Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 12 January 2010 at 22:18:17 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 January 2010, Man_City vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         20   45  +29      84.72     5.51    56.29    57.17    82.60    94.83    98.54    99.90     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         21   44  +27      79.15     5.56    48.17    16.14    45.42    77.79    91.63    99.22     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   42  +30      80.42     5.52    59.01    24.19    59.15    84.64    94.43    99.41     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        20   38  +14      68.10     6.34    23.45     0.58     3.12    10.29    28.52    72.51     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       20   37  +20      71.25     6.00    37.38     1.56     7.40    22.30    51.74    88.10     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.63     6.14    21.76     0.25     1.42     6.05    19.51    65.37     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   33  +12      64.93     6.12    24.26     0.12     0.86     3.85    13.72    55.06     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.88     6.01     4.74     0.00     0.01     0.19     1.27    12.61     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          20   27   +4      54.93     6.22     8.58     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.60     6.95     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke           20   24   -7      44.60     6.25   -13.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.18     3.51R    0.33  
Sunderland      20   23   -3      46.02     6.14    -7.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.30     1.83R    0.20  
Everton         20   23   -6      45.68     6.23   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.36     2.12R    0.25  
Blackburn       21   21  -18      37.73     5.57   -29.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.44R    4.75  
Burnley         20   20  -18      36.71     5.74   -34.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.34R    7.96  
Wolverhampton   20   19  -19      34.77     5.69   -34.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.30R   13.63  
Wigan           19   19  -23      37.18     6.15   -40.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.75R    8.51  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.67     5.90   -15.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    10.77R    1.96  
Bolton          18   18  -10      37.10     6.19   -31.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.37R    7.98  
Hull            20   18  -22      32.17     5.48   -41.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.25R   27.46  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      31.91     5.80   -25.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.30R   26.95  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 January 2010, Leicester vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.21     6.75    47.01    71.34    90.41    99.92    94.27P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     25   46  +18      85.95     6.72    34.63     9.72    40.06    97.67    60.43P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        24   45  +24      87.72     6.99    45.39    17.18    56.02    98.29    70.09P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          24   38  +15      76.51     7.23    28.76     1.03     6.97    75.58    25.44P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        23   38   +4      70.10     7.68     5.24     0.13     1.37    39.05     8.34P    0.03R    0.00  
Swansea          24   37   +2      67.02     7.18     3.03     0.03     0.40    23.44     5.14P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool        23   35  +10      73.30     7.70    20.46     0.52     3.65    58.83    16.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   35   +2      66.77     7.34     4.17     0.02     0.35    23.55     4.19P    0.12R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   34   +1      64.42     7.33     1.74     0.01     0.18    15.17     2.99P    0.26R    0.02  
QPR              24   33   +2      64.37     7.35     3.70     0.01     0.17    15.72     2.78P    0.32R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    24   32   +5      64.26     7.38     8.24     0.00     0.15    15.78     3.30P    0.30R    0.02  
Bristol_City     24   32   +0      61.80     7.38    -0.21     0.01     0.07     8.81     1.65P    0.81R    0.06  
Watford          24   32   -4      60.75     7.42    -6.77     0.01     0.04     6.68     0.92P    1.36R    0.11  
Coventry         25   31   -7      55.82     6.88   -13.25     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.17P    4.85R    0.54  
Doncaster        23   30   +2      62.33     7.67     3.58     0.00     0.11    11.28     2.42P    0.80R    0.07  
Barnsley         23   30   -7      57.57     7.52   -14.12     0.00     0.02     3.16     0.46P    4.03R    0.46  
Preston          23   29   -3      59.10     7.64    -4.80     0.00     0.03     5.01     0.87P    2.72R    0.29  
Derby            25   26  -14      46.32     6.60   -27.09     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   39.55R   10.50  
Scunthorpe       24   26  -16      48.92     6.99   -29.30     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   26.78R    6.24  
Ipswich          24   25   -7      51.95     7.35   -12.14     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.07P   14.44R    2.80  
Reading          24   23  -13      45.98     6.97   -25.25     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   41.11R   12.47  
Plymouth         23   21  -13      44.83     7.29   -24.20     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   47.62R   16.79  
Sheff_Wed        23   19  -14      42.49     7.30   -28.10     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   60.04R   27.27  
Peterborough     24   18  -12      43.17     7.24   -20.72     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   54.78R   22.31  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2010, Leeds_United vs Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     24   57  +32     103.27     6.65    56.27    81.18    94.06    99.98    96.26P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          25   51  +26      90.32     6.79    44.17     7.33    39.55    98.60    56.57P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.48     7.14    36.89     4.97    28.24    97.00    46.37P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      89.16     7.18    38.08     5.92    31.77    97.44    52.32P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      80.16     7.59    35.13     0.54     5.36    79.80    25.36P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          22   38   +2      72.02     7.69     3.29     0.04     0.59    35.46     5.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.31     7.25    13.23     0.01     0.19    28.43     5.76P    0.02R    0.00  
MK_Dons          24   36   +0      67.46     7.18     1.52     0.00     0.05    15.40     2.25P    0.07R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.37     7.52    -6.61     0.00     0.04     8.69     1.05P    0.48R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.56     8.02     6.88     0.01     0.11    16.08     3.03P    0.30R    0.00  
Hartlepool       24   30   -1      59.43     7.23    -2.69     0.00     0.00     2.29     0.38P    2.00R    0.02  
