Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 13 November 2009 at 22:17:25 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Liverpool vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         12   30  +21      89.19     7.63    63.71    54.56    83.87    94.26    97.90    99.79     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         11   25  +22      85.75     8.14    80.23    36.31    72.37    87.86    94.56    99.13     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         12   25  +11      77.19     8.50    39.18     6.13    24.91    55.59    74.91    93.52     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       12   22   +6      67.77     9.14    24.81     0.77     4.63    15.76    33.11    67.78     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     12   21   +8      65.83     9.10    22.98     0.50     3.52    12.07    25.81    60.79     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City        11   20   +7      66.90     9.81    24.15     0.95     5.13    15.69    31.72    63.75     0.04R    0.00  
Liverpool       12   19   +9      67.68     8.92    34.26     0.76     5.12    16.16    33.51    70.32     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland      12   17   +1      52.27     9.17    -3.13     0.00     0.09     0.57     2.01    11.24     1.54R    0.13  
Stoke           12   16   -3      46.64     8.90   -12.05     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.46     3.57     5.41R    0.54  
Burnley         12   16  -10      43.55     8.98   -28.56     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.24     1.92    12.13R    1.89  
Fulham          11   15   +0      55.07     9.77     3.85     0.02     0.31     1.61     4.70    18.92     1.04R    0.09  
Everton         11   15   -2      44.21     9.10   -19.63     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.42     2.72     9.64R    1.43  
Wigan           12   14   -9      42.01     8.84   -25.13     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.16     1.25    14.50R    2.09  
Blackburn       11   13  -11      41.56     9.17   -29.32     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.16     1.33    17.36R    3.43  
Birmingham      12   12   -4      43.67     8.98    -8.62     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.15     1.63    10.37R    1.43  
Bolton          11   11   -9      38.93     9.13   -35.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.60    26.11R    5.85  
Hull            12   11  -15      28.09     7.44   -54.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    75.27R   38.48  
West_Ham        12   10   -4      44.10     8.79    -9.55     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     1.63     9.38R    1.62  
Wolverhampton   12   10  -10      32.23     8.09   -38.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05    54.28R   18.02  
Portsmouth      12    7   -8      30.17     8.17   -29.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    62.87R   25.00  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Barnsley vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        16   33  +15      94.28     9.20    45.89    45.64    70.52    96.94    79.38P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        16   31  +17      89.70     9.66    47.10    27.16    52.00    91.81    63.60P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          16   27  +14      83.43     9.57    41.83     9.80    25.62    79.86    39.76P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              16   27  +12      82.48     9.91    36.72     8.50    22.42    76.55    36.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool        16   27   +9      78.98    10.04    26.30     4.61    13.12    63.41    25.18P    0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        16   27   +5      74.67    10.02    15.38     1.79     6.02    45.71    15.75P    0.06R    0.01  
Bristol_City     16   26   +4      72.17    10.16    12.19     1.06     3.89    35.90    11.33P    0.11R    0.01  
Nottm_Forest     16   25   +3      69.27     9.84     8.60     0.40     1.74    25.30     7.04P    0.19R    0.02  
Swansea          16   25   +2      68.29     9.59     6.77     0.35     1.45    20.98     6.44P    0.23R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    16   24   +5      66.62     9.94     7.51     0.28     1.23    18.71     5.07P    0.51R    0.05  
Preston          16   24   +1      64.97    10.05     0.65     0.19     0.85    14.58     3.22P    0.97R    0.12  
Watford          16   24   -2      62.43     9.90    -7.47     0.10     0.44     9.09     1.72P    1.77R    0.20  
Crystal_Palace   16   22   -1      64.04    10.06     1.50     0.11     0.53    11.94     2.92P    1.23R    0.15  
Sheff_Utd        16   18   -3      56.24     9.87    -9.40     0.01     0.08     3.26     0.60P    6.67R    1.15  
Barnsley         16   18   -8      49.20     9.51   -26.41     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.09P   21.79R    5.50  
Sheff_Wed        16   17   -2      55.45     9.73    -6.97     0.01     0.06     2.39     0.46P    7.37R    1.40  
Coventry         16   17   -7      50.73     9.68   -18.94     0.00     0.01     0.73     0.12P   17.64R    4.11  
