Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 16 January 2010 at 22:18:20 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2010, Chelsea vs Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         21   48  +34      85.60     5.29    60.85    62.20    86.48    97.64    99.50    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   47  +30      79.75     5.42    48.52    15.84    48.70    85.79    95.50    99.63     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   42  +30      80.47     5.53    59.58    21.30    58.77    88.60    96.15    99.68     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       21   38  +20      68.91     5.93    32.85     0.39     3.13    12.82    43.83    83.24     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        21   38  +12      65.61     6.00    18.97     0.09     1.04     5.09    21.01    63.41     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.55     6.20    21.68     0.16     1.42     6.73    25.60    70.08     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       21   34  +12      64.34     5.85    23.92     0.02     0.42     2.99    15.35    58.04     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.61     6.05     4.25     0.00     0.02     0.23     2.04    15.12     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          20   27   +4      55.11     6.26     8.88     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.97     9.61     0.02R    0.00  
Everton         21   26   -4      48.12     5.84    -6.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.76     0.58R    0.03  
Stoke           21   25   -7      44.73     5.92   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.15     2.88R    0.23  
Sunderland      21   23   -8      44.97     5.97   -11.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.23     2.76R    0.25  
Wigan           20   22  -21      39.95     5.92   -35.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    16.60R    2.91  
Blackburn       21   21  -18      37.57     5.60   -29.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.70R    5.74  
Burnley         21   20  -21      36.34     5.57   -35.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.27R    8.78  
Wolverhampton   21   19  -21      31.99     5.16   -38.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.39R   28.10  
Hull            21   19  -22      33.83     5.45   -37.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.77R   17.60  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.58     5.91   -16.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    11.44R    2.14  
Bolton          18   18  -10      37.16     6.22   -31.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    29.78R    8.11  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.21     5.84   -25.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.81R   26.12  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2010, Barnsley vs Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.32     6.71    47.16    72.19    91.05    99.93    94.59P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     26   49  +19      86.50     6.54    33.98    10.45    44.22    98.21    62.83P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        24   45  +24      87.35     7.08    44.69    16.29    54.32    97.97    68.84P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          25   40   +3      69.30     6.96     4.85     0.06     0.80    33.29     7.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Cardiff          25   39  +15      75.34     6.98    27.30     0.57     4.74    70.95    22.80P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   38   +3      68.51     7.03     5.48     0.03     0.51    30.25     5.61P    0.03R    0.00  
Leicester        24   38   +3      68.25     7.49     3.48     0.06     0.73    29.60     6.00P    0.08R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   37   +2      66.35     7.08     3.31     0.02     0.32    21.04     4.22P    0.10R    0.00  
Blackpool        24   36  +10      72.29     7.45    19.43     0.29     2.73    53.73    14.84P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_City     25   35   +2      63.87     7.18     2.35     0.00     0.11    13.48     2.64P    0.33R    0.02  
QPR              25   34   +2      64.88     7.20     5.26     0.01     0.20    16.53     3.04P    0.24R    0.02  
Doncaster        24   33   +3      63.95     7.38     4.52     0.01     0.17    14.75     3.12P    0.37R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    25   32   +4      62.72     7.02     7.06     0.00     0.09    10.37     2.16P    0.50R    0.04  
Watford          25   32   -5      59.50     7.14    -7.54     0.00     0.02     4.43     0.72P    1.90R    0.17  
Coventry         26   31   -8      54.16     6.58   -14.93     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.09P    7.24R    0.78  
Barnsley         24   30   -8      54.94     7.13   -17.21     0.00     0.00     1.21     0.16P    7.44R    0.87  
Preston          24   29   -5      57.18     7.33    -7.84     0.00     0.01     2.75     0.48P    3.98R    0.40  
Derby            26   29  -11      49.86     6.50   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   20.60R    2.86  
Ipswich          25   28   -6      53.67     7.10   -11.16     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.11P    9.55R    1.23  
Scunthorpe       25   27  -16      49.41     6.79   -27.60     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   25.18R    4.96  
Reading          25   23  -14      45.90     6.88   -24.04     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   42.78R   11.73  
Sheff_Wed        24   22  -13      45.37     7.07   -24.79     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   45.97R   13.98  
Plymouth         24   21  -14      43.10     6.99   -25.65     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   58.77R   22.64  
Peterborough     25   18  -15      39.77     6.83   -27.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.89R   40.28  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2010, Hartlepool vs MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     24   57  +32     103.21     6.69    56.15    80.65    93.73    99.99    96.07P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          25   51  +26      90.55     6.75    44.57     7.71    40.27    98.22    57.30P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.50     7.03    36.95     4.95    27.78    96.40    45.48P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      89.14     7.26    37.93     6.03    31.59    96.51    52.12P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          23   41   +4      74.03     7.49     5.95     0.07     0.79    41.00     6.65P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   39   +5      71.78     6.87    11.05     0.01     0.19    29.46     5.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      80.13     7.62    35.04     0.58     5.36    76.11    24.07P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.39     7.25    13.40     0.01     0.17    24.68     5.27P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.48     7.57    -6.46     0.00     0.03     7.25     1.05P    0.39R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.38     7.97     6.61     0.00     0.07    13.09     2.55P    0.27R    0.00  
Brentford        24   30   -4      58.14     7.09    -6.43     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.19P    2.47R    0.01  
