Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 4 January 2010 at 22:18:23 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 December 2009, Man_Utd vs Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         20   45  +29      84.74     5.48    56.41    47.42    78.46    94.62    98.61    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         20   43  +27      79.61     5.84    48.28    14.50    40.81    77.81    91.67    99.08     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         19   41  +30      83.16     5.53    65.14    36.58    71.89    91.86    97.58    99.76     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       20   37  +20      71.20     5.99    37.32     1.01     5.42    19.10    51.38    87.95     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        19   35  +11      67.56     6.48    22.44     0.28     1.82     8.00    25.68    69.06     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.56     6.19    21.79     0.14     0.98     4.99    18.85    64.32     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   33  +12      64.87     6.16    24.14     0.07     0.58     3.26    13.41    54.45     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      20   32   +2      57.59     6.25     3.92     0.00     0.02     0.19     1.37    12.44     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          19   27   +5      56.95     6.50    10.65     0.00     0.01     0.17     1.43    12.45     0.00R    0.00  
Sunderland      20   23   -3      45.90     6.16    -7.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     2.05R    0.20  
Everton         19   22   -6      43.53     6.30   -15.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17     5.21R    0.77  
Stoke           19   21   -8      42.05     6.38   -14.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     8.17R    1.39  
Blackburn       20   21  -15      38.44     5.74   -28.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.33R    4.30  
Burnley         20   20  -18      36.61     5.68   -35.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.57R    8.46  
Wolverhampton   20   19  -19      34.81     5.61   -34.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.86R   13.61  
Wigan           19   19  -23      37.22     6.11   -40.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.68R    8.81  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.71     5.84   -15.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    10.44R    1.97  
Bolton          18   18  -10      37.10     6.14   -31.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    29.34R    7.92  
Hull            20   18  -22      32.33     5.49   -41.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.95R   27.28  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.32     5.82   -25.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.39R   25.31  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 December 2009, Barnsley vs Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.22     6.73    47.06    65.50    90.75    99.95    94.35P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        23   45  +26      90.54     7.16    49.70    27.48    72.11    99.15    81.42P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     24   43  +16      83.10     7.12    30.81     4.88    22.51    93.75    46.86P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          23   37  +15      77.42     7.63    29.78     1.35     8.28    77.31    27.06P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   37   +4      71.20     7.99     6.29     0.19     1.71    43.96     9.62P    0.05R    0.00  
Swansea          24   37   +2      67.31     7.08     3.42     0.01     0.31    23.62     5.30P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   35   +2      66.68     7.30     3.99     0.02     0.28    22.50     4.12P    0.11R    0.00  
Blackpool        22   34  +10      73.11     8.05    19.57     0.53     3.48    56.68    15.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   34   +1      64.35     7.40     1.62     0.01     0.16    14.62     2.71P    0.24R    0.02  
QPR              24   33   +2      64.41     7.40     3.78     0.01     0.12    15.41     2.73P    0.30R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    24   32   +5      64.19     7.29     8.07     0.01     0.10    15.33     3.22P    0.23R    0.01  
Bristol_City     24   32   +0      61.46     7.36    -0.70     0.01     0.04     7.59     1.37P    0.77R    0.04  
Watford          24   32   -4      60.77     7.37    -6.80     0.00     0.02     6.50     0.97P    1.23R    0.09  
Doncaster        23   30   +2      62.41     7.68     3.66     0.00     0.07    11.17     2.41P    0.75R    0.06  
Barnsley         22   30   -5      59.76     7.82   -10.70     0.00     0.04     5.99     0.88P    2.41R    0.27  
Preston          23   29   -3      59.23     7.61    -4.62     0.00     0.03     4.90     0.90P    2.21R    0.23  
Coventry         24   28   -9      53.16     7.10   -16.90     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.09P   10.17R    1.48  
Derby            24   26  -11      49.42     7.00   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   22.33R    4.62  
Ipswich          23   24   -7      51.83     7.54   -12.88     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.12P   14.58R    2.95  
Reading          24   23  -13      45.97     7.03   -25.32     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   39.84R   11.99  
Scunthorpe       23   23  -19      45.21     7.08   -35.77     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   46.24R   15.48  
Plymouth         23   21  -13      44.81     7.33   -24.15     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   46.46R   15.98  
Sheff_Wed        23   19  -14      42.56     7.26   -28.12     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   58.66R   25.62  
Peterborough     24   18  -12      43.21     7.21   -20.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    53.39R   21.12  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Hartlepool vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     23   56  +32     106.00     6.68    60.59    88.90    97.01   100.00    98.17P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          24   48  +24      89.52     6.97    43.43     4.14    35.80    97.90    54.04P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.38     7.07    36.82     3.05    28.45    96.99    46.33P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      89.05     7.21    37.92     3.59    32.31    97.37    52.71P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      79.91     7.58    34.73     0.29     5.43    79.11    25.12P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          22   38   +2      72.11     7.74     3.45     0.02     0.58    36.01     5.87P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.39     7.25    13.39     0.00     0.20    28.67     5.89P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons          24   36   +0      67.51     7.11     1.63     0.00     0.05    15.62     2.48P    0.07R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.40     7.53    -6.64     0.00     0.02     8.77     1.11P    0.45R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.74     7.88     7.16     0.00     0.12    16.29     2.93P    0.23R    0.00  
Hartlepool       24   30   -1      59.34     7.25    -2.81     0.00     0.00     2.34     0.34P    1.94R    0.01  
