Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 19 October 2009 at 21:02:12 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 October 2009, Blackburn vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          9   22  +12      85.01     9.08    58.72    30.21    54.61    71.86    83.81    96.17     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          9   21  +11      80.27    10.05    45.98    17.46    34.88    52.15    68.13    89.91     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        9   19   +8      73.73    10.56    38.33     5.92    15.63    28.67    43.45    72.98     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          8   18  +16      83.43    10.47    76.25    29.68    50.61    65.73    76.93    91.74     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         8   17   +7      75.02    11.28    37.37     8.08    19.84    34.04    48.18    74.80     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      8   16   +5      68.96    11.93    24.51     3.41     9.30    17.38    28.24    56.11     0.08R    0.01  
Sunderland       9   16   +4      61.04    10.76    10.13     0.44     1.71     4.21     8.77    27.35     0.23R    0.01  
Liverpool        9   15   +9      72.73    10.07    44.57     4.76    13.14    24.98    39.52    72.71     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke            9   12   -3      47.24    10.68   -11.82     0.01     0.06     0.23     0.63     3.60     4.97R    0.58  
Burnley          9   12  -10      43.43    10.18   -29.06     0.01     0.02     0.05     0.19     1.52     9.62R    1.46  
Everton          8   11   -2      38.17    10.59   -36.09     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.12     1.00    22.77R    4.29  
Blackburn        8   10   -6      41.61    10.58   -29.53     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.21     1.46    13.48R    2.26  
Wigan            9   10   -7      42.26    10.20   -22.33     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.17     1.34    10.70R    1.51  
Bolton           8    8   -2      47.97    11.67    -8.22     0.01     0.12     0.43     1.18     5.56     5.94R    0.92  
Wolverhampton    9    8   -7      29.00     8.81   -48.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    57.98R   19.61  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.57    11.67   -23.25     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.25     1.69    20.51R    4.47  
Birmingham       9    7   -5      39.84    10.35   -13.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.79    15.90R    2.76  
Hull             8    7  -12      32.00     9.99   -51.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.15    45.30R   16.06  
West_Ham         8    5   -4      39.64    11.08   -20.13     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.14     1.05    18.64R    4.53  
Portsmouth       9    3  -10      24.42     8.83   -41.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    73.86R   41.53  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2009, Blackpool vs Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Brom        12   24  +12      86.84    11.76    39.94    14.88    35.13    82.64    47.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle        12   24  +12      98.24    10.53    55.36    53.08    75.96    97.52    84.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          12   20  +12      88.66    11.29    52.61    17.38    41.77    87.41    56.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    12   20   +5      71.62    12.08    13.15     1.66     5.37    37.40    12.17P    0.52R    0.04  
Blackpool        12   19   +3      74.07    12.40    16.57     1.88     6.83    45.60    15.67P    0.44R    0.05  
Preston          12   19   +2      64.36    12.28    -0.89     0.41     1.62    18.57     4.49P    2.35R    0.29  
Nottm_Forest     12   19   +2      68.01    11.67     6.57     0.43     2.06    25.74     7.45P    0.84R    0.07  
Leicester        12   18   +2      64.91    11.51     3.95     0.34     1.31    17.93     5.24P    1.45R    0.13  
Bristol_City     12   18   +1      68.95    11.91     8.77     0.71     2.90    28.56     9.34P    0.89R    0.12  
QPR              11   17   +7      81.79    12.59    34.58     7.85    20.98    69.74    35.79P    0.14R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd        12   17   +2      62.61    11.77    -0.83     0.27     1.06    14.24     3.45P    3.03R    0.40  
Watford          12   17   -2      58.30    12.14   -13.03     0.13     0.54     8.49     1.87P    6.94R    1.09  
Sheff_Wed        12   16   +3      67.18    11.86    10.46     0.42     2.12    24.77     6.92P    1.18R    0.12  
Crystal_Palace   11   16   +0      64.78    12.44     2.51     0.31     1.38    19.20     5.19P    2.23R    0.26  
Coventry         12   16   -2      56.41    11.81   -13.68     0.11     0.39     5.95     1.26P    8.87R    1.35  
Swansea          12   15   -2      52.40    11.23   -11.63     0.02     0.09     2.78     0.70P   13.15R    2.16  
