Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 9 November 2009 at 22:17:28 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Liverpool vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         12   30  +21      89.14     7.65    63.77    55.16    83.42    94.13    97.93    99.79     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         11   25  +22      85.44     8.12    79.34    35.31    71.32    87.39    94.44    99.11     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         12   25  +11      77.42     8.49    39.52     6.39    26.06    57.14    76.27    94.03     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       12   22   +6      67.66     9.03    24.51     0.71     4.66    15.35    32.95    67.90     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     12   21   +8      65.62     9.18    22.59     0.50     3.54    12.01    25.46    59.86     0.03R    0.00  
Man_City        11   20   +7      66.68     9.72    23.60     1.06     5.17    15.42    31.02    63.37     0.05R    0.00  
Liverpool       12   19   +9      67.72     8.87    34.39     0.84     5.43    16.18    33.90    70.42     0.02R    0.00  
Sunderland      12   17   +1      52.44     9.18    -2.74     0.01     0.11     0.58     2.11    11.73     1.57R    0.13  
Stoke           12   16   -3      46.55     9.06   -12.09     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.56     3.86     5.76R    0.67  
Burnley         12   16  -10      43.59     8.79   -28.49     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.17     1.68    11.62R    1.65  
Fulham          11   15   +0      54.60     9.85     3.06     0.02     0.25     1.42     4.16    17.89     1.20R    0.08  
Everton         11   15   -2      44.44     9.17   -19.26     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.35     2.75     9.62R    1.51  
Wigan           12   14   -9      42.12     8.81   -25.02     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     1.25    14.31R    2.20  
Blackburn       11   13  -11      41.70     9.35   -28.80     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15     1.60    17.57R    3.46  
Birmingham      12   12   -4      44.11     9.01    -8.10     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.18     2.12     9.33R    1.24  
Bolton          11   11   -9      39.30     9.33   -34.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.85    25.51R    5.78  
Hull            12   11  -15      27.98     7.35   -54.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.86R   38.72  
West_Ham        12   10   -4      43.91     8.76    -9.88     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.18     1.64     9.62R    1.57  
Wolverhampton   12   10  -10      32.16     8.08   -38.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07    54.83R   18.35  
Portsmouth      12    7   -8      30.21     8.12   -29.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05    63.10R   24.62  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 November 2009, Barnsley vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        16   33  +15      94.23     9.25    45.71    45.75    70.13    96.86    79.00P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        16   31  +17      89.56     9.59    46.89    26.38    50.74    91.75    62.70P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          16   27  +14      83.68     9.57    42.49    10.32    26.31    80.30    40.60P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              16   27  +12      82.67     9.96    37.07     8.88    23.34    76.88    37.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        16   27   +9      79.09    10.17    26.45     4.63    13.60    63.88    25.89P    0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        16   27   +5      74.69     9.95    15.44     1.53     5.59    45.48    15.35P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_City     16   26   +4      72.11    10.20    12.04     1.00     3.75    35.63    11.04P    0.17R    0.01  
Nottm_Forest     16   25   +3      69.11     9.82     8.35     0.38     1.65    24.56     6.78P    0.22R    0.02  
Swansea          16   25   +2      68.28     9.66     6.71     0.31     1.37    21.13     6.02P    0.29R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    16   24   +5      66.32    10.19     7.00     0.38     1.50    18.33     5.37P    0.67R    0.06  
Preston          16   24   +1      64.88    10.08     0.45     0.21     0.90    14.33     3.21P    0.99R    0.12  
Watford          16   24   -2      62.62     9.93    -7.15     0.09     0.44     9.43     1.82P    1.78R    0.20  
Crystal_Palace   16   22   -1      64.35    10.00     1.97     0.12     0.51    12.35     3.00P    0.97R    0.10  
Sheff_Utd        16   18   -3      56.23     9.82    -9.43     0.01     0.07     3.01     0.57P    6.77R    1.14  
Barnsley         16   18   -8      48.81     9.44   -27.03     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.06P   23.09R    5.80  
Sheff_Wed        16   17   -2      55.09     9.84    -7.57     0.01     0.05     2.34     0.49P    8.26R    1.56  
Coventry         16   17   -7      50.62     9.62   -19.04     0.00     0.01     0.78     0.13P   17.59R    4.03  
