Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 15 November 2009 at 22:17:35 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Liverpool vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         12   30  +21      88.85     7.65    63.11    53.38    82.64    93.71    97.70    99.75     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         11   25  +22      85.65     8.13    79.82    36.68    71.85    87.71    94.41    99.08     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         12   25  +11      77.51     8.48    39.73     6.64    25.98    56.74    76.04    94.12     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       12   22   +6      67.86     9.00    24.97     0.78     4.90    15.61    33.19    68.68     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     12   21   +8      65.73     9.14    22.71     0.55     3.56    12.00    25.43    60.22     0.02R    0.00  
Man_City        11   20   +7      66.86     9.69    23.92     1.05     5.16    15.39    30.99    63.37     0.02R    0.00  
Liverpool       12   19   +9      67.77     9.00    34.63     0.87     5.49    16.44    34.15    70.18     0.02R    0.00  
Sunderland      12   17   +1      52.58     9.24    -2.58     0.02     0.12     0.65     2.18    11.98     1.55R    0.11  
Stoke           12   16   -3      46.89     8.89   -11.53     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.47     3.76     4.89R    0.48  
Burnley         12   16  -10      43.76     8.85   -28.20     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.14     1.67    11.61R    1.67  
Fulham          11   15   +0      54.58     9.83     2.89     0.02     0.26     1.42     4.19    17.77     1.16R    0.10  
Everton         11   15   -2      44.28     9.05   -19.45     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.40     2.55     9.39R    1.38  
Wigan           12   14   -9      41.98     8.84   -25.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     1.22    14.65R    2.18  
Blackburn       11   13  -11      41.44     9.11   -29.46     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.16     1.36    17.11R    3.11  
Birmingham      12   12   -4      43.83     8.93    -8.45     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.21     1.81     9.54R    1.26  
Bolton          11   11   -9      39.28     9.08   -34.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.68    24.41R    5.40  
Hull            12   11  -15      28.05     7.35   -54.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    75.65R   37.93  
West_Ham        12   10   -4      43.98     8.82    -9.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.16     1.67    10.02R    1.81  
Wolverhampton   12   10  -10      32.18     8.09   -38.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    54.64R   17.99  
Portsmouth      12    7   -8      29.73     8.02   -29.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    65.31R   26.57  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Barnsley vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        16   33  +15      94.52     9.06    46.10    46.47    71.24    97.12    80.03P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        16   31  +17      89.57     9.57    47.01    25.86    50.52    91.70    62.46P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          16   27  +14      83.46     9.67    42.09     9.78    25.37    79.24    39.55P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              16   27  +12      82.83     9.87    37.30     8.94    23.33    77.46    37.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        16   27   +9      79.26    10.06    26.78     4.65    13.28    64.65    25.63P    0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        16   27   +5      74.64    10.17    15.36     1.67     5.85    45.06    15.40P    0.05R    0.01  
Bristol_City     16   26   +4      72.12    10.31    12.07     1.08     3.80    35.33    10.87P    0.18R    0.01  
Nottm_Forest     16   25   +3      69.48    10.00     8.89     0.55     1.97    26.15     7.48P    0.19R    0.01  
Swansea          16   25   +2      68.19     9.72     6.65     0.30     1.35    21.00     6.40P    0.25R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    16   24   +5      66.44    10.03     7.21     0.27     1.20    17.99     4.88P    0.54R    0.06  
Preston          16   24   +1      65.03    10.02     0.76     0.22     0.91    14.11     3.38P    0.86R    0.07  
Watford          16   24   -2      62.31     9.89    -7.65     0.07     0.43     8.84     1.67P    1.88R    0.25  
Crystal_Palace   16   22   -1      64.09    10.15     1.57     0.11     0.57    12.07     3.04P    1.24R    0.16  
Sheff_Utd        16   18   -3      56.43     9.98    -9.17     0.01     0.08     3.37     0.61P    6.59R    1.19  
Barnsley         16   18   -8      48.88     9.49   -26.93     0.00     0.02     0.52     0.10P   22.43R    5.52  
Sheff_Wed        16   17   -2      54.91     9.75    -7.89     0.00     0.03     2.16     0.42P    8.31R    1.73  
Coventry         16   17   -7      50.70     9.79   -18.96     0.00     0.01     0.86     0.13P   17.51R    4.21  
