Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 10 November 2009 at 22:17:28 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Liverpool vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         12   30  +21      88.70     7.70    62.79    52.66    81.88    93.06    97.48    99.75     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         11   25  +22      85.77     8.11    80.42    37.51    72.29    87.92    94.61    99.19     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         12   25  +11      77.50     8.48    39.85     6.62    26.31    56.77    75.72    93.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       12   22   +6      67.86     9.12    24.94     0.79     4.73    15.54    33.09    68.10     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     12   21   +8      65.81     9.09    22.85     0.55     3.59    11.97    25.55    60.19     0.02R    0.00  
Man_City        11   20   +7      67.02     9.68    24.25     1.03     5.25    15.61    31.33    64.15     0.02R    0.01  
Liverpool       12   19   +9      67.87     8.95    34.70     0.79     5.46    16.48    34.16    70.37     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland      12   17   +1      52.31     9.28    -3.17     0.01     0.14     0.69     2.13    11.38     1.56R    0.11  
Stoke           12   16   -3      46.47     8.99   -12.26     0.01     0.03     0.14     0.46     3.50     5.69R    0.58  
Burnley         12   16  -10      43.31     8.78   -29.13     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     1.48    11.97R    1.83  
Fulham          11   15   +0      54.79     9.82     3.33     0.03     0.29     1.48     4.22    18.23     1.13R    0.08  
Everton         11   15   -2      44.32     9.02   -19.46     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.37     2.40     9.27R    1.46  
Wigan           12   14   -9      41.87     8.87   -25.34     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     1.20    15.02R    2.29  
Blackburn       11   13  -11      41.32     9.16   -29.53     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.16     1.39    17.66R    3.52  
Birmingham      12   12   -4      44.34     9.04    -7.69     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.21     2.07     9.09R    1.16  
Bolton          11   11   -9      39.28     9.26   -34.33     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.78    25.06R    5.43  
Hull            12   11  -15      27.97     7.32   -54.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    76.02R   38.33  
West_Ham        12   10   -4      44.32     8.74    -8.97     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.14     1.75     8.83R    1.37  
Wolverhampton   12   10  -10      32.04     8.04   -39.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    54.99R   18.35  
Portsmouth      12    7   -8      30.02     8.14   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    63.63R   25.47  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Barnsley vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        16   33  +15      94.37     9.20    46.01    46.56    70.65    96.83    79.36P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        16   31  +17      89.31     9.57    46.49    25.33    49.86    91.31    61.70P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          16   27  +14      83.43     9.67    41.99     9.91    25.61    79.53    40.06P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              16   27  +12      82.89     9.92    37.36     9.23    23.80    77.62    38.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        16   27   +9      79.24    10.11    26.72     4.66    13.68    65.00    25.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        16   27   +5      74.60    10.07    15.22     1.75     5.96    44.92    15.49P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_City     16   26   +4      72.28    10.16    12.31     1.19     4.12    35.80    11.55P    0.15R    0.00  
Nottm_Forest     16   25   +3      69.38     9.94     8.71     0.41     1.86    25.78     7.43P    0.23R    0.01  
Swansea          16   25   +2      67.77     9.71     6.11     0.27     1.19    19.91     5.86P    0.30R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    16   24   +5      66.39    10.06     7.06     0.30     1.22    18.13     4.86P    0.67R    0.05  
Preston          16   24   +1      65.05    10.02     0.76     0.18     0.87    14.55     3.33P    0.95R    0.09  
Watford          16   24   -2      62.40     9.99    -7.53     0.08     0.46     9.25     1.73P    1.90R    0.24  
Crystal_Palace   16   22   -1      64.00    10.22     1.44     0.12     0.54    12.21     3.12P    1.29R    0.16  
Sheff_Utd        16   18   -3      56.20     9.80    -9.54     0.00     0.06     2.98     0.50P    6.66R    1.12  
Barnsley         16   18   -8      48.97     9.48   -26.90     0.01     0.02     0.54     0.12P   22.61R    5.52  
Sheff_Wed        16   17   -2      55.44     9.79    -7.08     0.01     0.06     2.39     0.50P    7.55R    1.45  
Coventry         16   17   -7      50.51     9.74   -19.28     0.00     0.02     0.89     0.16P   18.16R    4.49  
