Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 14 October 2009 at 21:02:07 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 October 2009, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea          8   21  +12      84.50    10.40    52.42    25.14    45.06    62.29    76.92    94.19     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   19  +11      86.29     9.42    66.40    28.45    52.34    70.67    83.58    96.67     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        8   16   +7      74.82    10.82    44.05     5.20    14.31    27.12    42.75    76.20     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City         7   16   +7      77.50    11.68    42.91     9.82    22.47    37.22    52.44    80.45     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          7   15  +14      82.92    11.11    76.81    22.26    41.84    58.03    71.05    90.27     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        8   15  +10      76.26    10.71    54.79     7.54    19.00    32.88    49.15    81.38     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      7   13   +4      64.09    12.81    17.24     1.37     3.95     8.57    15.74    39.83     0.20R    0.01  
Sunderland       8   13   +3      57.12    11.50     2.72     0.13     0.67     1.98     4.82    19.04     0.74R    0.07  
Burnley          8   12   -9      45.36    11.04   -25.46     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.38     2.90     7.35R    1.07  
Everton          7   10   -2      40.68    11.76   -34.49     0.01     0.05     0.20     0.51     2.56    16.81R    3.10  
Stoke            8    9   -4      45.51    11.42   -11.90     0.02     0.07     0.22     0.63     3.58     6.91R    0.87  
Wigan            8    9   -7      41.54    10.69   -26.10     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.17     1.43    11.79R    1.70  
Bolton           7    8   -1      45.24    12.21   -18.17     0.02     0.10     0.34     0.88     4.35     9.22R    1.33  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      39.44    11.35   -15.50     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.18     1.35    17.88R    3.42  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.46    11.89   -25.57     0.01     0.03     0.10     0.29     2.07    19.42R    3.62  
Blackburn        7    7   -7      38.58    11.18   -32.75     0.00     0.03     0.08     0.22     1.24    20.61R    4.31  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -7      27.92     9.11   -54.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    59.58R   20.43  
Hull             8    7  -12      32.38     9.92   -50.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12    40.55R   12.73  
West_Ham         7    5   -3      42.63    11.66   -15.13     0.01     0.03     0.09     0.28     2.32    11.83R    2.09  
Portsmouth       8    3   -9      22.91     8.84   -47.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    77.09R   45.25  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Barnsley vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        11   24  +13     102.98    10.35    63.06    65.56    84.97    98.74    90.34P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        11   21  +10      87.18    11.95    41.38    10.10    31.70    81.90    46.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    11   20   +6      79.07    12.78    25.18     4.22    13.54    59.41    24.06P    0.13R    0.00  
Cardiff          11   19  +12      89.19    11.88    52.68    13.82    40.64    85.87    54.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          11   19   +6      72.41    12.95    14.98     1.58     5.85    39.10    13.17P    0.55R    0.05  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +4      69.51    12.87    11.41     0.80     3.61    31.03     9.46P    1.04R    0.10  
Leicester        11   17   +2      68.47    12.36     8.42     0.54     2.66    26.25     8.45P    0.89R    0.08  
Bristol_City     11   17   +1      71.26    12.76    11.65     0.93     4.16    34.31    12.22P    0.71R    0.09  
Blackpool        11   16   +1      69.82    12.96    10.43     0.65     3.50    31.78     9.78P    1.05R    0.12  
Nottm_Forest     11   16   +1      60.10    12.00    -3.88     0.08     0.45     9.94     2.40P    3.66R    0.42  
Coventry         11   16   +0      62.55    12.89    -3.38     0.24     1.21    14.69     3.66P    3.81R    0.58  
Crystal_Palace   10   15   +0      61.87    13.21    -2.79     0.20     1.09    14.37     4.14P    3.95R    0.53  
QPR              10   14   +3      71.23    13.65    15.88     1.06     5.05    36.54    13.32P    1.03R    0.12  
Swansea          11   14   -2      53.49    12.04   -10.42     0.02     0.19     3.75     1.09P   11.59R    2.30  
Watford          11   14   -3      53.76    12.51   -20.57     0.02     0.18     4.55     0.82P   13.31R    3.04  
Sheff_Wed        11   13   +1      62.43    12.42     3.29     0.09     0.76    14.33     3.51P    3.10R    0.44  
Derby            11   13   -4      50.78    12.11   -23.08     0.01     0.09     2.64     0.55P   17.74R    4.04  
