Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 9 October 2009 at 21:02:04 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 October 2009, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea          8   21  +12      83.92    10.35    51.28    23.50    42.25    59.30    74.46    93.90     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   19  +11      85.83     9.51    64.88    27.15    50.99    69.10    82.25    96.21     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        8   16   +7      75.03    11.07    44.16     5.85    15.58    28.35    44.08    76.28     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City         7   16   +7      77.90    11.64    43.70    10.22    23.43    38.98    54.37    82.24     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          7   15  +14      83.09    11.25    77.16    23.90    43.39    59.20    71.62    90.54     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        8   15  +10      76.10    10.89    53.74     7.68    18.93    32.71    48.73    80.70     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      7   13   +4      64.82    12.70    18.36     1.48     4.43     9.41    17.10    42.12     0.26R    0.02  
Sunderland       8   13   +3      56.98    11.51     2.38     0.17     0.78     2.12     4.76    18.72     0.74R    0.07  
Burnley          8   12   -9      44.23    10.97   -27.42     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.32     2.47     9.25R    1.62  
Everton          7   10   -2      40.58    11.52   -35.39     0.00     0.03     0.11     0.38     2.29    17.34R    3.47  
Stoke            8    9   -4      44.33    11.16   -13.95     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.33     2.65     8.65R    1.38  
Wigan            8    9   -7      41.47    10.68   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     1.50    12.70R    2.02  
Bolton           7    8   -1      44.94    11.76   -18.57     0.01     0.05     0.22     0.59     3.58     9.27R    1.55  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      39.15    10.95   -16.18     0.01     0.02     0.05     0.12     1.08    17.96R    3.25  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.48    11.61   -24.67     0.01     0.02     0.06     0.21     1.66    19.38R    3.75  
Blackburn        7    7   -7      39.31    11.09   -30.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.13     1.18    19.32R    4.09  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -7      28.27     9.09   -52.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    58.50R   21.64  
Hull             8    7  -12      32.52     9.71   -50.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    40.59R   12.57  
West_Ham         7    5   -3      43.20    11.83   -14.23     0.01     0.04     0.12     0.40     2.71    11.67R    2.22  
Portsmouth       8    3   -9      23.92     9.06   -45.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    74.36R   42.34  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Barnsley vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        11   24  +13     102.98    10.35    63.00    65.19    84.53    98.70    89.98P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        11   21  +10      87.06    12.16    41.23    10.46    32.38    80.95    45.89P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    11   20   +6      79.11    12.54    25.21     3.72    13.02    59.38    23.84P    0.11R    0.00  
Cardiff          11   19  +12      89.42    11.70    53.47    14.14    41.05    86.33    55.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston          11   19   +6      72.86    13.01    15.85     1.47     5.82    40.17    13.64P    0.55R    0.06  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +4      69.03    12.71    10.49     0.69     3.04    29.28     8.23P    1.06R    0.13  
Leicester        11   17   +2      68.19    12.35     7.92     0.40     2.35    25.66     7.93P    0.94R    0.10  
Bristol_City     11   17   +1      71.49    12.67    11.89     0.89     3.95    35.22    12.16P    0.61R    0.06  
Blackpool        11   16   +1      69.92    13.12    10.65     0.78     3.67    31.56     9.87P    1.05R    0.13  
Nottm_Forest     11   16   +1      59.93    11.82    -4.11     0.08     0.44     9.21     2.33P    3.53R    0.47  
Coventry         11   16   +0      62.07    12.84    -4.40     0.20     1.03    13.55     3.30P    4.11R    0.64  
Crystal_Palace   10   15   +0      61.42    13.31    -3.47     0.18     1.09    13.60     3.80P    4.34R    0.62  
QPR              10   14   +3      71.97    14.00    17.16     1.59     6.04    38.95    15.09P    1.05R    0.14  
Swansea          11   14   -2      53.62    12.19   -10.23     0.02     0.16     3.80     1.07P   11.66R    2.22  
Watford          11   14   -3      53.53    12.38   -21.43     0.02     0.15     4.11     0.77P   13.31R    2.94  
Sheff_Wed        11   13   +1      62.76    12.68     3.92     0.11     0.93    15.51     4.04P    3.12R    0.39  
Derby            11   13   -4      51.06    12.20   -22.82     0.02     0.09     2.67     0.49P   17.34R    4.01  
