Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 8 October 2009 at 21:02:06 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 October 2009, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea          8   21  +12      83.86    10.39    51.28    23.19    42.09    59.92    75.11    93.59     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   19  +11      86.32     9.51    65.96    29.04    52.99    71.11    83.81    96.55     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        8   16   +7      74.70    11.02    44.00     5.50    14.82    27.67    43.09    75.96     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City         7   16   +7      77.20    11.85    42.15     9.53    22.18    36.98    51.95    80.02     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal          7   15  +14      83.02    11.22    77.11    23.09    42.91    58.90    71.71    90.23     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        8   15  +10      76.17    10.83    54.44     7.84    19.45    33.08    49.33    81.09     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      7   13   +4      64.92    12.69    18.61     1.61     4.67     9.48    17.21    42.74     0.19R    0.01  
Sunderland       8   13   +3      56.83    11.39     1.93     0.14     0.64     1.84     4.51    18.37     0.69R    0.06  
Burnley          8   12   -9      45.07    11.17   -25.97     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.40     2.99     8.18R    1.16  
Everton          7   10   -2      40.94    12.15   -33.73     0.01     0.05     0.21     0.65     3.03    17.68R    3.47  
Stoke            8    9   -4      44.87    11.36   -13.11     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.41     3.08     8.32R    1.39  
Wigan            8    9   -7      41.57    10.83   -26.13     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.19     1.75    12.21R    1.94  
Bolton           7    8   -1      45.30    11.98   -17.68     0.02     0.08     0.29     0.76     4.13     8.65R    1.19  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      39.78    11.41   -15.02     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.14     1.26    18.14R    3.74  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.31    11.65   -25.72     0.01     0.02     0.07     0.23     1.59    19.57R    3.93  
Blackburn        7    7   -7      39.11    11.12   -32.05     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.16     1.18    19.27R    3.92  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -7      27.92     9.23   -53.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    59.19R   21.62  
Hull             8    7  -12      32.70     9.76   -49.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12    39.34R   11.12  
West_Ham         7    5   -3      42.20    11.81   -16.30     0.01     0.03     0.12     0.32     2.24    13.01R    2.44  
Portsmouth       8    3   -9      23.29     9.05   -46.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    75.54R   44.01  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Barnsley vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        11   24  +13     102.74    10.29    62.36    64.99    84.64    98.69    90.06P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        11   21  +10      87.08    12.10    41.40    10.88    32.29    81.03    45.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    11   20   +6      79.06    12.68    25.14     4.19    13.62    58.91    24.26P    0.12R    0.01  
Cardiff          11   19  +12      88.84    11.69    52.01    13.37    39.18    85.52    53.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          11   19   +6      72.68    12.82    15.58     1.40     5.58    39.75    13.09P    0.52R    0.05  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +4      68.81    12.43    10.22     0.58     2.75    28.06     7.70P    0.93R    0.10  
Leicester        11   17   +2      68.60    12.31     8.55     0.45     2.50    26.80     8.48P    0.87R    0.05  
Bristol_City     11   17   +1      72.12    12.82    12.74     1.11     5.01    36.72    13.57P    0.51R    0.07  
Blackpool        11   16   +1      69.78    13.17    10.43     0.86     3.82    31.40     9.87P    1.20R    0.13  
Nottm_Forest     11   16   +1      60.12    12.18    -3.66     0.08     0.56    10.02     2.67P    3.84R    0.50  
Coventry         11   16   +0      62.55    12.98    -3.36     0.31     1.29    14.50     3.78P    3.89R    0.65  
Crystal_Palace   10   15   +0      61.95    13.05    -2.59     0.16     1.08    14.04     3.95P    3.71R    0.61  
QPR              10   14   +3      71.58    13.99    16.58     1.39     5.96    37.99    14.50P    1.02R    0.14  
Swansea          11   14   -2      54.12    12.07    -9.59     0.01     0.14     4.14     1.16P   10.59R    1.92  
Watford          11   14   -3      53.47    12.62   -21.46     0.03     0.28     4.59     0.98P   13.64R    3.10  
Sheff_Wed        11   13   +1      62.72    12.39     3.76     0.13     0.91    14.91     3.90P    2.70R    0.34  
Derby            11   13   -4      51.07    12.12   -22.78     0.01     0.09     2.74     0.54P   17.17R    4.15  
