Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 18 October 2009 at 21:02:15 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 October 2009, Blackburn vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          9   22  +12      85.00     9.15    58.51    30.86    55.14    72.17    83.88    95.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          9   21  +11      80.50    10.00    46.09    18.36    36.27    53.70    69.26    90.46     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        9   19   +8      73.56    10.34    37.63     5.50    14.88    27.72    42.62    72.99     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal          8   18  +16      83.06    10.46    75.48    28.38    49.28    64.42    76.12    91.54     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         8   17   +7      75.17    11.09    37.74     7.89    20.17    34.90    49.33    75.51     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      8   16   +5      68.37    11.84    23.26     3.29     8.62    16.39    26.52    53.14     0.05R    0.00  
Sunderland       9   16   +4      61.43    10.94    10.89     0.55     1.96     4.81     9.85    29.10     0.17R    0.01  
Liverpool        9   15   +9      72.48    10.19    43.81     5.10    13.35    24.79    39.06    71.80     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke            9   12   -3      47.98    10.61   -10.53     0.01     0.10     0.26     0.76     4.19     4.06R    0.53  
Burnley          9   12  -10      43.49    10.47   -29.07     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.24     1.66    10.17R    1.85  
Everton          8   11   -2      38.16    10.57   -35.48     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.18     1.05    22.71R    4.60  
Blackburn        8   10   -6      42.02    10.40   -28.89     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.21     1.44    12.32R    2.08  
Wigan            9   10   -7      42.09    10.42   -22.45     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.18     1.44    11.24R    1.71  
Bolton           8    8   -2      47.92    11.73    -8.44     0.03     0.12     0.41     1.14     5.48     6.16R    0.93  
Wolverhampton    9    8   -7      29.41     8.87   -47.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.05    55.48R   17.92  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.56    11.73   -23.07     0.00     0.03     0.11     0.33     1.95    20.22R    4.31  
Birmingham       9    7   -5      39.20    10.36   -14.75     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.74    17.81R    3.25  
Hull             8    7  -12      31.32     9.82   -53.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10    47.94R   16.98  
West_Ham         8    5   -4      40.26    11.28   -19.10     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.22     1.37    17.47R    4.41  
Portsmouth       9    3  -10      24.36     8.68   -41.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    74.20R   41.43  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2009, Blackpool vs Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Brom        12   24  +12      86.91    11.61    40.03    14.48    35.16    82.84    47.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle        12   24  +12      98.54    10.44    55.78    54.52    77.18    97.49    84.93P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          12   20  +12      88.55    11.21    52.38    17.11    41.26    87.14    55.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    12   20   +5      72.03    12.09    13.81     1.52     5.40    38.38    12.75P    0.46R    0.04  
Blackpool        12   19   +3      74.16    12.35    16.74     1.96     6.97    45.29    15.76P    0.36R    0.04  
Preston          12   19   +2      64.50    12.19    -0.58     0.47     1.77    18.36     4.71P    1.99R    0.20  
Nottm_Forest     12   19   +2      67.82    11.64     6.23     0.40     1.99    24.69     7.03P    0.81R    0.08  
Leicester        12   18   +2      64.88    11.67     3.94     0.29     1.35    18.21     5.38P    1.50R    0.13  
Bristol_City     12   18   +1      69.02    11.98     8.79     0.63     2.73    28.29     9.37P    0.76R    0.08  
QPR              11   17   +7      81.44    12.57    33.90     7.21    19.94    68.67    34.85P    0.10R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd        12   17   +2      62.62    11.94    -0.77     0.26     1.03    14.54     3.37P    2.93R    0.36  
Watford          12   17   -2      58.19    12.11   -13.25     0.12     0.46     8.22     1.74P    6.83R    1.18  
Sheff_Wed        12   16   +3      67.62    11.83    11.21     0.51     2.26    25.58     7.38P    0.94R    0.07  
Crystal_Palace   11   16   +0      65.08    12.62     2.80     0.35     1.56    20.06     5.66P    2.34R    0.27  
Coventry         12   16   -2      56.43    12.03   -13.73     0.10     0.41     6.33     1.43P    8.94R    1.55  
Swansea          12   15   -2      51.67    11.07   -12.65     0.01     0.06     2.16     0.58P   14.44R    2.55  