Derby            16   17   -8      47.47     9.38   -26.20     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.05P   27.33R    7.38  
Scunthorpe       16   17  -12      48.74     9.70   -30.64     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.06P   24.79R    7.12  
Doncaster        16   15   -3      51.18     9.66   -10.06     0.00     0.02     1.06     0.25P   14.72R    3.18  
Plymouth         16   15  -11      45.48     9.42   -28.17     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   34.93R   11.25  
Reading          16   14  -10      45.10     9.51   -25.35     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P   36.52R   12.17  
Ipswich          16   12  -11      40.21     9.52   -35.07     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   57.20R   28.23  
Peterborough     16   11   -9      43.28     9.89   -24.85     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   43.63R   17.62  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 November 2009, Oldham vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     15   36  +21     104.05     8.88    61.80    74.09    90.02    99.55    93.31P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         15   29   +9      84.73    10.02    31.27     4.38    20.03    79.00    34.10P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons          15   29   +5      78.12    10.32    15.69     1.18     6.96    55.28    17.29P    0.05R    0.00  
Colchester       15   28  +13      91.76     9.31    49.55    13.90    48.97    94.28    63.35P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          15   25   +8      77.17    10.16    25.65     0.95     6.18    53.49    15.09P    0.06R    0.00  
Huddersfield     15   24  +13      83.22     9.91    42.06     3.96    17.19    76.30    33.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         15   24  +10      79.11    10.01    29.04     1.33     8.38    61.21    25.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon          15   22   -1      63.95    10.21    -2.05     0.04     0.36    10.70     1.99P    2.18R    0.04  
Bristol_Rovers   15   22   -3      63.80    10.34    -5.40     0.04     0.40    10.92     1.89P    2.11R    0.05  
Southend         15   20   +2      63.37    10.16     3.24     0.02     0.41    10.46     2.45P    1.90R    0.03  
Hartlepool       15   20   +1      60.00    10.15    -2.58     0.01     0.10     5.67     1.13P    4.31R    0.09  
Walsall          15   20   -1      63.75    10.31     1.22     0.02     0.26    10.79     2.16P    2.17R    0.02  
Oldham           15   20   -2      58.03    10.03    -7.27     0.01     0.08     3.73     0.75P    5.95R    0.18  
Yeovil           15   18   -2      56.80    10.28    -7.70     0.01     0.08     3.38     0.63P    8.05R    0.24  
Carlisle         15   17   -3      52.57     9.97   -14.99     0.00     0.02     1.22     0.23P   16.01R    0.76  
Brentford        15   17   -5      51.69     9.80   -16.38     0.00     0.01     0.98     0.19P   17.45R    1.02  
Exeter           15   17   -6      51.24     9.92   -19.76     0.00     0.01     0.93     0.17P   19.99R    0.88  
Leyton_Orient    15   16  -11      48.33     9.78   -30.26     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.06P   29.63R    2.57  
Gillingham       15   15   -4      57.12    10.44    -5.03     0.01     0.04     3.51     0.63P    8.56R    0.24  
Brighton         15   14   -9      41.42     9.16   -39.09     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   58.49R    7.80  
Stockport        15   14  -11      41.68     9.22   -36.29     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   57.36R    7.70  
Southampton      15   12   +7      66.67    10.15    28.76     0.04     0.51    17.99     5.52P    1.18R    0.04  
Tranmere         15   10  -21      28.69     7.94   -69.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.72R   62.99  
Wycombe          15    8  -10      37.87     9.38   -31.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   69.79R   15.35  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 October 2009, Bournemouth vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          15   31   +7      79.55    10.72    16.38     7.38    28.49    66.00    37.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             15   29  +14      86.61    10.26    39.00    21.59    55.86    87.13    64.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            15   29  +11      83.37    10.46    31.11    12.72    42.77    79.47    51.93P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         15   26  +19      92.02     9.31    60.75    42.93    77.86    96.07    84.71P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            15   26   +7      77.55    10.16    20.90     4.22    21.32    60.94    32.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         15   26   +3      74.06    10.40    11.31     2.17    13.08    46.54    19.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           15   25   +6      76.34    10.38    20.84     3.50    19.10    56.62    28.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet               15   24   +6      75.42    10.44    19.62     2.80    16.67    53.08    26.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Bury                 15   24   -1      61.54    10.33    -9.46     0.16     1.40    10.72     3.05P    0.34R    0.01  
