Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 12 November 2009 at 22:17:26 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Liverpool vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         12   30  +21      88.57     7.75    62.71    52.08    81.75    93.28    97.42    99.74     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         11   25  +22      85.77     8.14    80.09    38.27    72.39    88.04    94.65    99.13     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         12   25  +11      77.45     8.47    39.56     6.49    26.41    56.98    75.86    94.07     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham       12   22   +6      67.81     9.01    24.81     0.78     4.98    15.73    33.21    68.07     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     12   21   +8      65.42     9.19    22.12     0.48     3.29    11.56    25.03    58.85     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City        11   20   +7      66.87     9.73    23.98     0.97     5.31    15.49    31.56    63.87     0.03R    0.00  
Liverpool       12   19   +9      67.68     8.95    34.35     0.89     5.41    16.30    33.70    70.08     0.02R    0.00  
Sunderland      12   17   +1      52.38     9.23    -2.99     0.01     0.10     0.61     2.14    11.74     1.56R    0.15  
Stoke           12   16   -3      46.83     9.04   -11.66     0.00     0.02     0.15     0.58     3.99     5.30R    0.56  
Burnley         12   16  -10      43.44     8.92   -28.81     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.15     1.65    12.04R    1.98  
Fulham          11   15   +0      54.94     9.79     3.66     0.04     0.29     1.54     4.38    18.48     1.11R    0.08  
Everton         11   15   -2      44.51     9.13   -18.94     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.47     2.89     9.12R    1.34  
Wigan           12   14   -9      42.18     8.94   -24.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.16     1.41    14.28R    2.11  
Blackburn       11   13  -11      41.42     9.27   -29.31     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.23     1.51    17.84R    3.62  
Birmingham      12   12   -4      43.94     9.14    -8.27     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.24     2.06     9.84R    1.34  
Bolton          11   11   -9      39.28     9.26   -34.25     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.73    25.17R    5.61  
Hull            12   11  -15      28.40     7.40   -53.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    74.38R   36.27  
West_Ham        12   10   -4      43.82     8.84   -10.04     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     1.64    10.26R    1.66  
Wolverhampton   12   10  -10      32.23     8.08   -38.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    54.31R   18.40  
Portsmouth      12    7   -8      29.76     8.09   -29.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    64.71R   26.87  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Barnsley vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        16   33  +15      94.24     9.09    45.71    45.16    69.84    97.01    79.07P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        16   31  +17      89.90     9.54    47.52    27.20    52.07    92.22    63.73P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          16   27  +14      83.68     9.67    42.48    10.33    26.13    80.21    40.51P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              16   27  +12      82.88     9.77    37.42     8.81    23.16    77.67    37.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        16   27   +9      78.83    10.14    26.09     4.32    12.78    63.04    24.72P    0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        16   27   +5      74.77    10.06    15.54     1.70     5.90    45.94    15.59P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_City     16   26   +4      72.33    10.01    12.36     1.08     3.80    36.14    11.11P    0.11R    0.00  
Nottm_Forest     16   25   +3      69.19     9.80     8.47     0.37     1.67    24.71     6.86P    0.19R    0.00  
Swansea          16   25   +2      67.80     9.60     6.17     0.28     1.23    19.66     5.74P    0.27R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    16   24   +5      66.82    10.01     7.76     0.34     1.38    19.12     5.14P    0.49R    0.05  
Preston          16   24   +1      64.94    10.10     0.57     0.18     0.84    14.40     3.29P    0.99R    0.09  
Watford          16   24   -2      62.72     9.98    -6.97     0.09     0.46     9.64     1.84P    1.78R    0.17  
Crystal_Palace   16   22   -1      63.85    10.20     1.29     0.11     0.60    11.73     2.98P    1.37R    0.15  
Sheff_Utd        16   18   -3      56.13     9.72    -9.72     0.00     0.05     2.88     0.52P    6.47R    1.18  
Barnsley         16   18   -8      49.03     9.49   -26.68     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.07P   22.39R    5.51  
Sheff_Wed        16   17   -2      54.97     9.74    -7.89     0.01     0.05     2.20     0.46P    8.05R    1.67  
Coventry         16   17   -7      50.49     9.72   -19.17     0.00     0.01     0.72     0.13P   18.13R    4.37  
