Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 10 October 2009 at 21:02:11 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 October 2009, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea          8   21  +12      84.61    10.29    52.83    25.57    45.10    62.44    77.09    94.30     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   19  +11      86.19     9.48    65.55    28.33    52.28    70.29    83.20    96.38     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        8   16   +7      75.03    10.85    44.17     5.38    15.03    27.96    44.12    77.17     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City         7   16   +7      77.60    11.86    42.94    10.38    23.38    38.41    53.13    80.97     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal          7   15  +14      82.66    11.08    75.91    21.56    40.94    57.11    70.47    89.94     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        8   15  +10      75.97    10.75    53.50     7.17    18.17    31.97    47.93    80.47     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      7   13   +4      64.06    12.73    17.09     1.41     4.10     8.61    15.69    39.55     0.25R    0.02  
Sunderland       8   13   +3      57.88    11.41     4.36     0.17     0.73     2.24     5.33    20.57     0.57R    0.04  
Burnley          8   12   -9      45.20    11.13   -25.91     0.00     0.04     0.15     0.47     2.91     7.66R    1.22  
Everton          7   10   -2      40.45    11.68   -35.38     0.00     0.04     0.15     0.43     2.39    17.49R    3.52  
Stoke            8    9   -4      44.60    11.37   -13.38     0.00     0.04     0.13     0.43     3.04     8.45R    1.40  
Wigan            8    9   -7      41.45    10.84   -26.40     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.19     1.64    12.93R    2.13  
Bolton           7    8   -1      45.64    12.02   -17.16     0.01     0.08     0.25     0.70     4.19     8.53R    1.20  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      38.61    11.01   -16.73     0.00     0.02     0.04     0.12     0.95    19.32R    3.75  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.53    11.75   -24.67     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.32     1.94    19.00R    3.74  
Blackburn        7    7   -7      39.10    11.13   -31.78     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     1.19    19.44R    4.12  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -7      28.14     9.19   -52.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09    58.64R   21.13  
Hull             8    7  -12      32.63     9.86   -49.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    39.76R   11.59  
West_Ham         7    5   -3      42.52    11.46   -15.67     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.26     2.14    11.94R    2.33  
Portsmouth       8    3   -9      23.31     8.87   -46.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    76.01R   43.82  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Barnsley vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        11   24  +13     102.40    10.41    62.18    63.79    83.60    98.60    89.37P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        11   21  +10      87.03    11.93    41.22    10.58    31.67    81.36    45.49P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    11   20   +6      79.33    12.91    25.53     4.51    14.20    60.23    25.18P    0.13R    0.01  
Cardiff          11   19  +12      89.33    11.77    52.89    14.83    41.61    86.24    55.16P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          11   19   +6      72.48    12.94    15.12     1.50     5.88    39.20    13.35P    0.50R    0.04  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +4      69.59    12.60    11.60     0.79     3.30    30.49     9.00P    0.90R    0.11  
Leicester        11   17   +2      68.88    12.22     8.98     0.54     2.75    26.95     8.65P    0.63R    0.04  
Bristol_City     11   17   +1      71.38    12.55    11.70     0.81     3.86    34.45    11.83P    0.54R    0.06  
Blackpool        11   16   +1      69.93    12.91    10.74     0.78     3.68    31.26     9.94P    0.88R    0.10  
Nottm_Forest     11   16   +1      60.07    12.08    -3.89     0.08     0.49    10.00     2.70P    3.75R    0.44  
Coventry         11   16   +0      62.78    12.65    -3.06     0.18     0.97    14.42     3.32P    3.53R    0.50  
Crystal_Palace   10   15   +0      60.38    13.15    -4.90     0.12     0.87    12.23     3.32P    5.14R    0.74  
QPR              10   14   +3      71.41    13.74    16.21     1.23     5.45    37.08    13.68P    0.96R    0.12  
Swansea          11   14   -2      53.78    12.10   -10.16     0.03     0.17     4.07     1.11P   11.35R    2.29  
Watford          11   14   -3      53.83    12.52   -20.48     0.03     0.17     4.44     0.88P   13.03R    2.97  
Sheff_Wed        11   13   +1      62.80    12.51     3.96     0.13     0.89    15.38     3.98P    2.88R    0.38  
Derby            11   13   -4      50.82    11.98   -23.20     0.02     0.08     2.54     0.48P   17.66R    3.98  
