Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 17 October 2009 at 21:02:12 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2009, Arsenal vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          9   22  +12      85.19     9.31    58.94    29.22    53.09    70.74    82.68    95.56     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          9   21  +11      80.62    10.04    46.65    17.58    34.49    51.66    67.59    89.80     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        9   19   +8      74.14    10.42    39.37     5.85    15.08    27.53    42.54    73.53     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal          8   18  +16      83.30    10.71    76.39    27.30    48.36    63.55    74.79    90.45     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         7   16   +7      77.50    11.70    41.97    11.98    26.09    41.15    55.18    79.05     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      8   16   +5      68.51    11.84    23.36     2.72     7.68    15.19    25.70    53.34     0.06R    0.00  
Sunderland       9   16   +4      61.45    10.81    10.54     0.45     1.70     4.22     8.68    27.22     0.17R    0.01  
Liverpool        9   15   +9      73.04    10.15    45.37     4.84    13.19    24.83    39.50    72.28     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke            9   12   -3      47.94    10.69   -10.93     0.01     0.07     0.24     0.73     4.07     3.77R    0.52  
Burnley          8   12   -9      44.62    11.22   -27.21     0.00     0.05     0.18     0.49     2.58     9.24R    1.60  
Everton          8   11   -2      37.60    10.83   -38.37     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.18     1.16    23.62R    4.99  
Wigan            8    9   -7      40.67    10.48   -26.15     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.16     1.25    13.65R    2.41  
Bolton           8    8   -2      48.24    11.54    -8.07     0.02     0.11     0.40     1.11     5.01     5.33R    0.71  
Wolverhampton    9    8   -7      28.91     8.83   -49.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08    55.97R   18.69  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.21    11.46   -24.42     0.01     0.04     0.11     0.27     1.43    19.65R    4.21  
Birmingham       9    7   -5      39.68    10.35   -14.03     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.79    15.38R    2.67  
Blackburn        7    7   -7      38.62    11.27   -31.76     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.15     1.11    21.38R    5.35  
Hull             8    7  -12      32.01     9.99   -51.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14    43.45R   15.24  
West_Ham         8    5   -4      40.20    11.05   -19.43     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.16     1.15    15.81R    3.64  
Portsmouth       9    3  -10      24.37     8.63   -41.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    72.53R   39.97  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2009, Blackpool vs Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Brom        12   24  +12      86.90    11.67    40.11    14.23    35.17    82.77    47.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle        12   24  +12      98.35    10.54    55.59    53.59    76.34    97.48    84.46P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          12   20  +12      88.52    11.44    52.29    17.48    41.49    86.92    55.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    12   20   +5      71.31    12.03    12.63     1.55     5.02    36.21    11.87P    0.45R    0.04  
Blackpool        12   19   +3      74.26    12.29    16.90     1.97     7.00    46.01    15.99P    0.35R    0.04  
Preston          12   19   +2      64.47    12.17    -0.53     0.46     1.69    18.54     4.79P    2.12R    0.23  
Nottm_Forest     12   19   +2      68.16    11.63     6.73     0.48     2.11    26.06     7.59P    0.72R    0.03  
Leicester        12   18   +2      64.37    11.68     3.12     0.30     1.41    17.13     4.92P    1.62R    0.13  
Bristol_City     12   18   +1      68.73    11.97     8.47     0.60     2.52    27.80     8.85P    0.89R    0.07  
QPR              11   17   +7      81.61    12.61    34.30     7.88    20.85    69.59    35.35P    0.13R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd        12   17   +2      62.26    11.80    -1.53     0.22     0.98    14.04     3.25P    3.17R    0.37  
Watford          12   17   -2      57.84    11.92   -13.90     0.10     0.46     7.61     1.59P    7.23R    1.21  
Sheff_Wed        12   16   +3      67.62    11.92    11.19     0.59     2.49    26.30     7.67P    1.04R    0.09  
Crystal_Palace   11   16   +0      65.45    12.47     3.37     0.34     1.58    20.82     5.83P    2.22R    0.24  
Coventry         12   16   -2      56.37    11.99   -13.92     0.10     0.40     6.15     1.40P    9.44R    1.64  
Swansea          12   15   -2      51.87    11.10   -12.39     0.01     0.08     2.53     0.68P   14.20R    2.36  
Derby            12   14   -4      53.53    11.77   -16.51     0.02     0.13     3.63     0.70P   13.81R    2.92  
