Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 14 November 2009 at 22:17:32 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Liverpool vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         12   30  +21      88.99     7.65    63.55    54.07    83.13    93.92    97.83    99.77     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         11   25  +22      85.62     8.25    79.81    36.43    71.49    87.53    94.41    99.08     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         12   25  +11      77.60     8.39    39.75     6.51    26.65    57.77    76.93    94.27     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       12   22   +6      67.70     8.96    24.65     0.67     4.43    15.19    32.71    68.20     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     12   21   +8      65.39     9.22    22.05     0.50     3.29    11.42    24.52    58.95     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City        11   20   +7      66.86     9.71    24.06     0.98     5.27    15.52    31.33    63.71     0.02R    0.00  
Liverpool       12   19   +9      67.68     8.94    34.27     0.80     5.26    16.05    33.80    70.12     0.01R    0.00  
Sunderland      12   17   +1      52.25     9.35    -3.29     0.01     0.14     0.69     2.22    11.61     1.70R    0.13  
Stoke           12   16   -3      46.81     8.98   -11.78     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.54     4.02     5.25R    0.53  
Burnley         12   16  -10      43.93     8.88   -27.84     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.20     1.80    10.93R    1.55  
Fulham          11   15   +0      54.89     9.74     3.51     0.03     0.27     1.55     4.41    18.56     1.00R    0.08  
Everton         11   15   -2      44.54     9.11   -18.93     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.46     2.72     9.16R    1.29  
Wigan           12   14   -9      42.36     8.86   -24.58     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14     1.40    13.49R    2.09  
Blackburn       11   13  -11      41.62     9.23   -29.05     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15     1.54    17.20R    3.24  
Birmingham      12   12   -4      43.46     8.98    -8.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     1.67    10.58R    1.51  
Bolton          11   11   -9      38.71     9.22   -35.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.68    27.09R    6.49  
Hull            12   11  -15      28.15     7.27   -53.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    75.28R   37.22  
West_Ham        12   10   -4      44.11     8.86    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.18     1.82     9.70R    1.63  
Wolverhampton   12   10  -10      32.36     8.09   -38.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    53.83R   17.26  
Portsmouth      12    7   -8      29.74     8.09   -30.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    64.73R   26.98  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Barnsley vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        16   33  +15      93.98     9.13    45.42    44.66    69.38    96.91    78.76P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        16   31  +17      89.64     9.58    47.02    27.34    51.75    91.78    63.38P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          16   27  +14      83.42     9.59    41.94    10.00    25.66    79.62    39.82P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              16   27  +12      82.52     9.87    36.89     8.76    22.65    76.61    36.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        16   27   +9      79.25    10.21    26.74     4.98    14.14    64.37    26.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        16   27   +5      74.47     9.94    15.06     1.62     5.63    44.48    15.12P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_City     16   26   +4      72.36    10.03    12.37     1.05     3.86    36.06    11.10P    0.13R    0.01  
Nottm_Forest     16   25   +3      69.60     9.92     9.02     0.47     1.84    26.24     7.47P    0.20R    0.02  
Swansea          16   25   +2      68.04     9.70     6.48     0.29     1.48    20.32     6.28P    0.25R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    16   24   +5      66.57    10.17     7.38     0.37     1.43    18.70     5.15P    0.64R    0.06  
Preston          16   24   +1      64.93    10.07     0.52     0.20     0.88    14.16     3.27P    0.96R    0.09  
Watford          16   24   -2      62.58     9.90    -7.28     0.12     0.51     9.33     1.97P    1.71R    0.21  
Crystal_Palace   16   22   -1      64.18    10.10     1.74     0.11     0.62    12.32     3.09P    1.10R    0.10  
Sheff_Utd        16   18   -3      56.16    10.00    -9.62     0.01     0.08     3.30     0.59P    7.01R    1.31  
Barnsley         16   18   -8      49.07     9.54   -26.59     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.07P   22.26R    5.49  
Sheff_Wed        16   17   -2      54.88     9.68    -7.86     0.01     0.04     2.02     0.30P    8.13R    1.61  
Coventry         16   17   -7      50.56     9.57   -19.19     0.00     0.02     0.74     0.14P   17.70R    4.19  
