Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 16 November 2009 at 22:17:30 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Liverpool vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         12   30  +21      88.85     7.71    63.11    54.10    82.94    93.57    97.70    99.76     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         11   25  +22      85.60     8.12    79.53    36.60    71.75    87.70    94.46    99.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         12   25  +11      77.46     8.33    39.64     6.19    26.00    57.10    76.51    94.47     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       12   22   +6      68.12     9.01    25.52     0.81     5.03    16.41    34.49    69.57     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     12   21   +8      65.26     9.13    21.87     0.47     3.25    11.04    23.76    57.99     0.02R    0.00  
Man_City        11   20   +7      66.98     9.64    24.26     0.97     5.16    15.68    31.67    64.59     0.03R    0.00  
Liverpool       12   19   +9      67.63     8.96    34.15     0.84     5.47    16.19    33.34    69.69     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland      12   17   +1      52.80     9.19    -2.13     0.00     0.12     0.62     2.28    12.30     1.44R    0.11  
Stoke           12   16   -3      47.07     9.00   -11.23     0.00     0.03     0.17     0.55     4.13     4.89R    0.50  
Burnley         12   16  -10      43.38     8.82   -28.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.19     1.65    11.95R    1.86  
Fulham          11   15   +0      54.52     9.80     2.96     0.02     0.22     1.28     4.08    17.34     1.16R    0.09  
Everton         11   15   -2      44.49     9.04   -19.03     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.35     2.69     8.90R    1.21  
Wigan           12   14   -9      41.81     8.74   -25.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     1.11    14.87R    2.35  
Blackburn       11   13  -11      41.22     9.16   -29.73     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.17     1.40    18.26R    3.41  
Birmingham      12   12   -4      43.96     8.92    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.13     1.68     9.61R    1.28  
Bolton          11   11   -9      39.35     9.12   -33.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.69    24.78R    5.43  
Hull            12   11  -15      27.96     7.44   -54.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    75.93R   38.66  
West_Ham        12   10   -4      44.24     8.70    -9.27     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     1.72     9.12R    1.32  
Wolverhampton   12   10  -10      32.22     8.02   -38.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    54.39R   17.56  
Portsmouth      12    7   -8      29.78     8.16   -30.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    64.62R   26.22  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Barnsley vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        16   33  +15      94.23     9.11    45.69    45.06    69.94    96.98    78.99P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        16   31  +17      89.81     9.70    47.32    27.28    52.15    91.91    63.82P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          16   27  +14      83.44     9.77    42.12    10.32    25.73    79.65    40.03P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              16   27  +12      82.44    10.09    36.72     8.78    22.70    76.05    37.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        16   27   +9      79.05    10.16    26.46     4.43    13.27    64.11    25.37P    0.03R    0.00  
Leicester        16   27   +5      74.66    10.14    15.36     1.63     5.95    45.99    15.69P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_City     16   26   +4      72.02    10.30    11.96     1.13     3.91    35.50    11.15P    0.18R    0.01  
Nottm_Forest     16   25   +3      69.12     9.89     8.38     0.35     1.65    24.94     7.06P    0.21R    0.01  
Swansea          16   25   +2      68.25     9.50     6.70     0.26     1.23    20.87     5.97P    0.19R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    16   24   +5      66.69    10.11     7.57     0.33     1.47    19.36     5.31P    0.59R    0.06  
Preston          16   24   +1      64.91    10.01     0.54     0.17     0.85    14.24     3.17P    1.01R    0.09  
Watford          16   24   -2      62.44     9.87    -7.44     0.11     0.48     9.19     1.78P    1.87R    0.21  
Crystal_Palace   16   22   -1      64.03    10.00     1.54     0.10     0.53    11.97     2.84P    1.17R    0.12  
Sheff_Utd        16   18   -3      56.56     9.95    -8.88     0.01     0.07     3.49     0.68P    6.56R    1.19  
Barnsley         16   18   -8      48.76     9.48   -27.19     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.07P   23.45R    6.31  
Sheff_Wed        16   17   -2      55.03     9.68    -7.76     0.01     0.03     2.16     0.42P    8.02R    1.50  
Coventry         16   17   -7      50.77     9.58   -18.80     0.01     0.02     0.79     0.17P   17.10R    4.07  