Scunthorpe       12   14   -5      56.59    11.91   -13.93     0.07     0.22     6.05     1.06P    9.40R    1.84  
Barnsley         12   14   -7      46.63    11.12   -32.80     0.00     0.02     0.91     0.13P   30.70R    7.96  
Doncaster        12   11   -3      48.82    10.91   -13.55     0.00     0.02     1.26     0.27P   21.16R    4.55  
Reading          12   10   -8      44.10    11.25   -26.84     0.00     0.01     0.62     0.09P   38.28R   12.66  
Peterborough     12    8   -7      45.18    11.81   -24.61     0.00     0.01     0.85     0.16P   35.52R   11.70  
Plymouth         12    8  -11      42.51    11.50   -30.63     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.10P   44.67R   17.59  
Ipswich          12    6  -12      37.38    11.52   -43.55     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P   62.86R   34.30  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2009, Charlton vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton         13   28  +11      91.11    10.69    40.97    17.66    41.60    90.31    54.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United     11   27  +13      98.51    11.31    48.06    46.45    69.17    95.99    78.20P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          13   26   +6      79.59    10.95    19.31     2.61     9.19    60.19    21.44P    0.03R    0.00  
Colchester       13   25  +13      93.48    10.08    52.45    25.50    52.52    94.45    66.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   12   22   +3      74.76    11.87    13.84     1.94     6.16    43.54    12.59P    0.34R    0.01  
Norwich          12   19   +6      74.85    11.58    23.57     1.51     5.35    44.98    12.61P    0.24R    0.00  
Swindon          13   19   -3      59.94    11.37   -10.89     0.06     0.27     7.79     1.44P    6.02R    0.34  
Huddersfield     13   18   +8      79.70    10.98    38.06     3.17    10.63    63.35    23.82P    0.10R    0.00  
Millwall         13   18   +8      71.94    10.77    21.56     0.70     2.86    33.89    12.45P    0.28R    0.00  
Southend         13   17   +2      64.41    11.11     5.59     0.09     0.63    14.29     3.30P    2.28R    0.07  
Walsall          13   17   -1      59.66    11.04    -4.27     0.04     0.24     6.65     1.52P    5.41R    0.20  
Oldham           13   17   -3      55.83    11.22   -11.25     0.01     0.13     3.75     0.79P   11.17R    1.02  
Hartlepool       13   16   +0      62.16    11.29     2.36     0.07     0.35    10.68     2.62P    3.85R    0.22  
Yeovil           13   15   +1      55.67    11.15    -6.00     0.02     0.07     3.88     0.85P   10.68R    0.69  
Leyton_Orient    13   15   -7      50.29    10.74   -25.39     0.01     0.02     1.18     0.19P   23.58R    2.60  
Gillingham       13   14   -3      57.47    11.58    -7.21     0.03     0.21     5.78     1.14P    9.38R    0.61  
Brentford        13   14   -4      53.85    10.66   -11.03     0.00     0.03     2.10     0.41P   13.41R    1.18  
Stockport        13   14   -7      46.55    10.66   -28.52     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.09P   35.84R    4.98  
Brighton         13   13   -7      45.23    10.28   -31.31     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.03P   39.95R    5.64  
Exeter           13   13   -9      46.30    10.46   -28.92     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.06P   36.32R    4.74  
Carlisle         13   11   -6      42.10    10.24   -29.97     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P   51.98R    9.97  
Tranmere         13   10  -17      30.95     8.83   -68.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.24R   53.07  
Southampton      13    8   +5      64.94    11.02    25.69     0.11     0.55    15.61     4.95P    2.08R    0.13  
Wycombe          13    7   -9      40.20    10.41   -28.12     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   57.83R   14.52  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          13   28   +9      87.51    11.07    30.84    17.69    48.35    84.88    58.65P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            13   27  +11      86.58    10.91    35.46    14.95    45.65    83.98    55.19P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             13   26  +11      85.27    11.01    34.43    12.96    41.17    80.77    51.90P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            13   25   +8      82.66    10.97    27.67     7.72    31.35    74.09    42.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         13   22  +17      93.33     9.83    66.86    36.86    73.08    95.61    80.97P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            12   21   +9      75.95    12.09    22.53     3.64    16.73    51.76    25.47P    0.02R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           13   21   +4      70.13    11.23    10.11     0.90     6.31    31.55    11.70P    0.10R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        13   21   +4      74.65    11.42    17.73     1.89    11.85    47.03    20.16P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet               13   21   +4      76.14    11.20    19.59     2.34    14.28    52.50    23.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         13   20   -1      65.97    11.22    -0.30     0.27     2.65    19.37     5.97P    0.23R    0.03  
