Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 11 November 2009 at 22:17:28 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Liverpool vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         12   30  +21      89.07     7.64    63.52    54.22    83.88    94.22    97.89    99.74     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         11   25  +22      85.71     8.11    79.77    36.85    72.32    88.08    94.83    99.13     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         12   25  +11      77.11     8.58    39.05     5.97    25.11    55.71    74.94    93.32     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       12   22   +6      67.50     9.07    24.39     0.69     4.56    15.33    32.44    67.22     0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     12   21   +8      65.64     9.10    22.58     0.51     3.38    11.85    25.38    60.15     0.02R    0.00  
Man_City        11   20   +7      66.92     9.72    24.14     0.92     5.08    15.84    31.67    63.86     0.03R    0.00  
Liverpool       12   19   +9      67.64     8.90    34.26     0.80     5.20    16.28    34.05    70.19     0.01R    0.00  
Sunderland      12   17   +1      52.38     9.25    -2.86     0.01     0.13     0.66     2.25    11.83     1.62R    0.13  
Stoke           12   16   -3      46.75     9.04   -11.84     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.55     3.85     5.64R    0.60  
Burnley         12   16  -10      43.10     8.90   -29.34     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     1.48    13.02R    2.07  
Fulham          11   15   +0      55.23     9.68     4.13     0.02     0.29     1.60     4.62    19.15     0.85R    0.06  
Everton         11   15   -2      44.78     9.18   -18.54     0.00     0.02     0.15     0.54     3.08     8.78R    1.26  
Wigan           12   14   -9      41.79     8.78   -25.67     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     1.19    15.03R    2.24  
Blackburn       11   13  -11      41.57     9.27   -29.13     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.17     1.42    17.46R    3.42  
Birmingham      12   12   -4      43.81     9.13    -8.41     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.17     1.88    10.51R    1.55  
Bolton          11   11   -9      39.14     9.38   -34.63     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.07     0.81    26.36R    6.05  
Hull            12   11  -15      27.88     7.31   -54.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    75.88R   39.07  
West_Ham        12   10   -4      44.06     8.73    -9.55     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.17     1.58     9.33R    1.46  
Wolverhampton   12   10  -10      32.72     8.19   -37.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    51.93R   16.54  
Portsmouth      12    7   -8      29.98     8.14   -29.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    63.51R   25.53  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Barnsley vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        16   33  +15      94.15     9.02    45.51    45.11    70.08    97.18    79.21P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        16   31  +17      89.52     9.59    46.89    26.40    50.75    91.63    62.80P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          16   27  +14      83.57     9.64    42.20    10.41    26.28    80.20    40.64P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              16   27  +12      82.81     9.84    37.32     9.38    23.48    77.59    37.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        16   27   +9      79.03    10.16    26.46     4.75    13.62    63.46    25.48P    0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        16   27   +5      74.46     9.84    15.07     1.48     5.40    44.23    14.41P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_City     16   26   +4      72.16    10.11    12.10     0.96     3.91    35.50    11.14P    0.11R    0.01  
Nottm_Forest     16   25   +3      69.15     9.91     8.41     0.40     1.73    25.15     7.10P    0.25R    0.02  
Swansea          16   25   +2      68.25     9.76     6.74     0.41     1.54    21.36     6.51P    0.23R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    16   24   +5      66.66     9.98     7.52     0.31     1.28    18.53     4.98P    0.57R    0.06  
Preston          16   24   +1      65.06     9.96     0.81     0.19     0.84    14.48     3.30P    0.84R    0.09  
Watford          16   24   -2      62.24     9.98    -7.78     0.10     0.40     9.27     1.78P    1.81R    0.20  
Crystal_Palace   16   22   -1      64.04    10.10     1.47     0.09     0.55    12.23     3.01P    1.19R    0.11  
Sheff_Utd        16   18   -3      56.19     9.83    -9.56     0.01     0.07     3.08     0.57P    6.57R    1.17  
Barnsley         16   18   -8      49.42     9.51   -25.85     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.09P   21.16R    5.18  
Sheff_Wed        16   17   -2      55.03     9.80    -7.86     0.01     0.04     2.23     0.42P    8.25R    1.61  
Coventry         16   17   -7      50.47     9.71   -19.24     0.00     0.01     0.78     0.16P   18.41R    4.50  
