Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 16 October 2009 at 21:02:03 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 October 2009, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea          8   21  +12      84.38    10.35    51.99    24.77    44.03    61.37    76.13    94.31     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   19  +11      86.09     9.42    66.06    27.81    51.91    70.32    83.19    96.56     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        8   16   +7      75.37    10.85    45.43     5.82    15.46    28.71    44.86    77.95     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City         7   16   +7      77.39    12.02    42.87     9.98    23.26    38.08    52.75    79.84     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          7   15  +14      83.03    11.04    76.16    22.86    42.30    58.30    71.90    90.89     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        8   15  +10      76.03    10.76    54.27     7.17    18.02    31.65    47.85    80.81     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      7   13   +4      64.09    12.68    17.10     1.41     4.13     8.70    15.64    40.01     0.29R    0.01  
Sunderland       8   13   +3      57.23    11.37     2.95     0.13     0.64     1.95     4.75    19.19     0.74R    0.05  
Burnley          8   12   -9      45.37    11.28   -25.59     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.38     3.01     8.17R    1.30  
Everton          7   10   -2      40.51    11.73   -35.56     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.39     2.46    17.45R    3.19  
Stoke            8    9   -4      44.45    11.21   -13.46     0.00     0.03     0.11     0.41     2.95     8.19R    1.29  
Wigan            8    9   -7      42.16    10.68   -25.08     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.18     1.73    10.99R    1.43  
Bolton           7    8   -1      45.29    11.82   -17.78     0.01     0.10     0.28     0.76     3.96     8.82R    1.18  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      39.25    11.11   -15.58     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.20     1.32    17.63R    3.23  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.16    11.69   -26.13     0.01     0.02     0.08     0.27     1.65    19.79R    3.83  
Blackburn        7    7   -7      38.96    11.06   -32.42     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.09     0.97    19.86R    4.12  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -7      28.10     8.95   -52.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    58.86R   20.03  
Hull             8    7  -12      32.75     9.87   -49.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.19    39.72R   11.50  
West_Ham         7    5   -3      42.54    11.68   -15.26     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.24     2.14    12.44R    2.46  
Portsmouth       8    3   -9      22.88     9.09   -47.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    77.03R   46.38  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Barnsley vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        11   24  +13     102.61    10.40    62.52    63.61    83.46    98.66    89.43P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        11   21  +10      87.47    12.07    42.05    11.20    33.26    82.00    46.87P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    11   20   +6      79.08    12.87    24.98     4.34    13.60    59.55    24.27P    0.14R    0.01  
Cardiff          11   19  +12      89.23    11.83    53.11    14.51    40.17    85.95    54.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          11   19   +6      72.58    12.76    15.38     1.53     5.85    38.90    13.07P    0.38R    0.03  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +4      68.77    12.84    10.14     0.67     2.96    28.70     8.02P    1.15R    0.15  
Leicester        11   17   +2      68.33    12.73     8.09     0.55     2.79    26.46     8.70P    1.09R    0.09  
Bristol_City     11   17   +1      72.27    12.82    12.97     1.06     4.95    37.59    13.94P    0.45R    0.05  
Blackpool        11   16   +1      69.70    13.09    10.36     0.61     3.51    31.16     9.54P    1.19R    0.13  
Nottm_Forest     11   16   +1      59.98    12.11    -3.90     0.11     0.46     9.93     2.56P    3.82R    0.48  
Coventry         11   16   +0      61.98    12.84    -4.49     0.22     1.07    13.30     3.26P    4.11R    0.66  
Crystal_Palace   10   15   +0      61.95    13.28    -2.62     0.16     0.98    14.64     4.03P    4.08R    0.54  
QPR              10   14   +3      71.18    13.79    15.88     1.17     5.31    36.44    13.55P    1.08R    0.14  
Swansea          11   14   -2      53.78    11.86   -10.06     0.02     0.13     3.36     0.95P   10.91R    2.03  
Watford          11   14   -3      53.51    12.46   -21.24     0.02     0.18     4.32     0.79P   13.70R    2.95  
Sheff_Wed        11   13   +1      63.15    12.53     4.48     0.14     0.93    15.73     3.98P    2.72R    0.36  
