Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 11 October 2009 at 21:02:13 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 October 2009, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea          8   21  +12      84.65    10.25    52.76    25.55    45.09    62.48    77.21    94.55     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   19  +11      85.86     9.59    65.42    27.60    50.73    69.23    82.33    95.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        8   16   +7      75.32    10.93    45.19     5.67    15.85    29.10    45.04    77.53     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City         7   16   +7      77.02    11.99    41.63     9.51    21.99    36.18    51.33    79.18     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          7   15  +14      82.91    11.16    76.82    22.42    42.33    58.39    71.47    90.55     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        8   15  +10      76.21    10.83    54.48     7.66    19.13    33.21    48.98    81.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa      7   13   +4      64.29    12.60    17.47     1.42     3.95     8.36    15.52    40.37     0.28R    0.02  
Sunderland       8   13   +3      57.42    11.52     3.38     0.15     0.76     2.16     5.16    19.69     0.73R    0.07  
Burnley          8   12   -9      45.30    11.15   -25.67     0.01     0.04     0.15     0.43     3.09     7.68R    1.02  
Everton          7   10   -2      40.65    11.53   -34.49     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.34     2.21    16.87R    3.12  
Stoke            8    9   -4      44.50    11.36   -13.53     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.40     2.78     8.55R    1.50  
Wigan            8    9   -7      41.64    10.65   -26.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.14     1.61    11.81R    1.72  
Bolton           7    8   -1      45.65    11.99   -17.15     0.00     0.05     0.26     0.76     4.47     8.47R    1.31  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      39.52    11.41   -15.44     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.13     1.39    18.20R    3.70  
Fulham           7    7   -4      38.86    11.60   -26.36     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.22     1.62    20.57R    3.56  
Blackburn        7    7   -7      39.37    11.42   -31.46     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.23     1.48    19.43R    3.77  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -7      27.84     9.06   -53.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    59.47R   21.38  
Hull             8    7  -12      32.99    10.04   -49.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19    38.81R   10.75  
West_Ham         7    5   -3      42.06    11.64   -16.41     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.29     2.22    12.94R    2.50  
Portsmouth       8    3   -9      22.98     9.10   -47.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    76.17R   45.56  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Barnsley vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        11   24  +13     102.60    10.31    62.48    64.10    84.23    98.58    89.96P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        11   21  +10      86.98    12.08    41.22    10.89    31.96    81.27    45.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    11   20   +6      78.92    12.74    24.92     3.90    13.24    59.04    23.78P    0.12R    0.00  
Cardiff          11   19  +12      89.33    11.85    53.19    14.54    41.38    85.97    55.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston          11   19   +6      72.89    12.81    15.90     1.65     5.88    39.93    13.45P    0.38R    0.04  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +4      68.85    12.63    10.24     0.65     2.83    28.50     7.93P    0.98R    0.06  
Leicester        11   17   +2      68.65    12.47     8.56     0.54     2.71    27.07     8.54P    0.95R    0.07  
Bristol_City     11   17   +1      71.45    12.56    11.81     0.76     3.86    34.85    12.31P    0.58R    0.07  
Blackpool        11   16   +1      69.66    12.98    10.20     0.68     3.57    30.91     9.62P    1.06R    0.12  
Nottm_Forest     11   16   +1      60.12    11.96    -3.80     0.07     0.43     9.73     2.53P    3.63R    0.40  
Coventry         11   16   +0      62.33    12.93    -3.76     0.26     1.16    14.20     3.44P    3.90R    0.63  
Crystal_Palace   10   15   +0      61.31    12.93    -3.51     0.18     1.02    12.86     3.51P    4.13R    0.58  
QPR              10   14   +3      72.09    13.81    17.37     1.49     5.84    39.25    14.85P    0.88R    0.10  
Swansea          11   14   -2      54.06    12.13    -9.85     0.03     0.15     3.94     1.13P   10.87R    2.10  
Watford          11   14   -3      53.57    12.72   -21.29     0.03     0.22     4.63     0.94P   14.08R    3.23  
Sheff_Wed        11   13   +1      62.70    12.65     3.64     0.16     0.99    15.31     4.03P    2.93R    0.43  
Derby            11   13   -4      50.66    12.20   -23.37     0.01     0.10     2.59     0.52P   18.61R    4.35  