Doncaster        11   11   -2      55.40    12.13    -5.65     0.03     0.18     4.94     1.26P    8.88R    1.64  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -7      50.26    12.43   -24.69     0.00     0.07     2.36     0.41P   20.62R    5.77  
Barnsley         11   11   -8      43.01    11.48   -38.48     0.00     0.02     0.52     0.10P   40.63R   14.14  
Reading          11   10   -6      45.82    11.77   -23.63     0.00     0.02     1.07     0.24P   30.51R    8.90  
Plymouth         11    8   -9      42.09    11.63   -32.35     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.10P   42.87R   16.17  
Peterborough     11    7   -7      41.40    11.85   -32.33     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.10P   45.37R   18.09  
Ipswich          11    5  -12      39.91    11.96   -38.20     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P   50.38R   23.46  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Brentford vs Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     11   27  +13     100.17    11.01    51.20    45.52    71.46    97.53    81.19P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         11   24  +10      92.20    11.95    45.21    19.04    42.73    89.90    56.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   11   22   +4      74.18    12.58    11.24     1.87     5.96    43.92    12.60P    0.49R    0.01  
Colchester       11   21  +12      95.62    10.79    59.15    27.66    57.30    95.57    71.28P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons          11   20   +3      74.36    12.37    13.64     1.31     4.79    44.22    14.77P    0.56R    0.00  
Swindon          11   18   -1      66.82    12.86     0.24     0.40     1.72    23.60     5.58P    2.95R    0.15  
Norwich          11   16   +5      74.37    12.26    25.06     1.25     4.50    46.41    12.54P    0.58R    0.02  
Oldham           11   16   -1      58.09    12.27    -8.82     0.08     0.45     7.85     1.91P    9.23R    0.65  
Huddersfield     11   15   +5      74.67    12.77    26.18     1.85     6.13    48.15    15.98P    0.81R    0.04  
Millwall         11   14   +4      64.07    11.98     8.65     0.17     0.83    16.49     5.56P    3.08R    0.10  
Southend         11   14   +3      65.62    13.07     9.02     0.48     1.88    22.58     6.87P    3.32R    0.12  
Walsall          11   14   -3      55.83    11.72   -11.46     0.01     0.13     4.99     0.96P   12.23R    0.61  
Exeter           11   13   -2      56.89    12.31    -8.24     0.02     0.17     6.89     1.53P   11.36R    0.69  
Brentford        11   13   -3      55.25    11.48   -11.08     0.03     0.10     4.22     0.90P   12.38R    0.91  
Hartlepool       11   12   -2      59.08    12.60    -2.62     0.03     0.26     9.47     2.28P    9.12R    0.73  
Leyton_Orient    11   12   -7      49.42    11.98   -27.66     0.01     0.06     2.15     0.41P   28.26R    3.46  
Gillingham       10   11   +0      64.72    13.32     7.48     0.21     1.11    20.80     5.03P    5.05R    0.28  
Yeovil           11   11   -1      54.99    12.37    -6.71     0.03     0.19     5.31     1.39P   14.74R    1.30  
Carlisle         11   11   -3      45.89    11.87   -26.72     0.00     0.02     1.24     0.26P   38.87R    5.91  
Stockport        11   11   -4      49.24    11.86   -20.45     0.00     0.03     1.99     0.39P   27.66R    3.76  
Brighton         10    9   -8      40.15    11.87   -44.07     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.05P   59.04R   16.54  
Tranmere         11    7  -17      31.26    10.63   -69.84     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   84.53R   46.96  
Wycombe          11    6   -8      38.51    11.13   -31.56     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P   63.61R   16.46  
Southampton      11    2   +1      56.28    12.33    12.14     0.03     0.15     6.14     2.05P   12.12R    1.30  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2009, Burton_Albion vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          11   25   +9      88.67    12.17    32.90    14.06    44.58    81.43    55.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham            11   23   +8      85.82    11.86    33.12     8.77    34.45    76.57    44.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            11   21   +8      87.50    11.63    41.55    10.08    41.00    81.25    51.49P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               11   21   +7      84.31    11.70    31.84     5.70    29.44    73.26    41.73P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           11   21   +6      81.23    11.83    27.50     4.09    21.29    63.68    30.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         11   20  +17     100.00     9.97    84.61    50.66    83.81    98.00    89.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             11   20   +8      79.59    12.31    27.67     3.98    19.63    58.65    29.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Aldershot            11   18   +6      69.17    12.65    10.10     0.70     5.37    27.65    10.59P    0.10R    0.00  
