Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 5 January 2010 at 22:18:25 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 January 2010, Stoke vs Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         20   45  +29      84.66     5.48    56.28    46.94    77.77    94.34    98.45    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         20   43  +27      79.93     5.75    48.91    15.80    42.67    79.81    92.83    99.31     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         19   41  +30      83.07     5.56    64.84    35.86    71.10    91.81    97.40    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       20   37  +20      71.20     5.98    37.29     0.94     5.14    18.51    51.85    88.31     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        19   35  +11      67.35     6.50    21.93     0.30     1.81     7.24    24.79    68.98     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.51     6.20    21.70     0.11     1.00     4.97    18.84    65.71     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   33  +12      64.91     6.10    24.27     0.05     0.49     3.01    13.68    56.42     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      20   32   +2      57.62     6.30     4.02     0.00     0.02     0.25     1.59    13.41     0.01R    0.00  
Fulham          20   27   +4      55.08     6.18     8.72     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.57     7.33     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke           20   24   -7      44.76     6.26   -12.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     3.37R    0.33  
Sunderland      20   23   -3      46.11     6.16    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.37     1.89R    0.21  
Everton         19   22   -6      43.54     6.32   -15.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.18     5.41R    0.79  
Blackburn       20   21  -15      38.47     5.78   -28.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.56R    4.20  
Burnley         20   20  -18      36.44     5.68   -35.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.87R    8.91  
Wolverhampton   20   19  -19      34.66     5.62   -34.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.60R   14.26  
Wigan           19   19  -23      37.28     6.17   -39.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    30.51R    8.66  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.74     5.90   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    10.85R    1.95  
Bolton          18   18  -10      37.05     6.21   -31.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    29.88R    7.91  
Hull            20   18  -22      32.24     5.48   -41.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.98R   27.64  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.35     5.80   -25.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.05R   25.16  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 December 2009, Barnsley vs Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.22     6.75    47.05    66.04    91.07    99.91    94.60P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        23   45  +26      90.33     7.18    49.31    27.05    71.29    99.06    80.80P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     24   43  +16      82.95     7.09    30.55     4.59    22.29    93.23    46.18P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          23   37  +15      77.49     7.60    29.93     1.46     8.47    77.52    27.34P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   37   +4      71.02     7.94     6.02     0.20     1.70    42.97     9.15P    0.03R    0.00  
Swansea          24   37   +2      67.26     7.13     3.35     0.03     0.33    23.48     5.27P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   35   +2      66.91     7.28     4.39     0.02     0.33    23.17     4.28P    0.08R    0.00  
Blackpool        22   34  +10      73.46     8.03    20.14     0.57     3.90    58.20    16.99P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   34   +1      64.52     7.36     1.89     0.01     0.15    15.01     2.93P    0.23R    0.01  
QPR              24   33   +2      64.40     7.35     3.75     0.01     0.14    15.15     2.67P    0.28R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    24   32   +5      63.98     7.24     7.73     0.01     0.10    14.22     3.10P    0.28R    0.02  
Bristol_City     24   32   +0      61.45     7.40    -0.73     0.00     0.05     7.76     1.45P    0.84R    0.05  
Watford          24   32   -4      60.71     7.43    -6.88     0.00     0.02     6.39     0.88P    1.34R    0.14  
Doncaster        23   30   +2      62.32     7.69     3.53     0.00     0.07    11.03     2.28P    0.77R    0.05  
Barnsley         22   30   -5      59.83     7.90   -10.60     0.01     0.05     6.21     0.92P    2.43R    0.26  
Preston          23   29   -3      59.36     7.60    -4.40     0.01     0.03     5.13     0.93P    1.98R    0.21  
Coventry         24   28   -9      53.27     7.14   -16.68     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.09P    9.81R    1.51  
Derby            24   26  -11      49.46     7.01   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P   22.02R    4.68  
Ipswich          23   24   -7      51.96     7.54   -12.65     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.11P   14.08R    2.73  
Reading          24   23  -13      45.96     7.02   -25.32     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   39.87R   11.73  
Scunthorpe       23   23  -19      45.15     7.08   -35.89     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   46.32R   15.40  
Plymouth         23   21  -13      44.68     7.27   -24.34     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   46.98R   16.01  
Sheff_Wed        23   19  -14      42.30     7.25   -28.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   60.10R   26.60  
Peterborough     24   18  -12      43.32     7.27   -20.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    52.51R   20.59  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Hartlepool vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     23   56  +32     106.00     6.61    60.57    88.93    97.08   100.00    98.25P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          24   48  +24      89.67     6.92    43.71     4.06    36.14    98.23    54.50P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.62     7.05    37.19     3.28    28.93    97.17    47.40P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      88.93     7.18    37.78     3.41    31.43    97.40    51.49P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      79.95     7.61    34.80     0.30     5.44    79.08    25.23P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          22   38   +2      71.91     7.76     3.13     0.01     0.57    35.26     5.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.28     7.27    13.17     0.01     0.24    28.35     5.78P    0.03R    0.00  
MK_Dons          24   36   +0      67.47     7.23     1.54     0.00     0.03    16.14     2.40P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.57     7.49    -6.30     0.00     0.02     9.00     1.09P    0.37R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.68     7.95     7.08     0.00     0.10    16.43     3.12P    0.26R    0.00  
Hartlepool       24   30   -1      59.28     7.20    -2.89     0.00     0.00     2.31     0.37P    1.86R    0.01  