Derby            16   17   -8      47.60     9.42   -25.91     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.04P   26.79R    7.23  
Scunthorpe       16   17  -12      48.76     9.62   -30.67     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.07P   24.33R    7.02  
Doncaster        16   15   -3      50.87     9.67   -10.61     0.00     0.01     0.92     0.18P   15.61R    3.54  
Plymouth         16   15  -11      45.54     9.55   -27.95     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   35.05R   11.16  
Reading          16   14  -10      44.80     9.51   -25.81     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   37.51R   12.54  
Ipswich          16   12  -11      39.96     9.23   -35.39     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   58.40R   28.20  
Peterborough     16   11   -9      43.22     9.76   -24.89     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   43.73R   17.58  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 November 2009, Oldham vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     15   36  +21     104.44     8.77    62.40    75.81    90.93    99.66    94.13P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         15   29   +9      84.59     9.94    31.02     4.01    19.61    78.93    33.74P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons          15   29   +5      78.58    10.01    16.35     1.22     7.08    57.19    17.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester       15   28  +13      91.33     9.42    48.63    12.97    47.93    93.48    62.08P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          15   25   +8      77.84    10.31    27.09     1.05     7.36    55.75    17.20P    0.06R    0.00  
Huddersfield     15   24  +13      82.88    10.02    41.50     3.64    16.72    75.42    33.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         15   24  +10      78.75     9.91    28.53     1.11     8.05    59.98    23.92P    0.03R    0.00  
Swindon          15   22   -1      64.22    10.30    -1.61     0.06     0.41    11.45     2.37P    2.01R    0.02  
Bristol_Rovers   15   22   -3      63.66    10.28    -5.57     0.03     0.37    10.30     1.71P    2.15R    0.04  
Southend         15   20   +2      62.97    10.18     2.58     0.03     0.34     9.88     2.29P    2.12R    0.03  
Hartlepool       15   20   +1      60.05    10.16    -2.49     0.00     0.13     5.87     1.27P    4.00R    0.07  
Walsall          15   20   -1      63.85    10.25     1.41     0.01     0.30    10.90     2.21P    2.13R    0.03  
Oldham           15   20   -2      57.63    10.09    -7.88     0.01     0.08     3.60     0.79P    6.55R    0.24  
Yeovil           15   18   -2      56.82    10.32    -7.75     0.00     0.09     3.54     0.74P    8.08R    0.24  
Carlisle         15   17   -3      52.49    10.09   -15.11     0.00     0.01     1.35     0.28P   16.17R    0.74  
Brentford        15   17   -5      51.79     9.81   -16.24     0.00     0.01     1.00     0.20P   17.27R    0.96  
Exeter           15   17   -6      51.63    10.06   -18.95     0.00     0.01     1.00     0.16P   19.00R    0.94  
Leyton_Orient    15   16  -11      48.05     9.67   -30.71     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.04P   30.83R    2.58  
Gillingham       15   15   -4      57.30    10.41    -4.77     0.00     0.06     3.62     0.67P    8.15R    0.23  
Brighton         15   14   -9      41.39     9.31   -39.21     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   58.67R    7.88  
Stockport        15   14  -11      41.33     9.15   -36.95     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   58.86R    8.25  
Southampton      15   12   +7      66.45    10.04    28.34     0.04     0.52    16.61     5.27P    1.13R    0.02  
Tranmere         15   10  -21      28.66     7.88   -69.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.88R   63.23  
Wycombe          15    8  -10      38.31     9.46   -30.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   67.90R   14.49  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 October 2009, Bournemouth vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          15   31   +7      79.71    10.56    16.64     7.34    28.09    66.94    37.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             15   29  +14      85.96    10.28    38.04    20.10    53.31    85.75    62.39P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            15   29  +11      83.84    10.42    31.92    13.89    44.60    80.48    53.49P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         15   26  +19      91.98     9.32    60.48    43.07    77.65    95.83    84.29P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            15   26   +7      77.91    10.10    21.42     4.32    22.51    62.12    33.58P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         15   26   +3      74.21    10.46    11.54     2.28    13.60    46.66    20.43P    0.03R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           15   25   +6      76.29    10.36    20.76     3.42    18.69    56.12    28.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet               15   24   +6      75.40    10.55    19.64     2.94    16.73    52.93    26.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Bury                 15   24   -1      61.63    10.59    -9.29     0.18     1.74    11.20     3.63P    0.32R    0.01  