Bradford             11   17   +0      73.15    12.51    14.71     1.00     8.33    37.44    14.35P    0.08R    0.01  
Chesterfield         11   17   -1      65.46    11.98    -0.68     0.13     2.03    16.34     4.77P    0.24R    0.01  
Bury                 11   16   -3      49.35    11.53   -28.78     0.00     0.11     1.78     0.36P    5.73R    0.36  
Burton_Albion        11   15   +1      71.09    12.29    14.59     0.53     5.41    31.48    11.78P    0.11R    0.00  
Cheltenham           11   14   -2      59.90    12.11    -7.22     0.03     0.65     8.39     2.08P    1.11R    0.05  
Accrington_Stanley   11   13   -5      48.20    11.44   -32.17     0.00     0.06     1.15     0.24P    8.29R    0.58  
Macclesfield         11   13   -6      54.06    12.16   -19.73     0.02     0.25     3.47     0.78P    4.01R    0.17  
Port_Vale            11   12   +0      56.76    12.29    -4.35     0.02     0.51     6.01     1.95P    1.86R    0.12  
Crewe                11   12   -2      51.13    11.80   -22.87     0.01     0.12     2.39     0.60P    5.03R    0.24  
Lincoln_City         11   12   -8      46.10    11.43   -29.92     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.12P   11.59R    0.70  
Northampton          11   11   -4      64.55    12.25     5.19     0.11     1.70    15.55     4.60P    0.64R    0.03  
Hereford             11   11   -4      50.74    11.93   -21.69     0.00     0.11     2.23     0.54P    5.52R    0.44  
Morecambe            11   11   -4      62.10    12.34     0.47     0.07     1.06    11.34     3.21P    0.91R    0.05  
Grimsby              11   10  -11      34.98     9.93   -59.37     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   47.30R    5.72  
Torquay              11    8   -6      47.93    12.18   -22.10     0.01     0.08     1.16     0.31P   10.08R    1.22  
Darlington           11    2  -14      16.27     7.27   -75.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.38R   90.32  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 October 2009, Tamworth vs York; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         15   36  +19     103.04     9.11    61.91    71.90    98.36    79.73P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          15   30  +11      88.07     9.84    35.68     8.78    75.73    27.23P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          14   27  +10      85.93    10.46    33.24     7.10    67.64    24.81P    0.00     0.00  
York               14   26   +9      82.02    10.48    28.76     3.36    53.96    15.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield          15   26   +7      73.30    10.34    14.30     0.58    22.50     4.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton              14   25   +5      79.70    10.67    22.36     2.16    44.30    11.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster      15   24   +6      71.74    10.26    14.37     0.49    18.15     4.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         15   24   +4      70.42    10.26    10.45     0.25    14.56     3.39P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      14   23  +10      83.71    10.06    38.18     4.62    61.66    20.81P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           15   22   +3      69.00    10.07     9.93     0.17    11.17     2.12P    0.03R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       15   22   -6      60.14    10.11   -12.27     0.01     2.12     0.33P    0.37R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd      15   21  +10      73.16    10.09    26.47     0.54    22.49     5.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   15   20   +4      62.09     9.96     2.51     0.02     3.55     0.75P    0.16R    0.00  
Histon             15   18   -4      54.75     9.86   -14.39     0.00     0.71     0.11P    1.58R    0.04  
Eastbourne_Boro    15   16   -8      47.14     9.39   -25.83     0.00     0.08     0.01P    7.80R    0.38  
Salisbury          15   14   +1      53.27     9.84    -4.89     0.00     0.49     0.10P    2.18R    0.09  
Wrexham            13   14   +0      58.26    11.19    -0.35     0.02     2.39     0.57P    1.39R    0.05  
Barrow             15   14  -12      46.74     9.80   -28.12     0.00     0.07     0.01P   10.05R    0.67  
Grays_Athletic     14   11   -9      43.98     9.74   -29.84     0.00     0.03     0.00P   15.26R    1.57  
Forest_Green       15   11  -16      34.39     8.39   -46.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.85R    7.12  
Gateshead          14    9  -12      44.75     9.97   -27.78     0.00     0.04     0.01P   14.52R    1.25  
Ebbsfleet_United   15    9  -15      31.96     8.13   -44.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.72R   12.91  
Hayes_&_Yeading    14    8  -10      36.74     9.51   -40.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.29R    5.79  
Chester            14  -13   -7      19.77     9.79   -23.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.77R   70.12  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25