Bradford             13   17   -2      64.95    11.27     2.27     0.26     2.33    17.57     5.45P    0.42R    0.05  
Bury                 12   17   -3      51.53    10.97   -23.74     0.00     0.15     2.39     0.61P    4.71R    0.69  
Accrington_Stanley   13   16   -2      54.59    11.16   -15.96     0.02     0.33     3.95     0.96P    3.27R    0.34  
Macclesfield         13   16   -6      53.41    11.00   -20.03     0.02     0.22     2.96     0.70P    3.76R    0.44  
Port_Vale            12   15   +1      62.74    11.84     3.54     0.17     1.94    14.72     5.26P    0.63R    0.05  
Crewe                12   15   -1      57.85    11.68   -10.75     0.08     0.77     7.55     2.05P    1.76R    0.16  
Northampton          13   15   -3      63.47    11.42     1.69     0.17     1.82    14.88     4.51P    0.68R    0.10  
Hereford             13   15   -3      56.14    11.13   -10.73     0.02     0.36     4.90     1.33P    2.18R    0.26  
Lincoln_City         13   15   -8      49.11    10.67   -23.21     0.01     0.07     1.11     0.28P    7.65R    0.94  
Cheltenham           13   14   -7      48.72    10.63   -27.26     0.00     0.05     1.13     0.23P    7.90R    1.22  
Morecambe            13   12   -7      56.95    11.52    -8.93     0.02     0.46     5.39     1.41P    2.70R    0.43  
Torquay              13   10   -6      51.21    11.12   -13.45     0.00     0.08     1.91     0.47P    5.85R    1.01  
Grimsby              13   10  -14      32.95     9.13   -58.30     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    65.53R   19.64  
Darlington           13    5  -15      22.99     8.04   -60.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.57R   74.64  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2009, AFC_Wimbledon vs Kettering; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         17   40  +24     105.11     7.98    68.13    75.41    99.52    84.05P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          16   33  +16      90.81     9.25    41.94     8.84    83.53    31.97P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          16   33  +12      91.08     9.18    39.18     9.13    84.46    30.18P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          17   32   +9      79.11     9.39    20.64     0.67    38.10     6.29P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              16   31   +7      86.34     9.57    29.78     3.72    68.28    17.71P    0.00     0.00  
York               16   27   +8      79.73     9.55    26.40     0.70    41.44    10.09P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      17   27   +6      69.69     9.28    10.85     0.07     9.38     1.78P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      16   26  +12      81.82     9.33    37.97     1.34    51.90    13.68P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   17   26   +6      65.12     9.13     4.05     0.02     3.98     0.66P    0.03R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      17   24  +11      68.67     9.29    19.06     0.05     8.81     1.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         17   24   +2      64.98     9.20     4.58     0.03     3.50     0.69P    0.03R    0.00  
Histon             17   24   +1      61.90     9.25    -3.66     0.00     2.06     0.24P    0.11R    0.00  
Tamworth           17   22   +0      62.52     9.07     0.23     0.01     2.09     0.34P    0.09R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       17   22   -8      55.02     9.08   -17.30     0.00     0.28     0.03P    0.73R    0.01  
Barrow             17   20   -9      52.07     9.05   -21.42     0.00     0.14     0.02P    1.99R    0.07  
Wrexham            14   17   +1      59.49    10.50    -0.38     0.01     2.09     0.43P    0.58R    0.01  
Salisbury          17   17   +0      55.98     9.20    -1.57     0.00     0.42     0.05P    0.62R    0.01  
Eastbourne_Boro    17   16  -12      42.70     8.36   -32.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.62R    0.75  
Gateshead          16   12  -10      44.30     9.22   -27.38     0.00     0.02     0.00P   12.31R    0.78  
Hayes_&_Yeading    16   11  -11      40.67     9.00   -34.05     0.00     0.00     0.00P   21.63R    1.88  
Grays_Athletic     16   11  -15      40.90     8.82   -36.09     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.43R    2.12  
Forest_Green       17   11  -22      33.02     7.82   -55.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.43R    8.88  
Ebbsfleet_United   17    9  -21      28.33     7.33   -52.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.56R   23.23  
Chester            16  -10   -7      21.38     8.92   -20.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.84R   62.24  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25