Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 10 January 2010 at 22:18:33 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2010, Arsenal vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         20   45  +29      84.57     5.55    56.09    56.24    81.71    94.65    98.54    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         21   44  +27      79.37     5.51    48.50    17.31    47.28    79.36    92.58    99.35     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   42  +30      80.36     5.53    59.06    24.07    58.36    84.72    94.70    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       20   37  +20      71.35     6.03    37.46     1.58     7.84    22.81    54.15    88.89     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        19   35  +11      67.13     6.52    21.65     0.45     2.48     8.43    24.58    68.20     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.55     6.14    21.63     0.24     1.50     6.17    19.80    66.56     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   33  +12      64.82     6.08    24.05     0.10     0.79     3.63    13.68    56.27     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.65     6.01     4.46     0.00     0.02     0.18     1.34    12.82     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          20   27   +4      55.00     6.22     8.66     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.60     7.60     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke           20   24   -7      44.83     6.19   -12.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17     3.12R    0.30  
Sunderland      20   23   -3      45.86     6.10    -7.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.30     2.15R    0.25  
Everton         20   23   -6      45.72     6.21   -10.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.39     2.31R    0.26  
Blackburn       20   21  -15      38.53     5.80   -27.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.73R    4.17  
Burnley         20   20  -18      36.60     5.70   -34.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.26R    8.42  
Wolverhampton   20   19  -19      34.67     5.66   -34.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.66R   14.14  
Wigan           19   19  -23      37.21     6.17   -39.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    31.38R    8.72  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.49     5.88   -15.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    11.62R    2.23  
Bolton          18   18  -10      37.06     6.15   -31.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    29.85R    7.98  
Hull            20   18  -22      32.34     5.55   -41.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.20R   27.11  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.05     5.75   -25.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.67R   26.41  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 January 2010, Leicester vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.19     6.81    47.03    71.24    90.15    99.94    93.98P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     25   46  +18      85.96     6.73    34.69    10.15    40.78    97.55    60.81P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        24   45  +24      87.52     7.00    45.03    16.72    54.90    98.22    69.16P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          24   38  +15      76.57     7.30    28.87     1.03     6.94    75.51    24.99P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        23   38   +4      70.10     7.74     5.22     0.16     1.40    38.74     8.31P    0.03R    0.00  
Swansea          24   37   +2      67.10     7.20     3.15     0.03     0.38    23.82     5.22P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool        23   35  +10      73.71     7.71    21.12     0.59     4.30    61.03    17.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   35   +2      66.68     7.29     4.06     0.02     0.34    22.75     4.06P    0.11R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   24   34   +1      64.20     7.39     1.42     0.01     0.18    14.73     2.87P    0.28R    0.02  
QPR              24   33   +2      64.38     7.44     3.71     0.02     0.22    15.75     2.79P    0.36R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    24   32   +5      64.31     7.32     8.30     0.01     0.17    15.44     3.29P    0.25R    0.02  
Bristol_City     24   32   +0      61.65     7.41    -0.48     0.00     0.04     8.49     1.64P    0.97R    0.06  
Watford          24   32   -4      60.88     7.43    -6.55     0.00     0.02     6.97     1.05P    1.30R    0.10  
Coventry         25   31   -7      55.75     6.88   -13.37     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.17P    4.76R    0.52  
Doncaster        23   30   +2      62.33     7.67     3.55     0.01     0.11    11.18     2.36P    0.81R    0.07  
Barnsley         23   30   -7      57.76     7.50   -13.77     0.00     0.01     3.21     0.45P    3.79R    0.46  
Preston          23   29   -3      59.01     7.55    -4.93     0.00     0.03     4.58     0.73P    2.37R    0.24  
Derby            25   26  -14      46.13     6.56   -27.46     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   40.50R   10.65  
Scunthorpe       24   26  -16      48.93     7.07   -29.32     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   26.96R    6.14  
Ipswich          24   25   -7      52.26     7.31   -11.63     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.12P   12.95R    2.28  
Reading          24   23  -13      45.90     7.00   -25.35     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   41.34R   12.74  
Plymouth         23   21  -13      44.82     7.34   -24.20     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    47.53R   17.04  
Sheff_Wed        23   19  -14      42.38     7.29   -28.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    60.76R   27.73  
Peterborough     24   18  -12      43.18     7.23   -20.77     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   54.85R   21.90  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2010, Leeds_United vs Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     24   57  +32     103.02     6.73    55.99    80.37    93.79    99.99    96.08P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          25   51  +26      90.48     6.79    44.39     8.05    40.88    98.65    57.82P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.45     7.08    36.83     5.13    27.93    97.06    46.26P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      88.92     7.23    37.64     5.82    31.00    97.20    51.79P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      79.95     7.59    34.86     0.56     5.39    79.26    24.91P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          22   38   +2      72.04     7.76     3.30     0.05     0.61    35.75     5.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.30     7.26    13.26     0.01     0.23    28.36     5.82P    0.02R    0.00  
MK_Dons          24   36   +0      67.51     7.16     1.64     0.00     0.04    15.72     2.32P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.39     7.51    -6.58     0.00     0.04     8.61     1.07P    0.42R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.52     7.92     6.75     0.00     0.07    15.75     2.89P    0.29R    0.00  
Hartlepool       24   30   -1      59.44     7.21    -2.72     0.00     0.00     2.37     0.39P    1.94R    0.01  