Derby            12   14   -4      53.58    11.76   -16.60     0.02     0.12     3.42     0.69P   13.12R    2.59  
Scunthorpe       12   14   -5      57.15    11.89   -12.72     0.04     0.27     6.40     1.21P    8.37R    1.69  
Barnsley         12   14   -7      46.13    10.97   -33.79     0.01     0.03     0.88     0.14P   31.49R    7.96  
Doncaster        12   11   -3      48.48    11.01   -14.05     0.00     0.03     1.26     0.31P   21.94R    4.96  
Reading          12   10   -8      43.55    11.25   -27.60     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.08P   40.13R   13.39  
Peterborough     12    8   -7      44.90    11.79   -25.21     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.16P   35.70R   12.35  
Plymouth         12    8  -11      42.44    11.30   -30.82     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.09P   44.21R   16.86  
Ipswich          12    6  -12      37.20    11.30   -43.86     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   62.63R   33.64  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2009, Charlton vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton         13   28  +11      91.22    10.74    41.14    17.68    41.83    90.13    55.13P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     11   27  +13      99.09    11.07    48.93    48.29    70.57    96.82    79.37P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          13   26   +6      79.90    10.97    19.67     2.53     9.32    61.44    22.19P    0.04R    0.00  
Colchester       13   25  +13      93.58     9.91    52.67    24.32    52.53    94.76    66.81P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   12   22   +3      74.58    11.82    13.61     1.89     5.93    43.00    12.36P    0.34R    0.01  
Norwich          12   19   +6      74.79    11.55    23.27     1.32     4.73    44.90    12.01P    0.31R    0.00  
Swindon          13   19   -3      59.93    11.36   -10.75     0.05     0.26     7.76     1.43P    6.22R    0.38  
Huddersfield     13   18   +8      79.33    11.18    37.48     2.97     9.97    62.40    22.79P    0.11R    0.00  
Millwall         13   18   +8      71.66    10.75    21.23     0.61     2.70    33.24    12.04P    0.35R    0.01  
Southend         13   17   +2      64.25    11.24     5.34     0.08     0.67    14.13     3.27P    2.38R    0.14  
Walsall          13   17   -1      59.46    11.09    -4.66     0.02     0.18     6.56     1.39P    5.82R    0.25  
Oldham           13   17   -3      56.36    11.08   -10.61     0.02     0.12     3.91     0.81P    9.88R    0.72  
Hartlepool       13   16   +0      62.16    11.26     2.43     0.08     0.32    10.41     2.47P    3.69R    0.17  
Yeovil           13   15   +1      55.59    11.10    -5.98     0.00     0.07     3.82     0.74P   10.52R    0.74  
Leyton_Orient    13   15   -7      50.36    10.78   -25.23     0.00     0.01     1.16     0.17P   23.12R    2.73  
Gillingham       13   14   -3      57.47    11.32    -7.22     0.01     0.09     5.13     0.94P    9.13R    0.55  
Brentford        13   14   -4      53.93    10.69   -10.93     0.00     0.02     2.13     0.39P   13.30R    1.10  
Stockport        13   14   -7      46.35    10.28   -28.80     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.07P   35.71R    4.47  
Brighton         13   13   -7      45.00    10.41   -31.71     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.06P   41.32R    6.00  
Exeter           13   13   -9      46.06    10.33   -29.35     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.05P   37.06R    4.92  
Carlisle         13   11   -6      42.17    10.32   -29.81     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P   51.47R    9.80  
Tranmere         13   10  -17      30.78     8.92   -68.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.44R   53.44  
Southampton      13    8   +5      65.27    11.09    26.44     0.13     0.68    16.84     5.47P    2.04R    0.11  
Wycombe          13    7   -9      40.21    10.50   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   57.77R   14.46  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          13   28   +9      87.05    11.03    29.99    16.54    47.20    83.68    57.63P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            13   27  +11      86.41    10.89    35.28    14.25    45.37    83.58    54.69P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             13   26  +11      85.55    11.13    34.91    13.58    42.51    81.07    52.76P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            13   25   +8      82.28    10.88    27.18     7.39    29.89    72.26    41.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         13   22  +17      93.55     9.88    67.33    38.20    74.10    95.64    81.77P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            12   21   +9      75.89    12.01    22.42     3.54    16.62    51.86    25.42P    0.02R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           13   21   +4      69.84    11.15     9.59     0.90     5.91    30.16    11.07P    0.05R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        13   21   +4      75.02    11.31    18.38     1.96    12.20    48.52    21.06P    0.03R    0.01  