Derby            16   17   -8      47.63     9.35   -25.95     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P   26.55R    7.16  
Scunthorpe       16   17  -12      49.19     9.65   -29.71     0.00     0.01     0.54     0.07P   23.11R    6.36  
Doncaster        16   15   -3      51.22     9.75   -10.08     0.00     0.02     1.02     0.24P   15.28R    3.24  
Plymouth         16   15  -11      45.35     9.50   -28.27     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   36.06R   11.60  
Reading          16   14  -10      44.96     9.45   -25.51     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   36.68R   12.12  
Ipswich          16   12  -11      39.90     9.35   -35.44     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   58.51R   28.84  
Peterborough     16   11   -9      43.29     9.90   -24.90     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   43.26R   17.52  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 November 2009, Oldham vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     15   36  +21     104.20     8.80    61.81    74.73    90.41    99.68    93.68P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         15   29   +9      84.98     9.98    31.69     4.51    20.25    79.82    34.62P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons          15   29   +5      78.21    10.22    15.80     1.08     6.96    55.29    17.48P    0.03R    0.00  
Colchester       15   28  +13      91.75     9.34    49.47    13.49    49.40    94.26    63.21P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          15   25   +8      77.50    10.17    26.41     0.97     6.44    54.53    15.79P    0.04R    0.00  
Huddersfield     15   24  +13      83.20     9.93    42.24     3.88    16.70    76.41    33.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         15   24  +10      78.70     9.90    28.43     1.12     7.70    59.60    23.61P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon          15   22   -1      64.00    10.31    -2.01     0.05     0.39    11.17     2.31P    2.18R    0.04  
Bristol_Rovers   15   22   -3      63.81    10.20    -5.29     0.03     0.35    10.55     1.78P    2.00R    0.03  
Southend         15   20   +2      63.35    10.11     3.20     0.02     0.31    10.51     2.26P    1.93R    0.02  
Hartlepool       15   20   +1      60.06    10.24    -2.64     0.02     0.14     5.97     1.36P    4.21R    0.09  
Walsall          15   20   -1      63.85    10.33     1.31     0.02     0.26    10.85     2.26P    2.11R    0.02  
Oldham           15   20   -2      57.78    10.05    -7.51     0.01     0.07     3.64     0.77P    6.15R    0.19  
Yeovil           15   18   -2      57.13    10.13    -7.27     0.01     0.06     3.46     0.70P    7.00R    0.21  
Carlisle         15   17   -3      52.31    10.02   -15.46     0.00     0.01     1.30     0.21P   16.54R    0.82  
Brentford        15   17   -5      52.03     9.88   -15.84     0.00     0.01     0.99     0.18P   16.74R    0.86  
Exeter           15   17   -6      51.09     9.77   -19.66     0.00     0.01     0.74     0.12P   20.21R    0.99  
Leyton_Orient    15   16  -11      48.58     9.79   -29.86     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.05P   28.73R    2.39  
Gillingham       15   15   -4      57.04    10.41    -5.18     0.00     0.05     3.39     0.74P    8.56R    0.25  
Brighton         15   14   -9      41.15     9.23   -39.74     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   59.27R    8.04  
Stockport        15   14  -11      41.43     9.05   -36.82     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   58.37R    7.68  
Southampton      15   12   +7      66.59    10.06    28.63     0.05     0.49    17.31     5.37P    1.09R    0.03  
Tranmere         15   10  -21      28.51     7.79   -70.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.05R   63.62  
Wycombe          15    8  -10      37.89     9.29   -31.54     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   69.76R   14.72  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 October 2009, Bournemouth vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          15   31   +7      79.89    10.61    16.87     7.65    29.06    67.00    38.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             15   29  +14      86.58    10.26    39.04    22.12    55.51    86.96    64.41P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            15   29  +11      83.42    10.43    31.23    13.21    43.01    79.04    52.07P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         15   26  +19      91.55     9.25    59.80    41.02    76.47    95.78    83.56P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            15   26   +7      78.08    10.10    21.66     4.61    23.06    62.50    33.75P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         15   26   +3      74.37    10.30    11.83     2.10    13.40    47.58    20.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           15   25   +6      75.90    10.34    20.12     3.47    17.77    54.56    26.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet               15   24   +6      75.55    10.39    19.80     2.94    16.72    53.30    26.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Bury                 15   24   -1      62.05    10.51    -8.57     0.21     1.80    11.43     3.68P    0.31R    0.01  
