Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 6 January 2010 at 22:18:25 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 January 2010, Stoke vs Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         20   45  +29      84.58     5.48    56.13    46.53    77.92    94.40    98.59    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         20   43  +27      79.88     5.79    48.80    16.00    42.44    79.55    92.73    99.24     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         19   41  +30      83.06     5.54    64.81    35.98    71.05    91.69    97.50    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       20   37  +20      71.24     6.02    37.29     0.99     5.32    18.74    52.23    88.46     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        19   35  +11      67.27     6.54    21.77     0.30     1.73     7.42    24.67    68.60     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.37     6.20    21.41     0.16     1.01     4.93    18.52    64.74     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   33  +12      64.94     6.06    24.28     0.04     0.52     2.97    13.54    56.84     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      20   32   +2      57.76     6.32     4.15     0.00     0.02     0.24     1.62    14.11     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          20   27   +4      55.06     6.23     8.73     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.56     7.49     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke           20   24   -7      44.85     6.22   -12.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.21     3.13R    0.35  
Sunderland      20   23   -3      46.02     6.19    -7.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.35     1.99R    0.21  
Everton         19   22   -6      43.73     6.30   -15.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.18     4.90R    0.65  
Blackburn       20   21  -15      38.42     5.78   -28.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.67R    4.32  
Burnley         20   20  -18      36.59     5.71   -35.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.35R    8.41  
Wolverhampton   20   19  -19      34.61     5.58   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.17R   14.63  
Wigan           19   19  -23      37.32     6.11   -39.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    29.99R    8.50  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.58     5.90   -15.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    11.16R    2.06  
Bolton          18   18  -10      37.08     6.20   -31.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    29.81R    8.22  
Hull            20   18  -22      32.42     5.52   -41.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.95R   26.63  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.19     5.81   -25.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.85R   26.00  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 December 2009, Barnsley vs Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.12     6.71    46.94    65.62    90.72    99.92    94.23P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        23   45  +26      90.29     7.25    49.36    27.18    70.92    99.01    80.37P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     24   43  +16      83.14     7.09    30.87     5.10    23.32    93.74    47.65P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          23   37  +15      77.40     7.53    29.70     1.29     8.07    77.44    26.47P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   37   +4      71.22     7.92     6.34     0.25     1.82    44.06     9.53P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea          24   37   +2      67.12     7.11     3.17     0.02     0.28    22.66     5.07P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   35   +2      66.69     7.32     4.04     0.03     0.31    22.34     4.04P    0.12R    0.01  
Blackpool        22   34  +10      73.46     8.02    20.05     0.47     3.94    58.40    16.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   34   +1      64.38     7.35     1.66     0.01     0.15    14.58     2.92P    0.26R    0.01  
QPR              24   33   +2      64.44     7.40     3.86     0.01     0.14    15.43     2.83P    0.34R    0.04  
Middlesbrough    24   32   +5      64.03     7.23     7.78     0.01     0.10    14.18     3.08P    0.27R    0.02  
Bristol_City     24   32   +0      61.49     7.40    -0.67     0.00     0.03     8.05     1.54P    0.82R    0.05  
Watford          24   32   -4      60.92     7.46    -6.54     0.00     0.03     6.86     1.09P    1.21R    0.10  
Doncaster        23   30   +2      62.30     7.69     3.51     0.00     0.10    10.96     2.34P    0.75R    0.07  
Barnsley         22   30   -5      59.90     7.84   -10.50     0.00     0.04     6.16     0.85P    2.24R    0.23  
Preston          23   29   -3      59.07     7.62    -4.88     0.00     0.02     4.70     0.89P    2.22R    0.22  
Coventry         24   28   -9      53.34     7.10   -16.62     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.10P    9.72R    1.39  
Derby            24   26  -11      49.51     6.98   -20.96     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   21.84R    4.52  
Ipswich          23   24   -7      51.72     7.50   -13.01     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.10P   14.79R    2.96  
Reading          24   23  -13      45.85     7.00   -25.47     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   40.65R   12.31  
Scunthorpe       23   23  -19      45.04     7.11   -36.18     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   47.38R   16.32  
Plymouth         23   21  -13      44.89     7.26   -24.02     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   46.11R   15.50  
Sheff_Wed        23   19  -14      42.55     7.23   -28.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    58.79R   25.53  
Peterborough     24   18  -12      43.41     7.29   -20.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   52.42R   20.70  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Hartlepool vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     23   56  +32     105.88     6.64    60.54    89.02    97.11   100.00    98.20P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          24   48  +24      89.50     6.99    43.48     4.13    35.67    97.92    53.74P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.38     7.09    36.77     2.99    28.42    96.98    46.40P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      89.06     7.18    37.91     3.56    32.30    97.35    53.09P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      80.02     7.58    34.93     0.27     5.51    79.20    25.14P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          22   38   +2      71.80     7.68     2.89     0.04     0.54    34.61     5.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.48     7.24    13.49     0.00     0.22    29.29     5.96P    0.02R    0.00  
MK_Dons          24   36   +0      67.60     7.18     1.78     0.00     0.06    16.14     2.40P    0.08R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.44     7.56    -6.56     0.00     0.03     8.90     1.08P    0.44R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.58     7.86     6.90     0.00     0.10    15.70     2.89P    0.27R    0.00  
Hartlepool       24   30   -1      59.43     7.23    -2.73     0.00     0.00     2.46     0.35P    1.88R    0.02  