Derby            11   13   -4      51.02    12.09   -22.65     0.02     0.11     2.58     0.49P   17.52R    3.81  
Doncaster        11   11   -2      55.59    12.07    -5.17     0.02     0.18     4.99     1.27P    8.43R    1.44  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -7      51.27    12.68   -22.92     0.01     0.07     2.90     0.47P   18.52R    5.09  
Barnsley         11   11   -8      42.75    11.39   -39.54     0.00     0.01     0.45     0.07P   41.28R   14.31  
Reading          11   10   -6      46.05    11.72   -23.36     0.00     0.02     1.00     0.18P   29.36R    8.39  
Plymouth         11    8   -9      42.36    11.82   -32.05     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.10P   42.07R   15.80  
Peterborough     11    7   -7      41.53    11.94   -32.21     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.07P   44.93R   17.82  
Ipswich          11    5  -12      39.17    12.21   -39.74     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.04P   53.04R   25.71  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 13 October 2009, Brighton vs Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     11   27  +13      99.02    11.13    48.85    44.67    69.29    96.95    79.20P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         12   25  +10      88.84    11.56    38.93    12.89    32.09    85.85    47.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Colchester       12   24  +13      95.95    10.20    55.94    30.80    60.88    96.56    73.67P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          12   23   +4      77.00    11.76    16.06     1.85     6.65    52.62    18.02P    0.20R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   11   22   +4      76.74    12.41    16.00     3.05     8.62    52.03    16.10P    0.28R    0.00  
Norwich          12   19   +6      74.19    11.76    21.98     1.16     4.29    45.00    11.71P    0.41R    0.00  
Swindon          12   19   -1      64.82    12.13    -2.69     0.21     1.03    17.96     3.88P    3.41R    0.11  
Huddersfield     12   18   +9      81.41    11.63    40.45     4.91    14.56    69.52    29.11P    0.08R    0.00  
Oldham           12   17   -1      60.27    11.78    -4.30     0.07     0.38     9.61     2.39P    6.28R    0.34  
Millwall         12   15   +4      64.50    11.15     9.74     0.13     0.67    15.79     4.99P    2.11R    0.06  
Southend         12   14   +1      62.26    12.31     3.47     0.13     0.68    14.54     3.59P    5.19R    0.30  
Gillingham       12   14   -1      58.23    11.64    -6.28     0.02     0.13     7.18     1.21P    9.12R    0.34  
Stockport        12   14   -3      52.80    11.10   -14.93     0.01     0.04     2.50     0.51P   18.05R    1.04  
Brentford        12   14   -3      56.87    11.40    -7.32     0.02     0.11     5.18     1.14P   10.19R    0.58  
Walsall          12   14   -4      54.24    11.32   -12.99     0.01     0.06     3.36     0.70P   15.51R    0.77  
Hartlepool       12   13   -2      56.81    11.89    -5.34     0.03     0.15     5.72     1.33P   11.72R    0.72  
Brighton         12   13   -6      48.56    11.18   -26.83     0.00     0.02     1.19     0.18P   31.00R    3.19  
Exeter           12   13   -6      49.95    11.10   -21.51     0.00     0.01     1.51     0.21P   26.12R    1.95  
Yeovil           12   12   -1      53.42    11.69    -8.80     0.01     0.07     3.44     0.74P   17.42R    1.09  
Leyton_Orient    12   12   -8      48.03    11.36   -27.64     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.15P   33.01R    3.86  
Carlisle         12   11   -4      44.41    10.95   -26.11     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.11P   44.61R    5.67  
Tranmere         12    7  -18      27.47     9.34   -74.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.06R   64.65  
Wycombe          12    6   -9      37.95    10.52   -32.41     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   67.08R   14.96  
Southampton      12    5   +3      61.69    11.68    20.48     0.03     0.28    11.70     3.88P    5.16R    0.37  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 16 October 2009, Cheltenham vs Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          12   25   +8      85.04    11.70    28.68    12.81    39.45    77.12    50.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            12   24  +10      86.85    11.46    38.04    15.77    46.75    81.90    56.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham            12   24   +8      81.99    11.45    26.24     7.88    29.39    69.14    39.04P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             12   23   +9      82.50    11.85    30.54     9.44    31.82    70.53    41.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         12   21  +17      93.92    10.31    68.85    38.79    72.80    94.87    80.19P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            12   21   +9      75.37    12.34    21.41     3.50    15.57    48.46    23.90P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet               12   21   +6      80.76    11.48    26.75     5.71    25.50    65.84    36.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           12   21   +5      76.43    11.59    19.43     3.21    15.37    50.84    23.46P    0.02R    0.00  
