Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 8 November 2009 at 22:17:31 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 November 2009, Chelsea vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         12   30  +21      89.00     7.65    63.55    54.15    82.57    93.55    97.67    99.75     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         11   25  +22      85.43     8.10    79.50    35.08    69.41    85.55    93.43    99.01     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         12   25  +11      77.60     8.51    40.05     6.70    25.96    55.57    74.66    93.77     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       12   22   +6      68.13     9.10    25.64     0.77     4.85    15.43    32.36    68.50     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     12   21   +8      65.30     9.12    21.94     0.48     3.04    10.05    22.48    57.52     0.04R    0.00  
Man_City        11   20   +7      66.24     9.62    22.67     0.80     4.12    12.85    26.83    60.20     0.02R    0.00  
Liverpool       11   18   +9      70.74     9.21    39.63     1.98     9.66    24.86    45.37    79.16     0.00R    0.00  
Sunderland      12   17   +1      52.74     9.07    -2.27     0.01     0.09     0.54     1.85    11.21     1.26R    0.08  
Stoke           12   16   -3      47.02     9.09   -11.58     0.00     0.03     0.16     0.51     4.06     4.99R    0.52  
Burnley         12   16  -10      43.65     8.88   -28.42     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.18     1.65    11.31R    1.77  
Fulham          11   15   +0      54.43     9.80     2.69     0.03     0.25     1.22     3.76    16.61     1.14R    0.07  
Everton         11   15   -2      44.67     9.07   -18.80     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.34     2.57     8.60R    1.26  
Wigan           12   14   -9      41.77     8.70   -25.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     1.00    14.35R    2.07  
Blackburn       11   13  -11      41.43     9.14   -29.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.10     1.17    17.35R    3.51  
Birmingham      11   11   -4      41.28     9.30   -12.30     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.14     1.21    15.63R    2.67  
Bolton          11   11   -9      39.45     9.29   -34.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.81    24.00R    5.30  
Hull            12   11  -15      27.97     7.39   -54.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    75.39R   37.41  
West_Ham        12   10   -4      44.46     8.84    -8.99     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.16     1.72     8.80R    1.49  
Wolverhampton   12   10  -10      32.49     8.19   -38.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    52.06R   17.29  
Portsmouth      12    7   -8      29.61     8.09   -30.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    65.06R   26.56  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 November 2009, Blackpool vs Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        16   33  +15      94.39     9.05    45.96    46.03    70.92    97.19    79.66P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        16   31  +17      89.47     9.74    46.78    26.14    50.60    91.19    62.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Cardiff          16   27  +14      83.64     9.66    42.44    10.11    26.26    80.10    40.38P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              16   27  +12      82.65     9.93    37.03     9.07    22.83    76.69    37.52P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        16   27   +9      79.10    10.14    26.59     4.44    13.31    63.98    25.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        16   27   +5      74.33    10.02    14.94     1.64     5.44    44.03    14.57P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_City     16   26   +4      72.14    10.24    12.14     1.03     3.88    35.75    11.27P    0.11R    0.01  
Nottm_Forest     16   25   +3      69.68     9.91     9.13     0.46     1.91    26.36     7.68P    0.20R    0.01  
Swansea          16   25   +2      68.20     9.70     6.72     0.33     1.35    20.91     6.17P    0.31R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    16   24   +5      66.34     9.99     7.04     0.31     1.26    17.79     4.75P    0.57R    0.04  
Preston          16   24   +1      64.93    10.10     0.48     0.23     0.96    14.41     3.24P    1.00R    0.09  
Watford          16   24   -2      62.61     9.91    -7.19     0.08     0.47     9.54     1.87P    1.68R    0.17  
Crystal_Palace   16   22   -1      63.88    10.03     1.24     0.11     0.56    11.59     2.97P    1.10R    0.12  
Sheff_Wed        16   17   -2      55.19     9.91    -7.38     0.00     0.06     2.47     0.57P    8.16R    1.53  
Sheff_Utd        15   17   -3      56.98    10.32    -8.76     0.02     0.13     4.11     0.81P    6.72R    1.35  
Coventry         16   17   -7      50.77     9.77   -18.74     0.00     0.02     0.84     0.17P   17.44R    4.31  
Derby            16   17   -8      47.47     9.34   -26.20     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P   26.91R    7.43  