Derby            12   14   -4      53.44    11.71   -16.74     0.05     0.15     3.38     0.67P   13.83R    2.86  
Scunthorpe       12   14   -5      56.86    11.86   -13.29     0.05     0.26     6.04     1.15P    8.77R    1.66  
Barnsley         12   14   -7      46.24    11.08   -33.77     0.01     0.04     0.95     0.16P   31.63R    8.42  
Doncaster        12   11   -3      48.63    11.02   -13.89     0.00     0.03     1.30     0.31P   21.83R    4.49  
Reading          12   10   -8      44.23    11.13   -26.49     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.09P   37.38R   12.14  
Peterborough     12    8   -7      44.67    11.62   -25.33     0.00     0.01     0.70     0.12P   36.93R   12.51  
Plymouth         12    8  -11      42.77    11.36   -30.23     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.07P   43.22R   16.23  
Ipswich          12    6  -12      36.71    11.40   -44.67     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   64.36R   35.61  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 October 2009, Leeds_United vs Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     12   30  +14      98.49    10.86    46.44    46.16    69.30    96.57    78.05P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         13   28  +11      90.85    10.71    40.49    17.33    40.31    89.70    53.19P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          13   26   +6      79.18    11.01    18.72     2.64     8.82    58.06    20.91P    0.08R    0.00  
Colchester       13   25  +13      94.01     9.96    53.39    26.40    54.73    94.88    68.62P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   12   22   +3      75.39    11.59    14.84     2.01     6.49    45.28    13.09P    0.24R    0.00  
Norwich          13   19   +5      74.76    11.25    24.95     1.02     4.29    44.58    11.82P    0.27R    0.01  
Swindon          13   19   -3      60.13    11.32   -10.49     0.06     0.31     7.65     1.43P    5.94R    0.36  
Huddersfield     13   18   +8      79.48    11.08    37.75     3.26    10.34    62.11    23.15P    0.08R    0.00  
Millwall         13   18   +8      72.11    10.81    21.79     0.72     2.95    34.73    13.00P    0.29R    0.00  
Southend         13   17   +2      64.68    11.42     5.92     0.15     0.85    15.18     3.63P    2.42R    0.11  
Walsall          13   17   -1      59.37    10.93    -4.77     0.03     0.21     6.39     1.47P    5.51R    0.23  
Oldham           13   17   -3      56.03    10.96   -11.22     0.01     0.10     3.55     0.74P    9.83R    0.71  
Hartlepool       13   16   +0      61.88    11.31     1.93     0.07     0.37     9.79     2.40P    3.88R    0.14  
Yeovil           13   15   +1      55.41    11.19    -6.47     0.01     0.09     3.96     0.88P   10.76R    0.72  
Leyton_Orient    13   15   -7      50.19    10.83   -25.61     0.00     0.01     1.28     0.20P   23.78R    2.68  
Gillingham       13   14   -3      57.59    11.36    -6.99     0.01     0.15     5.42     1.02P    8.83R    0.53  
Brentford        13   14   -4      53.89    10.78   -10.99     0.00     0.02     1.96     0.36P   13.77R    1.23  
Stockport        13   14   -7      46.70    10.47   -28.42     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.08P   34.72R    4.41  
Brighton         13   13   -7      45.16    10.27   -31.32     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P   40.33R    5.36  
Exeter           13   13   -9      45.59    10.46   -30.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.05P   38.64R    5.59  
Carlisle         13   11   -6      41.92    10.31   -30.39     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   52.29R   10.50  
Tranmere         13   10  -17      30.88     8.76   -68.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    89.41R   53.35  
Southampton      13    8   +5      65.75    11.06    27.03     0.11     0.64    17.43     5.82P    1.94R    0.10  
Wycombe          13    7   -9      40.33    10.35   -28.03     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   57.00R   13.94  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          13   28   +9      87.33    11.00    30.40    16.62    47.40    84.67    58.23P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            13   27  +11      86.80    10.97    36.05    14.96    46.13    83.93    55.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             13   26  +11      85.33    11.17    34.61    13.15    41.53    80.52    51.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham            13   25   +8      82.11    11.03    26.85     6.91    29.68    71.96    40.84P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         13   22  +17      93.88     9.67    68.02    38.44    75.01    96.09    82.57P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            12   21   +9      75.58    12.17    21.87     3.56    16.07    50.46    24.61P    0.04R    0.01  
Shrewsbury           13   21   +4      70.04    11.23     9.98     0.88     6.03    30.81    11.36P    0.09R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        13   21   +4      74.98    11.49    18.33     1.91    12.20    48.25    20.89P    0.03R    0.01  
