Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 7 November 2009 at 22:55:53 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 November 2009, Aston_Villa vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         11   27  +20      87.37     8.18    63.58    47.34    75.44    89.26    95.41    99.30     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         11   25  +22      85.45     8.08    79.43    37.51    70.03    85.96    93.47    98.92     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         11   25  +12      78.12     9.00    40.19    10.44    30.38    56.44    74.30    92.66     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       12   22   +6      68.14     9.00    25.76     0.79     4.66    14.83    31.19    66.33     0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     12   21   +8      65.72     9.00    22.70     0.55     3.49    10.83    22.90    56.41     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City        11   20   +7      66.74     9.64    23.79     1.00     5.01    14.37    28.13    59.66     0.02R    0.00  
Liverpool       11   18   +9      70.83     9.12    39.90     2.29    10.30    25.07    44.86    77.76     0.00R    0.00  
Sunderland      12   17   +1      53.19     9.17    -1.52     0.01     0.13     0.63     2.04    11.26     0.94R    0.05  
Stoke           11   16   -2      49.97     9.48    -7.50     0.01     0.07     0.32     1.16     6.63     2.73R    0.21  
Burnley         12   16  -10      43.44     8.85   -29.02     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     1.36     9.86R    1.01  
Fulham          10   14   +0      55.70    10.16     4.06     0.06     0.46     1.96     5.16    19.07     0.87R    0.06  
Wigan           11   13   -9      42.02     9.12   -26.20     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.12     1.27    13.11R    1.63  
Blackburn       11   13  -11      42.07     9.08   -28.25     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     1.17    13.41R    1.87  
Everton         10   12   -3      39.91     9.31   -26.99     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.14     1.07    18.81R    3.23  
Birmingham      11   11   -4      41.19     9.26   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     1.16    14.38R    1.78  
Bolton          11   11   -9      38.67     9.21   -36.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.64    24.39R    4.13  
West_Ham        11   10   -3      49.22     9.40    -1.50     0.00     0.02     0.19     0.69     5.26     3.48R    0.39  
Wolverhampton   12   10  -10      32.42     8.00   -38.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05    48.91R   12.10  
Hull            11    8  -16      24.39     7.29   -58.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.09R   52.33  
Portsmouth      12    7   -8      29.20     8.01   -31.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    63.99R   21.20  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 November 2009, Blackpool vs Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        16   33  +15      94.36     9.07    45.85    45.70    70.67    97.23    79.60P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        16   31  +17      89.56     9.60    46.88    26.56    51.20    91.62    62.86P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          16   27  +14      83.50     9.69    42.21    10.02    25.67    79.74    40.03P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              16   27  +12      82.58    10.12    36.97     9.28    23.52    76.27    37.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool        16   27   +9      79.36    10.14    26.99     4.49    13.56    64.97    26.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        16   27   +5      74.04    10.07    14.55     1.54     5.31    42.75    14.42P    0.07R    0.00  
Bristol_City     16   26   +4      72.25    10.10    12.24     1.03     3.76    35.77    11.05P    0.11R    0.01  
Nottm_Forest     16   25   +3      69.40     9.79     8.78     0.40     1.60    25.61     7.06P    0.18R    0.00  
Swansea          16   25   +2      68.46     9.57     7.02     0.32     1.38    21.47     6.26P    0.23R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    16   24   +5      67.00    10.09     8.07     0.30     1.47    19.93     5.51P    0.51R    0.05  
Preston          16   24   +1      64.41     9.96    -0.42     0.17     0.73    13.05     2.81P    1.03R    0.09  
Watford          16   24   -2      62.38     9.87    -7.51     0.07     0.40     9.27     1.68P    1.69R    0.17  
Crystal_Palace   16   22   -1      64.14     9.99     1.65     0.10     0.51    12.05     2.90P    1.08R    0.08  
Sheff_Wed        16   17   -2      55.17     9.81    -7.50     0.00     0.07     2.41     0.53P    7.94R    1.51  
Sheff_Utd        15   17   -3      56.78    10.38    -9.13     0.01     0.12     4.10     0.74P    7.05R    1.26  
Coventry         16   17   -7      50.56     9.60   -19.13     0.00     0.01     0.74     0.13P   17.61R    4.18  
Derby            16   17   -8      47.68     9.35   -25.84     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P   26.47R    7.01  