Doncaster        11   11   -2      55.64    12.21    -5.26     0.04     0.21     5.43     1.53P    8.99R    1.66  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -7      50.60    12.41   -24.30     0.01     0.07     2.56     0.44P   19.72R    5.33  
Barnsley         11   11   -8      43.02    11.29   -38.92     0.00     0.01     0.43     0.08P   40.02R   13.40  
Reading          11   10   -6      45.93    12.09   -23.40     0.00     0.03     1.21     0.25P   30.81R    9.55  
Plymouth         11    8   -9      42.09    11.72   -32.42     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.08P   43.20R   16.24  
Peterborough     11    7   -7      41.76    12.10   -31.83     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.11P   44.34R   18.18  
Ipswich          11    5  -12      39.83    12.16   -38.32     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.06P   51.00R   23.87  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 October 2009, Carlisle vs Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     11   27  +13      99.75    11.13    50.22    47.35    71.38    97.28    80.67P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         12   25  +10      89.00    11.46    39.41    12.45    32.03    86.41    47.86P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester       12   24  +13      95.80    10.27    55.79    29.41    60.14    96.34    73.15P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          12   23   +4      76.39    11.72    15.15     1.53     5.93    50.75    17.14P    0.17R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   11   22   +4      76.92    12.29    16.26     3.04     8.79    52.48    16.44P    0.28R    0.01  
Norwich          12   19   +6      75.46    11.69    25.00     1.43     5.53    49.03    13.69P    0.27R    0.00  
Swindon          12   19   -1      64.52    12.19    -3.16     0.19     0.95    17.38     3.65P    3.41R    0.11  
Huddersfield     12   18   +9      80.30    11.68    38.11     4.05    12.41    66.04    25.93P    0.13R    0.01  
Oldham           12   17   -1      59.91    12.18    -4.78     0.08     0.36     9.62     2.34P    7.23R    0.50  
Millwall         12   15   +4      64.30    11.40     9.61     0.13     0.69    15.79     5.14P    2.35R    0.06  
Southend         12   14   +1      61.57    12.22     2.37     0.13     0.65    12.43     3.14P    5.56R    0.40  
Brentford        12   14   -3      55.78    11.32    -8.90     0.01     0.08     4.09     0.89P   11.58R    0.95  
Walsall          12   14   -4      53.68    10.97   -13.50     0.01     0.04     2.69     0.48P   14.88R    0.92  
Hartlepool       12   13   -2      56.96    11.84    -5.11     0.02     0.11     5.81     1.37P   10.77R    0.90  
Exeter           12   13   -6      50.70    11.10   -20.09     0.00     0.01     1.66     0.23P   22.79R    1.88  
Gillingham       11   12   +0      60.75    12.65     0.75     0.08     0.47    12.23     2.55P    7.48R    0.42  
Yeovil           12   12   -1      52.44    11.74   -10.25     0.02     0.07     2.99     0.67P   18.77R    1.75  
Leyton_Orient    12   12   -8      48.39    11.31   -27.00     0.00     0.01     1.22     0.15P   30.44R    4.04  
Carlisle         12   11   -4      44.95    11.13   -24.67     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.16P   41.16R    6.09  
Stockport        11   11   -4      50.64    11.87   -17.69     0.00     0.04     2.26     0.40P   24.14R    3.27  
Brighton         11   10   -8      43.08    11.70   -37.69     0.00     0.01     0.59     0.09P   49.75R   11.20  
Wycombe          12    7   -8      40.57    10.67   -27.93     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   56.69R   11.98  
Tranmere         11    7  -17      30.20    10.49   -72.77     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   86.93R   55.08  
Southampton      12    5   +3      61.76    11.83    20.87     0.04     0.29    11.94     3.82P    5.20R    0.43  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 October 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          12   25   +8      84.09    11.73    27.36     8.94    34.78    74.24    46.39P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            12   24  +10      86.85    11.48    38.13    11.54    45.47    82.07    54.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham            12   24   +8      82.48    11.46    27.22     6.29    29.44    70.88    40.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             12   23   +9      82.93    11.82    31.28     7.70    32.06    72.17    42.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Aldershot            12   21   +9      74.98    11.95    20.55     2.21    13.42    47.20    21.75P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet               12   21   +6      80.61    11.70    26.64     4.21    24.58    65.52    35.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           12   21   +5      76.54    11.57    19.55     2.38    15.06    51.53    23.68P    0.02R    0.00  