Barnsley         15   17   -8      48.92    10.00   -27.57     0.00     0.02     0.69     0.13P   24.13R    6.37  
Scunthorpe       16   17  -12      48.63     9.72   -30.84     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.06P   25.02R    7.14  
Doncaster        16   15   -3      51.27     9.60   -10.04     0.00     0.01     1.01     0.22P   14.33R    2.90  
Plymouth         16   15  -11      45.48     9.44   -28.19     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.01P   35.09R   11.24  
Reading          16   14  -10      45.18     9.55   -25.31     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   35.93R   11.80  
Ipswich          16   12  -11      40.10     9.32   -35.23     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   57.38R   27.50  
Peterborough     16   11   -9      43.16     9.82   -25.04     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   43.84R   17.96  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 November 2009, Oldham vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     15   36  +21     104.41     8.75    62.16    75.23    90.82    99.69    93.94P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         15   29   +9      84.72    10.00    31.21     4.09    19.93    79.00    34.25P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons          15   29   +5      77.98    10.05    15.47     0.95     6.41    55.21    16.66P    0.02R    0.00  
Colchester       15   28  +13      91.97     9.27    49.88    13.91    50.40    94.33    64.33P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          15   25   +8      77.44    10.08    26.23     0.91     6.08    54.46    15.44P    0.06R    0.00  
Huddersfield     15   24  +13      82.92     9.90    41.71     3.55    16.23    75.69    33.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         15   24  +10      78.89     9.96    28.77     1.15     7.83    60.40    24.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon          15   22   -1      64.14    10.29    -1.80     0.04     0.40    11.46     2.24P    2.03R    0.03  
Bristol_Rovers   15   22   -3      63.91    10.41    -5.10     0.04     0.45    11.03     2.07P    1.98R    0.05  
Southend         15   20   +2      63.36    10.11     3.29     0.02     0.30    10.31     2.24P    1.94R    0.02  
Hartlepool       15   20   +1      60.09    10.12    -2.48     0.00     0.09     5.65     1.11P    4.22R    0.04  
Walsall          15   20   -1      63.67    10.41     1.12     0.03     0.30    11.05     2.28P    2.13R    0.03  
Oldham           15   20   -2      57.88    10.03    -7.39     0.00     0.08     3.55     0.72P    6.16R    0.18  
Yeovil           15   18   -2      57.08    10.27    -7.35     0.00     0.08     3.69     0.69P    7.47R    0.21  
Carlisle         15   17   -3      52.31     9.94   -15.31     0.00     0.01     1.24     0.19P   16.50R    0.81  
Brentford        15   17   -5      51.90     9.83   -16.09     0.00     0.01     1.01     0.20P   17.13R    0.95  
Exeter           15   17   -6      51.09     9.92   -19.86     0.00     0.01     0.87     0.13P   20.26R    0.97  
Leyton_Orient    15   16  -11      48.31     9.76   -30.32     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.06P   29.81R    2.59  
Gillingham       15   15   -4      57.16    10.42    -4.99     0.00     0.06     3.67     0.71P    8.22R    0.25  
Brighton         15   14   -9      41.16     9.14   -39.72     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   59.60R    8.18  
Stockport        15   14  -11      41.45     9.15   -36.70     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    58.05R    8.03  
Southampton      15   12   +7      66.34    10.26    28.34     0.06     0.51    17.15     5.49P    1.31R    0.05  
Tranmere         15   10  -21      28.54     7.93   -70.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.85R   63.78  
Wycombe          15    8  -10      38.29     9.49   -30.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   68.23R   13.85  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 October 2009, Bournemouth vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          15   31   +7      80.01    10.79    17.14     8.15    29.75    67.35    38.64P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             15   29  +14      86.31    10.40    38.57    20.86    54.58    86.24    63.49P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            15   29  +11      83.49    10.34    31.44    12.61    42.72    79.53    51.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         15   26  +19      92.17     9.35    61.13    43.08    77.91    96.03    84.50P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            15   26   +7      77.81    10.10    21.31     4.21    22.07    61.84    33.21P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         15   26   +3      74.46    10.39    11.95     2.21    13.58    48.09    20.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           15   25   +6      76.18    10.32    20.64     3.25    18.34    55.74    27.51P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet               15   24   +6      75.30    10.69    19.39     2.97    16.54    52.60    26.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Bury                 15   24   -1      61.52    10.40    -9.53     0.15     1.53    10.67     3.29P    0.30R    0.02  