Derby            16   17   -8      47.60     9.30   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P   26.70R    7.21  
Scunthorpe       16   17  -12      48.71     9.66   -30.73     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.07P   24.52R    6.98  
Doncaster        16   15   -3      51.01     9.75   -10.35     0.00     0.01     0.95     0.20P   15.69R    3.57  
Plymouth         16   15  -11      45.56     9.31   -27.98     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   34.71R   11.18  
Reading          16   14  -10      44.95     9.47   -25.55     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   36.91R   12.41  
Ipswich          16   12  -11      40.47     9.35   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   56.04R   26.63  
Peterborough     16   11   -9      42.81     9.73   -25.69     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   45.14R   18.80  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 November 2009, Oldham vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     15   36  +21     104.24     8.90    62.06    75.00    90.30    99.64    93.57P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         15   29   +9      84.69    10.05    31.16     4.09    19.85    78.67    34.19P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons          15   29   +5      78.27    10.03    15.78     1.07     7.03    55.83    17.58P    0.03R    0.00  
Colchester       15   28  +13      91.68     9.36    49.50    13.70    49.23    93.95    63.21P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          15   25   +8      77.43    10.15    26.19     1.01     6.68    54.26    15.80P    0.06R    0.00  
Huddersfield     15   24  +13      82.73    10.04    41.25     3.69    16.35    74.51    32.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         15   24  +10      78.79    10.03    28.59     1.19     8.02    60.05    24.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon          15   22   -1      64.29    10.32    -1.40     0.05     0.47    11.58     2.41P    1.90R    0.04  
Bristol_Rovers   15   22   -3      63.89    10.36    -5.15     0.04     0.41    10.87     1.76P    2.18R    0.02  
Southend         15   20   +2      63.57    10.29     3.58     0.04     0.39    10.92     2.59P    2.09R    0.05  
Hartlepool       15   20   +1      59.85    10.16    -2.90     0.01     0.13     5.72     1.22P    4.10R    0.09  
Walsall          15   20   -1      63.94    10.36     1.46     0.05     0.33    11.38     2.33P    2.13R    0.03  
Oldham           15   20   -2      57.54    10.07    -7.97     0.01     0.08     3.28     0.70P    6.64R    0.20  
Yeovil           15   18   -2      57.10    10.40    -7.30     0.00     0.06     3.86     0.68P    7.66R    0.24  
Carlisle         15   17   -3      52.22    10.02   -15.58     0.00     0.02     1.18     0.22P   16.63R    0.78  
Brentford        15   17   -5      51.72     9.67   -16.32     0.00     0.02     0.83     0.14P   17.04R    1.00  
Exeter           15   17   -6      51.43     9.99   -19.26     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.15P   19.33R    0.90  
Leyton_Orient    15   16  -11      48.37     9.65   -30.23     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.04P   29.49R    2.42  
Gillingham       15   15   -4      57.25    10.40    -4.85     0.00     0.06     3.65     0.68P    8.07R    0.20  
Brighton         15   14   -9      41.04     9.14   -39.91     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   59.76R    8.62  
Stockport        15   14  -11      41.30     9.06   -36.83     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   58.68R    7.96  
Southampton      15   12   +7      66.74    10.33    28.89     0.05     0.57    18.38     5.91P    1.24R    0.04  
Tranmere         15   10  -21      28.87     7.92   -69.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.49R   62.17  
Wycombe          15    8  -10      38.15     9.47   -31.15     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   68.45R   15.25  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 October 2009, Bournemouth vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          15   31   +7      80.21    10.54    17.40     7.87    29.87    68.48    38.92P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             15   29  +14      86.01    10.34    38.10    20.03    53.41    85.71    62.68P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            15   29  +11      83.44    10.26    31.23    12.59    43.14    79.56    52.35P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         15   26  +19      92.07     9.28    60.83    43.78    78.13    95.81    84.59P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            15   26   +7      78.11    10.09    21.75     4.56    22.87    62.92    33.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         15   26   +3      74.18    10.45    11.58     2.31    13.40    46.88    20.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           15   25   +6      76.14    10.26    20.53     3.37    18.51    55.57    27.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet               15   24   +6      75.47    10.38    19.65     2.78    16.33    52.88    26.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Bury                 15   24   -1      62.10    10.40    -8.46     0.21     1.66    11.56     3.55P    0.23R    0.00  
