Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 17 January 2010 at 22:18:23 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 January 2010, Aston_Villa vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         21   48  +34      85.36     5.26    60.42    58.41    85.36    97.63    99.51    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   47  +30      79.85     5.38    48.72    15.61    46.19    86.95    96.25    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         21   45  +32      81.47     5.20    59.67    25.44    64.03    92.61    98.10    99.90     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       21   38  +20      68.84     5.93    32.73     0.37     2.69    12.05    46.45    85.26     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        21   38  +12      65.65     6.01    19.05     0.09     0.84     4.68    22.92    67.16     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   36  +11      64.78     5.90    19.33     0.04     0.51     3.16    17.58    62.92     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       21   34  +12      64.27     5.86    23.78     0.04     0.35     2.72    16.55    61.22     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.77     6.02     4.52     0.00     0.02     0.18     2.32    17.92     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          21   27   +2      52.26     5.94     4.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.25     4.34     0.09R    0.00  
Everton         21   26   -4      48.31     5.92    -6.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.06     0.74R    0.03  
Stoke           21   25   -7      44.77     5.81   -12.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     2.89R    0.23  
Blackburn       22   24  -16      40.23     5.37   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    12.77R    1.81  
Sunderland      21   23   -8      44.94     5.97   -11.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.26     3.09R    0.35  
Wigan           20   22  -21      40.02     5.98   -35.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    17.42R    3.02  
Burnley         21   20  -21      36.38     5.65   -34.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.01R    9.52  
West_Ham        21   19   -9      41.48     5.71   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.11R    1.41  
Wolverhampton   21   19  -21      32.10     5.20   -38.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.52R   28.41  
Hull            21   19  -22      33.76     5.45   -37.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.56R   18.49  
Bolton          19   18  -12      36.22     5.94   -31.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.29R   10.09  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.26     5.87   -25.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.50R   26.64  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2010, Barnsley vs Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.12     6.77    46.92    71.66    90.66    99.92    94.28P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     26   49  +19      86.25     6.54    33.65    10.18    42.92    98.07    61.65P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        24   45  +24      87.54     7.06    44.96    17.02    56.01    98.22    70.25P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          25   40   +3      69.45     6.92     5.05     0.07     0.72    34.05     7.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Cardiff          25   39  +15      75.03     7.04    26.86     0.58     4.76    69.23    21.89P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   38   +3      68.42     7.05     5.33     0.05     0.59    30.16     5.78P    0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        24   38   +3      68.35     7.38     3.58     0.08     0.76    30.02     6.06P    0.04R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   37   +2      66.39     7.06     3.31     0.01     0.29    21.14     4.20P    0.09R    0.00  
Blackpool        24   36  +10      72.26     7.44    19.36     0.32     2.72    53.60    14.94P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_City     25   35   +2      63.96     7.18     2.44     0.00     0.13    13.45     2.66P    0.34R    0.01  
QPR              25   34   +2      64.83     7.17     5.19     0.01     0.18    16.55     3.04P    0.22R    0.01  
Doncaster        24   33   +3      63.84     7.41     4.35     0.01     0.16    14.45     3.14P    0.39R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    25   32   +4      62.70     7.06     6.99     0.00     0.07    10.71     2.50P    0.44R    0.02  
Watford          25   32   -5      59.63     7.16    -7.33     0.00     0.02     4.70     0.77P    1.84R    0.15  
Coventry         26   31   -8      54.35     6.63   -14.61     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.13P    7.08R    0.72  
Barnsley         24   30   -8      54.85     7.15   -17.31     0.00     0.00     1.17     0.19P    7.70R    0.95  
Preston          24   29   -5      57.27     7.28    -7.77     0.00     0.01     2.75     0.46P    3.82R    0.38  
Derby            26   29  -11      49.69     6.49   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   21.54R    3.22  
Ipswich          25   28   -6      53.92     7.10   -10.70     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.14P    9.09R    1.17  
Scunthorpe       25   27  -16      49.35     6.75   -27.70     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   25.41R    4.89  
Reading          25   23  -14      45.95     6.88   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   42.36R   12.04  
Sheff_Wed        24   22  -13      45.29     7.06   -24.91     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   46.36R   14.56  
Plymouth         24   21  -14      43.15     6.96   -25.57     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   58.72R   22.04  
Peterborough     25   18  -15      39.92     6.84   -26.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.52R   39.80  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2010, Hartlepool vs MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     24   57  +32     103.07     6.72    56.00    80.36    93.56    99.97    95.97P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          25   51  +26      90.45     6.81    44.38     8.07    40.01    98.16    56.92P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.40     7.05    36.67     4.96    27.15    96.12    45.31P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      89.28     7.11    38.13     5.89    32.36    96.93    52.77P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          23   41   +4      73.98     7.41     5.89     0.06     0.82    40.91     6.54P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons          25   39   +5      71.84     6.95    11.16     0.02     0.24    30.16     5.42P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      80.25     7.58    35.26     0.62     5.55    77.15    24.84P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.19     7.20    13.09     0.01     0.16    23.53     4.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.43     7.61    -6.52     0.00     0.03     7.21     0.89P    0.46R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.37     7.94     6.53     0.00     0.08    12.76     2.38P    0.29R    0.00  
Brentford        24   30   -4      58.19     7.09    -6.35     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.18P    2.42R    0.01  