Doncaster        11   11   -2      55.67    12.31    -5.16     0.02     0.17     5.38     1.45P    8.78R    1.68  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -7      51.11    12.57   -23.31     0.01     0.07     2.93     0.51P   18.86R    5.05  
Barnsley         11   11   -8      43.02    11.44   -38.84     0.00     0.02     0.52     0.10P   40.13R   13.63  
Reading          11   10   -6      45.70    11.98   -23.87     0.00     0.01     1.11     0.23P   31.04R    9.67  
Plymouth         11    8   -9      41.93    11.63   -32.83     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.08P   43.54R   16.36  
Peterborough     11    7   -7      41.83    12.05   -31.63     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.11P   43.89R   17.44  
Ipswich          11    5  -12      39.68    12.24   -38.70     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P   50.94R   24.26  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 9 October 2009, Hartlepool vs Brentford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     11   27  +13      99.48    11.14    50.06    42.13    68.15    97.08    78.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Charlton         11   24  +10      92.90    11.75    46.57    19.89    44.45    91.44    58.16P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   11   22   +4      75.01    12.44    12.54     1.91     6.21    46.78    13.35P    0.37R    0.01  
Colchester       11   21  +12      96.62    10.70    61.04    30.67    60.30    96.35    74.10P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          11   20   +3      74.28    12.22    13.47     1.08     4.21    44.51    14.19P    0.40R    0.00  
Swindon          11   18   -1      65.62    12.57    -1.89     0.30     1.28    20.60     4.48P    3.18R    0.15  
Norwich          11   16   +5      74.66    12.16    25.72     1.21     4.68    47.11    12.66P    0.44R    0.01  
Oldham           11   16   -1      56.82    12.10   -11.16     0.04     0.25     6.59     1.47P   10.67R    0.80  
Huddersfield     11   15   +5      75.52    12.67    27.81     2.03     6.73    50.64    16.96P    0.59R    0.03  
Millwall         11   14   +4      64.65    11.93     9.47     0.21     0.90    17.94     5.88P    2.74R    0.13  
Southend         12   14   +1      59.99    11.94    -0.83     0.05     0.34    10.09     2.28P    6.42R    0.31  
Brentford        12   14   -3      55.23    11.26    -9.90     0.02     0.09     3.90     0.87P   11.64R    0.73  
Walsall          11   14   -3      55.80    11.58   -11.67     0.01     0.07     4.81     0.94P   12.01R    0.62  
Exeter           11   13   -2      56.53    11.96    -8.80     0.02     0.12     6.12     1.16P   11.24R    0.73  
Hartlepool       12   13   -2      58.38    11.98    -2.85     0.02     0.17     7.64     1.72P    8.85R    0.60  
Leyton_Orient    11   12   -7      48.66    11.82   -29.11     0.01     0.04     1.75     0.26P   29.86R    4.02  
Gillingham       10   11   +0      65.83    13.34     9.58     0.33     1.54    23.53     6.06P    4.05R    0.19  
Yeovil           11   11   -1      55.35    12.41    -6.07     0.03     0.17     5.76     1.38P   13.61R    1.11  
Carlisle         11   11   -3      46.06    11.91   -26.37     0.00     0.04     1.44     0.26P   38.01R    5.43  
Stockport        11   11   -4      49.46    11.81   -20.17     0.00     0.03     1.96     0.37P   26.67R    3.26  
Brighton         10    9   -8      39.15    11.74   -46.38     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.05P   62.91R   18.63  
Tranmere         11    7  -17      31.82    10.54   -68.80     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   83.34R   43.30  
Wycombe          11    6   -8      37.02    10.63   -34.05     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   68.64R   19.57  
Southampton      12    5   +3      62.40    11.65    21.79     0.03     0.24    13.49     4.50P    4.35R    0.36  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2009, Burton_Albion vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          11   25   +9      88.37    12.10    32.59    12.80    42.15    81.21    53.83P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            11   23   +8      86.17    11.88    33.83     8.93    34.92    76.77    45.32P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            11   21   +8      88.74    11.42    44.46    11.38    43.91    83.95    54.57P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               11   21   +7      84.69    11.72    32.53     5.74    29.66    73.77    42.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           11   21   +6      81.69    11.90    28.30     4.21    21.93    64.69    31.57P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         11   20  +17     100.18     9.88    85.36    50.72    83.70    98.05    88.76P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             11   20   +8      80.02    12.28    28.47     3.84    19.78    59.25    29.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot            11   18   +6      68.21    12.53     8.31     0.64     4.46    24.45     9.09P    0.10R    0.00  
