Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 7 October 2009 at 21:02:11 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 October 2009, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea          8   21  +12      84.25    10.32    51.84    24.08    43.04    60.81    75.94    94.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   19  +11      86.22     9.57    65.90    29.03    52.39    70.12    83.07    96.17     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        8   16   +7      75.09    10.85    44.53     5.41    15.05    27.96    43.95    76.85     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City         7   16   +7      77.66    11.62    43.28     9.82    22.87    37.88    53.12    81.17     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          7   15  +14      83.20    10.95    77.13    22.71    42.77    59.12    72.23    90.85     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        8   15  +10      76.11    10.65    54.20     7.40    18.84    32.40    48.04    81.01     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      7   13   +4      64.68    12.42    18.22     1.32     3.96     8.63    15.99    40.86     0.16R    0.00  
Sunderland       8   13   +3      56.94    11.54     2.21     0.17     0.73     1.95     4.44    18.82     0.71R    0.06  
Burnley          8   12   -9      44.66    11.09   -26.71     0.00     0.07     0.18     0.46     2.72     8.37R    1.29  
Everton          7   10   -2      39.83    11.33   -36.56     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.32     1.79    18.46R    3.44  
Stoke            8    9   -4      44.24    11.12   -13.99     0.00     0.03     0.11     0.36     2.80     8.41R    1.26  
Wigan            8    9   -7      41.98    11.00   -25.46     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.29     1.89    11.52R    1.86  
Bolton           7    8   -1      45.36    12.37   -17.64     0.05     0.14     0.38     0.90     4.48     9.64R    1.43  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      39.35    11.13   -15.68     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.16     1.02    18.00R    3.62  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.00    11.72   -25.74     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.26     1.51    20.71R    4.52  
Blackburn        7    7   -7      39.33    11.11   -31.27     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.15     1.22    18.67R    3.95  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -7      28.34     9.22   -52.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05    57.87R   20.72  
Hull             8    7  -12      32.60     9.85   -50.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.16    39.95R   11.67  
West_Ham         7    5   -3      43.01    11.72   -14.64     0.01     0.04     0.10     0.29     2.53    11.71R    2.33  
Portsmouth       8    3   -9      23.34     8.89   -46.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    75.83R   43.84  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Barnsley vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        11   24  +13     103.01    10.40    63.23    64.65    84.11    98.77    89.97P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        11   21  +10      86.79    12.09    40.78    10.25    30.82    80.33    44.70P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    11   20   +6      79.04    12.83    25.09     4.07    13.38    59.13    23.89P    0.17R    0.02  
Cardiff          11   19  +12      89.59    11.78    53.82    14.47    41.89    86.41    55.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          11   19   +6      73.33    13.02    16.58     1.71     6.52    41.33    14.43P    0.46R    0.03  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +4      69.08    12.66    10.60     0.68     3.16    28.92     8.42P    1.08R    0.09  
Leicester        11   17   +2      68.40    12.40     8.23     0.52     2.42    26.08     7.97P    0.77R    0.07  
Bristol_City     11   17   +1      72.59    12.68    13.43     0.96     4.74    38.15    13.80P    0.49R    0.04  
Blackpool        11   16   +1      69.20    12.89     9.55     0.69     3.21    29.25     8.89P    1.05R    0.14  
Nottm_Forest     11   16   +1      59.52    11.88    -4.64     0.05     0.37     9.02     2.23P    3.80R    0.41  
Coventry         11   16   +0      62.65    12.87    -3.26     0.29     1.26    14.46     3.57P    3.61R    0.54  
Crystal_Palace   10   15   +0      61.34    13.37    -3.51     0.19     1.06    13.66     3.86P    4.43R    0.74  
QPR              10   14   +3      71.79    13.69    16.88     1.24     5.38    38.26    13.89P    0.91R    0.13  
Swansea          11   14   -2      54.90    12.07    -8.70     0.03     0.18     4.41     1.28P    9.64R    1.80  
Watford          11   14   -3      53.48    12.53   -21.42     0.03     0.18     4.42     0.83P   13.32R    2.92  
Sheff_Wed        11   13   +1      62.51    12.51     3.46     0.12     0.94    14.49     3.77P    2.99R    0.44  