Hartlepool       25   30   -6      55.41     6.80   -12.26     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.05P    5.37R    0.06  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.47     6.96    -8.88     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.06P    4.13R    0.05  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.51     7.30    26.47     0.00     0.03    12.52     3.50P    0.19R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.31     7.31    -3.94     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.16P    3.63R    0.03  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.81     7.66    -9.25     0.00     0.01     1.20     0.21P    4.94R    0.07  
Gillingham       25   26   -7      51.73     6.98   -12.16     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   14.08R    0.39  
Exeter           25   26  -11      50.24     6.83   -17.86     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   19.68R    0.57  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.40     7.21   -16.36     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   16.54R    0.56  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.11     6.90   -26.41     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   36.56R    1.89  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.61     6.94   -24.62     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   33.44R    1.85  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.94     6.56   -43.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.09R   15.02  
Wycombe          26   19  -22      38.10     6.32   -35.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.83R   19.93  
Stockport        23   14  -26      32.85     6.59   -49.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.33R   59.58  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2010, Barnet vs Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.18     6.62    57.71    75.31    98.16    99.96    98.84P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          25   46   +3      75.02     6.84     3.36     0.40    11.80    62.18    21.65P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            24   40   +9      73.26     7.36    13.33     0.32     9.77    54.49    21.03P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.51     7.95    29.48     7.82    61.10    92.87    70.57P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   39   +5      69.47     6.79     9.52     0.04     2.88    33.49    10.53P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 24   39   +0      71.22     7.44     2.85     0.14     5.42    41.79    12.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         24   38   +4      70.18     7.46     6.37     0.11     4.61    37.44    11.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.22     7.27    54.58    14.58    76.77    97.48    85.63P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      76.03     8.07    21.11     1.08    19.33    68.24    33.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.75     7.38    12.28     0.03     3.16    32.21    10.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.60     8.08     7.50     0.14     5.06    36.44    12.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   30   +0      62.62     7.64     0.97     0.01     0.58    10.68     2.94P    0.07R    0.00  
Crewe                24   30   -3      60.23     7.28    -4.22     0.00     0.18     5.47     1.28P    0.14R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.65     7.50   -11.81     0.00     0.12     3.25     0.77P    0.38R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.23     7.94     1.50     0.01     0.66    10.95     3.40P    0.07R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.41     7.39    -0.57     0.00     0.25     5.96     1.70P    0.11R    0.00  
Barnet               24   28   -6      53.23     7.13   -13.56     0.00     0.02     0.73     0.16P    1.16R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.19     7.86   -11.53     0.00     0.09     2.70     0.65P    0.75R    0.00  
Torquay              24   25   -2      54.84     7.43    -3.18     0.00     0.01     1.30     0.35P    0.85R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      55.92     7.86    -9.48     0.00     0.06     2.24     0.53P    0.83R    0.00  
Cheltenham           25   25  -11      48.50     6.82   -20.11     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P    4.03R    0.02  
Lincoln_City         23   25  -13      46.92     6.83   -26.55     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    7.49R    0.05  
Grimsby              25   19  -20      34.63     5.78   -41.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.21R    2.14  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.75     5.12   -77.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   97.78  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2010, Cambridge_Utd vs Eastbourne_Boro; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      93.81     6.20    44.44    18.85    98.55    45.96P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.63     6.82    52.84    75.36    99.84    83.16P    0.00     0.00  
York               26   52  +18      88.73     6.50    32.70     4.69    92.04    25.44P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      73.95     7.03    11.52     0.05    21.87     3.25P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.22     6.48    36.90     0.33    59.95    16.29P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.67     7.00    21.93     0.29    47.46    10.65P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.42     7.58    19.72     0.39    45.51     9.16P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.35     7.19    15.10     0.04    17.34     2.99P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.04     6.80    13.35     0.00     8.88     1.61P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.30     6.40    -8.95     0.00     0.39     0.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         24   35   +5      66.96     7.29     8.31     0.00     5.15     0.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.64     7.28     1.22     0.00     2.15     0.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      27   33   +5      60.03     6.54     6.50     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    27   32  -10      55.30     6.40   -14.87     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      53.82     6.43    -9.67     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.32R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.84     7.05   -17.86     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.87R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      58.00     7.80    -1.91     0.00     0.47     0.10P    0.21R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    27   25  -17      42.51     5.80   -29.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.59R    0.18  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      47.99     6.59   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.22R    0.03  
Gateshead          25   22  -12      45.76     6.85   -20.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.42R    0.09  
Ebbsfleet_United   28   21  -26      37.50     5.67   -38.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.25R    1.81  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      39.05     6.46   -38.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.90R    1.44  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.75     5.23   -51.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.16R   17.92  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.57     6.83   -19.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.93R   78.52  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1