Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 8 January 2010 at 22:18:26 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 January 2010, Stoke vs Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         20   45  +29      84.53     5.50    55.93    45.61    77.17    94.04    98.35    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         20   43  +27      79.97     5.84    48.88    16.34    43.50    79.35    92.66    99.30     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         19   41  +30      83.12     5.51    64.99    36.57    70.70    91.99    97.62    99.83     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       20   37  +20      71.30     5.96    37.39     1.02     5.38    19.08    52.62    88.77     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        19   35  +11      67.22     6.46    21.67     0.30     1.70     7.13    23.89    68.28     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.55     6.19    21.67     0.12     1.03     5.03    19.19    65.75     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   33  +12      65.00     6.07    24.50     0.05     0.51     3.15    13.77    57.35     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      20   32   +2      57.53     6.21     3.85     0.00     0.01     0.21     1.35    12.89     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          20   27   +4      54.92     6.23     8.49     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.52     7.14     0.04R    0.00  
Stoke           20   24   -7      44.89     6.24   -12.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20     3.21R    0.34  
Sunderland      20   23   -3      46.07     6.17    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.37     1.89R    0.17  
Everton         19   22   -6      43.54     6.27   -15.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17     5.34R    0.77  
Blackburn       20   21  -15      38.53     5.77   -27.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.27R    4.13  
Burnley         20   20  -18      36.55     5.69   -35.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.59R    8.31  
Wolverhampton   20   19  -19      34.62     5.59   -34.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.00R   14.43  
Wigan           19   19  -23      37.25     6.12   -39.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.60R    8.53  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.72     5.88   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    10.64R    1.91  
Bolton          18   18  -10      37.04     6.20   -31.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.33R    8.30  
Hull            20   18  -22      32.37     5.51   -41.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.18R   26.96  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.24     5.85   -25.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.90R   26.14  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 8 January 2010, West_Brom vs Nottm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.16     6.70    46.94    71.31    90.15    99.91    93.90P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     25   46  +18      85.96     6.78    34.67     9.88    39.42    97.31    59.75P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        24   45  +24      87.47     7.09    44.90    16.27    53.39    97.88    68.09P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          23   37  +15      77.32     7.54    29.55     1.57     8.96    76.43    26.62P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   37   +4      71.18     7.90     6.35     0.23     2.06    43.04     9.60P    0.03R    0.00  
Swansea          24   37   +2      67.33     7.16     3.44     0.02     0.33    23.22     5.16P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   35   +2      66.74     7.38     4.08     0.02     0.31    22.24     4.08P    0.13R    0.00  
Blackpool        22   34  +10      73.58     8.09    20.32     0.65     4.61    58.58    17.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   34   +1      64.48     7.34     1.77     0.01     0.15    14.27     2.83P    0.21R    0.01  
QPR              24   33   +2      64.55     7.44     3.99     0.02     0.21    15.55     2.78P    0.30R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    24   32   +5      64.08     7.22     7.92     0.01     0.14    13.91     2.89P    0.20R    0.01  
Bristol_City     24   32   +0      61.75     7.33    -0.31     0.00     0.05     8.00     1.53P    0.70R    0.04  
Watford          24   32   -4      60.83     7.42    -6.68     0.00     0.04     6.48     0.93P    1.21R    0.09  
Doncaster        23   30   +2      62.36     7.68     3.57     0.01     0.09    10.81     2.33P    0.75R    0.08  
Barnsley         22   30   -5      59.86     7.87   -10.46     0.00     0.06     6.12     0.93P    2.31R    0.22  
Preston          23   29   -3      59.20     7.67    -4.63     0.00     0.02     4.86     0.95P    2.18R    0.21  
Coventry         24   28   -9      53.23     7.09   -16.81     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.09P    9.91R    1.49  
Derby            24   26  -11      49.50     7.04   -20.95     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   21.84R    4.45  
Ipswich          23   24   -7      51.67     7.56   -13.04     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.08P   15.09R    3.08  
Reading          24   23  -13      45.92     6.97   -25.39     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   39.78R   11.84  
Scunthorpe       23   23  -19      44.93     7.03   -36.23     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   47.71R   16.33  
Plymouth         23   21  -13      44.85     7.27   -24.14     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   45.80R   15.58  
Sheff_Wed        23   19  -14      42.48     7.22   -28.13     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   58.74R   25.72  
Peterborough     24   18  -12      43.20     7.20   -20.74     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   53.05R   20.83  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Hartlepool vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     23   56  +32     105.99     6.68    60.73    88.99    97.04   100.00    98.26P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          24   48  +24      89.64     6.91    43.65     4.11    36.44    98.19    54.76P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.52     7.02    36.93     3.02    28.53    97.31    46.72P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      89.01     7.16    37.89     3.53    31.55    97.54    52.10P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      79.96     7.64    34.81     0.30     5.50    78.97    25.30P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          22   38   +2      71.87     7.75     3.01     0.03     0.57    35.22     5.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.33     7.25    13.27     0.00     0.18    28.80     5.88P    0.03R    0.00  
MK_Dons          24   36   +0      67.35     7.23     1.33     0.00     0.06    15.73     2.30P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.38     7.55    -6.63     0.00     0.02     8.95     1.12P    0.47R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.39     7.91     6.60     0.00     0.07    15.53     2.90P    0.32R    0.00  
Hartlepool       24   30   -1      59.47     7.21    -2.62     0.00     0.00     2.31     0.37P    1.84R    0.02  
