Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 2 January 2010 at 23:54:15 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 December 2009, Man_Utd vs Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         20   45  +29      84.63     5.46    56.27    47.13    78.34    94.49    98.49    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         20   43  +27      79.76     5.82    48.48    15.19    41.65    78.42    92.17    99.15     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         19   41  +30      83.04     5.56    64.87    36.18    71.13    91.66    97.54    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       20   37  +20      71.12     6.03    37.14     1.07     5.42    19.07    50.94    87.24     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        19   35  +11      67.29     6.49    21.91     0.23     1.81     7.47    24.35    67.17     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   35  +11      66.66     6.17    21.88     0.14     1.09     5.28    19.69    65.14     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       20   33  +12      64.99     6.07    24.42     0.06     0.55     3.24    13.74    55.08     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      20   32   +2      57.60     6.28     3.93     0.01     0.02     0.19     1.49    12.51     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          19   27   +5      57.15     6.53    10.99     0.00     0.00     0.19     1.58    13.40     0.01R    0.00  
Sunderland      20   23   -3      46.08     6.18    -7.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.31     1.73R    0.16  
Everton         19   22   -6      43.57     6.29   -15.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17     5.03R    0.77  
Stoke           19   21   -8      41.96     6.29   -14.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     8.19R    1.33  
Blackburn       20   21  -15      38.45     5.75   -27.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.02R    4.14  
Burnley         20   20  -18      36.61     5.67   -35.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.55R    8.07  
Wolverhampton   20   19  -19      34.69     5.60   -34.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.60R   14.28  
Wigan           19   19  -23      37.32     6.16   -39.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    30.21R    8.51  
West_Ham        20   18   -9      40.77     5.88   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    10.32R    1.96  
Bolton          18   18  -10      36.98     6.24   -31.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    30.18R    8.36  
Hull            20   18  -22      32.28     5.50   -41.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.95R   27.49  
Portsmouth      20   14  -14      32.29     5.78   -25.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.22R   24.92  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 December 2009, Barnsley vs Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        24   51  +25      96.22     6.74    47.11    65.95    90.98    99.92    94.41P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        23   45  +26      90.44     7.16    49.57    27.06    71.36    99.08    80.93P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     24   43  +16      83.05     7.05    30.71     4.72    22.56    93.73    46.88P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          23   37  +15      77.53     7.57    29.93     1.41     8.39    77.99    27.25P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   37   +4      70.71     7.90     5.54     0.18     1.54    41.66     8.68P    0.03R    0.00  
Swansea          24   37   +2      67.21     7.06     3.31     0.02     0.28    23.32     5.17P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   35   +2      66.74     7.32     4.09     0.02     0.30    22.59     4.12P    0.08R    0.01  
Blackpool        22   34  +10      73.52     8.02    20.20     0.61     4.05    59.02    17.14P    0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   34   +1      64.29     7.36     1.55     0.00     0.10    14.20     2.67P    0.30R    0.02  
QPR              24   33   +2      64.45     7.37     3.84     0.01     0.12    15.58     2.66P    0.33R    0.03  
Middlesbrough    24   32   +5      64.00     7.35     7.79     0.01     0.10    14.71     3.16P    0.33R    0.02  
Bristol_City     24   32   +0      61.81     7.37    -0.26     0.00     0.05     8.44     1.63P    0.69R    0.04  
Watford          24   32   -4      60.83     7.39    -6.65     0.00     0.03     6.63     1.02P    1.15R    0.09  
Doncaster        23   30   +2      62.12     7.67     3.26     0.00     0.06    10.38     2.12P    0.83R    0.06  
Barnsley         22   30   -5      59.85     7.85   -10.65     0.00     0.06     6.06     0.95P    2.31R    0.23  
Preston          23   29   -3      59.43     7.60    -4.37     0.00     0.04     5.14     0.96P    2.10R    0.24  
Coventry         24   28   -9      53.21     7.09   -16.79     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.10P    9.91R    1.45  
Derby            24   26  -11      49.48     7.03   -21.05     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   22.09R    4.62  