Brentford        24   30   -4      58.24     7.03    -6.36     0.00     0.00     1.43     0.25P    2.37R    0.01  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.69     6.95    -8.62     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.16P    3.83R    0.03  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.67     7.22    26.73     0.00     0.04    15.36     4.34P    0.12R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.28     7.37    -4.08     0.00     0.00     1.36     0.20P    3.95R    0.05  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.83     7.65    -9.16     0.00     0.00     1.66     0.28P    5.05R    0.06  
Gillingham       24   26   -5      53.01     7.16   -10.23     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P   10.87R    0.19  
Exeter           24   26   -9      50.70     7.05   -17.50     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   18.82R    0.52  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.57     7.30   -16.21     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   16.53R    0.46  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.04     6.85   -26.59     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    37.82R    1.58  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.87     6.93   -24.27     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   32.93R    1.31  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.87     6.55   -43.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.25R   13.75  
Wycombe          25   18  -22      36.33     6.31   -39.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.33R   27.32  
Stockport        23   14  -26      32.93     6.63   -49.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.45R   54.70  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Bournemouth vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.21     6.63    57.75    75.32    97.99    99.96    98.70P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          24   46   +4      77.40     7.25     5.82     1.11    19.92    74.06    30.56P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.62     7.99    29.72     8.10    60.40    93.20    70.17P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   38   +5      69.69     7.11     9.37     0.05     3.51    35.95    11.60P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      86.91     7.32    54.10    13.76    74.61    97.28    84.18P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   37   +7      71.51     7.66    11.10     0.21     7.10    46.21    16.63P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      76.24     8.07    21.46     1.06    19.59    69.75    33.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   -1      68.48     7.77     0.18     0.07     3.28    29.93     8.58P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         23   35   +3      68.38     7.70     5.06     0.07     3.13    30.00     9.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.80     7.41    12.36     0.05     3.12    33.66    10.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.65     8.08     7.56     0.16     5.05    37.17    12.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe                23   30   -1      61.77     7.49    -1.99     0.00     0.41     8.96     2.22P    0.08R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.62     7.32   -11.80     0.00     0.08     3.04     0.66P    0.28R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.19     7.98     1.34     0.00     0.65    11.02     3.32P    0.05R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   29   +0      63.16     7.86     1.22     0.01     0.71    13.20     3.50P    0.07R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.95     7.36     0.25     0.00     0.19     7.08     1.75P    0.06R    0.00  
Barnet               23   28   -5      55.83     7.40   -10.56     0.00     0.06     1.91     0.44P    0.60R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.29     7.76   -11.29     0.00     0.09     2.74     0.65P    0.64R    0.00  
Torquay              23   25   -1      56.26     7.75    -2.21     0.00     0.08     2.55     0.77P    0.60R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      55.96     7.74    -9.49     0.00     0.05     2.16     0.49P    0.77R    0.00  
Cheltenham           24   24  -11      49.31     7.03   -19.63     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    3.72R    0.02  
Lincoln_City         22   22  -14      43.41     6.92   -29.84     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   16.26R    0.13  
Grimsby              24   18  -20      34.85     6.09   -42.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.98R    2.22  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.69     5.06   -77.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   97.64  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      93.97     6.15    44.73    20.68    98.67    47.60P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.12     6.87    51.98    73.84    99.76    81.62P    0.00     0.00  
York               25   49  +15      87.33     6.88    29.91     4.07    87.67    23.39P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      73.78     6.98    11.26     0.05    21.30     3.20P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.40     6.44    37.36     0.48    61.60    16.93P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.89     6.93    22.26     0.31    49.68    11.14P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.41     7.55    19.67     0.50    45.84     9.64P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.51     7.09    15.44     0.04    17.81     3.21P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.13     6.76    13.48     0.01     9.13     1.69P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.21     6.33    -9.13     0.00     0.41     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.52     7.25     1.00     0.00     2.07     0.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      26   33   +6      63.15     6.78    10.43     0.00     1.21     0.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         23   32   +4      65.70     7.52     7.95     0.00     4.13     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    26   32   -7      56.45     6.69   -12.18     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.08R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      54.07     6.39    -9.37     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.16R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.85     7.00   -17.83     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.68R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      57.83     7.90    -2.18     0.00     0.56     0.11P    0.22R    0.00  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      47.92     6.55   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.89R    0.03  
Gateshead          25   22  -12      45.83     6.87   -20.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.49R    0.08  
Eastbourne_Boro    26   22  -18      39.23     5.86   -34.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.01R    0.87  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   21  -25      38.66     5.90   -37.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.97R    1.20  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      38.82     6.46   -38.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.38R    1.51  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.75     5.22   -51.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.40R   17.59  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.53     6.77   -19.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.70R   78.72  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1