Barnet               13   21   +4      76.10    11.27    19.52     2.39    13.94    52.35    23.75P    0.02R    0.01  
Chesterfield         13   20   -1      66.21    11.14     0.10     0.24     2.79    19.67     6.07P    0.19R    0.01  
Port_Vale            13   18   +2      66.51    11.37     7.72     0.43     3.34    21.60     7.92P    0.18R    0.01  
Bradford             13   17   -2      64.88    11.33     2.18     0.28     2.50    17.50     5.56P    0.39R    0.04  
Bury                 12   17   -3      51.97    11.45   -22.94     0.01     0.22     2.95     0.73P    4.55R    0.56  
Accrington_Stanley   13   16   -2      54.65    11.22   -15.74     0.02     0.34     3.92     1.04P    3.17R    0.31  
Macclesfield         13   16   -6      52.97    10.91   -20.66     0.02     0.24     2.67     0.74P    4.08R    0.43  
Crewe                13   15   -2      54.58    10.99   -15.73     0.03     0.36     3.75     0.97P    2.70R    0.26  
Northampton          13   15   -3      62.64    11.62     0.20     0.15     1.59    13.56     3.98P    0.90R    0.08  
Hereford             13   15   -3      56.01    11.18   -10.88     0.03     0.30     4.82     1.17P    2.11R    0.28  
Lincoln_City         13   15   -8      49.51    10.77   -22.84     0.00     0.05     1.10     0.26P    7.62R    0.96  
Cheltenham           13   14   -7      48.48    10.47   -27.76     0.01     0.05     0.88     0.15P    7.79R    1.06  
Morecambe            13   12   -7      57.40    11.36    -7.98     0.01     0.36     5.90     1.50P    2.26R    0.28  
Torquay              13   10   -6      52.10    11.46   -11.96     0.00     0.12     2.54     0.63P    4.96R    0.81  
Grimsby              13   10  -14      32.88     9.14   -58.17     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    65.73R   18.75  
Darlington           13    5  -15      22.65     7.84   -60.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.26R   76.14  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2009, AFC_Wimbledon vs Kettering; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         17   40  +24     104.90     8.00    67.74    74.68    99.41    83.39P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          16   33  +16      90.98     9.20    42.09     8.84    84.12    32.79P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          16   33  +12      91.15     9.31    39.22     9.60    84.42    30.86P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          17   32   +9      78.88     9.40    20.31     0.67    37.08     6.05P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              16   31   +7      86.18     9.59    29.48     3.82    67.86    17.48P    0.00     0.00  
York               16   27   +8      79.64     9.44    26.28     0.71    41.40     9.67P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      17   27   +6      69.49     9.32    10.57     0.06     9.34     1.80P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      16   26  +12      81.84     9.26    38.09     1.51    52.22    13.43P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   17   26   +6      65.04     9.11     3.73     0.02     3.94     0.65P    0.02R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      17   24  +11      68.98     9.37    19.68     0.05     9.52     1.99P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         17   24   +2      64.92     9.20     4.45     0.01     3.63     0.69P    0.03R    0.00  
Histon             17   24   +1      62.12     9.16    -3.32     0.01     2.10     0.30P    0.07R    0.00  
Tamworth           17   22   +0      62.79     9.01     0.61     0.01     2.12     0.35P    0.09R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       17   22   -8      54.75     9.02   -17.77     0.00     0.26     0.05P    0.83R    0.01  
Barrow             17   20   -9      52.22     9.06   -21.20     0.00     0.12     0.01P    1.90R    0.03  
Wrexham            14   17   +1      59.21    10.60    -0.85     0.00     1.93     0.39P    0.63R    0.02  
Salisbury          17   17   +0      56.20     9.19    -1.22     0.00     0.49     0.09P    0.63R    0.01  
Eastbourne_Boro    17   16  -12      42.60     8.33   -32.99     0.00     0.00     0.00P   14.03R    0.75  
Gateshead          16   12  -10      44.69     9.33   -26.74     0.00     0.03     0.00P   11.69R    0.60  
Hayes_&_Yeading    16   11  -11      40.67     8.93   -33.90     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.95R    1.84  
Grays_Athletic     16   11  -15      41.00     8.87   -36.10     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.65R    1.95  
Forest_Green       17   11  -22      33.03     7.95   -55.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.26R    9.08  
Ebbsfleet_United   17    9  -21      28.34     7.19   -52.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.76R   22.33  
Chester            16  -10   -7      21.11     8.81   -20.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.44R   63.37  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25