Chesterfield         12   20   +0      69.56    11.67     4.09     0.77     5.69    27.81    10.13P    0.11R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        12   18   +2      71.56    11.91    13.22     1.25     8.08    35.44    14.83P    0.07R    0.00  
Bradford             12   17   -1      65.91    11.73     2.15     0.36     3.26    19.61     6.38P    0.39R    0.02  
Bury                 12   17   -3      50.84    11.06   -25.28     0.01     0.16     2.07     0.56P    5.25R    0.15  
Accrington_Stanley   12   16   -1      56.73    11.69   -13.83     0.07     0.67     5.86     1.67P    2.53R    0.12  
Macclesfield         13   16   -6      53.18    10.90   -20.67     0.01     0.18     2.59     0.62P    3.87R    0.13  
Port_Vale            12   15   +1      62.30    12.09     2.72     0.18     1.82    13.42     4.90P    0.77R    0.01  
Crewe                12   15   -1      57.75    11.77   -11.10     0.04     0.71     6.92     1.86P    1.82R    0.05  
Lincoln_City         12   15   -7      50.15    11.10   -23.67     0.00     0.10     1.58     0.39P    7.32R    0.26  
Cheltenham           13   14   -7      48.46    10.58   -27.87     0.00     0.04     0.91     0.21P    8.41R    0.30  
Northampton          12   12   -4      62.27    11.88     1.25     0.14     1.59    12.68     3.90P    0.98R    0.03  
Hereford             12   12   -4      53.68    11.69   -13.69     0.01     0.27     3.64     0.99P    3.99R    0.23  
Morecambe            12   11   -7      56.90    11.87    -9.55     0.03     0.46     5.50     1.45P    3.15R    0.16  
Grimsby              12   10  -12      34.68     9.84   -56.93     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.01P   57.51R    6.27  
Torquay              12    9   -6      52.70    12.14   -11.56     0.03     0.31     3.23     0.99P    5.42R    0.37  
Darlington           12    2  -16      16.50     7.08   -69.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.35R   91.90  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 October 2009, Altrincham vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         16   39  +24     105.48     8.44    68.40    79.00    99.32    85.86P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          15   30  +14      88.63     9.65    38.51     7.11    76.70    28.63P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          15   30  +11      87.38     9.67    34.64     5.18    72.81    23.05P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          16   29   +8      76.68     9.85    18.04     0.55    30.27     5.32P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              15   28   +6      83.45    10.05    27.05     2.53    56.93    13.66P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      15   26  +13      85.21     9.50    42.72     3.65    66.19    20.54P    0.00     0.00  
York               15   26   +8      79.87     9.92    26.31     1.34    42.99    10.88P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      16   24  +14      75.23     9.72    31.49     0.50    26.71     6.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster      16   24   +5      68.46     9.59    10.14     0.05     8.71     1.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         16   24   +3      66.99     9.52     6.46     0.05     6.26     1.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   16   23   +5      64.16     9.50     4.22     0.01     3.73     0.62P    0.04R    0.00  
Tamworth           16   22   +1      64.40     9.46     2.31     0.01     3.82     0.65P    0.04R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       16   22   -7      56.32     9.43   -16.56     0.01     0.52     0.07P    0.52R    0.00  
Histon             16   21   -2      60.02     9.57    -6.44     0.00     1.71     0.28P    0.23R    0.00  
Salisbury          16   17   +2      56.78     9.48    -0.38     0.00     0.68     0.14P    0.52R    0.00  
Barrow             16   17  -11      50.89     9.47   -22.89     0.00     0.11     0.02P    2.91R    0.09  
Eastbourne_Boro    16   16  -11      43.55     8.72   -32.79     0.00     0.02     0.00    10.68R    0.40  
Wrexham            13   14   +0      58.74    11.15     0.24     0.00     2.38     0.57P    0.95R    0.03  
Gateshead          15   12   -9      48.81     9.82   -20.96     0.00     0.11     0.02P    5.46R    0.26  
Grays_Athletic     15   11  -14      41.96     9.12   -35.72     0.00     0.01     0.00    16.49R    1.36  
Forest_Green       16   11  -19      33.47     8.18   -51.92     0.00     0.00     0.00P   51.14R    5.87  
Ebbsfleet_United   16    9  -19      29.72     7.67   -50.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.58R   12.94  
Hayes_&_Yeading    15    8  -14      34.05     8.89   -48.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.37R    5.88  
Chester            15  -13   -8      17.84     9.08   -24.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.05R   73.17  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25