Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 7 January 2010 at 22:18:24 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 January 2010, Stoke vs Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         20   45  +29      84.52     5.48    55.92    46.02    77.48    94.23    98.45    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         20   43  +27      79.93     5.78    48.85    16.35    43.31    79.65    92.71    99.31     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         19   41  +30      82.97     5.61    64.62    36.18    70.24    91.29    97.29    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       20   37  +20      71.19     5.97    37.28     0.95     5.42    18.69    51.25    88.38     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        19   35  +11      67.46     6.48    22.23     0.28     1.87     7.36    25.09    69.08     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.75     6.16    22.05     0.16     1.09     5.32    19.99    66.49     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   33  +12      64.93     6.10    24.33     0.04     0.57     3.17    13.19    55.92     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      20   32   +2      57.65     6.32     4.01     0.00     0.01     0.23     1.50    13.42     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          20   27   +4      54.79     6.24     8.29     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.53     6.90     0.04R    0.00  
Stoke           20   24   -7      44.88     6.21   -12.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.21     3.24R    0.39  
Sunderland      20   23   -3      46.02     6.18    -7.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     1.98R    0.22  
Everton         19   22   -6      43.50     6.27   -16.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     5.46R    0.76  
Blackburn       20   21  -15      38.33     5.72   -28.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.88R    4.29  
Burnley         20   20  -18      36.50     5.69   -35.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.01R    8.73  
Wolverhampton   20   19  -19      34.77     5.65   -34.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.26R   14.25  
Wigan           19   19  -23      37.37     6.15   -39.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    30.12R    8.49  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.69     5.86   -15.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    10.75R    1.97  
Bolton          18   18  -10      37.14     6.24   -31.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    29.70R    7.96  
Hull            20   18  -22      32.25     5.49   -41.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.05R   27.76  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.35     5.85   -25.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.52R   25.19  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 December 2009, Barnsley vs Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.17     6.79    46.98    65.19    90.59    99.93    94.12P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        23   45  +26      90.52     7.17    49.70    27.61    71.99    99.17    81.28P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     24   43  +16      83.02     7.08    30.65     4.85    22.32    93.38    46.59P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          23   37  +15      77.65     7.55    30.13     1.47     8.38    78.21    27.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester        22   37   +4      71.06     7.96     6.09     0.23     1.72    43.23     9.25P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea          24   37   +2      67.34     7.15     3.44     0.02     0.35    23.63     5.26P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   35   +2      66.86     7.32     4.27     0.03     0.30    22.99     4.20P    0.12R    0.01  
Blackpool        22   34  +10      73.34     8.06    19.94     0.57     3.74    57.87    16.19P    0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   34   +1      64.18     7.34     1.41     0.00     0.11    13.92     2.74P    0.26R    0.02  
QPR              24   33   +2      64.46     7.38     3.89     0.02     0.16    15.52     2.79P    0.35R    0.03  
Middlesbrough    24   32   +5      63.99     7.28     7.71     0.00     0.12    14.19     2.97P    0.28R    0.02  
Bristol_City     24   32   +0      61.48     7.39    -0.69     0.00     0.03     7.97     1.59P    0.83R    0.06  
Watford          24   32   -4      60.85     7.41    -6.65     0.00     0.03     6.83     0.96P    1.17R    0.11  
Doncaster        23   30   +2      62.21     7.70     3.38     0.00     0.09    10.85     2.35P    0.84R    0.05  
Barnsley         22   30   -5      59.80     7.81   -10.65     0.00     0.04     6.06     0.90P    2.32R    0.24  
Preston          23   29   -3      59.16     7.58    -4.70     0.00     0.03     4.78     0.87P    2.15R    0.23  
Coventry         24   28   -9      53.17     7.09   -16.88     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.11P    9.95R    1.57  
Derby            24   26  -11      49.49     7.01   -21.05     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   21.99R    4.50  
Ipswich          23   24   -7      51.88     7.57   -12.73     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.10P   14.70R    2.89  
Reading          24   23  -13      46.07     6.99   -25.14     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   39.37R   11.24  
Scunthorpe       23   23  -19      45.25     7.12   -35.81     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   46.28R   15.51  
Plymouth         23   21  -13      44.69     7.26   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   47.17R   16.19  
Sheff_Wed        23   19  -14      42.44     7.31   -28.29     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   59.47R   26.39  
Peterborough     24   18  -12      43.32     7.23   -20.64     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    52.68R   20.95  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Hartlepool vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     23   56  +32     105.87     6.73    60.41    88.61    96.91    99.99    98.10P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          24   48  +24      89.52     6.98    43.47     4.31    35.72    97.91    53.80P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.29     7.07    36.67     3.06    27.97    96.97    45.97P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      89.21     7.17    38.20     3.68    32.72    97.50    53.35P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      79.98     7.57    34.89     0.30     5.61    79.18    25.11P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          22   38   +2      71.93     7.79     3.13     0.04     0.56    35.43     5.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.36     7.29    13.27     0.00     0.23    28.78     5.78P    0.04R    0.00  
MK_Dons          24   36   +0      67.47     7.16     1.55     0.00     0.08    15.67     2.42P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.47     7.48    -6.54     0.00     0.03     8.90     1.12P    0.43R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.71     7.95     7.09     0.01     0.12    16.10     3.04P    0.32R    0.00  
Hartlepool       24   30   -1      59.08     7.23    -3.23     0.00     0.00     2.18     0.30P    2.08R    0.02  