Derby            11   13   -4      50.68    12.10   -23.34     0.00     0.10     2.49     0.46P   18.00R    4.05  
Doncaster        11   11   -2      55.26    12.15    -5.78     0.04     0.16     4.80     1.23P    9.08R    1.70  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -7      50.66    12.57   -24.19     0.01     0.08     2.72     0.53P   19.57R    5.17  
Barnsley         11   11   -8      42.74    11.17   -39.28     0.00     0.01     0.43     0.06P   41.17R   13.52  
Reading          11   10   -6      45.96    12.12   -23.36     0.01     0.02     1.16     0.27P   30.31R    9.43  
Plymouth         11    8   -9      41.82    11.68   -32.90     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.07P   43.40R   16.47  
Peterborough     11    7   -7      41.39    11.81   -32.76     0.00     0.01     0.45     0.08P   44.74R   17.93  
Ipswich          11    5  -12      39.73    12.32   -38.50     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.09P   50.96R   24.35  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Brentford vs Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     11   27  +13      99.78    11.05    50.67    45.17    71.02    97.24    80.60P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         11   24  +10      92.03    11.79    44.69    18.77    42.67    90.04    56.90P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   11   22   +4      74.56    12.41    11.83     2.03     6.18    45.18    12.90P    0.45R    0.01  
Colchester       11   21  +12      95.31    10.92    58.57    27.93    56.96    95.28    71.28P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          11   20   +3      74.32    12.31    13.53     1.31     4.96    44.46    14.86P    0.46R    0.00  
Swindon          11   18   -1      66.50    12.55    -0.32     0.40     1.68    22.24     5.37P    2.69R    0.14  
Norwich          11   16   +5      74.45    12.35    25.34     1.32     5.11    46.33    13.27P    0.57R    0.01  
Oldham           11   16   -1      58.46    12.16    -8.19     0.08     0.37     8.10     1.89P    8.59R    0.54  
Huddersfield     11   15   +5      74.12    12.81    25.30     1.93     6.07    45.87    15.30P    0.78R    0.02  
Millwall         11   14   +4      64.42    11.97     9.19     0.18     0.85    17.37     5.68P    2.78R    0.10  
Southend         11   14   +3      65.72    13.04     9.31     0.45     1.82    22.56     6.71P    3.25R    0.18  
Walsall          11   14   -3      55.85    11.64   -11.50     0.01     0.11     4.83     0.91P   12.03R    0.60  
Exeter           11   13   -2      56.14    12.06    -9.37     0.02     0.14     5.87     1.19P   12.20R    0.84  
Brentford        11   13   -3      55.59    11.94   -10.74     0.02     0.19     5.03     1.13P   12.61R    0.99  
Hartlepool       11   12   -2      59.92    12.41    -1.21     0.08     0.31    10.04     2.34P    7.69R    0.49  
Leyton_Orient    11   12   -7      49.51    12.18   -27.46     0.00     0.04     2.23     0.35P   28.53R    3.84  
Gillingham       10   11   +0      65.12    13.21     8.38     0.23     1.18    21.67     5.30P    4.55R    0.27  
Yeovil           11   11   -1      54.72    12.28    -7.08     0.02     0.09     5.10     1.21P   15.00R    1.30  
Carlisle         11   11   -3      46.00    12.03   -26.39     0.01     0.04     1.50     0.28P   38.57R    5.78  
Stockport        11   11   -4      49.40    11.88   -20.29     0.01     0.06     2.04     0.40P   27.04R    3.38  
Brighton         10    9   -8      39.82    11.88   -44.63     0.00     0.01     0.44     0.08P   60.48R   17.22  
Tranmere         11    7  -17      31.36    10.48   -69.89     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   84.46R   46.08  
Wycombe          11    6   -8      38.31    10.83   -31.78     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   64.55R   16.73  
Southampton      11    2   +1      56.18    12.54    12.03     0.03     0.14     6.41     1.98P   12.69R    1.50  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2009, Burton_Albion vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          11   25   +9      88.24    12.24    32.49    13.17    42.43    80.61    53.80P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            11   23   +8      86.26    11.77    34.01     8.93    35.64    77.49    46.27P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            11   21   +8      88.04    11.58    42.88    10.90    42.04    82.24    52.25P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               11   21   +7      84.43    11.99    31.96     5.96    29.90    72.75    42.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           11   21   +6      82.14    11.65    29.00     4.44    23.13    66.64    33.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         11   20  +17      99.87     9.93    84.21    50.16    83.02    97.98    88.28P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             11   20   +8      79.59    12.25    27.58     3.76    18.79    58.21    28.90P    0.01R    0.00  