Aldershot            15   22   +6      68.24    10.73    11.57     0.85     6.00    28.09    11.52P    0.05R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        15   22   +1      67.49    10.37     5.60     0.46     4.17    24.00     8.53P    0.11R    0.01  
Bradford             15   21   -1      66.10    10.51     3.13     0.38     3.70    20.98     7.36P    0.18R    0.01  
Port_Vale            15   20   +2      65.65    10.31     7.27     0.26     2.99    19.45     7.56P    0.14R    0.01  
Accrington_Stanley   15   20   -1      59.50    10.48    -7.57     0.11     1.02     7.90     2.43P    0.66R    0.03  
Crewe                15   18   +0      61.30    10.50     0.34     0.11     1.45    11.07     3.50P    0.45R    0.01  
Northampton          15   18   -2      64.93    10.47     4.97     0.22     2.79    17.90     6.13P    0.28R    0.02  
Hereford             15   18   -3      55.22    10.20   -11.81     0.02     0.31     3.51     0.98P    1.76R    0.07  
Macclesfield         15   18   -6      53.78    10.17   -18.49     0.00     0.22     2.64     0.72P    2.87R    0.22  
Lincoln_City         15   16  -10      45.41     9.36   -27.82     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.05P   12.23R    1.21  
Morecambe            15   15   -7      55.68    10.39   -12.06     0.02     0.30     3.96     1.05P    2.33R    0.26  
Cheltenham           15   15  -11      44.54     9.45   -35.65     0.00     0.02     0.28     0.08P   13.97R    1.36  
Torquay              15   14   -5      52.04    10.22   -12.13     0.01     0.12     1.94     0.55P    3.68R    0.39  
Grimsby              15   11  -16      33.51     8.70   -56.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   64.80R   13.97  
Darlington           15    5  -19      21.36     7.24   -62.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.13R   82.42  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 November 2009, York vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         18   43  +25     105.30     7.71    64.93    84.69    99.76    90.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          18   35  +16      89.85     8.61    40.94     7.72    87.55    36.44P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          18   35  +12      87.89     8.73    35.64     5.11    82.79    26.00P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          18   33   +9      77.38     9.09    18.38     0.50    39.65     6.93P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              18   32   +5      79.70     9.07    19.75     0.84    49.19    10.25P    0.00     0.00  
York               19   31   +7      77.69     8.61    22.91     0.28    41.40     8.46P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   18   29   +8      70.46     8.95    12.60     0.09    15.15     2.92P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      18   27  +13      71.92     9.02    24.11     0.21    20.64     4.98P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      18   27   +4      66.76     8.92     6.71     0.04     7.61     1.45P    0.02R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      17   26  +10      76.95     9.22    29.83     0.51    40.31     9.29P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             18   25   +1      62.87     8.99    -0.78     0.01     3.55     0.54P    0.09R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       18   25   -6      59.06     9.01   -12.00     0.00     1.38     0.19P    0.25R    0.00  
Altrincham         18   24   +1      64.56     8.86     5.23     0.00     4.74     1.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Wrexham            17   22   +2      63.56     9.54     5.37     0.01     4.89     1.12P    0.09R    0.00  
Tamworth           18   22   -2      57.46     8.80    -7.79     0.00     0.92     0.14P    0.50R    0.01  
Barrow             18   21   -9      52.49     8.85   -20.82     0.00     0.18     0.03P    2.16R    0.07  
Salisbury          18   17   -1      51.77     8.73    -6.90     0.00     0.15     0.03P    2.23R    0.08  
Eastbourne_Boro    18   17  -12      42.17     8.04   -32.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.44R    1.35  
Gateshead          17   15   -9      48.12     9.06   -21.16     0.00     0.10     0.02P    6.57R    0.53  
Hayes_&_Yeading    17   14   -9      45.24     8.93   -25.24     0.00     0.02     0.00P   11.30R    0.98  
Grays_Athletic     18   12  -17      37.48     8.05   -42.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.51R    6.16  
Forest_Green       18   12  -22      32.14     7.58   -54.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.80R   18.27  
Ebbsfleet_United   18    9  -22      26.75     6.96   -53.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.60R   46.86  
Chester            19   -4   -4      30.30     8.45    -8.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.40R   25.68  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25