Ipswich          23   24   -7      52.10     7.51   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.11P   13.78R    2.77  
Reading          24   23  -13      45.92     6.99   -25.33     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   40.08R   11.61  
Scunthorpe       23   23  -19      45.15     7.12   -35.91     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   46.71R   15.81  
Plymouth         23   21  -13      44.53     7.27   -24.64     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   47.63R   16.48  
Sheff_Wed        23   19  -14      42.56     7.32   -28.10     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    58.37R   25.82  
Peterborough     24   18  -12      43.25     7.21   -20.68     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   53.24R   20.70  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Hartlepool vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     23   56  +32     105.95     6.69    60.56    88.70    97.15   100.00    98.29P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          24   48  +24      89.68     7.03    43.78     4.37    36.88    98.07    54.89P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         24   48  +19      88.47     7.03    36.88     3.13    28.67    97.29    47.10P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       23   45  +18      88.84     7.23    37.66     3.49    30.92    97.32    51.35P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     23   38  +18      79.92     7.58    34.80     0.29     5.42    79.03    24.84P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          22   38   +2      71.96     7.71     3.10     0.02     0.52    35.59     5.53P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall         24   36   +7      70.30     7.24    13.18     0.01     0.24    28.61     5.95P    0.03R    0.00  
MK_Dons          24   36   +0      67.40     7.17     1.42     0.00     0.06    15.61     2.29P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   34   -4      64.45     7.59    -6.54     0.00     0.03     8.99     1.19P    0.47R    0.00  
Walsall          22   31   +3      66.60     7.92     6.92     0.00     0.09    15.94     2.99P    0.28R    0.00  
Hartlepool       24   30   -1      59.53     7.22    -2.53     0.00     0.00     2.48     0.43P    1.77R    0.00  
Brentford        24   30   -4      58.43     7.06    -6.03     0.00     0.00     1.66     0.28P    2.34R    0.01  
Southend         24   29   -4      56.56     7.01    -8.79     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.14P    4.17R    0.03  
Southampton      24   28  +13      66.49     7.26    26.44     0.00     0.02    15.07     4.13P    0.17R    0.00  
Yeovil           24   28   -2      57.09     7.32    -4.37     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.23P    4.01R    0.03  
Carlisle         22   28   -2      56.72     7.61    -9.40     0.00     0.00     1.47     0.26P    5.18R    0.08  
Gillingham       24   26   -5      53.22     7.22    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P   10.58R    0.21  
Exeter           24   26   -9      50.77     7.05   -17.37     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   18.57R    0.49  
Oldham           23   25   -9      51.69     7.24   -15.88     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P   16.35R    0.40  
Brighton         24   24  -13      47.07     6.88   -26.49     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    37.73R    1.75  
Leyton_Orient    24   24  -13      47.83     6.91   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   33.29R    1.33  
Tranmere         23   21  -22      39.78     6.64   -43.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.34R   14.40  
Wycombe          25   18  -22      36.37     6.35   -39.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.13R   27.00  
Stockport        23   14  -26      32.98     6.56   -49.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.49R   54.26  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2010, Bournemouth vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Rochdale             24   51  +30      97.13     6.70    57.67    75.41    97.71    99.95    98.50P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          24   46   +4      77.47     7.24     5.98     1.18    20.63    74.20    31.35P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            21   39  +12      84.48     7.97    29.47     8.18    59.80    93.00    69.56P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   38   +5      69.71     7.06     9.33     0.06     3.40    35.89    11.38P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   37  +26      86.92     7.28    54.18    13.56    75.04    97.26    84.45P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   37   +7      71.57     7.68    11.25     0.24     7.41    46.38    16.89P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   36  +10      76.11     8.06    21.27     1.04    19.21    69.27    33.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   -1      68.75     7.79     0.56     0.08     3.43    31.32     8.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   35   +3      68.21     7.74     4.69     0.07     3.11    29.37     8.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            24   34   +5      68.75     7.38    12.31     0.02     3.01    33.05    10.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   33   +2      69.39     8.09     7.07     0.13     4.60    36.06    11.84P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                23   30   -1      61.83     7.59    -1.83     0.00     0.45     9.23     2.42P    0.07R    0.00  
