Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 14 January 2010 at 22:18:20 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 January 2010, Man_City vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         20   45  +29      84.54     5.58    55.97    56.30    81.78    94.45    98.35    99.89     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         21   44  +27      79.15     5.57    48.12    16.15    45.27    77.82    91.65    99.19     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   42  +30      80.51     5.52    59.25    25.04    60.08    85.13    94.75    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        20   38  +14      68.10     6.31    23.43     0.55     3.00    10.32    28.52    72.88     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       20   37  +20      71.21     6.04    37.15     1.61     7.46    22.15    52.02    88.07     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.44     6.15    21.43     0.23     1.56     5.99    18.95    64.23     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   33  +12      64.97     6.12    24.31     0.12     0.84     3.92    14.01    56.16     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.54     5.97     4.31     0.00     0.01     0.14     1.11    11.69     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          20   27   +4      55.07     6.27     8.79     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.64     7.57     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke           20   24   -7      45.00     6.18   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     2.84R    0.26  
Sunderland      20   23   -3      45.90     6.14    -7.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27     1.97R    0.20  
Everton         20   23   -6      45.72     6.25   -10.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.32     2.34R    0.25  
Blackburn       21   21  -18      37.63     5.59   -29.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.18R    5.32  
Burnley         20   20  -18      36.54     5.71   -34.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.35R    8.46  
Wolverhampton   20   19  -19      34.70     5.71   -34.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.27R   14.13  
Wigan           19   19  -23      37.25     6.18   -39.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.79R    8.91  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.54     5.87   -15.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    11.03R    2.03  
Bolton          18   18  -10      37.16     6.26   -30.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    29.26R    7.85  
Hull            20   18  -22      32.35     5.51   -41.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.09R   26.74  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.13     5.82   -25.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.85R   25.83  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 January 2010, Leicester vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.28     6.75    47.08    71.94    90.49    99.94    94.17P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     25   46  +18      86.11     6.75    34.88    10.08    41.68    97.70    61.80P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        24   45  +24      87.42     7.09    44.89    16.16    54.02    98.08    68.44P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          24   38  +15      76.40     7.28    28.64     1.02     6.97    74.95    24.89P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        23   38   +4      69.89     7.69     4.95     0.12     1.35    38.00     8.02P    0.04R    0.00  
Swansea          24   37   +2      67.22     7.15     3.35     0.02     0.37    24.35     5.35P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool        23   35  +10      73.55     7.71    20.86     0.58     4.00    60.15    17.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   35   +2      66.64     7.32     3.97     0.02     0.34    22.82     4.12P    0.12R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   34   +1      64.36     7.43     1.69     0.02     0.20    15.27     3.15P    0.30R    0.01  
QPR              24   33   +2      64.28     7.44     3.57     0.01     0.19    15.53     2.70P    0.41R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    24   32   +5      64.41     7.29     8.44     0.01     0.14    16.25     3.50P    0.27R    0.02  
Bristol_City     24   32   +0      61.57     7.38    -0.56     0.00     0.04     8.32     1.47P    0.86R    0.06  
Watford          24   32   -4      60.74     7.36    -6.79     0.00     0.03     6.59     0.83P    1.30R    0.12  
Coventry         25   31   -7      55.67     6.85   -13.52     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.18P    4.96R    0.53  
Doncaster        23   30   +2      62.70     7.64     4.13     0.01     0.14    12.08     2.52P    0.72R    0.06  
Barnsley         23   30   -7      57.54     7.50   -14.18     0.00     0.02     3.07     0.46P    4.25R    0.49  
Preston          23   29   -3      59.01     7.58    -4.91     0.00     0.02     4.78     0.85P    2.52R    0.22  
Derby            25   26  -14      46.44     6.66   -26.92     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   38.94R    9.99  
Scunthorpe       24   26  -16      48.75     6.99   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   27.72R    6.25  
Ipswich          24   25   -7      52.38     7.31   -11.40     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.11P   12.98R    2.28  
Reading          24   23  -13      46.02     7.01   -25.14     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   40.88R   12.44  
Plymouth         23   21  -13      44.78     7.26   -24.26     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   47.64R   16.78  
Sheff_Wed        23   19  -14      42.49     7.22   -28.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   60.21R   27.21  
Peterborough     24   18  -12      42.99     7.29   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    55.87R   23.53  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2010, Leeds_United vs Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     24   57  +32     103.20     6.64    56.21    80.97    93.87    99.98    96.25P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          25   51  +26      90.31     6.73    44.10     7.43    38.92    98.69    56.25P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.70     7.08    37.28     5.09    29.04    97.25    47.19P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      89.21     7.17    38.15     5.93    32.18    97.58    52.64P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      79.85     7.59    34.68     0.52     5.10    78.97    24.69P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          22   38   +2      71.97     7.72     3.22     0.04     0.51    35.56     5.53P    0.03R    0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.37     7.29    13.33     0.01     0.18    29.07     5.95P    0.02R    0.00  
MK_Dons          24   36   +0      67.26     7.19     1.16     0.00     0.05    15.07     2.18P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.27     7.55    -6.76     0.00     0.02     8.57     1.04P    0.46R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.59     7.88     6.88     0.01     0.09    15.88     2.88P    0.27R    0.00  
Hartlepool       24   30   -1      59.42     7.23    -2.76     0.00     0.00     2.45     0.40P    1.93R    0.02  
