Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 12 October 2009 at 21:02:06 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 October 2009, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea          8   21  +12      84.80    10.29    53.31    25.73    45.48    62.91    77.82    94.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   19  +11      86.01     9.53    64.78    27.58    51.28    69.94    82.96    96.31     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        8   16   +7      74.45    10.98    42.96     4.89    13.76    26.29    42.15    75.58     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City         7   16   +7      77.27    11.94    42.43     9.81    22.45    37.09    52.27    80.04     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          7   15  +14      83.32    11.01    77.80    23.02    43.68    60.08    72.83    91.32     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        8   15  +10      76.07    10.77    53.82     7.42    18.58    32.42    48.41    81.09     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      7   13   +4      64.09    12.64    17.22     1.33     3.83     8.17    15.49    40.25     0.28R    0.02  
Sunderland       8   13   +3      57.34    11.51     3.01     0.16     0.68     2.08     5.04    19.90     0.72R    0.05  
Burnley          8   12   -9      44.58    11.11   -26.73     0.02     0.04     0.14     0.40     2.63     8.87R    1.29  
Everton          7   10   -2      40.43    11.57   -35.51     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.33     2.14    17.54R    3.45  
Stoke            8    9   -4      44.69    11.25   -13.44     0.00     0.03     0.15     0.47     3.15     8.17R    1.26  
Wigan            8    9   -7      42.29    10.72   -24.75     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.17     1.71    10.88R    1.57  
Bolton           7    8   -1      45.28    12.20   -17.73     0.03     0.08     0.30     0.80     4.25     9.60R    1.50  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      38.89    11.32   -16.29     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.14     1.27    19.52R    3.73  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.31    11.56   -25.09     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.22     1.55    19.64R    3.82  
Blackburn        7    7   -7      39.23    11.12   -31.39     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.15     1.17    19.08R    4.08  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -7      28.10     9.34   -52.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    58.89R   21.98  
Hull             8    7  -12      32.59     9.89   -50.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    40.33R   12.07  
West_Ham         7    5   -3      42.85    11.64   -15.03     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.33     2.58    11.36R    2.15  
Portsmouth       8    3   -9      23.52     9.06   -46.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    75.08R   43.02  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Barnsley vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        11   24  +13     102.71    10.51    62.77    64.00    83.73    98.66    89.56P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        11   21  +10      87.27    12.05    41.73    11.31    32.98    81.57    46.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    11   20   +6      78.69    12.63    24.38     3.75    12.49    58.24    22.66P    0.13R    0.00  
Cardiff          11   19  +12      89.16    11.81    52.68    14.02    40.69    85.83    54.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          11   19   +6      73.00    12.86    15.96     1.70     6.09    40.86    13.94P    0.48R    0.05  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +4      69.27    12.68    11.01     0.73     3.25    29.83     8.51P    0.97R    0.12  
Leicester        11   17   +2      68.75    12.42     8.77     0.56     2.59    27.39     8.65P    0.90R    0.08  
Bristol_City     11   17   +1      71.70    12.77    12.20     1.04     4.56    35.81    13.15P    0.60R    0.05  
Blackpool        11   16   +1      69.57    12.94    10.05     0.65     3.33    30.55     9.39P    1.03R    0.12  
Nottm_Forest     11   16   +1      59.96    11.96    -3.93     0.09     0.48     9.66     2.50P    3.63R    0.43  
Coventry         11   16   +0      62.17    12.81    -4.17     0.22     1.04    13.79     3.32P    3.99R    0.60  
Crystal_Palace   10   15   +0      61.22    13.16    -3.81     0.18     1.09    13.36     3.67P    4.40R    0.61  
QPR              10   14   +3      71.67    14.02    16.72     1.51     6.11    37.92    14.69P    1.07R    0.13  
Swansea          11   14   -2      54.10    12.04    -9.49     0.02     0.13     3.87     1.06P   10.69R    1.92  
Watford          11   14   -3      53.44    12.49   -21.39     0.06     0.24     4.34     0.91P   13.73R    3.14  
Sheff_Wed        11   13   +1      62.81    12.50     3.81     0.12     0.83    15.10     3.87P    3.07R    0.45  
Derby            11   13   -4      50.71    11.94   -23.45     0.01     0.08     2.48     0.51P   17.99R    4.23  