Barnsley         15   17   -8      49.12     9.99   -27.18     0.00     0.01     0.69     0.10P   23.29R    6.31  
Scunthorpe       16   17  -12      49.02     9.64   -30.16     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.07P   23.43R    6.48  
Doncaster        16   15   -3      51.29     9.76    -9.90     0.00     0.01     1.03     0.22P   14.87R    3.37  
Plymouth         16   15  -11      45.71     9.37   -27.74     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   34.02R   10.20  
Reading          16   14  -10      44.82     9.44   -25.71     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   37.31R   12.38  
Ipswich          16   12  -11      39.83     9.46   -35.73     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   58.95R   29.32  
Peterborough     16   11   -9      43.07     9.76   -25.24     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   44.12R   17.58  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 November 2009, Oldham vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     15   36  +21     104.38     8.79    62.26    75.15    90.89    99.71    94.02P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         15   29   +9      84.69    10.12    31.20     4.10    19.74    78.66    33.97P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons          15   29   +5      78.59    10.13    16.36     1.18     7.19    56.91    17.84P    0.03R    0.00  
Colchester       15   28  +13      91.72     9.46    49.44    13.69    49.53    93.78    63.34P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich          15   25   +8      77.66    10.21    26.70     1.03     6.64    54.86    16.09P    0.04R    0.00  
Huddersfield     15   24  +13      82.94     9.90    41.64     3.55    16.12    75.52    32.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         15   24  +10      78.91     9.90    28.76     1.13     7.69    60.73    24.52P    0.03R    0.00  
Swindon          15   22   -1      63.94    10.25    -2.10     0.05     0.42    10.73     2.09P    2.16R    0.03  
Bristol_Rovers   15   22   -3      63.89    10.39    -5.12     0.03     0.43    10.94     1.84P    2.03R    0.03  
Southend         15   20   +2      63.71    10.20     3.80     0.02     0.32    11.04     2.51P    1.84R    0.03  
Hartlepool       15   20   +1      59.53    10.07    -3.40     0.00     0.07     5.02     1.03P    4.48R    0.10  
Walsall          15   20   -1      63.56    10.24     0.85     0.02     0.25    10.25     2.00P    2.11R    0.04  
Oldham           15   20   -2      57.66    10.04    -7.78     0.00     0.06     3.25     0.69P    6.37R    0.19  
Yeovil           15   18   -2      56.82    10.35    -7.80     0.00     0.06     3.70     0.67P    8.11R    0.29  
Carlisle         15   17   -3      52.18     9.93   -15.58     0.00     0.01     1.12     0.18P   16.51R    0.78  
Brentford        15   17   -5      51.70     9.86   -16.45     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.16P   17.65R    0.93  
Exeter           15   17   -6      51.29     9.97   -19.58     0.00     0.01     0.99     0.17P   19.67R    0.97  
Leyton_Orient    15   16  -11      48.42     9.76   -30.10     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.05P   29.42R    2.54  
Gillingham       15   15   -4      57.29    10.32    -4.77     0.01     0.06     3.56     0.68P    7.82R    0.22  
Brighton         15   14   -9      41.35     9.23   -39.28     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   58.31R    8.13  
Stockport        15   14  -11      41.26     9.19   -37.06     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   58.96R    8.45  
Southampton      15   12   +7      66.83    10.01    29.05     0.04     0.51    17.67     5.48P    1.03R    0.03  
Tranmere         15   10  -21      28.75     7.92   -69.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.70R   62.41  
Wycombe          15    8  -10      38.11     9.49   -31.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    68.72R   14.81  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 October 2009, Bournemouth vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          15   31   +7      79.78    10.69    16.69     7.47    28.81    66.92    37.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             15   29  +14      86.24    10.38    38.51    20.93    54.30    86.13    63.38P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            15   29  +11      83.72    10.44    31.78    13.47    44.26    79.92    53.31P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         15   26  +19      92.02     9.30    60.71    42.87    77.77    95.99    84.38P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            15   26   +7      77.74    10.23    21.19     4.26    22.35    61.39    33.26P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         15   26   +3      74.16    10.42    11.52     2.14    13.28    47.00    20.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           15   25   +6      76.18    10.26    20.57     3.49    18.39    55.75    27.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet               15   24   +6      75.42    10.54    19.64     2.80    16.62    53.11    26.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Bury                 15   24   -1      61.78    10.48    -9.02     0.19     1.64    11.35     3.52P    0.36R    0.03  
