Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 3 January 2010 at 00:39:20 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 December 2009, Man_Utd vs Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         20   45  +29      84.77     5.47    56.56    47.24    78.74    94.66    98.63    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         20   43  +27      79.81     5.79    48.61    15.52    41.50    79.05    92.52    99.25     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         19   41  +30      83.07     5.51    64.92    35.82    71.25    91.82    97.50    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       20   37  +20      71.09     6.02    37.05     0.91     5.14    18.55    50.87    87.34     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        19   35  +11      67.56     6.48    22.43     0.31     1.87     7.72    25.57    68.92     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.41     6.16    21.52     0.15     1.00     4.74    18.38    63.53     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   33  +12      64.83     6.11    24.12     0.05     0.46     3.04    13.37    54.45     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      20   32   +2      57.75     6.29     4.15     0.00     0.02     0.24     1.64    13.32     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          19   27   +5      56.94     6.58    10.64     0.00     0.02     0.18     1.52    12.90     0.01R    0.00  
Sunderland      20   23   -3      45.90     6.16    -7.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.26     1.91R    0.21  
Everton         19   22   -6      43.60     6.30   -15.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     5.26R    0.77  
Stoke           19   21   -8      41.95     6.38   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     8.30R    1.33  
Blackburn       20   21  -15      38.41     5.79   -28.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.46R    4.33  
Burnley         20   20  -18      36.73     5.71   -34.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    30.68R    8.24  
Wolverhampton   20   19  -19      34.64     5.63   -34.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.47R   14.43  
Wigan           19   19  -23      37.26     6.16   -39.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.08R    8.69  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.79     5.92   -15.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    10.35R    1.98  
Bolton          18   18  -10      37.15     6.17   -31.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.93R    7.85  
Hull            20   18  -22      32.46     5.53   -41.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.83R   26.00  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.10     5.79   -25.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.71R   26.17  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 December 2009, Barnsley vs Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.14     6.73    46.98    65.39    90.82    99.93    94.39P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        23   45  +26      90.43     7.19    49.55    27.60    71.71    99.09    80.98P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     24   43  +16      83.03     7.03    30.70     4.69    22.35    93.64    46.97P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          23   37  +15      77.47     7.56    29.84     1.43     8.20    77.59    27.17P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   37   +4      71.24     7.99     6.34     0.26     1.85    44.21     9.62P    0.03R    0.00  
Swansea          24   37   +2      67.13     7.18     3.18     0.02     0.32    23.15     5.19P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   35   +2      66.64     7.27     3.95     0.01     0.27    22.33     3.98P    0.10R    0.01  
Blackpool        22   34  +10      73.36     8.06    19.98     0.56     3.91    58.18    16.72P    0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   34   +1      64.20     7.37     1.40     0.01     0.13    14.01     2.63P    0.29R    0.02  
QPR              24   33   +2      64.33     7.35     3.65     0.00     0.11    15.05     2.74P    0.30R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    24   32   +5      64.14     7.25     8.00     0.01     0.11    14.54     3.01P    0.28R    0.01  
Bristol_City     24   32   +0      61.65     7.41    -0.48     0.00     0.05     8.29     1.46P    0.83R    0.05  
Watford          24   32   -4      60.81     7.37    -6.70     0.00     0.03     6.57     1.00P    1.24R    0.09  
Doncaster        23   30   +2      62.30     7.64     3.45     0.01     0.08    10.62     2.13P    0.80R    0.07  
Barnsley         22   30   -5      59.95     7.78   -10.38     0.00     0.04     6.26     0.86P    2.21R    0.24  
Preston          23   29   -3      59.19     7.58    -4.69     0.00     0.02     5.03     0.92P    2.21R    0.25  
Coventry         24   28   -9      53.11     7.08   -16.97     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.10P    9.93R    1.51  
Derby            24   26  -11      49.75     7.04   -20.60     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   21.28R    4.42  
Ipswich          23   24   -7      51.74     7.59   -13.01     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.10P   15.06R    3.00  
Reading          24   23  -13      46.03     7.03   -25.14     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   39.53R   11.77  
Scunthorpe       23   23  -19      45.25     7.09   -35.71     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   46.11R   15.73  
Plymouth         23   21  -13      44.55     7.20   -24.49     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   47.71R   16.27  
Sheff_Wed        23   19  -14      42.56     7.25   -28.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    58.73R   25.47  
Peterborough     24   18  -12      43.25     7.25   -20.67     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   53.28R   21.07  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Hartlepool vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     23   56  +32     105.88     6.64    60.47    88.74    97.16   100.00    98.22P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          24   48  +24      89.62     6.98    43.69     4.26    36.15    98.11    54.11P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.54     7.01    36.99     3.06    28.89    97.35    47.28P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      88.92     7.19    37.70     3.61    31.53    97.37    52.29P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      79.80     7.59    34.48     0.29     5.32    78.64    24.52P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          22   38   +2      71.83     7.70     2.95     0.03     0.52    34.91     5.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.39     7.24    13.35     0.01     0.20    29.49     6.17P    0.03R    0.00  
MK_Dons          24   36   +0      67.39     7.21     1.40     0.00     0.07    15.82     2.38P    0.11R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.49     7.53    -6.38     0.00     0.02     9.14     1.11P    0.46R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.45     7.88     6.68     0.00     0.10    15.49     2.92P    0.28R    0.00  
Hartlepool       24   30   -1      59.45     7.20    -2.67     0.00     0.00     2.47     0.43P    1.90R    0.02  