Brentford        24   30   -4      58.00     7.04    -6.62     0.00     0.00     1.47     0.22P    2.55R    0.02  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.63     7.00    -8.73     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.13P    4.11R    0.03  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.55     7.28    26.53     0.00     0.03    15.47     4.08P    0.22R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.23     7.34    -4.16     0.00     0.00     1.25     0.16P    3.90R    0.07  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.90     7.63    -9.02     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.25P    4.97R    0.05  
Gillingham       24   26   -5      53.21     7.18    -9.94     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.05P   10.74R    0.22  
Exeter           24   26   -9      50.80     7.03   -17.37     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   18.53R    0.48  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.70     7.26   -15.98     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   16.23R    0.38  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.07     6.89   -26.48     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   37.76R    1.68  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.77     6.90   -24.39     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   33.47R    1.44  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.87     6.60   -43.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.29R   14.08  
Wycombe          25   18  -22      36.46     6.34   -39.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.18R   27.03  
Stockport        23   14  -26      33.04     6.57   -49.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.30R   54.49  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Bournemouth vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.14     6.62    57.73    75.27    97.91    99.97    98.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          24   46   +4      77.44     7.28     5.88     1.15    20.45    73.75    31.02P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.64     7.86    29.75     7.82    60.73    93.42    70.65P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   38   +5      69.67     7.11     9.25     0.05     3.46    35.65    11.39P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.06     7.26    54.39    14.16    75.39    97.49    84.64P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   37   +7      71.60     7.66    11.28     0.21     7.21    46.43    16.81P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      75.91     8.04    21.00     0.96    18.14    68.59    32.06P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   -1      68.61     7.71     0.37     0.08     3.04    30.41     8.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   35   +3      68.36     7.76     5.03     0.07     3.29    30.21     9.05P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      69.10     7.36    12.91     0.06     3.35    34.60    11.46P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.51     8.00     7.29     0.15     4.55    36.15    11.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                23   30   -1      61.85     7.56    -1.75     0.01     0.43     9.35     2.32P    0.07R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.50     7.38   -12.11     0.00     0.07     3.06     0.64P    0.29R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.19     7.95     1.42     0.01     0.69    11.15     3.37P    0.07R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   29   +0      63.11     7.96     1.12     0.01     0.81    13.33     3.56P    0.05R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.94     7.34     0.19     0.00     0.23     6.85     1.81P    0.07R    0.00  
Barnet               23   28   -5      55.73     7.40   -10.71     0.00     0.05     1.75     0.40P    0.47R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.35     7.78   -11.11     0.00     0.07     2.66     0.61P    0.62R    0.00  
Torquay              23   25   -1      56.21     7.76    -2.34     0.00     0.07     2.64     0.72P    0.63R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      55.93     7.79    -9.57     0.00     0.07     2.37     0.59P    0.67R    0.00  
Cheltenham           24   24  -11      49.24     7.12   -19.85     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    3.96R    0.02  
Lincoln_City         22   22  -14      43.55     6.88   -29.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.26R    0.14  
Grimsby              24   18  -20      34.70     6.03   -42.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.98R    2.45  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.76     5.13   -77.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.84R   97.39  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      94.09     6.15    44.87    20.54    98.72    47.90P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.45     6.81    52.59    74.68    99.78    82.73P    0.00     0.00  
York               25   49  +15      87.33     6.81    29.92     3.67    88.09    23.20P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      73.84     7.03    11.33     0.06    22.26     3.39P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.28     6.45    37.18     0.37    61.00    16.59P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.74     6.86    22.06     0.23    48.58    10.59P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.29     7.60    19.51     0.40    45.27     8.96P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.61     7.19    15.55     0.05    18.66     3.49P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.23     6.78    13.65     0.00     9.40     1.73P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.37     6.41    -8.88     0.00     0.49     0.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.43     7.28     0.81     0.00     1.94     0.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      26   33   +6      63.24     6.81    10.62     0.00     1.18     0.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         23   32   +4      65.50     7.45     7.58     0.00     3.97     0.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    26   32   -7      56.28     6.60   -12.43     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.11R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      53.80     6.45    -9.79     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.29R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.91     7.09   -17.70     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.81R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      57.85     7.82    -2.18     0.00     0.54     0.09P    0.13R    0.00  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      47.92     6.58   -13.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.04R    0.03  
Gateshead          25   22  -12      45.84     6.79   -20.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.32R    0.09  
Eastbourne_Boro    26   22  -18      39.41     5.92   -33.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.36R    0.88  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   21  -25      38.61     5.92   -37.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.77R    1.28  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      38.89     6.39   -38.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.74R    1.53  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.73     5.20   -51.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.83R   17.60  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.51     6.84   -19.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.58R   78.57  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1