Aldershot            15   22   +6      68.07    10.83    11.15     0.90     5.96    27.61    11.15P    0.07R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        15   22   +1      67.85    10.54     6.16     0.58     4.86    25.47     9.44P    0.09R    0.00  
Bradford             15   21   -1      66.14    10.42     3.14     0.34     3.54    20.76     7.13P    0.14R    0.00  
Port_Vale            15   20   +2      65.25    10.38     6.73     0.23     2.85    18.63     7.41P    0.11R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   15   20   -1      59.29    10.44    -8.03     0.06     0.83     7.58     2.18P    0.76R    0.06  
Crewe                15   18   +0      60.98    10.42    -0.18     0.11     1.23    10.46     3.18P    0.44R    0.02  
Northampton          15   18   -2      65.28    10.48     5.70     0.24     2.84    18.74     6.33P    0.26R    0.01  
Hereford             15   18   -3      54.95    10.18   -12.31     0.01     0.26     3.31     0.89P    1.90R    0.09  
Macclesfield         15   18   -6      53.66    10.09   -18.64     0.01     0.14     2.40     0.58P    2.81R    0.14  
Lincoln_City         15   16  -10      45.46     9.34   -27.71     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.08P   11.75R    1.04  
Morecambe            15   15   -7      56.24    10.50   -11.04     0.01     0.31     4.32     1.08P    2.25R    0.18  
Cheltenham           15   15  -11      44.78     9.58   -35.32     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.06P   13.24R    1.30  
Torquay              15   14   -5      52.14    10.28   -12.02     0.00     0.14     2.04     0.65P    3.49R    0.35  
Grimsby              15   11  -16      33.28     8.60   -56.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.91R   13.55  
Darlington           15    5  -19      21.08     7.12   -62.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.45R   83.23  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 November 2009, Grays_Athletic vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         18   43  +25     105.34     7.80    65.30    84.69    99.77    90.29P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          18   35  +16      89.52     8.68    40.43     7.63    87.19    35.55P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          18   35  +12      87.74     8.89    35.38     5.23    82.32    26.38P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          18   33   +9      77.25     9.15    18.13     0.50    39.98     7.05P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              18   32   +5      80.07     9.05    20.40     0.97    52.01    11.32P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   18   29   +8      70.31     8.88    12.32     0.08    15.08     2.73P    0.00     0.00  
York               18   28   +6      76.52     8.92    22.22     0.28    37.53     8.01P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      18   27  +13      71.99     9.02    24.12     0.19    21.76     5.12P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      18   27   +4      67.14     8.78     7.26     0.03     8.25     1.50P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      17   26  +10      76.58     9.10    29.10     0.39    39.10     8.80P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             18   25   +1      63.17     9.06    -0.26     0.00     4.13     0.61P    0.09R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       18   25   -6      58.60     8.97   -12.75     0.00     1.17     0.18P    0.34R    0.00  
Altrincham         18   24   +1      64.67     8.99     5.45     0.01     5.18     1.06P    0.05R    0.00  
Wrexham            17   22   +2      63.24     9.69     4.95     0.00     5.15     1.16P    0.12R    0.01  
Tamworth           18   22   -2      57.65     8.63    -7.50     0.00     0.83     0.13P    0.40R    0.01  
Barrow             18   21   -9      52.32     8.81   -21.10     0.00     0.20     0.03P    2.30R    0.11  
Salisbury          18   17   -1      51.79     8.79    -6.86     0.00     0.20     0.04P    2.30R    0.08  
Eastbourne_Boro    18   17  -12      42.45     7.96   -32.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.25R    1.30  
Gateshead          17   15   -9      48.40     9.07   -20.66     0.00     0.10     0.02P    6.34R    0.45  
Hayes_&_Yeading    17   14   -9      45.40     8.92   -25.05     0.00     0.04     0.01P   11.15R    1.06  
Grays_Athletic     18   12  -17      37.68     8.01   -42.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.95R    5.99  
Forest_Green       18   12  -22      32.21     7.43   -54.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.69R   17.60  
Ebbsfleet_United   18    9  -22      26.52     6.85   -53.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.68R   48.80  
Chester            18   -4   -3      30.70     8.61    -8.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.35R   24.58  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25