Bradford             11   17   +0      73.23    12.57    14.95     0.89     8.02    37.34    13.93P    0.06R    0.00  
Chesterfield         11   17   -1      65.67    11.89    -0.29     0.14     1.94    16.28     4.74P    0.23R    0.01  
Bury                 11   16   -3      49.00    11.42   -29.86     0.01     0.09     1.54     0.34P    5.82R    0.22  
Burton_Albion        11   15   +1      71.89    11.99    15.89     0.49     5.48    32.91    12.29P    0.06R    0.00  
Cheltenham           11   14   -2      59.03    11.87    -8.72     0.02     0.43     6.96     1.57P    1.14R    0.03  
Accrington_Stanley   11   13   -5      48.03    11.48   -32.63     0.00     0.05     1.09     0.24P    8.48R    0.42  
Macclesfield         11   13   -6      53.88    11.97   -20.16     0.00     0.17     3.24     0.71P    3.83R    0.15  
Port_Vale            11   12   +0      56.23    12.12    -5.15     0.02     0.37     5.32     1.67P    1.84R    0.05  
Crewe                11   12   -2      50.82    11.69   -23.23     0.01     0.12     2.03     0.45P    4.76R    0.21  
Lincoln_City         11   12   -8      46.75    11.63   -28.66     0.00     0.03     0.93     0.19P   10.76R    0.53  
Northampton          11   11   -4      64.48    12.25     4.93     0.10     1.55    15.00     4.44P    0.59R    0.03  
Hereford             11   11   -4      50.18    11.66   -22.71     0.01     0.10     1.76     0.42P    5.39R    0.31  
Morecambe            11   11   -4      62.94    12.31     2.14     0.06     1.09    12.27     3.53P    0.85R    0.09  
Grimsby              11   10  -11      34.40    10.02   -61.23     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   50.01R    5.36  
Torquay              11    8   -6      48.42    11.76   -21.09     0.00     0.05     1.13     0.27P    7.75R    0.65  
Darlington           11    2  -14      15.46     6.97   -78.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.31R   91.94  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 October 2009, Tamworth vs York; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         15   36  +19     103.35     8.84    62.26    73.14    98.66    80.93P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          15   30  +11      88.00     9.90    35.47     8.41    75.43    27.27P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          14   27  +10      86.12    10.32    33.55     6.84    68.80    24.69P    0.00     0.00  
York               14   26   +9      81.93    10.35    28.70     3.04    53.35    14.65P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          15   26   +7      73.41    10.17    14.39     0.44    22.50     4.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton              14   25   +5      79.42    10.50    21.93     1.90    43.12    10.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster      15   24   +6      72.01    10.10    14.83     0.38    18.52     4.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         15   24   +4      70.66    10.16    10.82     0.31    14.84     3.35P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      14   23  +10      83.74    10.23    38.08     4.79    61.60    21.11P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           15   22   +3      69.33    10.06    10.56     0.20    12.17     2.25P    0.03R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       15   22   -6      59.69    10.17   -12.92     0.00     2.06     0.21P    0.45R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd      15   21  +10      72.81    10.10    25.83     0.52    21.58     5.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   15   20   +4      62.01    10.01     2.38     0.02     3.67     0.63P    0.17R    0.00  
Histon             15   18   -4      54.66     9.83   -14.51     0.00     0.60     0.08P    1.60R    0.05  
Eastbourne_Boro    15   16   -8      47.19     9.49   -25.75     0.00     0.07     0.00P    7.88R    0.40  
Salisbury          15   14   +1      53.40     9.82    -4.69     0.00     0.46     0.08P    2.06R    0.10  
Wrexham            13   14   +0      58.17    11.11    -0.62     0.02     2.43     0.60P    1.31R    0.06  
Barrow             15   14  -12      46.41     9.65   -28.71     0.00     0.07     0.01P   10.33R    0.73  
Grays_Athletic     14   11   -9      44.23     9.64   -29.42     0.00     0.03     0.00P   15.02R    1.43  
Forest_Green       15   11  -16      34.76     8.49   -46.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.53R    6.50  
Gateshead          14    9  -12      44.49    10.12   -28.07     0.00     0.03     0.01P   15.60R    1.19  
Ebbsfleet_United   15    9  -15      31.78     8.24   -44.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.08R   13.29  
Hayes_&_Yeading    14    8  -10      37.08     9.45   -39.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.00R    5.20  
Chester            14  -13   -7      19.50     9.93   -23.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.88R   71.06  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25