Doncaster        11   11   -2      55.22    12.34    -5.95     0.02     0.16     5.04     1.26P    9.77R    1.92  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -7      50.41    12.41   -24.59     0.01     0.05     2.59     0.46P   20.05R    5.38  
Barnsley         11   11   -8      43.64    11.36   -37.60     0.00     0.02     0.58     0.11P   38.38R   12.91  
Reading          11   10   -6      46.61    11.93   -22.21     0.00     0.01     1.19     0.25P   28.34R    8.05  
Plymouth         11    8   -9      41.21    11.58   -33.86     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.07P   46.52R   18.82  
Peterborough     11    7   -7      42.23    11.98   -30.79     0.00     0.02     0.57     0.10P   42.58R   16.40  
Ipswich          11    5  -12      39.62    12.05   -38.86     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.08P   51.68R   24.62  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 12 October 2009, Tranmere vs Stockport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     11   27  +13      98.85    11.38    49.00    44.90    69.18    96.45    78.72P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         12   25  +10      88.95    11.37    39.29    12.78    32.53    86.10    47.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Colchester       12   24  +13      95.86    10.33    55.86    31.34    61.39    96.25    73.71P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          12   23   +4      75.54    11.72    13.92     1.30     5.20    47.41    15.36P    0.24R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   11   22   +4      76.75    12.44    15.85     3.21     8.82    51.60    16.63P    0.31R    0.01  
Norwich          12   19   +6      74.99    11.81    23.78     1.48     5.36    46.96    13.25P    0.37R    0.01  
Swindon          12   19   -1      64.93    12.13    -2.49     0.27     1.18    17.69     4.23P    3.15R    0.11  
Huddersfield     12   18   +9      80.07    11.67    37.60     3.93    12.44    64.79    25.82P    0.11R    0.00  
Oldham           12   17   -1      60.54    12.04    -3.90     0.11     0.49    10.10     2.52P    6.02R    0.25  
Millwall         12   15   +4      64.66    11.28     9.94     0.19     0.81    15.62     5.25P    2.11R    0.04  
Gillingham       11   14   +1      64.18    12.61     4.24     0.19     1.06    17.80     3.94P    4.34R    0.11  
Southend         12   14   +1      62.07    12.04     3.12     0.14     0.66    13.14     3.50P    4.52R    0.19  
Stockport        12   14   -3      52.14    11.31   -16.18     0.01     0.04     2.44     0.47P   18.65R    1.24  
Brentford        12   14   -3      56.42    11.33    -8.07     0.03     0.12     4.65     1.03P   10.30R    0.61  
Walsall          12   14   -4      53.95    11.14   -13.26     0.00     0.03     2.90     0.60P   14.94R    0.64  
Hartlepool       12   13   -2      57.53    12.03    -4.15     0.02     0.15     6.57     1.52P   10.09R    0.61  
Exeter           12   13   -6      50.51    11.15   -20.53     0.00     0.01     1.60     0.23P   23.59R    1.66  
Yeovil           12   12   -1      52.81    11.61    -9.89     0.01     0.09     3.15     0.72P   17.48R    1.10  
Leyton_Orient    12   12   -8      48.24    11.64   -27.23     0.01     0.02     1.35     0.24P   31.67R    3.57  
Carlisle         12   11   -4      44.94    10.85   -24.94     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.09P   41.10R    4.36  
Brighton         11   10   -8      43.41    11.95   -37.15     0.00     0.01     0.69     0.10P   48.80R    8.88  
Tranmere         12    7  -18      27.61     9.20   -74.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    92.59R   62.00  
Wycombe          12    6   -9      38.13    10.66   -31.84     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   65.09R   14.29  
Southampton      12    5   +3      62.12    11.59    21.20     0.07     0.37    12.08     4.13P    4.53R    0.32  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 October 2009, Notts_County vs Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          12   25   +8      84.12    11.75    27.37    11.66    36.66    74.82    47.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            12   24  +10      87.16    11.53    38.63    16.54    47.66    82.60    56.78P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            12   24   +8      82.30    11.48    26.78     8.33    30.72    70.36    40.58P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             12   23   +9      82.74    11.71    31.00     9.58    32.94    71.78    42.81P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         12   21  +17      93.91    10.53    68.52    38.90    72.84    94.49    80.01P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            12   21   +9      75.44    12.06    21.50     3.29    15.61    48.92    24.10P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnet               12   21   +6      80.53    11.72    26.44     5.82    25.54    65.31    36.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           12   21   +5      76.67    11.44    19.78     3.12    15.70    52.28    24.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Chesterfield         12   20   +0      69.22    11.75     3.56     0.77     5.34    27.37     9.83P    0.15R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        12   18   +2      70.78    11.92    11.82     0.93     7.18    32.95    13.36P    0.09R    0.00  