Derby            16   17   -8      47.56     9.32   -26.06     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.02P   26.83R    7.53  
Scunthorpe       16   17  -12      48.52     9.68   -31.05     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.04P   25.74R    7.37  
Doncaster        16   15   -3      51.64     9.72    -9.50     0.00     0.01     1.13     0.22P   13.89R    3.10  
Plymouth         16   15  -11      45.38     9.57   -28.26     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.02P   36.04R   12.02  
Reading          16   14  -10      44.73     9.50   -25.92     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.04P   38.11R   12.97  
Ipswich          16   12  -11      40.51     9.41   -34.31     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P   55.92R   26.51  
Peterborough     16   11   -9      43.17     9.78   -25.09     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.05P   44.05R   17.54  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 November 2009, Oldham vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     15   36  +21     104.07     8.88    61.65    74.75    90.30    99.65    93.46P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         15   29   +9      84.40    10.13    30.69     4.32    19.94    77.88    34.28P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons          15   29   +5      78.40    10.16    16.07     1.13     7.36    56.30    18.37P    0.03R    0.00  
Colchester       15   28  +13      91.37     9.43    48.76    13.57    48.11    93.72    62.22P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          15   25   +8      77.45    10.09    26.25     0.99     6.61    54.65    15.72P    0.05R    0.00  
Huddersfield     15   24  +13      83.05     9.85    41.88     3.75    17.30    76.14    33.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         15   24  +10      78.72     9.96    28.52     1.27     8.11    59.99    24.26P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon          15   22   -1      64.30    10.35    -1.47     0.03     0.40    11.99     2.33P    2.04R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers   15   22   -3      63.64    10.28    -5.65     0.04     0.40    10.48     1.77P    2.23R    0.04  
Southend         15   20   +2      63.62    10.03     3.68     0.04     0.31    10.66     2.35P    1.71R    0.03  
Hartlepool       15   20   +1      59.82    10.00    -2.89     0.02     0.13     5.37     1.12P    4.03R    0.07  
Walsall          15   20   -1      63.64    10.40     1.03     0.02     0.33    11.06     2.34P    2.20R    0.02  
Oldham           15   20   -2      58.23    10.05    -6.93     0.01     0.07     3.82     0.87P    5.93R    0.18  
Yeovil           15   18   -2      57.23    10.32    -7.06     0.00     0.09     3.77     0.72P    7.36R    0.20  
Carlisle         15   17   -3      52.57     9.95   -14.94     0.00     0.01     1.32     0.22P   15.83R    0.67  
Brentford        15   17   -5      51.97     9.67   -15.88     0.00     0.01     0.87     0.16P   16.83R    0.90  
Exeter           15   17   -6      50.97     9.82   -20.05     0.00     0.01     0.78     0.13P   20.60R    1.04  
Leyton_Orient    15   16  -11      48.27     9.71   -30.27     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.06P   29.91R    2.45  
Gillingham       15   15   -4      57.08    10.46    -5.15     0.00     0.04     3.61     0.65P    8.75R    0.25  
Brighton         15   14   -9      41.48     9.30   -39.07     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   58.34R    7.91  
Stockport        15   14  -11      41.52     9.12   -36.47     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   58.04R    7.75  
Southampton      15   12   +7      66.58    10.06    28.56     0.05     0.48    17.45     5.51P    1.06R    0.02  
Tranmere         15   10  -21      28.55     7.76   -69.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.35R   63.86  
Wycombe          15    8  -10      37.99     9.38   -31.30     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   69.68R   14.60  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 October 2009, Bournemouth vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          15   31   +7      79.66    10.57    16.54     7.27    28.30    66.91    37.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             15   29  +14      86.36    10.42    38.54    20.96    55.06    86.26    63.96P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            15   29  +11      83.57    10.51    31.51    13.11    43.57    79.36    52.39P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         15   26  +19      92.20     9.33    61.23    43.47    78.31    96.11    84.92P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            15   26   +7      78.27    10.07    22.00     4.64    23.21    63.29    34.45P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         15   26   +3      74.09    10.54    11.40     2.32    13.34    46.67    20.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           15   25   +6      76.18    10.27    20.51     3.25    18.05    55.91    27.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet               15   24   +6      75.46    10.43    19.62     2.58    16.16    53.36    26.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Bury                 15   24   -1      61.16    10.31   -10.07     0.15     1.36     9.90     3.07P    0.33R    0.00  