Brentford        24   30   -4      57.75     7.08    -7.02     0.00     0.00     1.25     0.22P    3.01R    0.02  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.58     6.96    -8.75     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.14P    4.15R    0.04  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.55     7.33    26.54     0.00     0.03    15.37     4.34P    0.17R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.27     7.33    -4.05     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.18P    3.95R    0.05  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.72     7.68    -9.41     0.00     0.00     1.49     0.24P    5.46R    0.08  
Gillingham       24   26   -5      53.27     7.12    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.03P   10.41R    0.18  
Exeter           25   26  -11      50.02     6.82   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   21.32R    0.70  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.74     7.25   -15.90     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   16.16R    0.48  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.21     6.95   -26.27     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   37.65R    1.92  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.74     6.95   -24.41     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   34.34R    1.80  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.83     6.58   -43.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.46R   15.35  
Wycombe          26   19  -22      38.12     6.35   -35.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.39R   20.18  
Stockport        23   14  -26      32.91     6.59   -49.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.62R   59.18  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Bournemouth vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.07     6.69    57.53    74.76    97.78    99.97    98.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          24   46   +4      77.37     7.16     5.81     1.11    19.36    73.90    30.34P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.70     7.87    29.80     8.10    60.97    93.65    70.80P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   38   +5      69.69     7.06     9.30     0.05     3.48    35.64    11.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.15     7.21    54.53    14.44    75.92    97.53    85.12P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   37   +7      71.54     7.62    11.19     0.22     7.09    46.14    16.54P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      76.15     8.04    21.31     0.97    19.02    69.50    33.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   -1      68.58     7.75     0.33     0.09     3.14    30.20     8.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   35   +3      68.28     7.72     4.88     0.06     3.01    29.87     8.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.81     7.43    12.38     0.05     3.04    33.69    10.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.49     8.09     7.28     0.13     4.72    36.32    11.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                23   30   -1      61.90     7.55    -1.62     0.00     0.48     9.45     2.41P    0.04R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.54     7.46   -12.02     0.00     0.10     3.17     0.70P    0.31R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.44     8.04     1.78     0.00     0.73    11.90     3.80P    0.06R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   29   +0      63.04     7.93     1.07     0.01     0.70    13.02     3.51P    0.07R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.64     7.41    -0.22     0.00     0.20     6.77     1.66P    0.08R    0.00  
Barnet               23   28   -5      55.56     7.39   -10.97     0.00     0.04     1.59     0.39P    0.53R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.19     7.78   -11.42     0.00     0.09     2.67     0.65P    0.63R    0.00  
Torquay              23   25   -1      56.34     7.70    -2.16     0.00     0.06     2.47     0.66P    0.62R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      56.02     7.76    -9.39     0.00     0.06     2.35     0.58P    0.72R    0.00  
Cheltenham           24   24  -11      49.19     7.10   -19.84     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    4.05R    0.03  
Lincoln_City         22   22  -14      43.85     6.98   -29.19     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   14.79R    0.14  
Grimsby              24   18  -20      34.74     6.01   -42.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.28R    2.29  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.82     5.16   -77.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.79R   97.54  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      94.01     6.12    44.75    20.47    98.71    47.93P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.40     6.78    52.46    74.64    99.81    82.53P    0.00     0.00  
York               25   49  +15      87.35     6.78    29.94     3.67    88.17    23.28P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      73.92     7.08    11.41     0.04    22.69     3.36P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.18     6.42    36.94     0.44    60.65    16.46P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.76     6.90    22.06     0.25    48.57    10.59P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.32     7.57    19.54     0.45    45.49     9.44P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.38     7.14    15.22     0.04    17.72     3.13P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.24     6.75    13.65     0.00     9.54     1.65P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.30     6.35    -8.95     0.00     0.41     0.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.58     7.31     1.12     0.00     2.20     0.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      26   33   +6      63.20     6.80    10.54     0.00     1.32     0.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         23   32   +4      65.49     7.57     7.64     0.00     3.97     0.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    26   32   -7      56.15     6.68   -12.67     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.08R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      53.88     6.45    -9.64     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.25R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.90     7.05   -17.69     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.78R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      58.08     7.90    -1.77     0.00     0.64     0.10P    0.18R    0.00  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      47.90     6.54   -13.68     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.93R    0.04  
Gateshead          25   22  -12      45.87     6.79   -20.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.27R    0.09  
Eastbourne_Boro    26   22  -18      39.41     5.89   -33.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.43R    0.92  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   21  -25      38.52     5.86   -37.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.17R    1.44  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      38.89     6.38   -38.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.41R    1.60  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.78     5.22   -51.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.79R   17.48  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.53     6.82   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.69R   78.43  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1