Notts_County         11   20  +17      98.90    10.18    79.22    55.05    84.80    97.92    89.34P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         12   20   +0      69.44    11.58     3.76     0.43     4.92    27.61     9.30P    0.11R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        12   18   +2      70.68    11.66    11.69     0.55     6.06    32.61    12.28P    0.10R    0.00  
Bradford             12   17   -1      66.39    11.73     2.93     0.30     3.38    20.43     6.80P    0.32R    0.01  
Bury                 12   17   -3      50.67    11.04   -26.02     0.01     0.13     1.82     0.46P    5.14R    0.18  
Accrington_Stanley   12   16   -1      57.33    11.58   -13.07     0.06     0.67     6.13     1.77P    2.11R    0.06  
Port_Vale            12   15   +1      62.29    11.92     2.78     0.13     1.89    13.25     4.86P    0.61R    0.01  
Crewe                12   15   -1      57.43    11.64   -12.07     0.05     0.67     6.45     1.77P    1.80R    0.03  
Lincoln_City         12   15   -7      51.28    11.22   -22.37     0.00     0.08     2.06     0.46P    5.50R    0.17  
Cheltenham           12   14   -6      52.74    11.28   -21.74     0.00     0.17     2.73     0.63P    3.92R    0.18  
Macclesfield         12   13   -7      48.86    11.28   -26.48     0.00     0.10     1.32     0.30P    8.75R    0.47  
Northampton          12   12   -4      62.61    11.82     1.96     0.11     1.53    13.22     4.04P    0.85R    0.04  
Hereford             12   12   -4      54.15    11.58   -13.23     0.01     0.30     3.76     1.04P    3.28R    0.24  
Morecambe            12   11   -7      57.20    11.70    -9.19     0.03     0.47     5.70     1.44P    2.43R    0.17  
Grimsby              12   10  -12      34.32     9.52   -57.99     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   56.21R    6.72  
Torquay              11    8   -6      47.81    12.09   -21.88     0.00     0.04     1.38     0.29P   10.80R    1.03  
Darlington           12    2  -16      16.68     7.08   -69.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.01R   90.69  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 October 2009, Altrincham vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         16   39  +24     105.62     8.31    68.48    79.58    99.30    86.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          15   30  +14      88.55     9.61    38.38     6.51    76.30    28.05P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          15   30  +11      87.65     9.69    35.00     5.32    73.19    23.55P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          16   29   +8      76.81     9.83    18.36     0.51    30.59     5.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton              15   28   +6      83.85     9.91    27.59     2.73    58.26    14.48P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      15   26  +13      85.55     9.37    43.40     3.60    67.30    20.93P    0.00     0.00  
York               15   26   +8      79.41     9.94    25.54     1.13    41.40    10.02P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      16   24  +14      74.99     9.64    31.01     0.49    25.70     6.45P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      16   24   +5      68.56     9.61    10.35     0.07     8.73     1.63P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         16   24   +3      67.11     9.53     6.62     0.03     6.50     1.23P    0.02R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   16   23   +5      63.79     9.57     3.60     0.01     3.58     0.58P    0.05R    0.00  
Tamworth           16   22   +1      63.64     9.54     0.93     0.02     3.47     0.56P    0.08R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       16   22   -7      56.72     9.43   -16.01     0.00     0.67     0.08P    0.47R    0.01  
Histon             16   21   -2      60.42     9.56    -5.72     0.00     1.75     0.24P    0.16R    0.00  
Salisbury          16   17   +2      57.00     9.42    -0.09     0.00     0.76     0.12P    0.42R    0.00  
Barrow             16   17  -11      50.23     9.41   -23.97     0.00     0.09     0.01P    3.45R    0.13  
Eastbourne_Boro    16   16  -11      43.50     8.72   -32.88     0.00     0.01     0.00P   10.96R    0.42  
Wrexham            13   14   +0      58.64    11.18    -0.02     0.01     2.33     0.51P    1.09R    0.03  
Gateshead          15   12   -9      48.54     9.66   -21.34     0.00     0.07     0.01P    5.75R    0.25  
Grays_Athletic     15   11  -14      42.19     9.20   -35.30     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.54R    1.20  
Forest_Green       16   11  -19      33.43     8.07   -52.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.86R    5.80  
Ebbsfleet_United   16    9  -19      30.36     7.82   -49.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.76R   11.58  
Hayes_&_Yeading    15    8  -14      34.12     8.91   -47.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.77R    5.80  
Chester            15  -13   -8      17.53     9.14   -25.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.61R   74.78  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25