Aldershot            15   22   +6      67.85    10.75    10.76     0.68     5.57    26.94    10.59P    0.05R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        15   22   +1      68.10    10.52     6.61     0.50     4.74    26.52     9.62P    0.08R    0.00  
Bradford             15   21   -1      66.21    10.38     3.25     0.33     3.53    20.85     7.25P    0.16R    0.01  
Port_Vale            15   20   +2      64.96    10.50     6.30     0.21     2.71    18.16     6.94P    0.20R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   15   20   -1      59.43    10.46    -7.78     0.11     0.94     7.96     2.31P    0.64R    0.03  
Crewe                15   18   +0      60.93    10.45    -0.25     0.11     1.34    10.47     3.32P    0.51R    0.01  
Northampton          15   18   -2      65.25    10.66     5.56     0.26     2.96    19.05     6.54P    0.31R    0.03  
Hereford             15   18   -3      55.20    10.12   -11.86     0.02     0.25     3.40     0.98P    1.59R    0.09  
Macclesfield         15   18   -6      53.92    10.15   -18.08     0.02     0.23     2.54     0.72P    2.88R    0.18  
Lincoln_City         15   16  -10      45.73     9.26   -27.29     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P   10.86R    0.87  
Morecambe            15   15   -7      56.35    10.31   -10.92     0.01     0.31     4.14     1.13P    1.97R    0.20  
Cheltenham           15   15  -11      44.58     9.62   -35.67     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P   14.08R    1.45  
Torquay              15   14   -5      51.80    10.17   -12.54     0.00     0.06     1.64     0.40P    3.94R    0.34  
Grimsby              15   11  -16      33.35     8.51   -56.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    65.88R   13.37  
Darlington           15    5  -19      21.05     7.19   -62.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.50R   83.41  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 November 2009, York vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         18   43  +25     105.19     7.70    64.69    84.43    99.78    90.17P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          18   35  +16      89.77     8.70    40.73     7.84    87.29    36.36P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          18   35  +12      87.80     8.80    35.44     5.26    82.35    25.98P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          18   33   +9      77.39     9.14    18.34     0.51    39.89     6.96P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              18   32   +5      79.88     8.94    20.03     0.81    50.55    10.57P    0.00     0.00  
York               19   31   +7      77.33     8.62    22.22     0.27    39.63     8.05P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   18   29   +8      70.18     8.99    12.18     0.09    14.52     2.71P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      18   27  +13      72.09     9.09    24.42     0.22    21.26     5.08P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      18   27   +4      66.98     8.92     7.03     0.01     7.84     1.42P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      17   26  +10      77.12     9.10    30.01     0.53    40.45     9.60P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             18   25   +1      63.19     9.03    -0.15     0.01     4.00     0.62P    0.06R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       18   25   -6      58.88     8.88   -12.29     0.00     1.10     0.14P    0.26R    0.01  
Altrincham         18   24   +1      64.94     9.00     5.73     0.01     5.48     1.12P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham            17   22   +2      63.07     9.45     4.69     0.01     4.38     0.98P    0.11R    0.00  
Tamworth           18   22   -2      57.69     8.73    -7.37     0.00     0.96     0.15P    0.38R    0.01  
Barrow             18   21   -9      52.23     8.83   -21.17     0.00     0.18     0.02P    2.14R    0.09  
Salisbury          18   17   -1      51.59     8.81    -7.13     0.00     0.20     0.06P    2.35R    0.11  
Eastbourne_Boro    18   17  -12      42.06     8.01   -32.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.92R    1.43  
Gateshead          17   15   -9      48.35     9.17   -20.75     0.00     0.11     0.02P    6.37R    0.53  
Hayes_&_Yeading    17   14   -9      45.37     8.92   -25.06     0.00     0.03     0.00    10.90R    0.86  
Grays_Athletic     18   12  -17      37.60     7.95   -42.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.92R    6.10  
Forest_Green       18   12  -22      32.16     7.52   -54.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.97R   18.15  
Ebbsfleet_United   18    9  -22      26.77     6.85   -53.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.81R   46.86  
Chester            19   -4   -4      30.28     8.43    -8.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.78R   25.86  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25