Derby            16   17   -8      47.53     9.37   -26.14     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P   27.10R    7.38  
Scunthorpe       16   17  -12      48.74     9.74   -30.66     0.00     0.01     0.51     0.07P   24.62R    7.05  
Doncaster        16   15   -3      51.02     9.75   -10.39     0.00     0.01     1.02     0.23P   15.15R    3.42  
Plymouth         16   15  -11      45.28     9.44   -28.31     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   35.94R   11.40  
Reading          16   14  -10      45.47     9.46   -24.87     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P   34.45R   11.03  
Ipswich          16   12  -11      40.06     9.36   -35.18     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   57.41R   27.96  
Peterborough     16   11   -9      42.83     9.89   -25.65     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   45.25R   18.54  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 November 2009, Southampton vs Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     15   36  +21     103.89     8.86    60.88    74.58    89.64    99.70    93.36P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         16   32  +13      88.75     9.44    39.93     8.78    34.00    90.83    48.66P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       16   29  +13      88.06     9.16    43.69     7.05    30.82    90.73    48.98P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons          16   29   +1      72.70     9.63     5.21     0.26     1.82    35.50     7.16P    0.14R    0.00  
Norwich          16   28  +10      76.88     9.92    22.68     0.83     5.45    54.82    14.87P    0.05R    0.00  
Huddersfield     16   27  +19      87.34     9.28    52.79     7.48    30.13    89.29    49.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         16   25  +10      77.92     9.73    28.13     0.86     6.40    59.93    22.30P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   16   25   -2      65.18     9.85    -5.46     0.05     0.41    13.65     2.13P    1.30R    0.01  
Hartlepool       16   23   +2      61.39     9.75    -1.91     0.02     0.16     7.18     1.49P    3.09R    0.04  
Walsall          16   23   +1      65.67     9.91     3.50     0.02     0.38    15.07     2.98P    1.31R    0.00  
Swindon          15   22   -1      63.08    10.28    -3.93     0.04     0.33    10.65     1.98P    3.10R    0.03  
Yeovil           16   21   -1      60.28     9.99    -3.87     0.02     0.14     6.50     1.22P    4.24R    0.06  
Southend         16   20   +1      61.90     9.79     1.99     0.01     0.13     8.53     1.86P    2.72R    0.04  
Oldham           16   20   -3      56.27     9.59    -8.57     0.00     0.03     2.55     0.52P    8.47R    0.20  
Gillingham       16   18   -3      58.48     9.98    -4.76     0.00     0.06     4.30     0.71P    7.02R    0.11  
Brentford        16   18   -5      53.59     9.58   -13.52     0.00     0.02     1.40     0.23P   14.00R    0.52  
Exeter           16   18   -6      54.27     9.80   -13.85     0.00     0.02     1.78     0.27P   13.75R    0.33  
Carlisle         16   17   -4      51.76     9.54   -15.73     0.00     0.01     1.03     0.19P   19.11R    0.73  
Brighton         16   17   -7      48.02     9.41   -26.89     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.06P   32.98R    1.74  
Leyton_Orient    16   16  -12      46.84     9.28   -31.08     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P   38.03R    2.63  
Stockport        16   14  -13      40.10     8.84   -38.63     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   67.39R    8.97  
Southampton      16   12   +5      60.10     9.70    16.75     0.00     0.05     5.89     1.64P    4.07R    0.11  
Tranmere         16   10  -23      28.63     7.60   -66.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.15R   60.89  
Wycombe          16    8  -16      34.85     8.91   -40.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.02R   23.60  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 November 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Dag_&_Red            16   32  +12      85.51     9.95    32.33    19.91    52.95    86.34    61.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          16   32   +7      79.58    10.13    16.76     8.12    28.92    69.26    38.62P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             16   29  +13      82.21    10.12    32.90    13.19    40.57    79.27    50.95P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            16   29   +8      80.79     9.82    24.19     8.89    33.16    74.58    44.20P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         16   29   +4      79.14    10.04    18.22     6.60    27.16    68.56    35.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         16   27  +19      89.68     9.09    57.34    36.55    72.13    94.92    80.29P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           16   26   +6      73.82     9.94    16.87     2.33    13.51    48.97    21.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet               16   25   +6      74.20    10.14    18.12     2.54    14.52    50.69    24.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Bury                 16   25   -1      62.94    10.21    -7.18     0.22     2.05    13.75     4.32P    0.30R    0.02  