Doncaster        11   11   -2      55.92    12.36    -4.94     0.04     0.26     5.63     1.56P    8.91R    1.61  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -7      50.85    12.46   -23.78     0.03     0.14     2.80     0.52P   18.66R    4.98  
Barnsley         11   11   -8      42.58    11.17   -39.43     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.07P   41.50R   14.00  
Reading          11   10   -6      45.88    11.98   -23.57     0.00     0.02     1.11     0.27P   30.29R    9.28  
Plymouth         11    8   -9      41.88    11.66   -32.75     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.08P   43.23R   16.40  
Peterborough     11    7   -7      42.10    12.28   -31.30     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.11P   43.22R   17.34  
Ipswich          11    5  -12      39.94    12.44   -38.17     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.06P   51.07R   24.18  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 October 2009, Carlisle vs Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     11   27  +13      98.79    11.40    48.91    43.67    68.73    96.02    78.37P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         12   25  +10      89.40    11.53    40.09    13.74    33.61    86.33    49.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester       12   24  +13      96.28    10.35    56.75    32.03    62.02    96.35    74.60P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons          12   23   +4      76.38    11.58    15.14     1.52     5.63    50.16    16.46P    0.16R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   11   22   +4      75.73    12.53    14.24     2.85     7.66    47.82    14.50P    0.41R    0.02  
Norwich          12   19   +6      75.41    11.76    24.83     1.36     5.28    48.34    13.61P    0.32R    0.01  
Swindon          12   19   -1      65.68    12.04    -1.06     0.23     1.14    19.17     4.25P    2.59R    0.08  
Huddersfield     12   18   +9      80.17    11.58    37.86     3.97    12.32    64.97    25.78P    0.08R    0.00  
Oldham           12   17   -1      59.87    11.79    -4.81     0.07     0.34     8.61     2.13P    6.28R    0.39  
Millwall         12   15   +4      64.73    11.29    10.14     0.17     0.67    16.13     5.16P    1.96R    0.06  
Gillingham       11   14   +1      64.73    12.85     5.48     0.18     1.22    19.11     4.55P    4.11R    0.21  
Southend         12   14   +1      61.70    12.03     2.54     0.10     0.61    12.21     2.90P    4.82R    0.29  
Brentford        12   14   -3      56.33    11.33    -8.31     0.02     0.10     4.42     0.90P   10.16R    0.70  
Walsall          12   14   -4      54.45    11.33   -12.46     0.00     0.07     3.42     0.65P   13.39R    0.75  
Hartlepool       12   13   -2      57.32    11.91    -4.51     0.02     0.14     6.04     1.34P    9.82R    0.73  
Exeter           12   13   -6      51.14    11.17   -19.45     0.00     0.01     1.71     0.25P   21.18R    1.74  
Yeovil           12   12   -1      52.27    11.44   -10.60     0.00     0.06     2.56     0.53P   17.85R    1.40  
Leyton_Orient    12   12   -8      47.61    11.27   -28.25     0.00     0.02     1.05     0.20P   31.86R    4.16  
Carlisle         12   11   -4      44.62    11.00   -25.39     0.00     0.02     0.67     0.16P   41.33R    5.88  
Stockport        11   11   -4      49.45    11.74   -19.73     0.01     0.04     1.75     0.35P   26.16R    3.52  
Brighton         11   10   -8      42.40    11.56   -39.27     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.08P   51.43R   11.36  
Tranmere         11    7  -17      30.43    10.29   -71.75     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   86.40R   51.70  
Wycombe          12    6   -9      38.00    10.46   -32.12     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   65.30R   16.73  
Southampton      12    5   +3      62.28    11.72    21.72     0.05     0.33    12.55     4.13P    4.37R    0.28  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 October 2009, Notts_County vs Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          12   25   +8      84.40    12.04    27.72    12.53    37.86    74.94    48.28P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            12   24  +10      86.84    11.52    37.97    15.25    46.89    82.02    56.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham            12   24   +8      81.94    11.46    26.22     7.77    29.19    69.59    39.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             12   23   +9      82.76    11.77    31.01     9.66    32.83    71.55    42.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         12   21  +17      94.10    10.46    69.28    39.64    73.52    94.91    80.86P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            12   21   +9      75.56    12.03    21.64     3.52    15.51    48.39    23.62P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnet               12   21   +6      80.52    11.83    26.41     5.70    25.70    65.17    36.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           12   21   +5      76.78    11.60    20.04     3.41    16.30    52.47    24.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Chesterfield         12   20   +0      69.03    11.60     3.23     0.54     5.03    26.72     9.32P    0.11R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        12   18   +2      70.93    11.83    12.11     0.95     6.92    33.56    13.13P    0.08R    0.00  