Aldershot            15   22   +6      68.02    10.76    11.06     0.83     5.88    28.02    11.26P    0.05R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        15   22   +1      67.82    10.56     6.10     0.53     4.84    25.53     9.49P    0.06R    0.00  
Bradford             15   21   -1      65.98    10.47     2.91     0.35     3.60    20.65     7.09P    0.18R    0.01  
Port_Vale            15   20   +2      65.24    10.47     6.72     0.33     3.03    18.82     7.43P    0.13R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   15   20   -1      59.78    10.50    -7.20     0.08     1.03     8.54     2.62P    0.64R    0.03  
Crewe                15   18   +0      60.93    10.46    -0.31     0.09     1.30    10.47     3.33P    0.43R    0.02  
Northampton          15   18   -2      65.12    10.48     5.45     0.28     2.84    18.55     6.28P    0.29R    0.02  
Hereford             15   18   -3      54.90    10.23   -12.31     0.02     0.27     3.35     0.97P    1.81R    0.10  
Macclesfield         15   18   -6      53.71    10.15   -18.51     0.01     0.21     2.60     0.65P    3.15R    0.24  
Lincoln_City         15   16  -10      45.75     9.43   -27.18     0.00     0.02     0.33     0.08P   11.83R    0.99  
Morecambe            15   15   -7      56.35    10.40   -10.97     0.01     0.34     4.46     1.16P    1.98R    0.19  
Cheltenham           15   15  -11      44.63     9.65   -35.47     0.00     0.02     0.33     0.09P   14.22R    1.42  
Torquay              15   14   -5      51.96    10.11   -12.21     0.00     0.09     1.74     0.47P    3.77R    0.36  
Grimsby              15   11  -16      33.53     8.63   -56.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    65.06R   14.16  
Darlington           15    5  -19      21.37     7.25   -62.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.05R   82.45  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 November 2009, Grays_Athletic vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         18   43  +25     105.46     7.77    65.45    84.84    99.82    90.27P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          18   35  +16      89.62     8.68    40.56     7.36    87.42    35.87P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          18   35  +12      87.75     8.81    35.42     5.24    82.76    25.87P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          18   33   +9      77.37     9.02    18.31     0.46    40.17     6.85P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              18   32   +5      79.77     9.06    19.93     1.01    50.78    10.92P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   18   29   +8      70.28     8.96    12.26     0.08    15.45     2.85P    0.00R    0.00  
York               18   28   +6      76.50     8.95    22.19     0.27    37.17     8.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      18   27  +13      71.93     9.02    23.99     0.16    21.35     5.09P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      18   27   +4      66.59     8.85     6.34     0.03     7.80     1.40P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      17   26  +10      76.92     9.18    29.69     0.53    40.63     9.78P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             18   25   +1      63.03     8.96    -0.50     0.00     3.90     0.57P    0.09R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       18   25   -6      58.69     8.86   -12.66     0.00     1.14     0.16P    0.34R    0.00  
Altrincham         18   24   +1      64.47     9.04     5.15     0.01     4.98     1.02P    0.05R    0.00  
Wrexham            17   22   +2      63.39     9.59     5.11     0.01     5.18     1.11P    0.11R    0.00  
Tamworth           18   22   -2      57.90     8.71    -7.11     0.00     0.94     0.13P    0.43R    0.02  
Barrow             18   21   -9      52.08     8.74   -21.36     0.00     0.21     0.03P    2.45R    0.08  
Salisbury          18   17   -1      52.01     8.83    -6.54     0.00     0.21     0.06P    2.42R    0.09  
Eastbourne_Boro    18   17  -12      42.32     8.06   -32.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.84R    1.29  
Gateshead          17   15   -9      48.38     8.97   -20.80     0.00     0.06     0.01P    5.97R    0.44  
Hayes_&_Yeading    17   14   -9      45.38     9.05   -25.13     0.00     0.03     0.01P   11.91R    1.01  
Grays_Athletic     18   12  -17      37.78     8.04   -42.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.98R    5.99  
Forest_Green       18   12  -22      32.36     7.51   -54.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.93R   17.61  
Ebbsfleet_United   18    9  -22      26.55     6.88   -53.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.46R   49.21  
Chester            18   -4   -3      30.80     8.64    -7.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.02R   24.27  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25