Bradford             23   30   -4      57.64     7.42   -11.84     0.00     0.10     3.29     0.67P    0.29R    0.00  
Port_Vale            22   29   +1      62.16     7.96     1.34     0.02     0.68    11.15     3.51P    0.05R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   29   +0      63.32     7.98     1.51     0.01     0.87    13.98     3.94P    0.07R    0.00  
Northampton          24   29   -2      60.73     7.32    -0.12     0.00     0.23     6.52     1.80P    0.08R    0.00  
Barnet               23   28   -5      55.69     7.43   -10.76     0.00     0.07     1.80     0.46P    0.59R    0.00  
Macclesfield         22   27   -5      56.39     7.80   -11.08     0.00     0.09     2.78     0.69P    0.60R    0.00  
Torquay              23   25   -1      56.25     7.76    -2.24     0.00     0.07     2.67     0.75P    0.65R    0.00  
Hereford             22   25   -6      56.24     7.83    -9.04     0.00     0.09     2.65     0.70P    0.75R    0.00  
Cheltenham           24   24  -11      49.36     7.11   -19.64     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    3.72R    0.03  
Lincoln_City         22   22  -14      43.38     6.92   -29.89     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   16.04R    0.16  
Grimsby              24   18  -20      34.78     6.07   -42.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.25R    2.41  
Darlington           21    8  -35      18.89     5.17   -77.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.82R   97.40  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2010, Eastbourne_Boro vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Stevenage          27   57  +28      93.91     6.16    44.63    20.09    98.73    47.46P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd         24   56  +28     101.43     6.80    52.66    75.14    99.81    82.94P    0.00     0.00  
York               25   49  +15      87.39     6.72    30.05     3.56    88.56    23.49P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          25   44  +10      73.89     7.01    11.42     0.05    22.28     3.25P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      26   43  +21      80.18     6.51    36.95     0.43    60.63    16.58P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          25   42  +10      78.60     6.96    21.82     0.28    47.78    10.58P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              23   40   +9      78.37     7.52    19.63     0.40    46.00     9.19P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   24   39  +10      72.38     7.15    15.19     0.04    17.82     3.19P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      26   38   +6      70.13     6.80    13.44     0.00     9.45     1.76P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town       27   38   -5      61.31     6.32    -8.87     0.00     0.41     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             24   34   +2      63.63     7.24     1.18     0.00     2.24     0.30P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      26   33   +6      63.14     6.80    10.50     0.00     1.32     0.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         23   32   +4      65.58     7.55     7.72     0.01     4.23     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           26   31   -3      53.83     6.48    -9.69     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.30R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    25   31   -7      56.68     7.00   -12.74     0.00     0.13     0.01P    0.13R    0.00  
Barrow             24   28   -9      52.81     7.07   -17.85     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.82R    0.01  
Wrexham            22   27   +0      57.79     7.88    -2.25     0.00     0.55     0.10P    0.19R    0.00  
Salisbury          26   24   -8      47.80     6.55   -13.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.01R    0.04  
Gateshead          24   22  -12      47.81     7.29   -20.04     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.71R    0.05  
Eastbourne_Boro    26   22  -18      39.43     5.90   -33.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.70R    0.89  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   21  -25      38.50     5.88   -37.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.06R    1.38  
Forest_Green       25   20  -22      38.95     6.40   -38.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.81R    1.66  
Grays_Athletic     27   17  -27      29.80     5.24   -51.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.63R   17.79  
Chester            25   -3  -13      21.60     6.86   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.63R   78.18  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25