Aldershot            15   22   +6      67.95    10.65    10.99     0.73     5.66    27.28    10.66P    0.04R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        15   22   +1      67.74    10.52     5.99     0.50     4.49    25.52     9.10P    0.07R    0.00  
Bradford             15   21   -1      65.83    10.56     2.64     0.38     3.45    20.08     6.96P    0.18R    0.02  
Port_Vale            15   20   +2      65.37    10.36     6.88     0.27     2.94    18.83     7.35P    0.10R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   15   20   -1      59.40    10.53    -7.77     0.08     0.93     8.14     2.35P    0.73R    0.05  
Crewe                15   18   +0      61.14    10.51     0.10     0.08     1.30    10.90     3.45P    0.53R    0.03  
Northampton          15   18   -2      65.00    10.61     5.21     0.26     2.79    18.66     6.32P    0.30R    0.02  
Hereford             15   18   -3      55.34    10.28   -11.54     0.02     0.32     3.57     1.02P    1.87R    0.16  
Macclesfield         15   18   -6      53.93    10.13   -18.15     0.01     0.21     2.70     0.72P    2.76R    0.23  
Lincoln_City         15   16  -10      45.60     9.44   -27.56     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.07P   11.81R    1.09  
Morecambe            15   15   -7      56.06    10.51   -11.39     0.02     0.38     4.39     1.17P    2.35R    0.23  
Cheltenham           15   15  -11      44.67     9.44   -35.32     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.04P   13.32R    1.42  
Torquay              15   14   -5      51.92    10.18   -12.38     0.01     0.10     1.81     0.48P    3.81R    0.35  
Grimsby              15   11  -16      33.36     8.64   -56.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.47R   13.77  
Darlington           15    5  -19      21.35     7.20   -62.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.28R   82.60  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 November 2009, Grays_Athletic vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         18   43  +25     105.37     7.71    65.39    84.66    99.76    90.35P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          18   35  +16      89.72     8.67    40.77     7.46    87.53    36.04P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          18   35  +12      88.02     8.79    35.83     5.29    83.29    25.99P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          18   33   +9      77.46     9.12    18.45     0.46    40.81     7.14P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              18   32   +5      80.05     9.11    20.36     1.05    51.52    11.06P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   18   29   +8      70.24     9.02    12.20     0.08    15.01     2.78P    0.00R    0.00  
York               18   28   +6      76.78     8.93    22.67     0.32    38.11     8.45P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      18   27  +13      71.68     9.07    23.66     0.15    20.58     4.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster      18   27   +4      66.55     8.86     6.38     0.02     7.34     1.33P    0.02R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      17   26  +10      76.76     9.18    29.41     0.49    39.53     9.06P    0.00     0.00  
Histon             18   25   +1      62.75     9.06    -0.95     0.00     3.74     0.57P    0.07R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       18   25   -6      58.81     8.83   -12.40     0.00     1.14     0.18P    0.30R    0.00  
Altrincham         18   24   +1      64.59     8.89     5.29     0.01     4.78     0.97P    0.04R    0.00  
Wrexham            17   22   +2      63.67     9.66     5.56     0.01     5.43     1.20P    0.12R    0.00  
Tamworth           18   22   -2      57.72     8.70    -7.32     0.00     0.97     0.13P    0.45R    0.00  
Barrow             18   21   -9      52.34     8.78   -21.06     0.00     0.19     0.03P    2.34R    0.09  
Salisbury          18   17   -1      51.49     8.76    -7.30     0.00     0.16     0.03P    2.54R    0.15  
Eastbourne_Boro    18   17  -12      42.29     8.06   -32.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.06R    1.42  
Gateshead          17   15   -9      48.16     9.13   -21.22     0.00     0.09     0.01P    6.84R    0.49  
Hayes_&_Yeading    17   14   -9      45.21     8.94   -25.41     0.00     0.03     0.01P   11.66R    0.98  
Grays_Athletic     18   12  -17      37.78     8.07   -42.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.11R    6.02  
Forest_Green       18   12  -22      32.35     7.51   -54.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.84R   17.82  
Ebbsfleet_United   18    9  -22      26.78     6.87   -53.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.92R   48.02  
Chester            18   -4   -3      30.80     8.72    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.67R   24.98  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25