Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 13 October 2009 at 21:02:08 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 October 2009, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea          8   21  +12      84.11    10.39    51.79    23.95    43.15    60.43    75.62    93.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   19  +11      86.40     9.43    66.27    29.03    52.68    70.88    83.54    96.69     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        8   16   +7      74.76    11.09    43.97     5.26    14.66    27.61    43.10    76.01     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         7   16   +7      77.48    11.94    42.90    10.14    23.27    38.14    53.05    80.25     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          7   15  +14      83.08    10.99    76.91    22.51    42.06    58.35    71.65    91.07     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        8   15  +10      76.28    10.67    54.57     7.53    19.03    32.89    49.40    81.88     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      7   13   +4      64.03    12.75    17.09     1.36     3.99     8.40    15.45    39.85     0.31R    0.01  
Sunderland       8   13   +3      57.49    11.47     3.65     0.18     0.89     2.33     5.18    19.72     0.54R    0.04  
Burnley          8   12   -9      45.42    11.11   -25.29     0.00     0.04     0.13     0.40     3.20     7.40R    1.11  
Everton          7   10   -2      40.55    11.63   -34.90     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.38     2.27    17.19R    3.38  
Stoke            8    9   -4      44.66    11.41   -13.32     0.01     0.06     0.15     0.49     3.05     8.58R    1.49  
Wigan            8    9   -7      41.52    10.74   -26.11     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.17     1.60    12.13R    1.80  
Bolton           7    8   -1      44.69    12.10   -19.11     0.02     0.09     0.27     0.74     3.95     9.81R    1.41  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      38.96    11.20   -16.20     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.14     1.03    19.22R    3.53  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.17    11.62   -25.86     0.01     0.02     0.08     0.22     1.59    20.08R    3.89  
Blackburn        7    7   -7      39.50    11.31   -31.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.14     1.23    19.27R    4.03  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -7      28.39     9.35   -52.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    57.78R   21.14  
Hull             8    7  -12      32.50     9.83   -50.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14    40.64R   12.16  
West_Ham         7    5   -3      42.79    11.57   -14.85     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.32     2.40    11.31R    2.27  
Portsmouth       8    3   -9      23.36     9.00   -47.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    75.72R   43.75  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Barnsley vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        11   24  +13     103.24    10.35    63.64    66.27    85.23    98.58    90.31P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        11   21  +10      87.24    11.90    41.59    10.64    32.29    81.81    46.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    11   20   +6      79.08    12.70    25.09     3.72    12.86    59.30    23.50P    0.14R    0.01  
Cardiff          11   19  +12      89.00    11.80    52.50    13.14    39.86    85.56    53.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston          11   19   +6      72.54    12.69    15.33     1.35     5.60    38.65    12.80P    0.35R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +4      69.21    12.62    10.99     0.75     3.09    29.16     8.25P    0.90R    0.12  
Leicester        11   17   +2      68.70    12.50     8.73     0.54     2.77    26.97     8.86P    0.81R    0.06  
Bristol_City     11   17   +1      72.15    12.77    12.77     0.92     4.58    37.07    13.53P    0.52R    0.04  
Blackpool        11   16   +1      70.17    12.97    11.07     0.74     3.86    31.92    10.31P    0.90R    0.12  
Nottm_Forest     11   16   +1      59.81    11.95    -4.20     0.09     0.51     9.23     2.46P    3.74R    0.43  
Coventry         11   16   +0      62.86    12.84    -2.88     0.30     1.30    14.80     3.73P    3.34R    0.52  
Crystal_Palace   10   15   +0      61.59    13.32    -3.21     0.21     1.18    13.98     4.06P    4.00R    0.54  
QPR              10   14   +3      71.21    13.89    15.99     1.11     5.32    36.63    13.61P    0.96R    0.13  
Swansea          11   14   -2      53.85    12.06   -10.07     0.03     0.16     3.74     1.10P   11.06R    2.11  
Watford          11   14   -3      53.65    12.69   -21.25     0.02     0.17     4.47     0.85P   13.93R    3.24  
Sheff_Wed        11   13   +1      62.63    12.52     3.55     0.10     0.82    14.88     3.87P    2.93R    0.38  
Derby            11   13   -4      50.89    12.00   -23.13     0.01     0.08     2.51     0.47P   17.19R    3.94  