Brentford        24   30   -4      58.01     7.04    -6.60     0.00     0.00     1.40     0.23P    2.73R    0.02  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.50     6.99    -8.86     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.11P    4.43R    0.05  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.56     7.29    26.54     0.00     0.04    15.22     4.12P    0.16R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.42     7.34    -3.86     0.00     0.00     1.36     0.20P    3.93R    0.05  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.48     7.64    -9.79     0.00     0.01     1.45     0.24P    5.90R    0.08  
Gillingham       24   26   -5      53.34     7.16    -9.66     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.06P   10.47R    0.24  
Exeter           25   26  -11      50.37     6.87   -17.58     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   20.20R    0.56  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.74     7.26   -15.81     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   16.41R    0.48  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.17     6.97   -26.33     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   37.97R    2.02  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.66     6.90   -24.57     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   34.59R    1.65  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.92     6.59   -43.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.23R   15.32  
Wycombe          26   19  -22      38.08     6.33   -35.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.53R   20.12  
Stockport        23   14  -26      32.83     6.65   -49.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.65R   59.39  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Bournemouth vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.15     6.69    57.69    74.82    97.74    99.96    98.54P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          24   46   +4      77.40     7.21     5.82     1.07    19.98    73.96    30.72P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.52     7.87    29.52     7.94    60.15    93.45    69.88P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   38   +5      69.74     7.02     9.38     0.04     3.26    36.21    11.28P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.27     7.27    54.74    14.49    75.84    97.53    85.11P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   37   +7      71.48     7.59    11.14     0.22     6.85    45.67    16.19P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      76.33     8.04    21.65     1.05    19.69    70.13    33.93P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   -1      68.46     7.72     0.10     0.06     3.07    29.72     8.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   35   +3      68.63     7.72     5.40     0.11     3.17    31.32     9.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.95     7.35    12.60     0.03     3.07    34.29    10.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.35     8.12     7.00     0.13     4.84    35.61    11.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe                23   30   -1      61.69     7.54    -2.01     0.00     0.43     8.81     2.20P    0.08R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.67     7.35   -11.75     0.00     0.09     3.02     0.68P    0.27R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.08     7.99     1.24     0.01     0.64    11.13     3.34P    0.06R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   29   +0      63.11     7.95     1.16     0.02     0.79    13.25     3.69P    0.06R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.52     7.37    -0.47     0.00     0.21     6.44     1.64P    0.09R    0.00  
Barnet               23   28   -5      55.64     7.48   -10.90     0.00     0.03     1.85     0.47P    0.57R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.34     7.77   -11.18     0.00     0.06     2.66     0.65P    0.66R    0.00  
Torquay              23   25   -1      56.11     7.76    -2.49     0.00     0.06     2.59     0.70P    0.63R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      56.01     7.80    -9.43     0.00     0.07     2.23     0.53P    0.79R    0.00  
Cheltenham           24   24  -11      49.42     7.12   -19.48     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    3.70R    0.02  
Lincoln_City         22   22  -14      43.64     6.96   -29.66     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   14.93R    0.14  
Grimsby              24   18  -20      34.64     5.99   -42.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.33R    2.60  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.98     5.21   -77.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.83R   97.24  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      94.00     6.15    44.71    20.34    98.77    47.34P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.36     6.80    52.33    74.73    99.80    82.47P    0.00     0.00  
York               25   49  +15      87.33     6.84    29.90     3.75    87.82    23.15P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      73.98     7.02    11.54     0.05    22.56     3.51P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.27     6.44    37.09     0.44    60.88    16.64P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.92     6.86    22.33     0.27    49.64    11.22P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.30     7.54    19.54     0.37    45.23     9.13P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.43     7.20    15.35     0.04    17.99     3.27P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.08     6.78    13.38     0.01     9.16     1.74P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.29     6.39    -8.98     0.00     0.38     0.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.49     7.26     0.92     0.00     2.03     0.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      26   33   +6      63.01     6.80    10.24     0.00     1.31     0.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         23   32   +4      65.40     7.51     7.48     0.00     3.76     0.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    26   32   -7      56.38     6.69   -12.22     0.00     0.07     0.00P    0.10R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      53.99     6.48    -9.47     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.28R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      53.00     7.11   -17.66     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.82R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      57.80     7.82    -2.12     0.00     0.51     0.10P    0.19R    0.00  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      48.01     6.57   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.85R    0.01  
Gateshead          25   22  -12      45.84     6.82   -20.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.56R    0.07  
Eastbourne_Boro    26   22  -18      39.48     5.87   -33.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.73R    0.87  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   21  -25      38.37     5.86   -37.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.51R    1.47  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      39.11     6.43   -38.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.40R    1.57  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.71     5.25   -51.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.94R   17.80  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.58     6.83   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.60R   78.21  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1