Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 15 October 2009 at 21:02:12 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 October 2009, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea          8   21  +12      84.76    10.30    53.10    25.68    45.43    62.70    77.12    94.16     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   19  +11      86.18     9.33    66.00    28.11    51.87    70.29    83.29    96.70     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        8   16   +7      74.90    10.87    44.34     4.86    14.17    27.38    43.12    75.98     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City         7   16   +7      77.22    12.06    42.30    10.05    22.81    37.03    51.52    79.08     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          7   15  +14      82.68    11.01    75.59    21.46    40.56    57.08    70.72    90.21     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        8   15  +10      76.47    10.88    55.67     8.25    19.88    33.41    49.38    81.27     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      7   13   +4      64.40    12.55    17.51     1.36     4.11     8.62    15.76    40.27     0.27R    0.02  
Sunderland       8   13   +3      57.84    11.63     4.36     0.18     0.86     2.38     5.77    21.12     0.64R    0.04  
Burnley          8   12   -9      45.29    11.28   -25.62     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.43     3.11     7.81R    1.26  
Everton          7   10   -2      39.85    11.51   -36.68     0.01     0.05     0.14     0.36     2.01    18.70R    3.38  
Stoke            8    9   -4      44.79    11.31   -13.07     0.01     0.05     0.16     0.52     3.16     7.74R    1.13  
Wigan            8    9   -7      41.25    10.67   -27.06     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.17     1.41    12.48R    1.82  
Bolton           7    8   -1      45.42    12.09   -17.73     0.02     0.11     0.30     0.77     4.39     8.66R    1.26  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      39.28    11.20   -15.50     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.18     1.27    17.86R    3.30  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.14    11.58   -25.99     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.29     1.68    19.56R    3.71  
Blackburn        7    7   -7      39.43    11.35   -31.42     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.21     1.59    18.85R    3.75  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -7      28.08     9.35   -53.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    59.24R   20.52  
Hull             8    7  -12      33.20    10.08   -48.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.24    37.63R   10.60  
West_Ham         7    5   -3      42.33    11.78   -15.93     0.01     0.03     0.12     0.36     2.28    12.52R    2.48  
Portsmouth       8    3   -9      22.67     8.82   -47.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    78.03R   46.73  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Barnsley vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        11   24  +13     102.92    10.39    63.10    64.61    84.27    98.66    89.91P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        11   21  +10      87.58    12.05    42.15    11.30    33.02    82.03    46.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    11   20   +6      79.07    12.56    25.01     3.73    12.84    59.36    23.57P    0.11R    0.00  
Cardiff          11   19  +12      89.34    11.80    53.29    13.80    40.71    86.26    54.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          11   19   +6      72.67    13.02    15.50     1.56     6.07    39.68    13.49P    0.52R    0.07  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +4      69.28    12.87    11.05     0.85     3.43    30.03     8.85P    1.10R    0.17  
Leicester        11   17   +2      68.60    12.68     8.52     0.57     2.73    27.21     8.83P    1.04R    0.10  
Bristol_City     11   17   +1      71.46    12.76    11.92     0.79     4.07    35.21    12.69P    0.60R    0.06  
Blackpool        11   16   +1      69.40    12.92     9.84     0.68     3.19    30.10     9.06P    1.10R    0.14  
Nottm_Forest     11   16   +1      59.61    12.09    -4.43     0.07     0.42     9.31     2.40P    4.17R    0.50  
Coventry         11   16   +0      62.14    12.90    -4.25     0.22     1.02    13.62     3.25P    4.03R    0.64  
Crystal_Palace   10   15   +0      61.55    12.97    -3.28     0.19     1.01    13.25     3.67P    3.92R    0.65  
QPR              10   14   +3      71.45    13.87    16.39     1.29     5.40    37.44    13.70P    1.02R    0.13  
Swansea          11   14   -2      54.05    12.19    -9.75     0.01     0.16     4.08     1.16P   11.16R    2.21  
Watford          11   14   -3      53.78    12.81   -20.92     0.05     0.28     4.98     1.03P   13.60R    3.18  
Sheff_Wed        11   13   +1      62.99    12.46     4.21     0.19     0.97    15.12     4.00P    2.68R    0.33  