Brentford        24   30   -4      58.36     7.07    -6.13     0.00     0.00     1.49     0.23P    2.48R    0.01  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.58     7.02    -8.69     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.16P    4.12R    0.04  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.53     7.26    26.48     0.00     0.03    15.34     4.10P    0.19R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.20     7.37    -4.16     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.20P    4.02R    0.05  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.69     7.65    -9.48     0.00     0.00     1.47     0.25P    5.31R    0.06  
Gillingham       24   26   -5      53.22     7.15    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P   10.63R    0.17  
Exeter           24   26   -9      50.73     7.07   -17.50     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   19.18R    0.52  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.69     7.29   -15.94     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   16.37R    0.47  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.17     6.89   -26.41     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   37.22R    1.62  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.90     6.90   -24.20     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   32.89R    1.45  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.83     6.62   -43.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.35R   14.53  
Wycombe          25   18  -22      36.46     6.34   -39.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.08R   26.60  
Stockport        23   14  -26      33.01     6.60   -49.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.37R   54.47  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Bournemouth vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.08     6.73    57.58    74.72    97.59    99.96    98.45P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          24   46   +4      77.43     7.22     5.89     1.06    20.52    74.15    31.20P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.52     7.99    29.54     8.44    60.31    93.16    69.99P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   38   +5      69.71     7.07     9.35     0.04     3.55    35.95    11.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      87.09     7.24    54.34    14.24    75.82    97.49    84.97P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   37   +7      71.49     7.58    11.10     0.20     7.09    46.27    16.74P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      75.93     8.00    21.02     0.99    18.33    68.76    32.23P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   -1      68.62     7.78     0.35     0.08     3.33    30.61     8.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   35   +3      68.41     7.65     5.12     0.06     3.11    30.22     9.11P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.69     7.36    12.18     0.03     3.04    32.72    10.09P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.53     8.10     7.25     0.12     4.88    36.81    12.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                23   30   -1      61.85     7.53    -1.73     0.00     0.44     9.38     2.36P    0.07R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.70     7.42   -11.71     0.01     0.11     3.26     0.73P    0.30R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.35     7.94     1.61     0.00     0.62    11.38     3.37P    0.03R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   29   +0      63.15     7.96     1.21     0.01     0.83    13.32     3.70P    0.09R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.72     7.40    -0.13     0.00     0.21     6.91     1.89P    0.10R    0.00  
Barnet               23   28   -5      55.65     7.44   -10.86     0.00     0.03     1.76     0.42P    0.61R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.20     7.75   -11.34     0.00     0.06     2.64     0.64P    0.62R    0.00  
Torquay              23   25   -1      56.32     7.74    -2.15     0.00     0.06     2.62     0.76P    0.65R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      56.11     7.86    -9.24     0.00     0.06     2.43     0.59P    0.73R    0.01  
Cheltenham           24   24  -11      49.58     7.11   -19.24     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.05P    3.43R    0.01  
Lincoln_City         22   22  -14      43.53     7.01   -29.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.38R    0.19  
Grimsby              24   18  -20      34.60     6.04   -42.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.15R    2.58  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.88     5.18   -77.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.82R   97.21  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      93.87     6.15    44.52    19.85    98.73    47.06P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.42     6.80    52.57    75.35    99.82    82.91P    0.00     0.00  
York               25   49  +15      87.21     6.80    29.81     3.56    87.85    23.11P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      73.79     6.99    11.26     0.06    21.56     3.25P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.35     6.43    37.23     0.44    61.27    16.87P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.78     6.87    22.11     0.28    48.62    10.94P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.43     7.51    19.76     0.38    46.32     9.27P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.37     7.18    15.22     0.05    17.69     3.23P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.11     6.77    13.45     0.01     9.28     1.74P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.25     6.37    -8.99     0.00     0.40     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.45     7.32     0.86     0.00     2.23     0.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      26   33   +6      63.20     6.80    10.58     0.00     1.27     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         23   32   +4      65.76     7.52     7.98     0.00     4.23     0.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    26   32   -7      56.14     6.65   -12.71     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.13R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      53.87     6.46    -9.62     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.23R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      53.05     7.06   -17.47     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.69R    0.01  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      57.92     7.89    -2.05     0.00     0.58     0.12P    0.16R    0.00  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      47.91     6.60   -13.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.97R    0.03  
Gateshead          25   22  -12      45.86     6.87   -20.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.44R    0.05  
Eastbourne_Boro    26   22  -18      39.42     5.90   -33.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.06R    0.90  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   21  -25      38.49     5.92   -37.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.57R    1.49  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      38.90     6.40   -38.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.47R    1.53  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.70     5.26   -51.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.78R   18.66  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.84     6.80   -18.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.49R   77.34  

Adjustments:
Gateshead          0 - 0   Hayes_&_Yeading 
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25
Gateshead          -1