Aldershot            15   22   +6      67.93    10.84    10.98     0.86     5.98    27.43    11.37P    0.07R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        15   22   +1      67.78    10.43     6.09     0.51     4.35    24.86     8.95P    0.08R    0.01  
Bradford             15   21   -1      66.37    10.49     3.55     0.44     3.82    21.42     7.44P    0.16R    0.02  
Port_Vale            15   20   +2      65.30    10.41     6.79     0.26     2.88    19.02     7.22P    0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   15   20   -1      59.21    10.74    -8.17     0.12     1.10     8.25     2.62P    0.70R    0.04  
Crewe                15   18   +0      60.42    10.49    -1.34     0.12     1.19     9.45     3.03P    0.57R    0.04  
Northampton          15   18   -2      65.35    10.55     5.92     0.32     2.98    19.06     6.62P    0.26R    0.01  
Hereford             15   18   -3      55.17    10.10   -11.80     0.01     0.30     3.33     0.93P    1.66R    0.08  
Macclesfield         15   18   -6      53.86    10.04   -18.25     0.01     0.17     2.44     0.63P    2.93R    0.17  
Lincoln_City         15   16  -10      45.24     9.30   -27.91     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.07P   12.54R    1.24  
Morecambe            15   15   -7      56.00    10.40   -11.47     0.01     0.31     4.17     1.08P    2.05R    0.19  
Cheltenham           15   15  -11      44.68     9.54   -35.36     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.05P   13.67R    1.35  
Torquay              15   14   -5      52.09    10.24   -12.01     0.01     0.10     1.87     0.45P    3.80R    0.43  
Grimsby              15   11  -16      33.55     8.66   -56.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   64.80R   13.29  
Darlington           15    5  -19      21.20     7.20   -62.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.24R   83.13  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 November 2009, York vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         18   43  +25     105.39     7.72    65.12    85.15    99.77    90.41P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          18   35  +16      89.47     8.66    40.32     7.15    86.47    35.02P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          18   35  +12      87.97     8.86    35.84     5.19    82.81    26.44P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          18   33   +9      77.47     9.08    18.46     0.49    40.01     7.36P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              18   32   +5      79.80     9.06    19.94     0.92    50.14    10.56P    0.00     0.00  
York               19   31   +7      77.48     8.58    22.52     0.31    40.27     8.05P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   18   29   +8      70.61     9.03    12.83     0.10    15.90     3.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      18   27  +13      71.76     8.99    23.80     0.19    20.34     4.86P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      18   27   +4      66.84     8.88     6.77     0.03     7.86     1.55P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      17   26  +10      77.05     9.18    29.92     0.46    40.38     9.69P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             18   25   +1      63.07     9.04    -0.36     0.01     3.72     0.60P    0.06R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       18   25   -6      59.13     8.89   -11.89     0.00     1.09     0.13P    0.27R    0.00  
Altrincham         18   24   +1      64.68     9.02     5.40     0.01     5.03     1.04P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham            17   22   +2      63.29     9.56     5.05     0.00     4.72     0.99P    0.10R    0.00  
Tamworth           18   22   -2      57.60     8.67    -7.59     0.00     0.92     0.13P    0.37R    0.02  
Barrow             18   21   -9      52.61     8.92   -20.54     0.00     0.25     0.04P    2.05R    0.08  
Salisbury          18   17   -1      51.60     8.91    -7.11     0.00     0.19     0.04P    2.41R    0.12  
Eastbourne_Boro    18   17  -12      42.04     7.92   -32.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.74R    1.44  
Gateshead          17   15   -9      48.33     9.13   -20.74     0.00     0.10     0.01P    6.14R    0.48  
Hayes_&_Yeading    17   14   -9      45.25     8.94   -25.34     0.00     0.02     0.00P   11.20R    0.96  
Grays_Athletic     18   12  -17      37.36     8.03   -43.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.44R    6.43  
Forest_Green       18   12  -22      32.28     7.49   -54.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.52R   16.90  
Ebbsfleet_United   18    9  -22      26.64     6.93   -53.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.75R   47.59  
Chester            19   -4   -4      30.16     8.45    -8.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.89R   25.96  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25