Derby            11   13   -4      50.78    12.09   -23.35     0.02     0.08     2.68     0.52P   17.70R    4.21  
Doncaster        11   11   -2      55.59    12.25    -5.30     0.04     0.18     5.25     1.36P    8.93R    1.71  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -7      50.70    12.55   -24.17     0.01     0.08     2.87     0.48P   19.59R    5.12  
Barnsley         11   11   -8      43.10    11.32   -38.79     0.01     0.02     0.51     0.10P   39.35R   13.42  
Reading          11   10   -6      46.03    11.87   -23.26     0.00     0.02     1.08     0.22P   29.63R    8.90  
Plymouth         11    8   -9      41.70    11.65   -32.93     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.07P   44.51R   16.93  
Peterborough     11    7   -7      41.57    11.94   -32.32     0.00     0.02     0.51     0.11P   44.63R   17.97  
Ipswich          11    5  -12      39.93    12.10   -38.26     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P   50.58R   23.56  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 13 October 2009, Brighton vs Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     11   27  +13      98.70    11.26    48.49    45.19    69.26    96.56    78.81P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         12   25  +10      88.74    11.35    38.85    12.72    32.49    86.08    47.58P    0.02R    0.00  
Colchester       12   24  +13      95.38    10.42    54.87    30.49    59.68    95.88    72.15P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          12   23   +4      76.61    11.51    15.45     1.57     5.97    51.57    16.90P    0.19R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   11   22   +4      77.53    12.18    17.42     3.25     9.61    54.41    17.86P    0.18R    0.00  
Norwich          12   19   +6      74.09    11.65    21.70     1.28     4.56    44.02    11.94P    0.41R    0.00  
Swindon          12   19   -1      64.72    12.00    -2.88     0.28     1.12    17.29     3.90P    3.36R    0.08  
Huddersfield     12   18   +9      81.10    11.53    39.89     4.67    14.25    68.76    28.46P    0.12R    0.00  
Oldham           12   17   -1      60.52    12.04    -3.72     0.11     0.56    10.11     2.82P    6.38R    0.26  
Millwall         12   15   +4      65.34    11.19    10.94     0.16     0.77    17.21     5.53P    1.93R    0.06  
Southend         12   14   +1      62.26    11.96     3.43     0.13     0.69    13.41     3.25P    4.97R    0.19  
Gillingham       12   14   -1      58.47    11.91    -5.79     0.05     0.27     7.89     1.62P    9.16R    0.35  
Stockport        12   14   -3      52.67    11.28   -15.14     0.01     0.04     2.73     0.58P   18.38R    1.00  
Brentford        12   14   -3      56.76    11.32    -7.62     0.01     0.10     4.81     0.99P   10.36R    0.64  
Walsall          12   14   -4      53.95    11.22   -13.51     0.00     0.03     3.03     0.56P   15.63R    0.78  
Hartlepool       12   13   -2      57.06    11.64    -4.92     0.02     0.13     5.55     1.30P   10.56R    0.61  
Brighton         12   13   -6      48.36    11.06   -27.10     0.00     0.03     1.09     0.18P   31.44R    3.12  
Exeter           12   13   -6      49.91    11.30   -21.58     0.00     0.02     1.57     0.27P   26.80R    1.98  
Yeovil           12   12   -1      53.03    11.75    -9.45     0.01     0.07     3.42     0.78P   18.24R    1.30  
Leyton_Orient    12   12   -8      48.32    11.28   -27.03     0.00     0.02     1.17     0.16P   31.85R    3.11  
Carlisle         12   11   -4      44.75    11.17   -25.54     0.00     0.01     0.69     0.17P   43.56R    5.35  
Tranmere         12    7  -18      27.18     9.19   -75.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.57R   65.70  
Wycombe          12    6   -9      37.69    10.27   -32.73     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   68.16R   15.19  
Southampton      12    5   +3      62.16    11.64    21.34     0.05     0.32    12.70     4.17P    4.73R    0.26  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 October 2009, Notts_County vs Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          12   25   +8      84.61    11.70    28.06    11.86    37.87    76.09    48.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            12   24  +10      87.05    11.49    38.41    15.99    46.94    82.63    56.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham            12   24   +8      82.40    11.48    26.96     8.22    30.52    70.31    40.28P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             12   23   +9      83.21    11.82    31.86    10.09    34.55    72.98    44.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         12   21  +17      93.99    10.47    68.77    39.38    72.95    94.61    80.17P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            12   21   +9      75.41    12.16    21.42     3.30    15.50    48.43    23.76P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnet               12   21   +6      80.28    11.74    26.12     5.41    24.77    64.40    35.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           12   21   +5      76.71    11.58    19.91     3.37    16.00    52.46    24.30P    0.03R    0.00  
