Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 15 January 2010 at 22:18:22 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 January 2010, Man_City vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         20   45  +29      84.56     5.49    56.01    56.56    82.15    94.72    98.50    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         21   44  +27      79.23     5.59    48.38    17.08    46.29    78.00    91.49    99.19     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   42  +30      80.32     5.56    58.83    24.06    58.58    84.32    94.17    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        20   38  +14      68.14     6.30    23.59     0.56     3.09    10.52    28.37    72.37     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       20   37  +20      71.23     5.96    37.24     1.38     7.34    21.91    51.57    88.08     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.85     6.14    22.14     0.26     1.69     6.53    20.36    66.54     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   33  +12      64.97     6.13    24.34     0.11     0.83     3.71    13.70    55.03     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.71     6.02     4.54     0.00     0.02     0.22     1.25    12.16     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          20   27   +4      54.75     6.26     8.27     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.56     6.52     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke           20   24   -7      44.86     6.24   -12.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     3.08R    0.34  
Sunderland      20   23   -3      46.00     6.19    -7.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.32     1.90R    0.19  
Everton         20   23   -6      45.48     6.17   -10.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.27     2.46R    0.31  
Blackburn       21   21  -18      37.77     5.58   -29.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.42R    4.92  
Burnley         20   20  -18      36.48     5.69   -35.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.53R    8.48  
Wolverhampton   20   19  -19      34.80     5.63   -34.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.24R   13.51  
Wigan           19   19  -23      37.20     6.12   -40.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.93R    8.47  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.68     5.84   -15.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    10.62R    1.98  
Bolton          18   18  -10      37.04     6.21   -31.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    29.95R    7.90  
Hull            20   18  -22      32.26     5.50   -41.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.42R   27.47  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.06     5.79   -25.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.41R   26.43  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 January 2010, Leicester vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.26     6.71    47.12    71.25    90.45    99.96    94.32P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     25   46  +18      86.17     6.72    34.96    10.06    40.80    97.81    61.18P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        24   45  +24      87.70     7.03    45.33    16.85    55.24    98.29    69.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          24   38  +15      76.51     7.31    28.76     1.08     6.99    75.55    24.96P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        23   38   +4      69.82     7.65     4.85     0.12     1.25    37.32     7.76P    0.04R    0.00  
Swansea          24   37   +2      67.10     7.15     3.15     0.04     0.35    23.67     4.94P    0.06R    0.00  
Blackpool        23   35  +10      73.54     7.71    20.87     0.52     3.88    60.09    17.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   35   +2      66.76     7.30     4.13     0.02     0.29    23.53     4.13P    0.12R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   24   34   +1      64.32     7.34     1.57     0.01     0.15    15.03     2.88P    0.31R    0.02  
QPR              24   33   +2      64.25     7.46     3.53     0.03     0.20    15.64     2.83P    0.40R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    24   32   +5      64.37     7.32     8.34     0.01     0.14    15.89     3.50P    0.28R    0.00  
Bristol_City     24   32   +0      61.51     7.36    -0.67     0.00     0.05     7.95     1.41P    0.88R    0.08  
Watford          24   32   -4      60.88     7.40    -6.52     0.00     0.05     7.09     1.01P    1.20R    0.08  
Coventry         25   31   -7      55.65     6.85   -13.51     0.00     0.01     1.27     0.18P    4.93R    0.50  
Doncaster        23   30   +2      62.49     7.75     3.77     0.01     0.10    11.95     2.57P    0.79R    0.08  
Barnsley         23   30   -7      57.68     7.51   -13.98     0.00     0.01     3.29     0.46P    3.99R    0.44  
Preston          23   29   -3      59.07     7.65    -4.85     0.00     0.03     4.94     0.91P    2.57R    0.29  
Derby            25   26  -14      46.28     6.57   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    39.40R   10.49  
Scunthorpe       24   26  -16      49.07     7.02   -29.11     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.01P   26.08R    5.91  
Ipswich          24   25   -7      52.07     7.28   -11.93     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.06P   13.49R    2.42  
Reading          24   23  -13      45.97     6.99   -25.26     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   40.94R   12.52  
Plymouth         23   21  -13      44.63     7.24   -24.44     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   48.54R   17.30  
Sheff_Wed        23   19  -14      42.57     7.31   -27.96     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   60.29R   26.79  
Peterborough     24   18  -12      43.02     7.21   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   55.67R   23.03  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2010, Leeds_United vs Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     24   57  +32     103.11     6.65    56.15    80.57    93.68    99.98    96.08P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          25   51  +26      90.44     6.76    44.32     7.79    39.81    98.68    56.94P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.64     7.07    37.16     5.11    28.69    97.15    47.18P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      89.21     7.21    38.13     5.97    31.83    97.50    52.39P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      79.86     7.58    34.63     0.51     5.06    78.68    24.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          22   38   +2      72.14     7.72     3.51     0.05     0.52    36.16     5.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.45     7.22    13.47     0.00     0.19    28.94     5.92P    0.03R    0.00  
MK_Dons          24   36   +0      67.35     7.21     1.39     0.00     0.04    15.30     2.18P    0.12R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.45     7.57    -6.53     0.00     0.03     8.98     1.15P    0.46R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.64     7.94     6.95     0.00     0.11    16.00     2.94P    0.31R    0.00  
Hartlepool       24   30   -1      59.44     7.29    -2.71     0.00     0.00     2.36     0.38P    2.11R    0.02  