Derby            16   17   -8      47.41     9.27   -26.24     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.04P   27.29R    7.42  
Scunthorpe       16   17  -12      48.83     9.69   -30.48     0.00     0.01     0.55     0.08P   24.40R    6.84  
Doncaster        16   15   -3      51.35     9.74    -9.84     0.00     0.01     1.07     0.25P   14.82R    3.36  
Plymouth         16   15  -11      45.12     9.30   -28.59     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   36.59R   12.08  
Reading          16   14  -10      45.26     9.60   -25.15     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   35.92R   11.87  
Ipswich          16   12  -11      40.18     9.32   -34.93     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   57.19R   27.77  
Peterborough     16   11   -9      43.27     9.79   -24.82     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   43.64R   17.54  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 November 2009, Brentford vs Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     15   36  +21     103.81     8.89    61.21    73.32    88.68    99.63    92.43P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         16   32  +13      89.65     9.27    41.76     9.39    36.25    91.64    51.00P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       16   29  +13      88.70     9.04    45.05     7.65    32.19    91.10    50.00P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          16   29   +1      73.44     9.63     6.43     0.26     2.03    36.39     7.47P    0.08R    0.00  
Norwich          16   28  +10      76.85     9.71    22.77     0.76     4.67    52.37    13.25P    0.03R    0.00  
Huddersfield     16   27  +19      87.38     9.10    52.97     7.54    28.42    89.00    47.96P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         16   25  +10      77.68     9.67    27.81     0.89     5.76    57.15    20.39P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   16   25   -2      64.79     9.83    -6.19     0.03     0.36    11.80     1.79P    1.13R    0.02  
Hartlepool       16   23   +2      60.92     9.61    -2.63     0.01     0.09     6.02     1.25P    2.41R    0.02  
Walsall          16   23   +1      65.63     9.89     3.46     0.04     0.34    13.83     2.66P    1.03R    0.01  
Swindon          15   22   -1      63.61    10.22    -3.07     0.03     0.33    10.26     1.97P    2.28R    0.04  
Yeovil           16   21   -1      59.71     9.93    -4.61     0.01     0.09     5.31     0.92P    4.00R    0.08  
Southend         16   20   +1      61.33     9.78     1.00     0.00     0.12     6.84     1.44P    2.62R    0.04  
Oldham           16   20   -3      56.48     9.53    -8.26     0.00     0.03     2.37     0.47P    6.63R    0.14  
Gillingham       16   18   -3      58.83    10.03    -4.09     0.00     0.05     4.29     0.77P    5.41R    0.12  
Brentford        16   18   -5      53.39     9.54   -13.89     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.19P   12.14R    0.42  
Exeter           16   18   -6      54.39     9.80   -13.77     0.00     0.01     1.67     0.27P   11.45R    0.29  
Carlisle         16   17   -4      51.86     9.54   -15.72     0.00     0.01     0.93     0.15P   15.92R    0.59  
Leyton_Orient    16   16  -12      47.37     9.31   -30.48     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P   31.57R    2.17  
Brighton         15   14   -9      41.24     9.20   -39.50     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   59.02R    7.03  
Stockport        16   14  -13      39.78     8.66   -39.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    65.81R    8.68  
Southampton      15   12   +7      66.52    10.11    28.29     0.05     0.57    17.90     5.60P    0.94R    0.02  
Tranmere         16   10  -23      28.70     7.59   -67.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.44R   57.44  
Wycombe          16    8  -16      34.49     8.76   -41.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.09R   22.90  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 November 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Dag_&_Red            16   32  +12      86.00     9.81    33.12    20.88    54.91    87.78    63.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          16   32   +7      79.55    10.12    16.71     8.03    28.82    69.03    38.22P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             16   29  +13      82.42    10.02    33.27    13.30    41.12    79.89    51.82P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            16   29   +8      80.63     9.84    23.94     8.62    32.44    74.40    43.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         16   29   +4      79.36    10.01    18.54     6.56    27.61    69.46    36.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         16   27  +19      89.60     9.12    57.19    36.06    71.90    94.74    80.11P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           16   26   +6      73.93    10.00    17.02     2.38    13.65    49.30    22.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet               16   25   +6      74.07    10.04    17.87     2.49    13.55    50.33    23.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Bury                 16   25   -1      62.63    10.10    -7.62     0.23     1.80    12.94     3.90P    0.25R    0.01  
