Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 5 October 2009 at 21:01:59 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2009, Arsenal vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea          8   21  +12      84.42    10.33    52.45    24.10    43.44    60.96    76.17    94.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   19  +11      86.14     9.47    65.23    26.96    50.67    69.39    82.55    96.46     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        8   16   +7      74.61    11.13    43.46     5.06    13.91    26.29    42.10    75.45     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          7   15  +14      83.31    10.97    77.85    22.36    42.52    59.08    72.25    90.98     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        8   15  +10      75.89    10.82    53.50     7.12    17.59    30.85    47.26    80.36     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City         6   15   +7      77.78    12.95    43.19    11.99    25.14    39.34    52.82    78.58     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland       8   13   +3      57.25    11.75     2.79     0.15     0.68     2.14     5.12    20.13     0.82R    0.08  
Aston_Villa      6   12   +4      64.82    13.68    17.59     2.22     5.81    11.01    18.87    43.03     0.37R    0.01  
Burnley          8   12   -9      44.54    11.09   -26.99     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.34     2.45     8.50R    1.33  
Everton          7   10   -2      40.64    11.84   -35.64     0.00     0.03     0.14     0.41     2.64    17.37R    3.32  
Stoke            8    9   -4      44.53    11.24   -13.50     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.33     2.96     8.29R    1.43  
Wigan            8    9   -7      41.24    10.60   -26.58     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.15     1.41    12.16R    1.82  
Bolton           7    8   -1      45.98    12.06   -16.42     0.02     0.10     0.30     0.74     4.27     8.20R    1.41  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      38.96    10.99   -16.33     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.09     0.91    18.60R    3.67  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.73    11.88   -24.39     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.27     2.06    18.96R    3.69  
Blackburn        7    7   -7      39.25    11.36   -31.09     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.14     1.42    19.61R    4.02  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -7      28.47     9.33   -53.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    57.38R   20.47  
Hull             8    7  -12      32.24     9.69   -51.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10    41.79R   12.24  
West_Ham         7    5   -3      42.80    11.90   -14.99     0.01     0.05     0.14     0.39     2.62    11.94R    2.20  
Portsmouth       8    3   -9      23.32     8.90   -45.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    75.96R   44.30  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Barnsley vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        11   24  +13     102.77    10.46    62.95    64.57    84.23    98.49    89.85P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        11   21  +10      87.35    12.14    41.94    11.04    32.88    81.44    46.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    11   20   +6      79.31    12.94    25.58     4.28    14.09    59.63    24.93P    0.12R    0.01  
Cardiff          11   19  +12      89.25    11.73    53.16    13.86    40.33    85.99    54.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          11   19   +6      72.58    12.98    15.23     1.45     5.73    39.33    13.18P    0.46R    0.07  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +4      68.80    12.80    10.12     0.80     3.11    28.66     8.33P    1.13R    0.15  
Leicester        11   17   +2      68.26    12.30     8.06     0.42     2.27    25.67     7.76P    0.83R    0.05  
Bristol_City     11   17   +1      71.96    12.76    12.57     0.89     4.19    36.74    12.87P    0.65R    0.08  
Blackpool        11   16   +1      69.98    13.04    10.78     0.70     3.63    31.72     9.67P    0.99R    0.12  
Nottm_Forest     11   16   +1      59.84    12.04    -4.23     0.08     0.50     9.60     2.50P    3.77R    0.41  
Coventry         11   16   +0      62.58    12.82    -3.37     0.21     1.06    14.30     3.50P    3.66R    0.50  
Crystal_Palace   10   15   +0      61.31    12.91    -3.59     0.11     0.76    12.93     3.39P    4.12R    0.58  
QPR              10   14   +3      71.97    13.61    17.12     1.32     5.49    38.85    14.35P    0.77R    0.09  
Swansea          11   14   -2      54.12    12.30    -9.64     0.02     0.18     4.10     1.11P   11.19R    2.22  
Watford          11   14   -3      53.30    12.53   -21.93     0.02     0.18     4.26     0.82P   13.96R    3.20  
Sheff_Wed        11   13   +1      62.78    12.46     3.88     0.15     0.90    14.78     3.73P    2.93R    0.39  