Brentford        24   30   -4      57.83     7.11    -6.87     0.00     0.00     1.40     0.28P    2.98R    0.02  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.59     6.99    -8.73     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.12P    4.25R    0.04  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.36     7.32    26.21     0.00     0.02    14.58     4.05P    0.22R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.25     7.36    -4.11     0.00     0.00     1.33     0.22P    3.95R    0.04  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.78     7.67    -9.24     0.00     0.00     1.53     0.26P    5.37R    0.08  
Gillingham       24   26   -5      53.16     7.12    -9.96     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.03P   10.93R    0.25  
Exeter           25   26  -11      50.14     6.82   -17.95     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   20.84R    0.66  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.46     7.23   -16.28     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   17.27R    0.53  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.32     6.94   -25.99     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   36.63R    1.81  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.60     6.93   -24.66     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   35.04R    1.80  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      40.00     6.67   -43.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.65R   15.39  
Wycombe          26   19  -22      38.11     6.39   -35.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.14R   20.16  
Stockport        23   14  -26      32.87     6.58   -49.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.71R   59.22  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Bournemouth vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.21     6.67    57.77    75.74    97.93    99.96    98.70P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          24   46   +4      77.46     7.16     5.96     1.11    20.35    74.59    31.27P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.33     7.92    29.23     7.65    59.31    92.95    69.35P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   38   +5      69.67     7.06     9.28     0.06     3.35    35.76    11.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.01     7.28    54.27    13.79    75.40    97.25    84.72P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   37   +7      71.71     7.62    11.46     0.20     7.44    47.13    17.38P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      76.23     8.07    21.47     1.11    19.61    69.85    33.22P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   -1      68.47     7.76     0.09     0.07     3.14    29.83     8.26P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         23   35   +3      68.23     7.79     4.78     0.07     3.20    29.72     8.90P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.72     7.37    12.19     0.05     3.10    32.95    10.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.38     8.08     7.07     0.13     4.70    36.09    11.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                23   30   -1      61.78     7.57    -1.87     0.00     0.41     9.23     2.29P    0.07R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.67     7.49   -11.74     0.00     0.11     3.35     0.79P    0.29R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.31     7.95     1.56     0.00     0.72    11.57     3.59P    0.04R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   29   +0      63.19     7.89     1.25     0.01     0.75    13.32     3.65P    0.05R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.86     7.35     0.10     0.00     0.21     6.85     1.78P    0.08R    0.00  
Barnet               23   28   -5      55.79     7.41   -10.58     0.00     0.04     1.87     0.44P    0.56R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.35     7.77   -11.13     0.00     0.10     2.68     0.66P    0.65R    0.00  
Torquay              23   25   -1      56.16     7.78    -2.38     0.00     0.07     2.61     0.73P    0.60R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      55.91     7.79    -9.53     0.00     0.07     2.26     0.56P    0.72R    0.00  
Cheltenham           24   24  -11      49.28     7.08   -19.68     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.04P    3.88R    0.02  
Lincoln_City         22   22  -14      43.72     7.02   -29.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   15.48R    0.16  
Grimsby              24   18  -20      34.74     6.07   -42.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.72R    2.70  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.95     5.19   -77.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.85R   97.11  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      94.03     6.17    44.75    20.10    98.71    47.20P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.42     6.80    52.50    75.09    99.80    82.79P    0.00     0.00  
York               25   49  +15      87.38     6.76    30.07     3.63    88.33    23.50P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      74.00     7.03    11.57     0.05    22.74     3.49P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.18     6.41    36.96     0.43    60.46    16.62P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.78     6.88    22.11     0.28    49.04    11.04P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.18     7.51    19.37     0.38    44.89     9.09P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.40     7.14    15.17     0.04    17.80     3.00P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.12     6.80    13.42     0.01     9.47     1.74P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.31     6.39    -8.92     0.00     0.44     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.64     7.24     1.13     0.00     2.27     0.36P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      26   33   +6      63.15     6.80    10.47     0.00     1.21     0.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         23   32   +4      65.53     7.53     7.67     0.00     4.25     0.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    26   32   -7      56.30     6.60   -12.42     0.00     0.06     0.00P    0.12R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      53.86     6.40    -9.64     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.23R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      53.02     7.09   -17.52     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.75R    0.01  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      57.85     7.83    -2.17     0.00     0.47     0.08P    0.22R    0.00  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      47.94     6.53   -13.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.76R    0.03  
Gateshead          25   22  -12      45.86     6.81   -20.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.52R    0.09  
Eastbourne_Boro    26   22  -18      39.58     5.90   -33.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.26R    0.81  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   21  -25      38.63     5.88   -37.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.58R    1.39  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      38.77     6.43   -38.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.72R    1.60  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.71     5.20   -51.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.10R   17.36  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.42     6.82   -19.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.73R   78.71  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1