Bradford             12   17   -1      66.17    11.77     2.54     0.39     3.39    20.48     6.88P    0.39R    0.01  
Bury                 12   17   -3      50.73    11.12   -25.43     0.00     0.20     1.96     0.51P    5.80R    0.21  
Accrington_Stanley   12   16   -1      57.28    11.74   -12.89     0.09     0.78     6.46     1.88P    2.34R    0.08  
Port_Vale            12   15   +1      62.28    12.00     2.67     0.24     1.86    13.40     4.98P    0.74R    0.01  
Crewe                12   15   -1      57.92    11.49   -10.70     0.07     0.72     6.82     1.87P    1.68R    0.04  
Lincoln_City         12   15   -7      51.05    11.26   -22.46     0.01     0.12     2.05     0.54P    6.31R    0.29  
Cheltenham           12   14   -6      52.39    11.31   -22.25     0.01     0.16     2.55     0.58P    4.78R    0.15  
Macclesfield         12   13   -7      49.04    11.39   -26.09     0.00     0.11     1.55     0.38P    9.29R    0.50  
Northampton          12   12   -4      61.79    11.82     0.25     0.15     1.40    11.99     3.64P    1.17R    0.05  
Hereford             12   12   -4      53.59    11.61   -14.01     0.06     0.32     3.43     1.00P    3.84R    0.23  
Morecambe            12   11   -7      56.74    11.83   -10.00     0.04     0.54     5.36     1.56P    3.28R    0.17  
Grimsby              12   10  -12      34.85     9.85   -56.11     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   56.67R    6.30  
Torquay              12    9   -6      52.55    11.82   -11.82     0.01     0.20     3.03     0.86P    5.23R    0.37  
Darlington           12    2  -16      16.59     7.10   -69.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.19R   91.58  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 October 2009, Altrincham vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         16   39  +24     105.77     8.32    69.03    80.19    99.38    86.68P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          15   30  +14      88.39     9.64    38.20     6.13    76.04    27.53P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          15   30  +11      87.48     9.69    34.66     5.11    72.83    23.10P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          16   29   +8      76.69     9.88    18.06     0.54    30.24     5.23P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              15   28   +6      83.93    10.00    27.79     2.77    58.64    14.59P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      15   26  +13      85.45     9.40    43.22     3.59    67.41    20.53P    0.00     0.00  
York               15   26   +8      79.32    10.05    25.40     1.05    41.08    10.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      16   24  +14      75.05     9.69    31.08     0.50    26.21     6.58P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      16   24   +5      68.40     9.54    10.05     0.06     8.36     1.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         16   24   +3      67.44     9.59     7.10     0.03     7.12     1.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   16   23   +5      64.03     9.61     4.03     0.01     3.90     0.78P    0.05R    0.00  
Tamworth           16   22   +1      63.81     9.43     1.28     0.01     3.34     0.55P    0.07R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       16   22   -7      56.50     9.38   -16.28     0.00     0.59     0.08P    0.47R    0.01  
Histon             16   21   -2      60.12     9.47    -6.16     0.00     1.60     0.21P    0.18R    0.00  
Salisbury          16   17   +2      56.71     9.42    -0.61     0.00     0.70     0.12P    0.50R    0.01  
Barrow             16   17  -11      50.27     9.45   -23.89     0.00     0.09     0.01P    3.46R    0.11  
Eastbourne_Boro    16   16  -11      43.33     8.69   -33.16     0.00     0.02     0.00P   11.22R    0.45  
Wrexham            13   14   +0      58.59    11.15     0.04     0.01     2.31     0.62P    0.97R    0.02  
Gateshead          15   12   -9      49.15     9.78   -20.37     0.00     0.13     0.02P    5.30R    0.21  
Grays_Athletic     15   11  -14      42.00     9.24   -35.64     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.37R    1.45  
Forest_Green       16   11  -19      33.67     8.13   -51.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.73R    5.60  
Ebbsfleet_United   16    9  -19      30.16     7.72   -49.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.72R   12.17  
Hayes_&_Yeading    15    8  -14      34.13     8.84   -47.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.63R    5.91  
Chester            15  -13   -8      17.71     9.16   -24.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.31R   74.05  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25