Bradford             12   17   -1      66.90    11.72     3.99     0.48     3.86    21.88     7.58P    0.33R    0.01  
Bury                 12   17   -3      51.10    11.12   -24.71     0.01     0.14     2.08     0.53P    5.21R    0.23  
Accrington_Stanley   12   16   -1      56.92    11.74   -13.68     0.08     0.70     6.16     1.79P    2.32R    0.09  
Port_Vale            12   15   +1      62.36    12.18     2.89     0.16     1.96    14.04     5.35P    0.82R    0.03  
Crewe                12   15   -1      57.49    11.61   -11.48     0.08     0.68     6.57     1.77P    1.80R    0.08  
Lincoln_City         12   15   -7      50.69    11.29   -22.96     0.00     0.10     1.73     0.41P    6.65R    0.27  
Cheltenham           12   14   -6      52.49    11.32   -22.04     0.01     0.14     2.44     0.55P    4.83R    0.22  
Macclesfield         12   13   -7      48.48    11.35   -26.93     0.01     0.11     1.40     0.35P    9.83R    0.53  
Northampton          12   12   -4      62.05    11.87     0.68     0.11     1.49    12.45     3.78P    1.14R    0.05  
Hereford             12   12   -4      53.61    11.65   -13.93     0.04     0.33     3.44     1.01P    3.81R    0.21  
Morecambe            12   11   -7      57.08    11.84    -9.30     0.04     0.56     5.68     1.67P    2.98R    0.18  
Grimsby              12   10  -12      34.80     9.86   -56.58     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   56.56R    6.94  
Torquay              12    9   -6      52.24    11.77   -12.37     0.00     0.19     2.77     0.80P    5.40R    0.41  
Darlington           12    2  -16      16.81     7.30   -69.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.04R   90.75  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 October 2009, Altrincham vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         16   39  +24     105.68     8.32    68.90    79.56    99.36    86.30P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          15   30  +14      88.38     9.69    38.13     6.54    75.87    28.02P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          15   30  +11      87.36     9.77    34.52     5.25    72.25    22.95P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          16   29   +8      76.78     9.96    18.26     0.52    30.75     5.24P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              15   28   +6      83.91     9.94    27.71     2.63    58.98    14.56P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      15   26  +13      85.37     9.51    42.96     3.73    66.70    20.56P    0.00     0.00  
York               15   26   +8      79.63     9.92    25.89     1.15    41.84    10.47P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      16   24  +14      75.26     9.68    31.47     0.50    26.87     6.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster      16   24   +5      68.24     9.50     9.81     0.06     8.12     1.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         16   24   +3      67.35     9.52     6.98     0.04     6.95     1.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   16   23   +5      63.94     9.57     3.83     0.01     3.81     0.65P    0.05R    0.00  
Tamworth           16   22   +1      64.05     9.46     1.70     0.00     3.59     0.60P    0.06R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       16   22   -7      56.50     9.31   -16.27     0.00     0.54     0.08P    0.50R    0.01  
Histon             16   21   -2      59.96     9.53    -6.51     0.00     1.47     0.22P    0.21R    0.01  
Salisbury          16   17   +2      56.75     9.44    -0.50     0.00     0.71     0.15P    0.51R    0.01  
Barrow             16   17  -11      50.70     9.40   -23.17     0.00     0.09     0.01P    3.36R    0.10  
Eastbourne_Boro    16   16  -11      43.27     8.73   -33.10     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.73R    0.58  
Wrexham            13   14   +0      58.40    10.90    -0.29     0.01     1.97     0.45P    0.96R    0.02  
Gateshead          15   12   -9      48.51     9.72   -21.50     0.00     0.13     0.02P    5.77R    0.22  
Grays_Athletic     15   11  -14      42.18     9.36   -35.35     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.95R    1.37  
Forest_Green       16   11  -19      33.55     8.14   -51.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.26R    5.62  
Ebbsfleet_United   16    9  -19      30.03     7.72   -49.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.93R   12.82  
Hayes_&_Yeading    15    8  -14      34.35     9.01   -47.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.70R    5.88  
Chester            15  -13   -8      17.88     9.14   -24.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.99R   73.36  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25