Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 3 January 2010 at 22:18:14 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 December 2009, Man_Utd vs Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         20   45  +29      84.57     5.52    56.18    46.70    77.45    94.16    98.44    99.89     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         20   43  +27      79.86     5.80    48.70    15.79    42.71    79.28    92.61    99.20     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         19   41  +30      83.01     5.53    64.79    36.03    71.02    91.52    97.42    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       20   37  +20      71.24     5.99    37.40     0.95     5.40    19.02    51.73    87.84     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        19   35  +11      67.37     6.47    22.12     0.30     1.85     7.51    24.55    67.79     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.61     6.10    21.88     0.16     0.95     4.97    18.90    65.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   33  +12      64.97     6.13    24.34     0.06     0.60     3.16    13.54    55.20     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      20   32   +2      57.58     6.25     3.91     0.00     0.02     0.20     1.46    12.35     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          19   27   +5      56.96     6.44    10.62     0.00     0.01     0.18     1.34    12.32     0.01R    0.00  
Sunderland      20   23   -3      45.95     6.15    -7.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.29     1.94R    0.23  
Everton         19   22   -6      43.58     6.29   -15.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     5.28R    0.68  
Stoke           19   21   -8      42.05     6.28   -14.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     7.99R    1.10  
Blackburn       20   21  -15      38.53     5.86   -27.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.24R    4.22  
Burnley         20   20  -18      36.42     5.68   -35.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.38R    8.66  
Wolverhampton   20   19  -19      34.70     5.58   -34.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.71R   14.29  
Wigan           19   19  -23      37.45     6.16   -39.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    28.87R    8.21  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.77     5.89   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    10.59R    2.02  
Bolton          18   18  -10      37.01     6.19   -31.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    29.69R    8.17  
Hull            20   18  -22      32.42     5.52   -41.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.16R   26.74  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.16     5.78   -25.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.14R   25.68  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 December 2009, Barnsley vs Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.09     6.76    46.90    65.30    90.86    99.90    94.26P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        23   45  +26      90.45     7.22    49.55    27.54    71.50    99.06    81.15P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     24   43  +16      83.00     7.12    30.66     4.89    22.61    93.27    46.77P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          23   37  +15      77.52     7.55    29.89     1.40     8.27    77.93    27.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   37   +4      71.10     7.95     6.16     0.24     1.87    43.52     9.48P    0.04R    0.00  
Swansea          24   37   +2      67.10     7.12     3.18     0.03     0.28    22.95     5.04P    0.06R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   35   +2      66.81     7.34     4.17     0.02     0.30    23.20     4.25P    0.08R    0.00  
Blackpool        22   34  +10      73.20     8.06    19.71     0.52     3.67    57.05    16.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   34   +1      64.51     7.36     1.84     0.01     0.14    15.33     3.09P    0.22R    0.01  
QPR              24   33   +2      64.27     7.38     3.56     0.01     0.13    14.88     2.71P    0.32R    0.03  
Middlesbrough    24   32   +5      64.18     7.26     8.05     0.01     0.14    14.84     3.23P    0.24R    0.01  
Bristol_City     24   32   +0      61.51     7.43    -0.70     0.00     0.06     8.09     1.53P    0.82R    0.07  
Watford          24   32   -4      60.71     7.43    -6.89     0.00     0.02     6.58     1.01P    1.43R    0.12  
Doncaster        23   30   +2      62.22     7.64     3.39     0.01     0.08    10.50     2.25P    0.71R    0.07  
Barnsley         22   30   -5      59.95     7.88   -10.42     0.00     0.04     6.24     0.89P    2.26R    0.28  
Preston          23   29   -3      59.19     7.62    -4.70     0.00     0.03     5.10     0.90P    2.20R    0.22  
Coventry         24   28   -9      53.25     7.09   -16.79     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.10P   10.02R    1.47  
Derby            24   26  -11      49.47     7.01   -20.99     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P   22.31R    4.75  
Ipswich          23   24   -7      51.98     7.55   -12.65     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.10P   14.27R    2.90  
Reading          24   23  -13      46.03     6.99   -25.16     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   39.65R   11.48  
Scunthorpe       23   23  -19      45.21     7.12   -35.78     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   46.40R   15.72  
Plymouth         23   21  -13      44.53     7.25   -24.64     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   47.95R   17.08  
Sheff_Wed        23   19  -14      42.65     7.25   -27.92     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   58.37R   25.07  
Peterborough     24   18  -12      43.37     7.26   -20.44     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   52.64R   20.71  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Hartlepool vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     23   56  +32     105.85     6.65    60.39    88.30    96.90   100.00    98.19P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          24   48  +24      89.59     6.97    43.61     4.24    35.30    98.03    53.57P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.60     7.09    37.15     3.31    29.04    97.18    47.30P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      89.20     7.25    38.18     3.82    32.68    97.53    52.90P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      79.88     7.60    34.75     0.29     5.12    78.95    24.88P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          22   38   +2      71.99     7.68     3.20     0.03     0.56    35.68     5.40P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.37     7.23    13.34     0.01     0.23    29.07     6.12P    0.03R    0.00  
MK_Dons          24   36   +0      67.37     7.21     1.38     0.00     0.05    15.74     2.36P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.37     7.55    -6.66     0.00     0.02     8.84     1.10P    0.48R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.38     7.90     6.53     0.00     0.05    15.41     2.74P    0.29R    0.00  
Hartlepool       24   30   -1      59.46     7.25    -2.63     0.00     0.00     2.49     0.43P    1.86R    0.02  
