    0.44  
Derby            26   29  -11      49.91     6.50   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   20.62R    2.93  
Ipswich          25   28   -6      53.85     7.10   -10.81     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.12P    9.00R    1.21  
Scunthorpe       25   27  -16      49.44     6.78   -27.61     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   24.80R    4.82  
Reading          25   23  -14      45.84     6.87   -24.08     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   42.89R   12.01  
Sheff_Wed        24   22  -13      45.11     7.10   -25.32     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   47.48R   15.09  
Plymouth         24   21  -14      42.97     6.93   -25.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   59.49R   22.77  
Peterborough     25   18  -15      39.96     6.87   -26.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.86R   39.00  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2010, Brentford vs Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     25   57  +30      99.59     6.59    50.70    61.54    86.13    99.96    91.47P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          26   54  +31      94.56     6.36    54.12    26.84    66.99    99.75    78.32P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         25   51  +20      89.41     6.83    36.69     8.29    29.24    97.85    48.08P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       24   45  +13      84.67     7.10    27.95     2.16    10.68    91.12    30.90P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     24   41  +19      81.09     7.42    34.95     1.01     5.74    81.83    26.92P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          23   41   +4      74.17     7.57     6.23     0.15     0.92    44.04     7.45P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons          25   39   +5      71.64     6.95    10.72     0.01     0.18    31.18     5.63P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         25   37   +7      69.75     7.02    12.97     0.00     0.07    22.72     4.84P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.37     7.62    -6.58     0.00     0.02     7.96     1.13P    0.61R    0.00  
Brentford        25   33   -2      60.67     6.86    -3.27     0.00     0.00     2.32     0.41P    1.04R    0.00  
Walsall          23   31   +2      63.22     7.64     2.67     0.00     0.01     6.68     1.22P    0.68R    0.01  
Hartlepool       25   30   -6      55.43     6.90   -12.32     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.06P    6.62R    0.06  
Southampton      25   29  +13      66.10     7.00    26.24     0.00     0.01    11.25     3.11P    0.24R    0.00  
Southend         25   29   -5      56.24     6.79    -7.85     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.06P    4.80R    0.05  
Exeter           26   29   -9      54.10     6.72   -12.40     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P    8.69R    0.10  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.51     7.36    -3.79     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.23P    4.33R    0.06  
Carlisle         23   28   -4      54.99     7.43   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.09P    8.89R    0.12  
Brighton         25   27  -12      50.35     6.79   -22.21     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   23.07R    0.47  
Gillingham       25   26   -7      51.59     6.95   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   16.74R    0.38  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.14     7.23   -16.57     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   20.22R    0.57  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.91     6.91   -24.16     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   36.14R    1.62  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.66     6.52   -43.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.24R   15.63  
Wycombe          27   19  -23      37.39     6.10   -35.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.51R   22.00  
Stockport        23   14  -26      32.81     6.61   -49.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.17R   58.92  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2010, Barnet vs Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.15     6.70    57.67    75.46    97.94    99.95    98.63P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          25   46   +3      75.10     6.91     3.43     0.42    12.37    62.51    22.10P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            24   40   +9      73.21     7.39    13.19     0.29     9.95    54.35    21.01P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.49     7.98    29.48     8.14    60.79    92.87    70.03P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   39   +5      69.42     6.78     9.50     0.04     2.88    33.17    10.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Bury                 24   39   +0      71.25     7.51     2.94     0.16     5.76    41.94    13.06P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         24   38   +4      69.86     7.40     5.89     0.06     4.17    35.72    11.15P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.12     7.27    54.45    14.24    76.48    97.36    85.32P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      76.03     7.99    21.07     1.00    19.45    68.36    33.12P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.88     7.40    12.53     0.03     3.16    33.09    10.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.78     8.05     7.75     0.14     5.15    37.27    12.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   30   +0      62.68     7.60     1.11     0.00     0.58    10.72     2.95P    0.07R    0.00  
Crewe                24   30   -3      60.24     7.27    -4.20     0.00     0.18     5.44     1.28P    0.12R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.61     7.41   -11.91     0.00     0.11     3.00     0.71P    0.33R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.10     8.01     1.27     0.01     0.64    10.91     3.29P    0.06R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.54     7.38    -0.37     0.00     0.21     6.31     1.72P    0.12R    0.00  
Barnet               24   28   -6      53.17     7.16   -13.60     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.15P    1.30R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.11     7.85   -11.61     0.00     0.10     2.68     0.61P    0.77R    0.00  
Torquay              24   25   -2      54.99     7.42    -2.98     0.00     0.02     1.34     0.33P    0.77R    0.01  
Hereford             22   25   -6      55.90     7.71    -9.59     0.00     0.06     2.18     0.58P    0.74R    0.00  
Cheltenham           25   25  -11      48.44     6.86   -20.23     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    4.01R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         23   25  -13      47.11     6.93   -26.24     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    7.31R    0.03  
Grimsby              25   19  -20      34.62     5.76   -41.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.45R    2.23  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.75     5.06   -77.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R   97.72  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2010, AFC_Wimbledon vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      93.82     6.20    44.38    29.13    98.52    52.02P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         25   56  +27      97.98     6.70    47.95    60.62    99.39    72.51P    0.00     0.00  
York               26   52  +18      88.61     6.49    32.47     7.79    91.52    27.06P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      27   46  +23      81.87     6.14    38.93     1.13    69.75    20.71P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          26   44   +8      72.48     6.82     9.47     0.03    14.98     2.03P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.77     6.93    22.08     0.44    47.01    10.29P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.48     7.49    19.82     0.77    44.93     9.23P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.50     7.16    15.45     0.07    16.99     2.98P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.27     6.75    13.75     0.01     8.60     1.65P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.26     6.37    -8.98     0.00     0.41     0.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         24   35   +5      66.88     7.27     8.23     0.00     4.91     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.61     7.29     1.17     0.00     2.04     0.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           27   34   -2      57.58     6.31    -5.14     0.00     0.08     0.00P    0.06R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      27   33   +5      60.09     6.55     6.71     0.00     0.30     0.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    27   32  -10      55.49     6.53   -14.56     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.17R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.69     7.06   -18.11     0.00     0.02     0.00     1.06R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      58.18     7.89    -1.65     0.00     0.54     0.11P    0.20R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    27   25  -17      42.60     5.75   -29.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.05R    0.16  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      48.06     6.59   -13.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.53R    0.05  
Forest_Green       26   23  -21      40.79     6.13   -36.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.54R    0.67  
Gateshead          26   22  -13      43.78     6.45   -22.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.75R    0.14  
Ebbsfleet_United   28   21  -26      37.34     5.66   -38.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.14R    1.90  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.55     5.20   -52.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.38R   18.69  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.63     6.79   -18.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.10R   78.39  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1