Derby            16   17   -8      47.49     9.25   -26.09     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.05P   27.03R    7.46  
Scunthorpe       16   17  -12      48.98     9.75   -30.29     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.08P   24.36R    6.92  
Doncaster        16   15   -3      51.16     9.65   -10.03     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.20P   14.91R    3.34  
Plymouth         16   15  -11      45.50     9.48   -28.10     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   35.23R   11.33  
Reading          16   14  -10      45.03     9.50   -25.54     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   36.52R   11.99  
Ipswich          16   12  -11      40.25     9.34   -35.06     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   57.13R   27.37  
Peterborough     16   11   -9      43.07     9.72   -25.19     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   44.38R   18.00  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 November 2009, Southampton vs Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     15   36  +21     104.39     8.78    61.89    75.55    90.17    99.76    93.69P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         16   32  +13      89.21     9.49    40.66     8.66    35.22    91.31    49.98P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       16   29  +13      88.20     9.22    43.99     6.86    30.70    90.74    48.84P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          16   29   +1      73.40     9.86     6.31     0.25     2.30    38.42     8.03P    0.16R    0.00  
Norwich          16   28  +10      76.83     9.94    22.61     0.69     5.31    54.26    14.49P    0.05R    0.00  
Huddersfield     16   27  +19      87.09     9.20    52.28     6.86    28.11    88.77    48.10P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         16   25  +10      77.78     9.82    27.91     0.98     6.30    59.34    21.85P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   16   25   -2      64.89     9.91    -5.80     0.05     0.45    12.93     2.01P    1.51R    0.02  
Hartlepool       16   23   +2      61.36     9.79    -1.99     0.02     0.16     7.19     1.51P    3.08R    0.03  
Walsall          16   23   +1      65.83     9.87     3.77     0.03     0.40    15.24     3.04P    1.16R    0.00  
Swindon          15   22   -1      63.36    10.39    -3.38     0.04     0.45    11.14     2.27P    2.95R    0.03  
Yeovil           16   21   -1      60.22     9.95    -3.89     0.00     0.10     6.20     1.13P    4.22R    0.09  
Southend         16   20   +1      61.24     9.81     0.87     0.02     0.17     7.47     1.54P    3.16R    0.05  
Oldham           16   20   -3      56.17     9.55    -8.70     0.00     0.01     2.37     0.43P    8.50R    0.20  
Gillingham       16   18   -3      58.36     9.90    -4.95     0.00     0.05     4.21     0.71P    6.74R    0.10  
Brentford        16   18   -5      53.35     9.56   -14.04     0.00     0.01     1.35     0.22P   14.41R    0.57  
Exeter           16   18   -6      54.13     9.86   -14.19     0.00     0.01     1.77     0.29P   14.08R    0.38  
Carlisle         16   17   -4      51.76     9.66   -15.78     0.00     0.01     1.05     0.22P   18.95R    0.82  
Brighton         16   17   -7      48.01     9.33   -26.97     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.05P   32.93R    1.55  
Leyton_Orient    16   16  -12      46.88     9.31   -31.13     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P   37.67R    2.74  
Stockport        16   14  -13      40.04     8.81   -38.77     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    67.56R    9.70  
Southampton      16   12   +5      59.91     9.75    16.47     0.01     0.07     5.83     1.59P    4.21R    0.12  
Tranmere         16   10  -23      28.89     7.76   -66.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.69R   60.04  
Wycombe          16    8  -16      34.82     8.88   -41.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.90R   23.57  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 November 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Dag_&_Red            16   32  +12      85.83     9.87    32.86    20.55    53.81    87.45    62.48P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          16   32   +7      79.63    10.14    16.89     7.88    28.79    69.55    38.42P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             16   29  +13      82.67     9.97    33.69    13.73    42.17    80.73    52.87P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            16   29   +8      80.79     9.84    24.22     8.72    33.00    74.99    44.39P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         16   29   +4      79.00    10.13    17.94     6.42    26.61    67.68    35.26P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         16   27  +19      89.71     9.12    57.34    36.30    72.18    94.95    80.20P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           16   26   +6      73.86     9.90    16.81     2.17    13.14    49.02    21.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet               16   25   +6      74.22    10.24    18.17     2.52    14.20    51.06    24.67P    0.02R    0.00  