Doncaster        11   11   -2      55.34    12.26    -5.65     0.04     0.19     5.18     1.34P    8.94R    1.71  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -7      50.63    12.53   -24.23     0.01     0.06     2.71     0.47P   19.64R    5.19  
Barnsley         11   11   -8      42.27    11.18   -40.13     0.00     0.01     0.41     0.07P   42.44R   14.66  
Reading          11   10   -6      46.43    11.98   -22.66     0.00     0.04     1.25     0.29P   28.49R    8.27  
Plymouth         11    8   -9      41.60    11.57   -33.31     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.08P   44.54R   16.58  
Peterborough     11    7   -7      41.63    12.06   -32.01     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.09P   44.35R   18.01  
Ipswich          11    5  -12      39.72    12.11   -38.52     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P   50.80R   23.91  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 12 October 2009, Tranmere vs Stockport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     11   27  +13      99.44    11.38    49.94    45.63    69.64    96.64    79.34P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         12   25  +10      89.18    11.43    39.59    12.31    31.88    86.08    47.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Colchester       12   24  +13      96.70    10.21    57.44    32.01    63.51    96.87    75.65P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          12   23   +4      76.31    11.75    15.03     1.43     5.48    49.71    16.18P    0.29R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   11   22   +4      76.23    12.38    15.01     2.47     7.53    49.48    15.02P    0.32R    0.00  
Norwich          12   19   +6      75.22    11.75    24.27     1.32     5.06    47.74    13.04P    0.33R    0.01  
Swindon          12   19   -1      65.13    12.16    -2.07     0.26     1.12    18.16     4.04P    2.89R    0.09  
Huddersfield     12   18   +9      80.44    11.67    38.43     3.98    12.48    65.83    26.21P    0.10R    0.00  
Oldham           12   17   -1      59.75    11.90    -5.03     0.07     0.33     8.75     2.12P    6.57R    0.26  
Millwall         12   15   +4      64.84    11.30    10.22     0.12     0.69    15.99     5.13P    2.06R    0.03  
Gillingham       11   14   +1      64.36    12.71     4.60     0.18     1.02    18.12     4.16P    4.24R    0.12  
Southend         12   14   +1      61.53    11.96     2.10     0.10     0.55    11.72     2.79P    5.04R    0.23  
Stockport        12   14   -3      51.82    11.18   -16.68     0.00     0.03     2.25     0.41P   18.82R    1.12  
Brentford        12   14   -3      55.94    11.35    -8.89     0.02     0.07     4.14     0.78P   10.71R    0.59  
Walsall          12   14   -4      54.46    11.10   -12.55     0.01     0.04     2.95     0.59P   13.28R    0.57  
Hartlepool       12   13   -2      57.15    11.83    -4.77     0.02     0.13     5.74     1.28P   10.01R    0.65  
Exeter           12   13   -6      50.87    11.19   -19.87     0.00     0.01     1.63     0.24P   22.43R    1.32  
Yeovil           12   12   -1      52.86    11.79    -9.80     0.01     0.07     3.26     0.80P   17.40R    1.12  
Leyton_Orient    12   12   -8      48.47    11.46   -26.97     0.01     0.03     1.34     0.27P   30.09R    3.17  
Carlisle         12   11   -4      44.19    10.81   -26.19     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.10P   43.33R    5.20  
Brighton         11   10   -8      42.76    11.63   -38.64     0.00     0.02     0.49     0.09P   49.96R    9.33  
Tranmere         12    7  -18      27.41     9.06   -74.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.97R   62.41  
Wycombe          12    6   -9      38.10    10.52   -32.02     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   65.00R   13.58  
Southampton      12    5   +3      62.37    11.56    21.70     0.05     0.28    12.50     3.98P    4.15R    0.19  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 October 2009, Notts_County vs Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          12   25   +8      84.76    12.00    28.29    12.91    39.06    75.86    49.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            12   24  +10      87.13    11.42    38.54    15.99    47.73    83.07    56.97P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            12   24   +8      82.12    11.62    26.48     8.40    29.79    69.87    39.88P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             12   23   +9      83.12    11.58    31.69    10.01    33.45    72.74    43.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         12   21  +17      93.84    10.39    68.66    38.05    72.70    94.73    80.26P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            12   21   +9      75.55    12.03    21.63     3.22    15.42    48.96    23.83P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnet               12   21   +6      80.09    11.74    25.76     5.48    24.12    63.56    34.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           12   21   +5      76.32    11.65    19.37     3.27    15.48    51.00    23.64P    0.05R    0.00  