Doncaster        11   11   -2      55.48    12.32    -5.43     0.04     0.20     5.26     1.44P    9.22R    1.82  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -7      50.47    12.35   -24.54     0.02     0.10     2.42     0.43P   19.63R    5.38  
Barnsley         11   11   -8      42.67    11.40   -39.66     0.00     0.01     0.45     0.08P   42.13R   14.57  
Reading          11   10   -6      46.45    12.16   -22.61     0.00     0.03     1.36     0.29P   29.01R    8.91  
Plymouth         11    8   -9      42.03    11.57   -32.64     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.07P   43.42R   15.89  
Peterborough     11    7   -7      41.96    12.16   -31.59     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.10P   43.71R   17.62  
Ipswich          11    5  -12      40.08    12.16   -37.78     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.06P   50.30R   23.90  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 13 October 2009, Brighton vs Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     11   27  +13      98.55    11.29    48.23    43.40    67.61    96.62    77.83P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         12   25  +10      89.17    11.41    39.57    13.35    33.36    86.65    48.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester       12   24  +13      95.70    10.38    55.52    31.17    60.64    96.08    73.43P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          12   23   +4      76.14    11.68    14.84     1.78     6.24    49.77    16.53P    0.19R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   11   22   +4      77.28    12.46    16.87     3.37     9.34    54.03    17.12P    0.29R    0.01  
Norwich          12   19   +6      74.23    11.62    22.07     1.24     4.38    45.04    11.92P    0.42R    0.01  
Swindon          12   19   -1      64.45    12.11    -3.35     0.22     0.97    17.15     3.63P    3.74R    0.13  
Huddersfield     12   18   +9      81.16    11.49    40.02     4.82    14.43    69.23    28.74P    0.07R    0.00  
Oldham           12   17   -1      60.23    11.63    -4.26     0.09     0.44     9.27     2.34P    6.29R    0.28  
Millwall         12   15   +4      64.92    11.35    10.34     0.23     0.85    16.98     5.65P    2.11R    0.05  
Southend         12   14   +1      62.41    11.97     3.86     0.18     0.73    13.66     3.42P    4.65R    0.27  
Gillingham       12   14   -1      58.25    11.84    -6.21     0.03     0.20     7.62     1.35P    9.55R    0.33  
Stockport        12   14   -3      52.86    11.26   -15.02     0.00     0.04     2.89     0.51P   18.01R    0.94  
Brentford        12   14   -3      56.80    11.33    -7.42     0.01     0.10     5.10     1.08P   10.55R    0.54  
Walsall          12   14   -4      53.85    11.32   -13.53     0.01     0.07     3.11     0.62P   16.40R    0.83  
Hartlepool       12   13   -2      57.32    11.66    -4.58     0.02     0.13     6.08     1.35P   10.21R    0.58  
Brighton         12   13   -6      48.40    11.35   -27.32     0.01     0.03     1.22     0.18P   31.96R    3.41  
Exeter           12   13   -6      49.69    11.05   -21.92     0.00     0.02     1.25     0.22P   27.10R    1.98  
Yeovil           12   12   -1      53.15    11.48    -9.24     0.01     0.07     3.10     0.66P   17.36R    1.03  
Leyton_Orient    12   12   -8      48.34    11.44   -26.98     0.00     0.02     1.27     0.18P   32.64R    3.45  
Carlisle         12   11   -4      44.93    11.15   -25.19     0.00     0.01     0.67     0.13P   42.75R    5.03  
Tranmere         12    7  -18      27.12     9.10   -75.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    93.87R   66.32  
Wycombe          12    6   -9      38.04    10.46   -32.15     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   67.20R   14.55  
Southampton      12    5   +3      62.28    11.67    21.54     0.06     0.32    13.13     4.22P    4.64R    0.27  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 October 2009, Notts_County vs Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          12   25   +8      84.60    11.98    27.99    12.60    38.07    75.29    48.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            12   24  +10      87.23    11.57    38.72    16.15    48.05    82.81    56.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham            12   24   +8      82.46    11.38    27.19     8.49    30.52    70.68    40.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             12   23   +9      82.81    11.82    31.26     9.79    33.03    71.54    42.70P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         12   21  +17      93.70    10.55    68.56    38.09    71.66    94.25    79.44P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            12   21   +9      75.10    12.33    20.88     3.43    15.15    47.55    23.22P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnet               12   21   +6      80.66    11.53    26.63     5.36    25.27    65.68    36.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           12   21   +5      76.48    11.74    19.58     3.45    16.03    51.18    24.19P    0.03R    0.00  
