Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 9 January 2010 at 22:18:17 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2010, Arsenal vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         20   45  +29      84.69     5.48    56.27    56.76    82.64    95.06    98.58    99.90     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         21   44  +27      79.25     5.53    48.34    16.21    45.92    78.79    92.12    99.30     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   42  +30      80.49     5.56    59.31    24.86    59.39    85.16    94.74    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       20   37  +20      71.18     6.02    37.19     1.44     7.27    21.91    53.03    88.22     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        19   35  +11      67.18     6.54    21.70     0.41     2.39     8.48    24.64    68.23     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.74     6.18    22.00     0.21     1.54     6.48    20.81    66.94     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   33  +12      64.89     6.18    24.18     0.11     0.85     3.92    14.15    56.34     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      21   33   +2      57.68     5.98     4.49     0.00     0.01     0.16     1.27    12.80     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          20   27   +4      55.01     6.23     8.68     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.63     7.73     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke           20   24   -7      44.97     6.22   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.24     2.92R    0.30  
Sunderland      20   23   -3      45.87     6.14    -7.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.34     2.07R    0.20  
Everton         20   23   -6      45.60     6.19   -10.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.39     2.30R    0.24  
Blackburn       20   21  -15      38.27     5.74   -28.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    21.33R    4.51  
Burnley         20   20  -18      36.60     5.69   -34.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.92R    8.29  
Wolverhampton   20   19  -19      34.62     5.64   -34.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.24R   14.29  
Wigan           19   19  -23      37.24     6.16   -39.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    30.82R    8.68  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.59     5.88   -15.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    11.16R    2.04  
Bolton          18   18  -10      37.00     6.16   -31.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    30.04R    8.05  
Hull            20   18  -22      32.20     5.49   -41.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.35R   27.30  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.11     5.83   -25.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.82R   26.10  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2010, Cardiff vs Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.13     6.76    46.87    71.04    90.14    99.92    93.89P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     25   46  +18      86.09     6.68    34.84    10.20    41.09    97.57    61.31P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        24   45  +24      87.48     7.01    45.01    16.68    53.91    98.09    68.56P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          24   38  +15      76.68     7.30    29.10     1.11     7.25    75.22    25.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester        22   37   +4      71.09     7.98     6.14     0.30     2.08    43.20     9.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea          24   37   +2      67.09     7.16     3.11     0.02     0.32    22.91     5.05P    0.06R    0.00  
Blackpool        23   35  +10      73.62     7.78    21.00     0.57     4.14    59.54    17.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   35   +2      66.71     7.31     4.13     0.03     0.37    22.27     3.89P    0.10R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   24   34   +1      64.51     7.36     1.84     0.01     0.17    14.96     2.89P    0.26R    0.01  
QPR              24   33   +2      64.47     7.39     3.88     0.01     0.16    15.27     2.77P    0.29R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    24   32   +5      64.34     7.26     8.35     0.01     0.13    15.19     3.22P    0.25R    0.02  
Bristol_City     24   32   +0      61.65     7.35    -0.45     0.00     0.04     8.06     1.59P    0.78R    0.04  
Watford          24   32   -4      60.89     7.51    -6.52     0.00     0.03     6.95     1.05P    1.29R    0.11  
Coventry         25   31   -7      55.74     6.92   -13.38     0.00     0.00     1.33     0.18P    4.82R    0.51  
Doncaster        23   30   +2      62.36     7.63     3.60     0.00     0.10    10.76     2.20P    0.75R    0.06  
Barnsley         23   30   -7      57.70     7.54   -14.00     0.00     0.01     3.28     0.43P    3.89R    0.48  
Preston          23   29   -3      59.02     7.66    -4.91     0.00     0.04     4.69     0.82P    2.46R    0.24  
Derby            25   26  -14      46.07     6.54   -27.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    40.26R   10.74  
Scunthorpe       24   26  -16      48.91     7.03   -29.39     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   26.77R    6.09  
Ipswich          23   24   -7      51.70     7.58   -13.03     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.09P   15.50R    3.13  
Reading          24   23  -13      46.02     6.97   -25.18     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   40.07R   12.24  
Plymouth         23   21  -13      44.81     7.29   -24.25     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   47.09R   16.61  
Sheff_Wed        23   19  -14      42.33     7.26   -28.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   60.50R   27.68  
Peterborough     24   18  -12      43.12     7.24   -20.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   54.81R   22.01  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2010, Leeds_United vs Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     24   57  +32     103.17     6.58    56.19    81.21    94.25    99.99    96.43P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          25   51  +26      90.42     6.77    44.25     7.65    40.26    98.66    57.34P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.29     7.07    36.53     4.63    27.21    96.88    45.22P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      89.12     7.15    38.00     5.96    31.92    97.42    52.67P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      80.09     7.59    35.01     0.50     5.46    79.58    25.41P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          22   38   +2      72.18     7.69     3.58     0.05     0.53    36.29     5.65P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.36     7.28    13.29     0.01     0.17    28.47     5.75P    0.02R    0.00  
MK_Dons          24   36   +0      67.45     7.19     1.49     0.00     0.05    15.28     2.18P    0.10R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.36     7.54    -6.62     0.00     0.04     8.68     1.12P    0.49R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.54     8.01     6.85     0.00     0.09    15.95     2.95P    0.27R    0.00  
Hartlepool       24   30   -1      59.37     7.22    -2.76     0.00     0.00     2.30     0.36P    1.96R    0.02  