Chesterfield         12   20   +0      68.94    11.73     3.05     0.62     4.94    26.72     9.21P    0.12R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        12   18   +2      70.65    11.71    11.73     0.87     6.59    32.53    12.72P    0.09R    0.00  
Bradford             12   17   -1      65.96    11.75     2.23     0.37     3.14    19.62     6.51P    0.43R    0.03  
Bury                 12   17   -3      51.58    11.38   -24.02     0.01     0.21     2.51     0.63P    5.09R    0.18  
Accrington_Stanley   12   16   -1      56.89    11.67   -13.69     0.09     0.67     6.06     1.70P    2.45R    0.10  
Port_Vale            12   15   +1      62.48    12.00     2.99     0.17     1.86    13.82     5.19P    0.66R    0.02  
Crewe                12   15   -1      57.72    11.62   -11.14     0.07     0.75     6.64     1.90P    1.67R    0.04  
Lincoln_City         12   15   -7      50.67    11.38   -23.19     0.00     0.11     1.95     0.48P    7.24R    0.30  
Cheltenham           12   14   -6      52.70    11.31   -21.46     0.01     0.16     2.64     0.56P    4.43R    0.14  
Macclesfield         12   13   -7      48.24    11.17   -27.50     0.00     0.06     1.15     0.25P   10.48R    0.59  
Northampton          12   12   -4      61.91    11.96     0.46     0.13     1.50    12.41     3.87P    1.21R    0.05  
Hereford             12   12   -4      53.90    11.58   -13.53     0.01     0.31     3.61     0.97P    3.55R    0.20  
Morecambe            12   11   -7      56.36    11.83   -10.48     0.02     0.43     5.27     1.37P    3.12R    0.18  
Grimsby              12   10  -12      34.97     9.90   -56.23     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   55.79R    6.46  
Torquay              12    9   -6      52.46    12.00   -12.01     0.01     0.18     3.09     0.87P    5.40R    0.37  
Darlington           12    2  -16      16.71     7.12   -68.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.21R   91.32  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 October 2009, Altrincham vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         16   39  +24     105.59     8.34    68.61    79.14    99.34    85.76P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          15   30  +14      88.87     9.72    38.92     7.23    77.09    29.25P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          15   30  +11      87.45     9.75    34.71     5.12    72.34    22.94P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          16   29   +8      76.91     9.80    18.48     0.59    30.90     5.38P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              15   28   +6      84.05     9.91    27.87     2.65    59.31    14.81P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      15   26  +13      85.34     9.44    42.83     3.64    66.58    20.40P    0.00     0.00  
York               15   26   +8      79.45     9.78    25.60     1.04    41.06     9.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      16   24  +14      75.14     9.63    31.34     0.46    26.24     6.57P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      16   24   +5      68.21     9.54     9.72     0.04     7.94     1.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         16   24   +3      67.41     9.45     7.04     0.03     6.64     1.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   16   23   +5      64.02     9.63     3.91     0.02     3.90     0.72P    0.04R    0.00  
Tamworth           16   22   +1      63.75     9.58     1.15     0.02     3.43     0.58P    0.07R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       16   22   -7      56.48     9.47   -16.28     0.00     0.58     0.08P    0.50R    0.02  
Histon             16   21   -2      60.04     9.57    -6.39     0.00     1.47     0.20P    0.20R    0.00  
Salisbury          16   17   +2      56.67     9.39    -0.71     0.00     0.69     0.14P    0.51R    0.01  
Barrow             16   17  -11      50.42     9.43   -23.59     0.00     0.11     0.01P    3.32R    0.09  
Eastbourne_Boro    16   16  -11      43.40     8.80   -33.07     0.00     0.01     0.00P   11.61R    0.43  
Wrexham            13   14   +0      58.59    11.18    -0.10     0.01     2.26     0.57P    0.98R    0.02  
Gateshead          15   12   -9      48.75     9.80   -21.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    5.48R    0.23  
Grays_Athletic     15   11  -14      42.30     9.16   -35.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.94R    1.14  
Forest_Green       16   11  -19      33.73     8.24   -51.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.48R    5.78  
Ebbsfleet_United   16    9  -19      30.10     7.71   -49.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.81R   12.25  
Hayes_&_Yeading    15    8  -14      33.87     8.89   -47.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.78R    6.36  
Chester            15  -13   -8      17.70     9.10   -24.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.26R   73.66  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25