Barnet               13   21   +4      76.07    11.36    19.54     2.36    14.07    51.77    23.70P    0.02R    0.00  
Chesterfield         13   20   -1      66.30    11.20     0.32     0.34     2.93    20.03     6.34P    0.16R    0.01  
Port_Vale            13   18   +2      66.65    11.33     7.78     0.35     3.20    21.88     8.08P    0.15R    0.01  
Bradford             13   17   -2      65.14    11.21     2.74     0.20     2.36    17.71     5.37P    0.35R    0.03  
Bury                 12   17   -3      51.44    11.49   -23.84     0.02     0.24     2.72     0.73P    4.82R    0.52  
Accrington_Stanley   13   16   -2      54.32    11.13   -16.54     0.03     0.30     3.64     0.96P    3.04R    0.32  
Macclesfield         13   16   -6      53.52    10.95   -19.84     0.01     0.16     2.68     0.63P    3.88R    0.48  
Crewe                13   15   -2      54.82    11.02   -15.20     0.02     0.30     3.74     0.96P    2.48R    0.26  
Northampton          13   15   -3      63.14    11.28     1.12     0.17     1.50    13.86     3.93P    0.63R    0.06  
Hereford             13   15   -3      55.95    11.19   -11.00     0.03     0.29     4.87     1.22P    1.95R    0.26  
Lincoln_City         13   15   -8      49.26    10.82   -23.24     0.01     0.05     1.12     0.26P    7.49R    0.90  
Cheltenham           13   14   -7      48.62    10.53   -27.55     0.00     0.03     0.95     0.16P    7.45R    0.91  
Morecambe            13   12   -7      57.32    11.53    -8.14     0.03     0.39     5.92     1.37P    2.37R    0.35  
Torquay              13   10   -6      51.91    11.42   -12.28     0.00     0.12     2.42     0.64P    5.07R    0.85  
Grimsby              13   10  -14      32.58     9.19   -58.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   66.31R   18.72  
Darlington           13    5  -15      22.30     7.82   -61.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   93.66R   76.31  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2009, AFC_Wimbledon vs Kettering; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         17   40  +24     105.30     7.90    68.48    76.10    99.57    84.67P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          16   33  +16      90.94     9.38    42.09     8.91    83.43    32.18P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          16   33  +12      90.95     9.34    39.02     8.48    83.76    29.44P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          17   32   +9      79.28     9.50    20.99     0.68    38.95     6.46P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              16   31   +7      86.30     9.54    29.71     3.74    68.48    17.91P    0.00     0.00  
York               16   27   +8      79.49     9.42    26.01     0.67    40.35     9.21P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      17   27   +6      69.92     9.28    11.21     0.07     9.89     1.92P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      16   26  +12      81.94     9.26    38.19     1.25    52.21    13.82P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   17   26   +6      64.94     9.03     3.62     0.01     3.66     0.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      17   24  +11      68.82     9.44    19.38     0.06     9.40     1.93P    0.02R    0.00  
Altrincham         17   24   +2      64.85     9.25     4.35     0.01     3.60     0.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Histon             17   24   +1      61.85     9.25    -3.86     0.00     2.07     0.28P    0.12R    0.00  
Tamworth           17   22   +0      62.47     9.02     0.06     0.01     1.99     0.28P    0.07R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       17   22   -8      54.68     9.03   -17.88     0.00     0.28     0.04P    0.80R    0.01  
Barrow             17   20   -9      52.38     9.10   -21.01     0.00     0.11     0.01P    1.86R    0.05  
Wrexham            14   17   +1      59.03    10.58    -1.12     0.01     1.83     0.39P    0.69R    0.02  
Salisbury          17   17   +0      55.89     9.21    -1.88     0.00     0.39     0.10P    0.62R    0.02  
Eastbourne_Boro    17   16  -12      42.83     8.46   -32.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.75R    0.66  
Gateshead          16   12  -10      44.69     9.35   -26.63     0.00     0.02     0.00P   11.87R    0.71  
Hayes_&_Yeading    16   11  -11      40.85     8.91   -33.53     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.64R    1.63  
Grays_Athletic     16   11  -15      40.94     8.84   -36.05     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.74R    2.06  
Forest_Green       17   11  -22      33.02     7.90   -55.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.65R    9.16  
Ebbsfleet_United   17    9  -21      28.35     7.36   -52.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.70R   22.55  
Chester            16  -10   -7      21.06     8.94   -20.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.42R   63.12  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25