Brentford        24   30   -4      58.01     7.10    -6.64     0.00     0.00     1.44     0.25P    2.91R    0.02  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.48     6.97    -8.85     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.09P    4.22R    0.06  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.54     7.25    26.49     0.00     0.02    14.83     4.04P    0.20R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.33     7.37    -3.97     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.22P    3.88R    0.04  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.79     7.69    -9.34     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.24P    5.41R    0.08  
Gillingham       24   26   -5      53.08     7.10   -10.05     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.03P   10.93R    0.28  
Exeter           25   26  -11      50.23     6.87   -17.84     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   20.65R    0.58  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.47     7.23   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   17.29R    0.51  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.26     6.92   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   37.23R    1.95  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.78     6.94   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    34.14R    1.67  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.93     6.57   -43.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.18R   15.23  
Wycombe          26   19  -22      38.13     6.33   -35.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.48R   19.75  
Stockport        23   14  -26      32.84     6.58   -50.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.61R   59.81  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Bournemouth vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.01     6.71    57.48    74.87    97.74    99.95    98.48P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          24   46   +4      77.41     7.20     5.89     1.00    20.29    74.11    30.95P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.39     7.97    29.31     8.06    59.61    92.89    69.54P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   38   +5      69.80     7.05     9.46     0.05     3.58    36.29    11.84P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      86.99     7.26    54.34    14.35    75.16    97.32    84.50P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   37   +7      71.46     7.65    11.09     0.23     7.28    45.66    16.58P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      76.19     8.05    21.36     1.11    19.58    69.71    33.49P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   -1      68.57     7.72     0.28     0.08     3.17    30.24     8.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   35   +3      68.26     7.72     4.80     0.08     3.15    29.74     8.89P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.77     7.40    12.32     0.03     3.12    33.08    10.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.62     8.02     7.45     0.14     4.80    36.89    12.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                23   30   -1      61.96     7.56    -1.60     0.00     0.47     9.42     2.41P    0.07R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.59     7.46   -11.87     0.00     0.11     3.13     0.77P    0.29R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.34     8.02     1.57     0.01     0.63    11.61     3.56P    0.04R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   29   +0      63.21     7.94     1.32     0.01     0.82    13.38     3.70P    0.05R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.69     7.38    -0.18     0.00     0.18     6.72     1.65P    0.09R    0.00  
Barnet               23   28   -5      55.64     7.39   -10.83     0.00     0.06     1.79     0.41P    0.52R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.48     7.86   -10.90     0.00     0.13     2.97     0.74P    0.59R    0.00  
Torquay              23   25   -1      56.18     7.80    -2.38     0.00     0.05     2.59     0.73P    0.62R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      55.97     7.79    -9.46     0.00     0.08     2.34     0.57P    0.78R    0.00  
Cheltenham           24   24  -11      49.37     7.05   -19.53     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    3.47R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         22   22  -14      43.73     6.98   -29.53     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   15.07R    0.17  
Grimsby              24   18  -20      34.58     6.03   -42.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.56R    2.48  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.93     5.15   -77.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.83R   97.33  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      93.91     6.20    44.61    20.12    98.63    47.50P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.43     6.80    52.53    75.15    99.84    82.83P    0.00     0.00  
York               25   49  +15      87.38     6.73    30.01     3.52    88.52    23.27P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      73.82     7.02    11.30     0.06    21.82     3.38P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.20     6.45    37.00     0.43    60.65    16.45P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.72     6.90    22.00     0.25    48.66    10.86P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.38     7.55    19.61     0.42    46.06     9.28P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.40     7.13    15.22     0.04    17.79     3.11P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.06     6.77    13.32     0.01     9.15     1.70P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.28     6.36    -8.99     0.00     0.49     0.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.53     7.23     0.99     0.00     2.19     0.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      26   33   +6      63.13     6.77    10.43     0.00     1.30     0.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         23   32   +4      65.66     7.48     7.84     0.00     4.12     0.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    26   32   -7      56.29     6.64   -12.45     0.00     0.09     0.00P    0.09R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      53.74     6.44    -9.86     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.25R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.84     7.06   -17.74     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.79R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      58.23     7.86    -1.62     0.00     0.65     0.13P    0.14R    0.00  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      47.94     6.54   -13.61     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.89R    0.03  
Gateshead          25   22  -12      45.70     6.83   -20.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.03R    0.09  
Eastbourne_Boro    26   22  -18      39.44     5.86   -33.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.49R    0.84  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   21  -25      38.57     5.89   -37.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.37R    1.26  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      39.11     6.41   -37.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.36R    1.44  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.75     5.25   -51.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.86R   17.87  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.59     6.82   -18.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.71R   78.46  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1