Aldershot            16   23   +6      66.10    10.37     8.54     0.57     4.14    22.95     8.83P    0.14R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        16   22   +0      63.87    10.08     0.99     0.19     2.04    15.69     5.08P    0.23R    0.01  
Bradford             16   22   -1      65.37    10.02     2.15     0.31     2.78    19.32     6.23P    0.20R    0.02  
Port_Vale            16   20   +1      62.51    10.12     3.51     0.16     1.56    13.17     4.60P    0.33R    0.02  
Accrington_Stanley   16   20   -2      57.68    10.01    -8.89     0.05     0.53     5.78     1.63P    1.04R    0.09  
Northampton          16   19   -2      61.70    10.08    -0.22     0.08     1.21    11.25     3.35P    0.53R    0.07  
Hereford             16   19   -3      56.65     9.91    -8.52     0.02     0.32     4.57     1.23P    1.37R    0.11  
Macclesfield         16   19   -6      54.48     9.70   -15.62     0.01     0.20     2.70     0.75P    2.53R    0.28  
Crewe                16   18   -1      57.80     9.94    -4.67     0.04     0.54     6.02     1.78P    1.22R    0.09  
Morecambe            16   18   -6      59.66     9.98    -6.65     0.03     0.71     7.77     2.15P    1.10R    0.12  
Lincoln_City         16   17  -10      44.40     8.96   -28.96     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.05P   15.88R    2.42  
Cheltenham           16   16  -11      44.34     9.17   -35.15     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   16.28R    2.75  
Torquay              16   15   -5      53.85     9.83    -8.62     0.01     0.15     2.53     0.68P    2.85R    0.34  
Grimsby              16   12  -16      34.71     8.53   -50.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    62.60R   17.63  
Darlington           16    8  -18      24.81     7.18   -57.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.42R   76.03  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 November 2009, Altrincham vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         19   43  +23     100.96     7.95    57.86    67.99    98.90    78.55P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          19   38  +18      90.44     8.42    42.14    13.26    88.10    36.83P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          19   38  +14      90.74     8.41    39.14    13.48    88.86    35.55P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          19   36  +11      80.53     8.89    22.99     1.83    50.70    10.65P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              19   35   +7      81.80     8.60    22.08     2.09    56.06    13.49P    0.00     0.00  
York               20   34   +8      77.19     8.37    19.88     0.42    34.91     7.15P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   19   32   +9      72.25     8.65    13.83     0.21    17.28     3.51P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      19   30   +6      71.50     8.75    13.26     0.13    15.27     3.12P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      19   27  +11      69.00     8.78    19.11     0.09    10.53     2.38P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      18   27  +10      75.70     9.03    28.10     0.49    31.84     7.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         19   25   +1      62.48     8.67     2.58     0.00     2.30     0.49P    0.03R    0.00  
Histon             19   25   +0      62.09     8.58    -0.70     0.00     1.98     0.30P    0.08R    0.00  
Tamworth           19   25   +0      60.67     8.46    -3.08     0.00     1.37     0.23P    0.07R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       19   25   -8      55.47     8.46   -17.41     0.00     0.23     0.02P    0.55R    0.00  
Wrexham            18   22   +0      58.20     9.07    -2.35     0.00     1.06     0.20P    0.26R    0.00  
Barrow             19   22   -9      52.74     8.54   -20.12     0.00     0.13     0.01P    1.45R    0.02  
Salisbury          19   20   +0      54.28     8.55    -4.26     0.00     0.26     0.05P    0.78R    0.02  
Hayes_&_Yeading    18   17   -7      50.65     8.95   -16.14     0.00     0.13     0.03P    2.99R    0.13  
Eastbourne_Boro    19   17  -13      40.69     7.65   -33.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.15R    1.39  
Gateshead          18   15  -11      48.40     9.00   -21.20     0.00     0.08     0.01P    5.41R    0.32  
Forest_Green       19   13  -22      33.72     7.48   -52.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.16R   11.08  
Grays_Athletic     19   12  -19      35.19     7.56   -46.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.01R    8.16  
Ebbsfleet_United   19    9  -23      26.42     6.75   -51.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.44R   45.20  
Chester            20   -4   -6      27.85     7.98   -12.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.62R   33.67  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25