Brentford        24   30   -4      58.09     7.13    -6.46     0.00     0.00     1.54     0.28P    2.89R    0.01  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.50     7.00    -8.92     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.12P    4.38R    0.04  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.58     7.28    26.54     0.00     0.02    15.30     4.04P    0.19R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.34     7.30    -3.93     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.21P    3.95R    0.04  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.92     7.73    -9.16     0.00     0.00     1.67     0.27P    5.34R    0.06  
Gillingham       24   26   -5      53.25     7.25    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.07P   10.82R    0.26  
Exeter           25   26  -11      50.27     6.89   -17.74     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   20.57R    0.65  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.65     7.22   -16.02     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   16.73R    0.51  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.32     6.92   -26.07     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   37.02R    1.72  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.76     6.90   -24.40     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    34.09R    1.61  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.70     6.58   -43.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.17R   15.59  
Wycombe          26   19  -22      38.11     6.33   -35.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.46R   19.79  
Stockport        23   14  -26      32.75     6.65   -50.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.63R   59.69  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Bournemouth vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.13     6.68    57.76    74.43    97.74    99.96    98.48P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          24   46   +4      77.45     7.23     5.95     1.12    20.11    73.87    30.87P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.79     7.88    29.95     8.33    61.32    93.72    71.05P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   38   +5      69.83     7.00     9.54     0.04     3.30    36.35    11.38P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.15     7.29    54.47    14.45    75.38    97.46    84.81P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   37   +7      71.38     7.57    10.90     0.20     6.66    45.31    15.89P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      76.19     8.03    21.44     1.07    19.05    69.56    32.98P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   -1      68.68     7.74     0.47     0.09     3.25    30.56     8.80P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         23   35   +3      68.27     7.73     4.84     0.08     2.91    29.58     8.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      69.08     7.36    12.89     0.02     3.26    34.54    11.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.61     8.08     7.45     0.15     4.73    36.82    12.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                23   30   -1      61.85     7.51    -1.81     0.00     0.39     8.95     2.20P    0.06R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.59     7.44   -11.92     0.00     0.11     3.14     0.71P    0.26R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.01     7.99     1.11     0.01     0.61    10.92     3.24P    0.04R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   29   +0      63.10     7.89     1.09     0.01     0.73    12.94     3.56P    0.04R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.74     7.37    -0.10     0.00     0.19     6.61     1.73P    0.09R    0.00  
Barnet               23   28   -5      55.74     7.50   -10.69     0.00     0.06     1.85     0.47P    0.49R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.36     7.84   -11.20     0.00     0.09     2.70     0.60P    0.64R    0.00  
Torquay              23   25   -1      56.14     7.73    -2.39     0.00     0.04     2.50     0.67P    0.64R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      56.11     7.81    -9.23     0.00     0.07     2.49     0.63P    0.71R    0.00  
Cheltenham           24   24  -11      49.29     7.10   -19.76     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    3.52R    0.02  
Lincoln_City         22   22  -14      43.26     6.90   -30.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    15.98R    0.20  
Grimsby              24   18  -20      34.59     6.02   -43.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.67R    2.44  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.83     5.18   -77.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.83R   97.33  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      93.88     6.12    44.53    19.65    98.76    46.86P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.46     6.82    52.66    75.45    99.79    83.03P    0.00     0.00  
York               25   49  +15      87.35     6.80    29.94     3.62    87.78    22.91P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      73.98     6.99    11.53     0.05    22.33     3.46P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.45     6.52    37.42     0.47    62.01    17.40P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.71     6.95    22.03     0.30    47.98    10.71P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.31     7.50    19.56     0.42    45.18     9.31P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.49     7.09    15.35     0.04    17.85     2.94P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.28     6.73    13.70     0.01     9.58     1.74P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.34     6.35    -8.89     0.00     0.47     0.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.58     7.29     1.07     0.00     2.14     0.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      26   33   +6      63.17     6.81    10.52     0.00     1.25     0.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         23   32   +4      65.70     7.47     7.88     0.00     4.21     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    26   32   -7      56.23     6.69   -12.60     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.11R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      53.76     6.44    -9.84     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.27R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.79     6.99   -17.90     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.79R    0.01  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      57.74     7.82    -2.25     0.00     0.50     0.08P    0.15R    0.00  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      47.70     6.54   -14.07     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.07R    0.04  
Gateshead          25   22  -12      45.97     6.83   -20.46     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.04R    0.06  
Eastbourne_Boro    26   22  -18      39.42     5.88   -33.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.09R    0.85  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   21  -25      38.53     5.93   -37.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.70R    1.39  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      38.90     6.39   -38.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.38R    1.56  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.82     5.25   -51.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.56R   17.45  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.55     6.75   -19.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.83R   78.64  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1