Brentford        24   30   -4      58.24     7.08    -6.32     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.29P    2.59R    0.01  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.68     6.95    -8.54     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.13P    3.88R    0.05  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.55     7.34    26.53     0.00     0.03    15.53     4.28P    0.19R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.16     7.34    -4.24     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.18P    4.03R    0.06  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.77     7.65    -9.38     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.26P    5.07R    0.08  
Gillingham       24   26   -5      53.14     7.17   -10.00     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P   10.82R    0.22  
Exeter           24   26   -9      50.97     7.09   -17.09     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   18.19R    0.44  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.46     7.30   -16.25     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   17.34R    0.45  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.20     6.97   -26.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   37.14R    1.71  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.76     6.95   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   33.61R    1.48  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.93     6.60   -43.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.83R   14.00  
Wycombe          25   18  -22      36.49     6.31   -39.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.95R   26.74  
Stockport        23   14  -26      32.96     6.60   -49.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.43R   54.75  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Bournemouth vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.13     6.69    57.78    74.94    97.84    99.97    98.56P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          24   46   +4      77.57     7.26     6.16     1.12    20.71    75.01    31.90P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.61     7.91    29.73     8.13    60.52    93.63    70.40P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   38   +5      69.62     7.02     9.23     0.07     3.19    35.51    11.01P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.07     7.26    54.28    14.18    75.43    97.50    84.90P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   37   +7      71.25     7.67    10.73     0.22     6.76    44.39    15.79P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      76.07     8.07    21.21     1.04    18.78    69.08    32.84P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   -1      68.86     7.72     0.74     0.07     3.37    31.63     8.86P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   35   +3      68.41     7.69     5.08     0.04     3.10    30.69     9.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.77     7.39    12.36     0.03     3.10    33.61    10.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.36     8.14     7.06     0.13     4.78    35.98    11.83P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                23   30   -1      61.61     7.53    -2.21     0.01     0.41     8.83     2.18P    0.11R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.68     7.45   -11.67     0.00     0.13     3.29     0.73P    0.35R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.20     7.94     1.43     0.01     0.59    11.16     3.39P    0.04R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   29   +0      63.47     7.93     1.73     0.01     0.89    13.94     3.87P    0.06R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.69     7.30    -0.19     0.00     0.15     6.39     1.60P    0.07R    0.00  
Barnet               23   28   -5      55.73     7.45   -10.73     0.00     0.04     1.92     0.43P    0.62R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.28     7.74   -11.25     0.00     0.06     2.49     0.56P    0.61R    0.00  
Torquay              23   25   -1      56.22     7.70    -2.29     0.00     0.07     2.53     0.71P    0.61R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      56.06     7.81    -9.33     0.00     0.06     2.30     0.55P    0.78R    0.00  
Cheltenham           24   24  -11      49.29     7.07   -19.71     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    3.59R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         22   22  -14      43.62     7.02   -29.51     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   15.46R    0.18  
Grimsby              24   18  -20      34.76     6.08   -42.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.81R    2.27  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.74     5.09   -77.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   97.54  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      94.02     6.13    44.80    20.32    98.76    47.32P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.35     6.81    52.39    74.63    99.81    82.41P    0.00     0.00  
York               25   49  +15      87.44     6.77    30.08     3.72    88.29    23.67P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      73.83     7.01    11.22     0.04    21.68     3.20P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.40     6.47    37.35     0.52    61.03    16.85P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.90     6.95    22.31     0.32    49.32    10.94P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.44     7.55    19.74     0.40    46.41     9.35P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.26     7.17    14.99     0.03    17.31     3.08P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.14     6.80    13.46     0.02     9.23     1.74P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.21     6.38    -9.07     0.00     0.43     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.43     7.19     0.86     0.00     1.87     0.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      26   33   +6      63.20     6.75    10.59     0.00     1.27     0.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         23   32   +4      65.52     7.51     7.65     0.00     3.98     0.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    26   32   -7      56.32     6.64   -12.40     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.10R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      54.04     6.52    -9.42     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.25R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.93     7.03   -17.74     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.74R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      57.81     7.81    -2.15     0.00     0.47     0.09P    0.16R    0.00  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      48.01     6.54   -13.55     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.60R    0.04  
Gateshead          25   22  -12      45.95     6.83   -20.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.18R    0.07  
Eastbourne_Boro    26   22  -18      39.50     5.88   -33.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.56R    0.85  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   21  -25      38.41     5.87   -37.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.73R    1.36  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      38.78     6.35   -38.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.89R    1.58  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.63     5.22   -51.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.13R   18.07  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.64     6.76   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.65R   78.03  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1