Chesterfield         12   20   +0      69.51    11.68     4.06     0.75     5.43    28.07    10.10P    0.09R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        12   18   +2      71.01    11.72    12.19     0.93     6.89    33.49    13.22P    0.10R    0.00  
Bradford             12   17   -1      66.30    11.87     2.90     0.42     3.68    20.68     7.08P    0.41R    0.01  
Bury                 12   17   -3      50.74    11.13   -25.57     0.01     0.18     2.02     0.55P    5.45R    0.19  
Accrington_Stanley   12   16   -1      57.10    11.77   -13.29     0.07     0.69     6.28     1.73P    2.39R    0.07  
Port_Vale            12   15   +1      62.41    11.95     2.93     0.22     1.93    13.43     5.11P    0.67R    0.03  
Crewe                12   15   -1      57.43    11.53   -11.67     0.05     0.61     6.29     1.68P    1.66R    0.04  
Lincoln_City         12   15   -7      50.64    11.42   -23.17     0.01     0.13     1.98     0.46P    7.07R    0.23  
Cheltenham           12   14   -6      52.55    11.33   -21.91     0.02     0.19     2.54     0.59P    4.76R    0.15  
Macclesfield         12   13   -7      48.74    11.25   -26.61     0.00     0.08     1.36     0.36P    9.49R    0.56  
Northampton          12   12   -4      61.96    11.94     0.61     0.08     1.41    12.18     3.62P    1.20R    0.09  
Hereford             12   12   -4      54.18    11.56   -12.93     0.02     0.33     3.71     1.08P    3.46R    0.19  
Morecambe            12   11   -7      57.16    11.74    -9.20     0.03     0.48     5.80     1.50P    2.41R    0.11  
Grimsby              12   10  -12      34.67     9.73   -56.73     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.01P   57.08R    5.88  
Torquay              12    9   -6      52.40    12.08   -12.17     0.01     0.18     3.14     0.84P    5.35R    0.32  
Darlington           12    2  -16      16.15     7.10   -70.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.35R   92.12  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 October 2009, Altrincham vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         16   39  +24     105.47     8.41    68.24    79.25    99.28    85.96P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          15   30  +14      88.34     9.85    38.03     6.96    75.49    28.26P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          15   30  +11      87.51     9.68    34.86     5.20    72.79    23.90P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          16   29   +8      76.67     9.81    18.07     0.48    30.34     5.21P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              15   28   +6      83.77     9.89    27.53     2.79    58.83    14.25P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      15   26  +13      85.29     9.55    42.94     3.58    66.83    20.35P    0.00     0.00  
York               15   26   +8      79.56     9.74    25.82     1.07    41.67    10.11P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      16   24  +14      74.95     9.62    31.03     0.45    26.11     6.47P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      16   24   +5      68.55     9.73    10.35     0.11     9.33     2.01P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham         16   24   +3      67.09     9.38     6.63     0.06     6.10     1.23P    0.02R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   16   23   +5      64.10     9.58     4.14     0.02     3.91     0.71P    0.06R    0.00  
Tamworth           16   22   +1      64.01     9.49     1.67     0.01     3.62     0.55P    0.06R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       16   22   -7      56.87     9.40   -15.76     0.00     0.61     0.07P    0.45R    0.00  
Histon             16   21   -2      60.17     9.57    -6.14     0.00     1.72     0.22P    0.17R    0.00  
Salisbury          16   17   +2      56.80     9.53    -0.40     0.00     0.76     0.15P    0.56R    0.01  
Barrow             16   17  -11      50.53     9.37   -23.53     0.00     0.10     0.01P    3.21R    0.11  
Eastbourne_Boro    16   16  -11      43.34     8.63   -33.10     0.00     0.02     0.00P   11.27R    0.40  
Wrexham            13   14   +0      58.77    11.09     0.27     0.01     2.40     0.53P    0.79R    0.02  
Gateshead          15   12   -9      49.09     9.88   -20.42     0.00     0.09     0.01P    5.49R    0.26  
Grays_Athletic     15   11  -14      41.78     9.05   -36.08     0.00     0.01     0.00    16.91R    1.14  
Forest_Green       16   11  -19      33.45     8.14   -51.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.70R    6.07  
Ebbsfleet_United   16    9  -19      30.05     7.69   -49.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.07R   12.23  
Hayes_&_Yeading    15    8  -14      34.25     9.02   -47.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.19R    5.69  
Chester            15  -13   -8      17.68     9.14   -24.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.06R   74.06  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25