Derby            11   13   -4      50.70    12.06   -23.27     0.01     0.09     2.39     0.44P   18.03R    4.36  
Doncaster        11   11   -2      55.77    12.31    -5.12     0.04     0.22     5.52     1.52P    8.77R    1.65  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -7      50.69    12.60   -24.05     0.02     0.12     2.79     0.53P   19.55R    5.22  
Barnsley         11   11   -8      43.28    11.38   -38.43     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.11P   39.11R   12.70  
Reading          11   10   -6      45.79    11.59   -23.51     0.00     0.02     0.98     0.22P   29.43R    8.65  
Plymouth         11    8   -9      41.44    11.41   -33.51     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.07P   44.87R   16.79  
Peterborough     11    7   -7      41.71    12.21   -32.04     0.00     0.02     0.60     0.13P   44.69R   18.15  
Ipswich          11    5  -12      39.73    12.21   -38.70     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P   50.94R   24.63  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Brentford vs Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     11   27  +13     100.14    11.15    51.29    46.63    71.55    97.34    80.83P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         11   24  +10      92.04    11.56    44.78    18.03    41.75    90.45    56.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   11   22   +4      74.51    12.68    11.70     1.97     6.31    44.94    13.38P    0.47R    0.01  
Colchester       11   21  +12      95.64    10.66    59.19    27.80    57.86    95.83    71.73P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          11   20   +3      74.39    12.07    13.62     1.12     4.39    44.05    14.24P    0.44R    0.00  
Swindon          11   18   -1      66.23    12.89    -0.87     0.37     1.68    22.55     5.40P    3.22R    0.13  
Norwich          11   16   +5      74.52    12.36    25.45     1.29     4.94    47.09    12.98P    0.66R    0.04  
Oldham           11   16   -1      58.23    12.16    -8.66     0.07     0.35     7.77     1.93P    8.90R    0.58  
Huddersfield     11   15   +5      74.75    12.55    26.39     1.68     6.09    47.37    15.72P    0.62R    0.03  
Millwall         11   14   +4      64.18    11.99     8.90     0.15     0.84    16.62     5.63P    2.92R    0.11  
Southend         11   14   +3      65.46    12.78     8.77     0.37     1.57    21.41     6.29P    3.06R    0.13  
Walsall          11   14   -3      55.95    11.72   -11.37     0.03     0.14     4.88     1.04P   11.82R    0.71  
Exeter           11   13   -2      56.33    11.99    -9.04     0.02     0.16     5.94     1.21P   11.57R    0.79  
Brentford        11   13   -3      55.42    11.96   -10.95     0.03     0.14     4.64     0.97P   13.34R    1.01  
Hartlepool       11   12   -2      59.95    12.55    -1.30     0.10     0.40    10.35     2.65P    7.71R    0.55  
Leyton_Orient    11   12   -7      49.18    11.94   -28.32     0.00     0.04     1.88     0.32P   28.56R    3.89  
Gillingham       10   11   +0      65.14    13.54     8.24     0.27     1.45    21.95     5.75P    4.75R    0.32  
Yeovil           11   11   -1      54.71    12.32    -7.11     0.03     0.16     5.21     1.32P   14.91R    1.22  
Carlisle         11   11   -3      46.05    11.73   -26.10     0.00     0.04     1.17     0.23P   38.07R    5.32  
Stockport        11   11   -4      49.33    11.81   -20.40     0.01     0.04     1.92     0.36P   27.29R    3.40  
Brighton         10    9   -8      40.07    11.96   -44.18     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.08P   59.72R   16.97  
Tranmere         11    7  -17      31.40    10.73   -69.37     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   84.13R   46.26  
Wycombe          11    6   -8      37.81    10.80   -32.54     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   65.65R   17.26  
Southampton      11    2   +1      56.18    12.32    11.89     0.02     0.11     6.02     1.88P   12.19R    1.27  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2009, Burton_Albion vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          11   25   +9      88.55    12.11    32.78    12.71    43.19    81.28    54.81P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            11   23   +8      86.30    11.84    33.98     8.86    35.66    77.18    46.08P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            11   21   +8      87.92    11.44    42.80     9.87    41.34    81.92    51.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet               11   21   +7      84.83    11.62    32.70     5.89    30.15    74.37    42.61P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           11   21   +6      81.46    11.96    28.01     4.12    21.51    63.91    30.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         11   20  +17     100.63     9.75    86.22    52.57    84.67    98.44    89.74P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             11   20   +8      79.67    12.30    27.78     3.65    19.04    58.63    29.37P    0.02R    0.00  