Brentford        24   30   -4      58.09     7.04    -6.54     0.00     0.00     1.44     0.23P    2.60R    0.01  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.57     6.95    -8.80     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.12P    4.11R    0.03  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.56     7.21    26.57     0.00     0.02    14.94     4.12P    0.13R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.29     7.38    -4.10     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.22P    3.91R    0.03  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.62     7.61    -9.51     0.00     0.00     1.37     0.23P    5.55R    0.08  
Gillingham       24   26   -5      53.29     7.14    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P   10.10R    0.18  
Exeter           24   26   -9      50.82     7.06   -17.26     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   18.54R    0.43  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.67     7.28   -16.04     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   16.05R    0.51  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.07     6.92   -26.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    37.58R    1.68  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.69     6.92   -24.56     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   33.76R    1.47  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.66     6.53   -44.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.91R   14.72  
Wycombe          25   18  -22      36.50     6.33   -39.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.91R   26.53  
Stockport        23   14  -26      33.00     6.62   -49.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.24R   54.33  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Bournemouth vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.12     6.67    57.69    74.55    97.76    99.95    98.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          24   46   +4      77.25     7.25     5.62     0.96    19.56    73.04    30.24P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.62     8.00    29.68     8.55    60.31    93.19    69.89P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   38   +5      69.86     7.09     9.62     0.08     3.51    36.66    11.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.19     7.26    54.59    14.27    75.57    97.54    84.92P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   37   +7      71.45     7.63    11.04     0.19     6.82    45.61    16.20P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      76.22     8.04    21.49     1.04    19.41    70.06    33.90P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   -1      68.72     7.77     0.45     0.08     3.38    30.96     8.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   35   +3      68.46     7.71     5.14     0.07     3.14    30.25     9.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.73     7.43    12.19     0.04     3.13    33.08    10.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.54     8.13     7.37     0.17     5.03    36.56    12.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe                23   30   -1      61.95     7.58    -1.60     0.00     0.44     9.55     2.40P    0.10R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.47     7.45   -12.19     0.00     0.11     3.06     0.68P    0.36R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.23     8.02     1.43     0.00     0.67    11.71     3.61P    0.05R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   29   +0      63.03     7.84     1.00     0.02     0.73    12.69     3.50P    0.05R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.70     7.32    -0.17     0.00     0.20     6.45     1.60P    0.10R    0.00  
Barnet               23   28   -5      55.92     7.44   -10.42     0.00     0.06     2.01     0.50P    0.52R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.32     7.85   -11.23     0.00     0.08     2.78     0.61P    0.70R    0.00  
Torquay              23   25   -1      56.20     7.72    -2.37     0.00     0.05     2.49     0.64P    0.59R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      55.76     7.87    -9.79     0.00     0.05     2.19     0.52P    0.90R    0.00  
Cheltenham           24   24  -11      49.28     7.08   -19.69     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    3.92R    0.03  
Lincoln_City         22   22  -14      43.65     6.93   -29.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   15.32R    0.14  
Grimsby              24   18  -20      34.87     6.05   -42.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.53R    2.22  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.68     5.11   -77.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.84R   97.60  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      94.08     6.17    44.89    20.83    98.77    47.76P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.32     6.88    52.36    74.28    99.81    82.44P    0.00     0.00  
York               25   49  +15      87.21     6.81    29.72     3.60    87.59    22.82P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      73.87     6.98    11.35     0.05    22.09     3.35P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.37     6.44    37.26     0.48    61.58    17.41P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.74     6.86    22.06     0.27    48.59    10.58P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.31     7.56    19.54     0.43    45.63     9.14P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.53     7.12    15.44     0.05    18.07     3.34P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.34     6.74    13.80     0.01     9.66     1.77P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.15     6.36    -9.23     0.00     0.45     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.41     7.31     0.84     0.00     2.09     0.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      26   33   +6      63.10     6.77    10.33     0.00     1.17     0.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         23   32   +4      65.34     7.51     7.35     0.00     3.83     0.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    26   32   -7      56.29     6.64   -12.45     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.09R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      53.99     6.48    -9.40     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.26R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.70     7.08   -17.99     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.76R    0.01  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      58.02     7.85    -1.87     0.00     0.52     0.08P    0.16R    0.00  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      48.13     6.58   -13.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.66R    0.04  
Gateshead          25   22  -12      45.80     6.83   -20.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.57R    0.08  
Eastbourne_Boro    26   22  -18      39.42     5.89   -33.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.17R    0.91  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   21  -25      38.48     5.94   -37.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.86R    1.41  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      38.92     6.43   -38.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.57R    1.74  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.81     5.24   -51.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.38R   17.86  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.73     6.79   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.50R   77.96  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1