Aldershot            16   23   +6      66.43    10.33     9.04     0.65     4.44    23.44     9.15P    0.13R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        16   22   +0      63.86    10.13     1.03     0.23     2.12    15.81     5.23P    0.22R    0.01  
Bradford             16   22   -1      65.57    10.22     2.51     0.36     3.25    20.25     6.91P    0.22R    0.02  
Port_Vale            16   20   +1      62.90    10.01     4.07     0.15     1.59    13.59     4.79P    0.29R    0.01  
Accrington_Stanley   16   20   -2      57.57    10.02    -9.12     0.04     0.50     5.60     1.59P    1.19R    0.08  
Northampton          16   19   -2      61.68    10.04    -0.30     0.13     1.23    11.31     3.29P    0.48R    0.05  
Hereford             16   19   -3      56.12     9.79    -9.38     0.02     0.29     4.05     1.14P    1.35R    0.13  
Macclesfield         16   19   -6      54.57     9.90   -15.60     0.01     0.23     3.01     0.83P    2.85R    0.33  
Crewe                16   18   -1      57.78    10.00    -4.64     0.04     0.57     6.27     1.79P    1.17R    0.09  
Morecambe            16   18   -6      59.32    10.10    -7.15     0.03     0.63     7.62     1.94P    1.27R    0.15  
Lincoln_City         16   17  -10      44.89     8.98   -28.23     0.00     0.01     0.26     0.06P   14.72R    2.04  
Cheltenham           16   16  -11      44.53     9.14   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   16.13R    2.47  
Torquay              16   15   -5      53.21     9.96    -9.50     0.01     0.15     2.27     0.66P    3.50R    0.49  
Grimsby              16   12  -16      34.85     8.33   -50.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   62.56R   17.02  
Darlington           16    8  -18      24.83     7.22   -57.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.60R   77.10  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 November 2009, Altrincham vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         19   43  +23     100.88     7.88    57.80    67.35    99.08    78.11P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          19   38  +18      90.30     8.45    41.88    13.02    87.55    36.48P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          19   38  +14      91.10     8.39    39.71    14.59    89.44    37.07P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          19   36  +11      80.72     8.83    23.30     1.68    51.54    10.81P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              19   35   +7      81.41     8.65    21.42     1.92    54.43    12.66P    0.00     0.00  
York               20   34   +8      77.11     8.43    19.79     0.41    35.02     7.15P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   19   32   +9      72.22     8.68    13.82     0.22    17.16     3.42P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      19   30   +6      71.52     8.61    13.30     0.15    15.03     3.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      19   27  +11      69.01     8.78    19.09     0.08    10.86     2.47P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      18   27  +10      75.82     9.03    28.32     0.56    32.06     7.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         19   25   +1      62.48     8.69     2.56     0.00     2.35     0.51P    0.03R    0.00  
Histon             19   25   +0      62.03     8.76    -0.78     0.01     2.29     0.35P    0.06R    0.00  
Tamworth           19   25   +0      60.59     8.44    -3.25     0.00     1.30     0.20P    0.10R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       19   25   -8      55.73     8.46   -17.06     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.48R    0.00  
Wrexham            18   22   +0      58.31     9.12    -2.15     0.00     1.09     0.28P    0.32R    0.01  
Barrow             19   22   -9      52.35     8.44   -20.66     0.00     0.08     0.01P    1.56R    0.05  
Salisbury          19   20   +0      54.38     8.61    -4.05     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.77R    0.02  
Hayes_&_Yeading    18   17   -7      50.69     8.77   -16.13     0.00     0.14     0.02P    2.66R    0.10  
Eastbourne_Boro    19   17  -13      40.64     7.65   -33.45     0.00     0.01     0.00    19.71R    1.53  
Gateshead          18   15  -11      48.19     8.91   -21.73     0.00     0.06     0.00P    5.54R    0.37  
Forest_Green       19   13  -22      33.86     7.50   -52.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.85R   10.49  
Grays_Athletic     19   12  -19      35.38     7.57   -45.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.18R    7.66  
Ebbsfleet_United   19    9  -23      26.35     6.75   -51.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.18R   45.91  
Chester            20   -4   -6      27.89     8.08   -12.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.54R   33.85  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25