Chesterfield         12   20   +0      69.26    11.83     3.64     0.66     5.43    27.50     9.85P    0.16R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        12   18   +2      70.70    11.86    11.83     0.97     6.97    32.86    13.14P    0.09R    0.00  
Bradford             12   17   -1      66.03    11.87     2.39     0.46     3.46    19.96     6.78P    0.42R    0.02  
Bury                 12   17   -3      51.20    11.29   -24.68     0.01     0.20     2.27     0.56P    5.41R    0.23  
Accrington_Stanley   12   16   -1      57.26    11.66   -12.86     0.06     0.64     6.13     1.65P    2.25R    0.07  
Port_Vale            12   15   +1      62.77    11.91     3.53     0.18     1.90    14.07     5.18P    0.65R    0.02  
Crewe                12   15   -1      57.50    11.69   -11.58     0.08     0.75     6.76     1.93P    1.70R    0.07  
Lincoln_City         12   15   -7      50.93    11.22   -22.82     0.01     0.10     1.88     0.43P    6.19R    0.29  
Cheltenham           12   14   -6      52.57    11.33   -21.89     0.01     0.24     2.79     0.71P    4.36R    0.15  
Macclesfield         12   13   -7      48.46    11.41   -27.12     0.00     0.09     1.31     0.31P   10.42R    0.61  
Northampton          12   12   -4      62.01    11.93     0.68     0.13     1.48    12.37     3.72P    1.13R    0.07  
Hereford             12   12   -4      54.10    11.55   -13.15     0.04     0.33     3.84     1.05P    3.47R    0.20  
Morecambe            12   11   -7      56.44    12.08   -10.43     0.03     0.48     5.54     1.49P    3.32R    0.26  
Grimsby              12   10  -12      34.61     9.82   -56.86     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   57.20R    6.57  
Torquay              12    9   -6      52.30    11.77   -12.32     0.00     0.15     2.90     0.79P    5.01R    0.35  
Darlington           12    2  -16      16.81     7.16   -68.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.14R   91.08  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 October 2009, Altrincham vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         16   39  +24     105.76     8.27    69.02    79.57    99.39    86.14P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          15   30  +14      88.43     9.75    38.25     6.52    75.82    28.00P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          15   30  +11      87.39     9.78    34.62     5.20    72.47    23.27P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          16   29   +8      76.79     9.80    18.22     0.47    30.81     5.08P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              15   28   +6      83.56    10.05    27.18     2.60    57.13    14.47P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      15   26  +13      85.65     9.43    43.55     4.00    67.79    20.93P    0.00     0.00  
York               15   26   +8      79.52     9.82    25.75     1.05    41.91    10.17P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      16   24  +14      75.05     9.70    31.07     0.44    26.33     6.60P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      16   24   +5      68.44     9.63    10.12     0.08     8.68     1.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         16   24   +3      67.52     9.58     7.16     0.04     7.24     1.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   16   23   +5      63.81     9.58     3.58     0.01     3.63     0.63P    0.05R    0.00  
Tamworth           16   22   +1      63.87     9.61     1.31     0.02     3.67     0.64P    0.06R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       16   22   -7      56.83     9.42   -15.88     0.00     0.62     0.06P    0.49R    0.00  
Histon             16   21   -2      60.28     9.55    -6.03     0.00     1.61     0.21P    0.21R    0.00  
Salisbury          16   17   +2      56.61     9.51    -0.76     0.00     0.74     0.13P    0.52R    0.00  
Barrow             16   17  -11      50.27     9.33   -23.88     0.00     0.08     0.01P    3.40R    0.10  
Eastbourne_Boro    16   16  -11      43.56     8.73   -32.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.14R    0.46  
Wrexham            13   14   +0      58.32    11.07    -0.44     0.00     1.98     0.47P    1.21R    0.03  
Gateshead          15   12   -9      48.68     9.76   -21.20     0.00     0.10     0.00P    5.72R    0.28  
Grays_Athletic     15   11  -14      42.26     9.19   -35.18     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.47R    1.12  
Forest_Green       16   11  -19      33.34     8.10   -52.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.71R    5.82  
Ebbsfleet_United   16    9  -19      30.17     7.71   -49.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.63R   12.02  
Hayes_&_Yeading    15    8  -14      34.55     8.97   -46.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.68R    5.05  
Chester            15  -13   -8      17.53     9.07   -25.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.68R   75.12  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25