Hartlepool       25   30   -6      55.26     6.83   -12.57     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.05P    5.65R    0.08  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.39     7.03    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.09P    4.28R    0.05  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.69     7.28    26.76     0.00     0.02    12.77     3.55P    0.17R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.40     7.37    -3.85     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.17P    3.68R    0.04  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.82     7.77    -9.26     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.23P    5.08R    0.08  
Gillingham       25   26   -7      51.69     6.85   -12.26     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   13.32R    0.37  
Exeter           25   26  -11      50.18     6.77   -17.88     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   19.40R    0.54  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.29     7.25   -16.55     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   16.81R    0.68  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.03     6.92   -26.43     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   37.04R    1.91  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.60     6.89   -24.70     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   33.56R    1.71  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.78     6.57   -43.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.73R   15.75  
Wycombe          26   19  -22      38.22     6.35   -35.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.86R   19.55  
Stockport        23   14  -26      32.90     6.62   -49.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.25R   59.23  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2010, Barnet vs Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.13     6.63    57.68    74.84    98.13    99.96    98.79P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          25   46   +3      74.99     6.88     3.28     0.41    11.79    61.83    21.62P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            24   40   +9      73.22     7.29    13.33     0.29     9.54    54.39    20.90P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.67     7.97    29.74     8.22    61.54    93.02    70.89P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   39   +5      69.52     6.79     9.60     0.03     2.91    33.68    10.38P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 24   39   +0      71.34     7.48     3.05     0.14     5.64    42.74    12.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         24   38   +4      69.95     7.44     6.07     0.10     4.23    36.05    11.22P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.23     7.23    54.55    14.67    77.13    97.31    85.57P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      76.05     8.02    21.12     1.06    18.92    68.68    33.05P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.78     7.34    12.28     0.04     3.12    32.23    10.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.85     8.10     7.83     0.19     5.38    37.40    12.80P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   30   +0      62.59     7.56     0.91     0.00     0.47    10.47     2.77P    0.08R    0.00  
Crewe                24   30   -3      60.20     7.22    -4.25     0.00     0.17     5.25     1.24P    0.09R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.67     7.49   -11.85     0.00     0.08     3.17     0.72P    0.31R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.14     7.93     1.32     0.00     0.59    10.68     3.28P    0.07R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.62     7.32    -0.32     0.00     0.19     6.14     1.65P    0.10R    0.00  
Barnet               24   28   -6      53.00     7.19   -13.90     0.00     0.01     0.69     0.16P    1.21R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.10     7.86   -11.60     0.00     0.06     2.55     0.59P    0.83R    0.00  
Torquay              24   25   -2      54.81     7.46    -3.19     0.00     0.02     1.33     0.41P    0.82R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      55.99     7.84    -9.43     0.00     0.05     2.28     0.56P    0.76R    0.00  
Cheltenham           25   25  -11      48.70     6.81   -19.79     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    3.47R    0.03  
Lincoln_City         23   25  -13      46.82     6.92   -26.71     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    7.31R    0.04  
Grimsby              25   19  -20      34.40     5.71   -42.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.05R    2.18  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.81     5.08   -77.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   97.74  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2010, AFC_Wimbledon vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      93.84     6.21    44.47    29.23    98.42    52.22P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         25   56  +27      97.98     6.74    47.94    60.54    99.38    72.16P    0.00     0.00  
York               26   52  +18      88.58     6.53    32.42     7.86    91.40    27.33P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      27   46  +23      81.73     6.17    38.66     1.00    69.07    19.83P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          26   44   +8      72.49     6.79     9.52     0.04    15.02     2.20P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.68     6.97    21.89     0.52    46.87    10.70P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.48     7.54    19.88     0.71    44.82     9.26P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.46     7.14    15.40     0.08    17.06     2.93P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.28     6.78    13.68     0.01     8.94     1.64P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.22     6.38    -9.07     0.00     0.39     0.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         24   35   +5      67.21     7.31     8.70     0.01     5.40     1.12P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.64     7.33     1.23     0.00     2.17     0.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           27   34   -2      57.48     6.38    -5.32     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.03R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      27   33   +5      60.00     6.57     6.54     0.00     0.31     0.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    27   32  -10      55.41     6.47   -14.68     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.16R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.69     7.16   -18.05     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.11R    0.01  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      58.19     7.82    -1.60     0.00     0.55     0.14P    0.23R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    27   25  -17      42.45     5.75   -30.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.70R    0.26  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      48.06     6.60   -13.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.42R    0.05  
Forest_Green       26   23  -21      40.98     6.18   -36.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.84R    0.66  
Gateshead          26   22  -13      43.74     6.43   -22.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.57R    0.14  
Ebbsfleet_United   28   21  -26      37.31     5.65   -38.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.70R    2.12  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.68     5.25   -51.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.13R   18.64  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.71     6.82   -18.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.08R   78.13  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1