Aldershot            15   22   +6      68.08    10.73    11.21     0.83     5.88    27.76    11.25P    0.06R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        15   22   +1      67.52    10.53     5.71     0.49     4.36    24.60     8.91P    0.11R    0.00  
Bradford             15   21   -1      66.12    10.49     3.17     0.37     3.64    20.81     7.32P    0.15R    0.00  
Port_Vale            15   20   +2      65.20    10.46     6.61     0.32     2.88    18.47     7.18P    0.16R    0.01  
Accrington_Stanley   15   20   -1      59.58    10.56    -7.44     0.08     0.98     8.20     2.45P    0.64R    0.03  
Crewe                15   18   +0      61.32    10.49     0.35     0.14     1.37    10.89     3.46P    0.46R    0.02  
Northampton          15   18   -2      65.07    10.42     5.32     0.23     2.71    18.01     6.11P    0.24R    0.01  
Hereford             15   18   -3      55.04    10.15   -12.13     0.02     0.25     3.14     0.87P    1.65R    0.10  
Macclesfield         15   18   -6      53.63    10.07   -18.69     0.01     0.17     2.41     0.60P    2.89R    0.22  
Lincoln_City         15   16  -10      45.44     9.46   -27.76     0.00     0.03     0.35     0.11P   12.20R    1.18  
Morecambe            15   15   -7      55.64    10.52   -12.02     0.01     0.33     4.00     1.12P    2.50R    0.29  
Cheltenham           15   15  -11      44.42     9.46   -35.74     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P   14.11R    1.55  
Torquay              15   14   -5      52.01    10.19   -12.19     0.00     0.08     1.77     0.48P    3.76R    0.39  
Grimsby              15   11  -16      33.44     8.59   -56.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.50R   13.86  
Darlington           15    5  -19      21.47     7.19   -62.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.30R   82.33  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 November 2009, York vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         18   43  +25     105.22     7.72    64.84    84.70    99.75    90.39P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          18   35  +16      89.79     8.61    40.79     7.50    87.47    35.85P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          18   35  +12      87.82     8.73    35.58     5.16    82.47    26.16P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          18   33   +9      77.50     9.08    18.47     0.46    39.93     7.11P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              18   32   +5      79.81     9.02    19.87     0.95    49.96    10.70P    0.00     0.00  
York               19   31   +7      77.55     8.63    22.57     0.33    40.98     8.24P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   18   29   +8      70.35     8.97    12.41     0.10    15.04     2.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      18   27  +13      72.08     9.01    24.39     0.19    21.26     5.04P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      18   27   +4      66.91     8.93     6.86     0.03     7.71     1.42P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      17   26  +10      76.98     9.16    29.77     0.56    40.18     9.46P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             18   25   +1      62.96     9.02    -0.56     0.01     3.74     0.57P    0.06R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       18   25   -6      58.76     8.92   -12.46     0.00     1.14     0.17P    0.27R    0.00  
Altrincham         18   24   +1      64.49     8.84     5.16     0.01     4.54     0.95P    0.05R    0.00  
Wrexham            17   22   +2      63.05     9.54     4.70     0.01     4.40     0.93P    0.11R    0.00  
Tamworth           18   22   -2      57.60     8.71    -7.58     0.00     0.90     0.13P    0.42R    0.01  
Barrow             18   21   -9      52.20     8.78   -21.23     0.00     0.19     0.02P    2.14R    0.06  
Salisbury          18   17   -1      51.62     8.80    -7.09     0.00     0.18     0.04P    2.50R    0.15  
Eastbourne_Boro    18   17  -12      42.26     7.98   -32.58     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.67R    1.27  
Gateshead          17   15   -9      48.22     9.05   -20.88     0.00     0.10     0.02P    6.27R    0.55  
Hayes_&_Yeading    17   14   -9      45.33     9.00   -25.08     0.00     0.05     0.01P   11.63R    1.08  
Grays_Athletic     18   12  -17      37.57     8.02   -42.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.56R    6.54  
Forest_Green       18   12  -22      32.51     7.58   -53.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.69R   16.97  
Ebbsfleet_United   18    9  -22      26.81     6.89   -53.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.85R   46.91  
Chester            19   -4   -4      30.33     8.50    -8.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.76R   26.46  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25