Brentford        24   30   -4      58.07     7.03    -6.58     0.00     0.00     1.40     0.22P    2.69R    0.02  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.73     6.96    -8.55     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.16P    3.89R    0.05  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.43     7.27    26.34     0.00     0.04    15.18     4.08P    0.18R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.20     7.35    -4.21     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.17P    4.10R    0.03  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.84     7.64    -9.22     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.25P    5.27R    0.07  
Gillingham       24   26   -5      53.22     7.19    -9.88     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.08P   10.64R    0.19  
Exeter           24   26   -9      50.82     7.03   -17.31     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   18.38R    0.49  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.75     7.27   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P   16.11R    0.38  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.31     6.89   -26.20     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   36.45R    1.45  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.70     6.94   -24.49     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    34.16R    1.42  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.82     6.56   -43.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.69R   14.05  
Wycombe          25   18  -22      36.34     6.35   -39.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.07R   27.21  
Stockport        23   14  -26      32.86     6.59   -49.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.58R   54.63  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Bournemouth vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.09     6.67    57.62    74.40    97.84    99.95    98.61P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          24   46   +4      77.42     7.23     5.89     1.15    20.07    73.81    30.89P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.67     7.88    29.70     8.29    61.17    93.47    71.04P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   38   +5      69.84     7.04     9.54     0.06     3.52    36.91    11.65P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.32     7.19    54.77    14.64    76.53    97.84    85.73P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   37   +7      71.43     7.64    10.98     0.19     6.82    45.80    16.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      75.79     8.05    20.75     0.97    17.77    67.89    31.66P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   -1      68.53     7.77     0.17     0.07     3.11    30.14     8.63P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         23   35   +3      68.44     7.66     5.13     0.08     3.09    30.59     9.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.87     7.40    12.47     0.04     3.18    34.15    10.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.42     8.07     7.14     0.09     4.59    35.88    11.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                23   30   -1      61.72     7.54    -1.90     0.00     0.40     9.12     2.24P    0.07R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.93     7.40   -11.29     0.00     0.11     3.44     0.78P    0.25R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.10     7.91     1.26     0.00     0.62    10.97     3.27P    0.04R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   29   +0      63.14     7.91     1.20     0.01     0.78    13.45     3.75P    0.05R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.71     7.38    -0.13     0.00     0.18     6.65     1.76P    0.07R    0.00  
Barnet               23   28   -5      55.65     7.42   -10.76     0.00     0.04     1.85     0.45P    0.56R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.42     7.87   -11.07     0.00     0.08     2.92     0.66P    0.58R    0.00  
Torquay              23   25   -1      56.10     7.76    -2.54     0.00     0.05     2.54     0.64P    0.66R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      56.19     7.80    -9.09     0.00     0.05     2.47     0.55P    0.65R    0.00  
Cheltenham           24   24  -11      49.33     7.04   -19.66     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    3.72R    0.02  
Lincoln_City         22   22  -14      43.58     6.96   -29.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.24R    0.16  
Grimsby              24   18  -20      34.57     6.03   -42.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.24R    2.54  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.89     5.15   -77.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.86R   97.28  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      94.13     6.13    44.96    20.80    98.73    48.21P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.33     6.85    52.36    74.35    99.83    82.34P    0.00     0.00  
York               25   49  +15      87.35     6.79    29.96     3.62    87.93    23.00P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      73.61     6.97    10.94     0.04    20.65     3.05P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.34     6.44    37.19     0.44    61.02    16.31P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      79.00     6.92    22.48     0.29    49.87    11.37P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.52     7.47    19.90     0.41    46.43     9.24P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.47     7.12    15.36     0.04    17.69     3.19P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.04     6.76    13.36     0.00     8.80     1.60P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.23     6.35    -9.07     0.00     0.45     0.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.47     7.23     0.86     0.00     2.08     0.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      26   33   +6      63.25     6.81    10.69     0.00     1.43     0.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         23   32   +4      65.72     7.58     7.90     0.00     4.45     0.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    26   32   -7      56.23     6.68   -12.48     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.10R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      53.92     6.48    -9.59     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.25R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.87     7.09   -17.82     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.84R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      57.73     7.83    -2.24     0.00     0.48     0.09P    0.19R    0.00  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      47.88     6.55   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.89R    0.03  
Gateshead          25   22  -12      45.87     6.84   -20.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.29R    0.07  
Eastbourne_Boro    26   22  -18      39.49     5.95   -33.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.76R    0.93  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   21  -25      38.37     5.90   -37.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.98R    1.50  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      38.94     6.45   -38.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.24R    1.45  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.68     5.20   -51.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.99R   17.92  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.65     6.81   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.46R   78.10  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1