Brentford        24   30   -4      58.16     7.12    -6.42     0.00     0.00     1.56     0.26P    2.65R    0.02  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.54     6.99    -8.81     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.15P    4.20R    0.03  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.56     7.22    26.57     0.00     0.03    14.95     4.06P    0.19R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.28     7.38    -4.03     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.17P    3.81R    0.05  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.78     7.65    -9.31     0.00     0.00     1.56     0.24P    5.10R    0.05  
Gillingham       24   26   -5      53.16     7.15    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.07P   10.57R    0.22  
Exeter           24   26   -9      50.74     7.02   -17.45     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   18.80R    0.45  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.60     7.20   -16.16     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   16.33R    0.46  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.05     6.91   -26.50     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   37.73R    1.72  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.74     6.92   -24.49     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   33.35R    1.43  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.91     6.59   -43.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.83R   13.83  
Wycombe          25   18  -22      36.37     6.32   -39.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.16R   27.24  
Stockport        23   14  -26      32.96     6.61   -49.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.58R   54.47  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Bournemouth vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.01     6.74    57.52    74.50    97.66    99.95    98.45P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          24   46   +4      77.40     7.21     5.86     1.13    19.92    73.82    30.70P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.40     7.88    29.30     8.05    59.83    93.18    69.60P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   38   +5      69.51     7.06     9.03     0.04     3.16    35.02    10.68P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.27     7.25    54.68    14.73    76.66    97.54    85.64P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   37   +7      71.58     7.65    11.26     0.22     7.18    46.85    16.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      76.07     7.99    21.20     1.02    18.89    69.37    32.91P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   -1      68.63     7.70     0.37     0.08     3.16    30.61     8.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   35   +3      68.30     7.70     4.94     0.07     3.04    29.89     9.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.95     7.39    12.61     0.03     3.27    34.17    10.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.36     8.10     7.06     0.13     4.75    35.94    11.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                23   30   -1      61.83     7.54    -1.78     0.00     0.47     9.19     2.35P    0.10R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.62     7.52   -11.90     0.00     0.12     3.37     0.81P    0.32R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.23     8.01     1.45     0.00     0.66    11.32     3.46P    0.06R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   29   +0      63.29     7.89     1.49     0.01     0.77    13.46     3.83P    0.08R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.68     7.33    -0.17     0.00     0.20     6.52     1.71P    0.08R    0.00  
Barnet               23   28   -5      55.72     7.48   -10.69     0.00     0.05     1.82     0.41P    0.61R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.52     7.83   -10.90     0.00     0.08     2.90     0.71P    0.64R    0.00  
Torquay              23   25   -1      56.16     7.70    -2.38     0.00     0.06     2.62     0.70P    0.61R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      55.98     7.79    -9.39     0.00     0.06     2.31     0.54P    0.72R    0.01  
Cheltenham           24   24  -11      49.31     7.12   -19.66     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    3.80R    0.03  
Lincoln_City         22   22  -14      43.68     6.95   -29.49     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.97R    0.16  
Grimsby              24   18  -20      34.67     6.03   -42.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.20R    2.64  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.94     5.22   -77.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.81R   97.16  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      94.12     6.16    44.90    20.22    98.74    47.49P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.56     6.85    52.73    75.01    99.85    82.99P    0.00     0.00  
York               25   49  +15      87.40     6.76    30.07     3.64    88.50    23.23P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      73.76     7.08    11.19     0.05    21.96     3.38P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.35     6.45    37.27     0.42    61.63    16.87P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.77     6.87    22.12     0.25    48.86    10.82P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.17     7.49    19.29     0.36    44.79     8.86P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.30     7.14    15.07     0.04    17.62     3.05P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.23     6.71    13.62     0.01     9.42     1.69P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.26     6.37    -8.99     0.00     0.42     0.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.58     7.26     1.05     0.00     2.19     0.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      26   33   +6      63.13     6.78    10.42     0.00     1.20     0.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         23   32   +4      65.59     7.52     7.75     0.00     4.18     0.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    26   32   -7      56.29     6.59   -12.48     0.00     0.06     0.00P    0.09R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      53.89     6.42    -9.59     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.22R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.85     7.07   -17.84     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.80R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      57.67     7.76    -2.34     0.00     0.53     0.08P    0.16R    0.00  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      48.08     6.58   -13.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.80R    0.02  
Gateshead          25   22  -12      45.93     6.92   -20.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.72R    0.09  
Eastbourne_Boro    26   22  -18      39.43     5.92   -33.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.13R    0.88  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   21  -25      38.54     5.88   -37.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.92R    1.33  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      38.90     6.44   -38.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.45R    1.69  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.66     5.17   -51.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.06R   17.96  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.60     6.87   -18.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.62R   78.03  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1