Aldershot            11   18   +6      68.10    12.69     8.13     0.51     4.36    24.79     9.04P    0.14R    0.00  
Bradford             11   17   +0      73.77    12.38    15.92     0.97     8.51    38.77    14.62P    0.07R    0.00  
Chesterfield         11   17   -1      65.17    11.98    -1.08     0.11     1.80    15.46     4.48P    0.28R    0.01  
Bury                 11   16   -3      49.12    11.61   -29.64     0.00     0.07     1.77     0.38P    5.83R    0.31  
Burton_Albion        11   15   +1      71.36    12.25    15.11     0.49     5.23    31.92    11.65P    0.12R    0.00  
Cheltenham           11   14   -2      60.01    12.15    -7.05     0.05     0.78     8.53     2.34P    0.96R    0.05  
Accrington_Stanley   11   13   -5      47.80    11.40   -32.80     0.00     0.05     1.10     0.24P    8.36R    0.47  
Macclesfield         11   13   -6      54.20    12.01   -19.42     0.01     0.24     3.57     0.83P    3.35R    0.18  
Port_Vale            11   12   +0      56.91    12.21    -4.14     0.04     0.55     5.96     1.92P    1.75R    0.08  
Crewe                11   12   -2      50.48    11.63   -24.16     0.01     0.12     1.94     0.43P    5.06R    0.27  
Lincoln_City         11   12   -8      46.94    11.57   -28.58     0.00     0.03     0.80     0.18P   10.43R    0.66  
Northampton          11   11   -4      64.24    12.20     4.54     0.06     1.37    14.44     4.11P    0.58R    0.03  
Hereford             11   11   -4      50.35    11.86   -22.34     0.01     0.12     2.00     0.53P    5.38R    0.35  
Morecambe            11   11   -4      62.80    12.42     1.68     0.06     1.16    12.20     3.56P    0.94R    0.08  
Grimsby              11   10  -11      34.28     9.77   -60.83     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   49.96R    5.79  
Torquay              11    8   -6      47.78    11.83   -22.17     0.00     0.04     0.97     0.21P    9.17R    0.93  
Darlington           11    2  -14      15.81     7.26   -77.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.60R   90.77  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2009, Histon vs Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         15   36  +19     102.96     8.96    61.76    73.18    98.48    80.88P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          15   30  +11      87.82     9.80    35.33     8.74    75.67    27.01P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          14   27  +10      85.97    10.33    33.49     7.08    68.76    24.66P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          15   26   +7      73.34    10.28    14.36     0.46    22.98     4.31P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              14   25   +5      79.72    10.52    22.50     2.10    44.77    11.11P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      15   24   +6      71.53    10.05    14.07     0.40    17.28     3.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham         15   24   +4      71.08    10.09    11.58     0.33    16.17     3.85P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      14   23  +10      83.77     9.97    38.15     4.56    62.58    21.12P    0.00     0.00  
York               13   23   +8      78.82    10.87    24.88     2.05    42.65    11.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           14   22   +4      72.06    10.50    13.89     0.52    19.99     4.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       15   22   -6      59.77    10.22   -12.77     0.01     2.18     0.28P    0.48R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd      15   21  +10      72.57    10.06    25.55     0.52    21.37     5.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   15   20   +4      61.40     9.91     1.37     0.02     2.99     0.60P    0.25R    0.01  
Histon             15   18   -4      54.59     9.64   -14.54     0.00     0.56     0.07P    1.55R    0.06  
Eastbourne_Boro    15   16   -8      47.08     9.57   -25.87     0.00     0.09     0.00P    7.79R    0.38  
Salisbury          15   14   +1      53.11     9.79    -5.13     0.00     0.45     0.08P    2.01R    0.06  
Wrexham            13   14   +0      58.89    11.15     0.50     0.03     2.88     0.75P    1.11R    0.04  
Barrow             15   14  -12      46.76     9.57   -27.85     0.00     0.05     0.01P    9.32R    0.69  
Grays_Athletic     14   11   -9      44.08     9.78   -29.45     0.00     0.03     0.00P   15.74R    1.65  
Forest_Green       15   11  -16      34.54     8.50   -46.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.42R    7.31  
Gateshead          14    9  -12      44.61    10.26   -27.88     0.00     0.07     0.01P   15.96R    1.53  
Ebbsfleet_United   15    9  -15      32.06     8.23   -44.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.30R   12.85  
Hayes_&_Yeading    14    8  -10      36.75     9.54   -40.32     0.00     0.01     0.00P   40.45R    5.90  
Chester            14  -13   -7      20.01     9.69   -22.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.59R   69.51  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25