Bury                 16   25   -1      62.88    10.20    -7.25     0.21     1.99    14.00     4.30P    0.25R    0.01  
Aldershot            16   23   +6      66.42    10.19     9.04     0.54     4.17    23.43     8.86P    0.10R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        16   22   +0      63.57    10.02     0.48     0.19     1.96    14.83     4.75P    0.24R    0.02  
Bradford             16   22   -1      65.31    10.17     2.07     0.38     3.05    19.21     6.38P    0.22R    0.02  
Port_Vale            16   20   +1      62.77    10.12     3.87     0.14     1.56    13.57     4.70P    0.33R    0.03  
Accrington_Stanley   16   20   -2      57.65    10.10    -9.02     0.05     0.51     5.90     1.66P    1.24R    0.12  
Northampton          16   19   -2      61.20    10.15    -1.01     0.06     1.07    10.76     3.17P    0.66R    0.06  
Hereford             16   19   -3      56.14     9.92    -9.26     0.03     0.34     4.08     1.19P    1.59R    0.16  
Macclesfield         16   19   -6      54.28     9.74   -16.06     0.01     0.15     2.65     0.67P    2.82R    0.33  
Crewe                16   18   -1      57.73     9.92    -4.81     0.04     0.51     6.00     1.64P    1.11R    0.09  
Morecambe            16   18   -6      59.33     9.95    -7.21     0.05     0.62     7.23     1.93P    1.08R    0.16  
Lincoln_City         16   17  -10      44.77     9.02   -28.50     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.05P   15.27R    2.33  
Cheltenham           16   16  -11      44.85     9.26   -34.12     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.05P   15.75R    2.48  
Torquay              16   15   -5      53.50    10.09    -9.12     0.01     0.14     2.48     0.70P    3.42R    0.55  
Grimsby              16   12  -16      34.89     8.45   -49.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.56R   17.90  
Darlington           16    8  -18      25.11     7.25   -57.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.33R   75.73  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 November 2009, Altrincham vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         19   43  +23     100.95     7.84    57.79    67.03    99.14    77.84P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          19   38  +18      90.74     8.45    42.60    14.18    88.66    37.57P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          19   38  +14      90.96     8.40    39.52    13.70    89.28    36.26P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          19   36  +11      80.75     8.89    23.35     1.77    52.11    10.83P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              19   35   +7      81.44     8.67    21.52     1.90    54.30    12.72P    0.00     0.00  
York               20   34   +8      77.25     8.42    20.00     0.49    35.65     7.61P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   19   32   +9      72.01     8.49    13.48     0.19    16.30     3.16P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      19   30   +6      71.43     8.59    13.20     0.15    14.95     2.96P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      19   27  +11      69.08     8.78    19.20     0.10    10.92     2.55P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      18   27  +10      75.45     8.95    27.62     0.48    30.81     7.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         19   25   +1      62.57     8.62     2.64     0.00     2.25     0.47P    0.04R    0.00  
Histon             19   25   +0      61.98     8.68    -0.82     0.00     2.28     0.30P    0.06R    0.00  
Tamworth           19   25   +0      60.77     8.48    -2.95     0.00     1.48     0.26P    0.08R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       19   25   -8      55.92     8.45   -16.83     0.00     0.29     0.04P    0.46R    0.00  
Wrexham            18   22   +0      58.37     9.14    -2.07     0.00     1.12     0.23P    0.38R    0.00  
Barrow             19   22   -9      52.81     8.52   -19.92     0.00     0.11     0.02P    1.41R    0.04  
Salisbury          19   20   +0      54.04     8.58    -4.67     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.86R    0.01  
Hayes_&_Yeading    18   17   -7      50.79     8.96   -15.99     0.00     0.11     0.01P    2.98R    0.11  
Eastbourne_Boro    19   17  -13      40.54     7.64   -33.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.44R    1.38  
Gateshead          18   15  -11      48.07     8.90   -21.79     0.00     0.05     0.01P    5.62R    0.32  
Forest_Green       19   13  -22      33.78     7.44   -52.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.28R   10.37  
Grays_Athletic     19   12  -19      35.30     7.54   -45.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.25R    7.94  
Ebbsfleet_United   19    9  -23      26.23     6.61   -51.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.46R   45.57  
Chester            20   -4   -6      27.70     8.03   -12.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.70R   34.25  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25