Aldershot            11   18   +6      68.44    12.56     8.91     0.57     4.58    25.43     9.45P    0.11R    0.01  
Bradford             11   17   +0      73.47    12.61    15.39     1.14     8.65    38.51    14.73P    0.06R    0.01  
Chesterfield         11   17   -1      65.64    11.99    -0.31     0.17     1.89    16.63     4.80P    0.32R    0.01  
Bury                 11   16   -3      49.17    11.60   -29.20     0.01     0.11     1.63     0.38P    6.33R    0.24  
Burton_Albion        11   15   +1      71.41    12.19    15.04     0.53     5.50    31.72    12.01P    0.12R    0.01  
Cheltenham           11   14   -2      59.74    12.11    -7.48     0.04     0.63     7.92     1.99P    1.14R    0.05  
Accrington_Stanley   11   13   -5      47.87    11.32   -32.81     0.00     0.07     1.11     0.25P    8.57R    0.52  
Macclesfield         11   13   -6      54.04    12.11   -19.70     0.02     0.31     3.50     0.89P    3.79R    0.25  
Port_Vale            11   12   +0      55.45    12.26    -6.33     0.02     0.41     4.84     1.58P    2.35R    0.13  
Crewe                11   12   -2      51.21    11.75   -22.64     0.00     0.12     2.38     0.51P    4.49R    0.25  
Lincoln_City         11   12   -8      46.84    11.57   -28.69     0.00     0.04     0.92     0.21P   10.87R    0.64  
Northampton          11   11   -4      64.83    12.06     5.60     0.13     1.60    15.48     4.53P    0.50R    0.04  
Hereford             11   11   -4      50.28    11.49   -22.40     0.00     0.10     1.64     0.42P    5.38R    0.41  
Morecambe            11   11   -4      62.35    12.28     0.74     0.05     0.99    11.18     3.10P    1.06R    0.11  
Grimsby              11   10  -11      34.80    10.09   -59.86     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   48.74R    5.79  
Torquay              11    8   -6      48.23    11.87   -21.48     0.00     0.05     1.16     0.28P    8.80R    0.84  
Darlington           11    2  -14      16.02     7.35   -76.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.35R   90.71  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 October 2009, Tamworth vs York; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         15   36  +19     102.71     9.03    61.20    71.00    98.26    79.48P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          15   30  +11      88.12     9.83    35.75     9.22    75.95    28.03P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          14   27  +10      86.32    10.30    33.81     7.79    69.20    25.86P    0.00     0.00  
York               14   26   +9      81.86    10.23    28.66     3.16    53.46    14.25P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          15   26   +7      73.28    10.24    14.22     0.45    22.39     4.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton              14   25   +5      79.39    10.68    21.94     2.33    43.29    10.82P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      15   24   +6      71.81    10.14    14.47     0.37    18.35     4.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         15   24   +4      71.29    10.08    11.73     0.31    16.29     3.78P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      14   23  +10      83.20    10.20    37.07     4.59    59.54    19.97P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           15   22   +3      69.18    10.19    10.26     0.21    12.06     2.40P    0.04R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       15   22   -6      60.25    10.23   -12.16     0.03     2.46     0.33P    0.48R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd      15   21  +10      72.82    10.11    25.89     0.49    21.62     5.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   15   20   +4      61.69    10.14     1.87     0.03     3.53     0.74P    0.26R    0.01  
Histon             15   18   -4      54.62     9.88   -14.48     0.00     0.67     0.10P    1.62R    0.03  
Eastbourne_Boro    15   16   -8      47.33     9.62   -25.55     0.00     0.10     0.01P    8.00R    0.39  
Salisbury          15   14   +1      53.31     9.89    -4.82     0.00     0.52     0.10P    2.17R    0.08  
Wrexham            13   14   +0      58.19    10.97    -0.37     0.02     2.13     0.50P    1.09R    0.03  
Barrow             15   14  -12      46.82     9.69   -27.93     0.00     0.08     0.00P    9.75R    0.65  
Grays_Athletic     14   11   -9      44.01     9.76   -29.85     0.00     0.03     0.00P   15.83R    1.61  
Forest_Green       15   11  -16      34.57     8.62   -46.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.22R    7.43  
Gateshead          14    9  -12      44.26    10.15   -28.46     0.00     0.06     0.01P   16.38R    1.62  
Ebbsfleet_United   15    9  -15      32.06     8.22   -44.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.35R   12.76  
Hayes_&_Yeading    14    8  -10      37.02     9.62   -39.38     0.00     0.01     0.00    39.33R    5.43  
Chester            14  -13   -7      19.87     9.85   -22.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.46R   69.94  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25