Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 4 October 2009 at 21:02:01 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2009, Arsenal vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea          8   21  +12      84.49    10.33    52.55    24.57    43.59    60.92    76.04    94.25     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          8   19  +11      85.71     9.58    64.22    25.97    49.10    67.79    81.45    96.12     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        8   16   +7      74.83    11.04    43.74     5.22    14.34    26.77    42.55    76.21     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          7   15  +14      83.41    11.19    78.16    23.19    43.25    59.47    72.28    91.09     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        8   15  +10      76.33    10.67    54.34     7.46    18.74    32.49    48.72    81.85     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City         6   15   +7      77.55    12.59    42.64    10.96    23.89    38.06    52.07    78.48     0.02R    0.00  
Sunderland       8   13   +3      57.62    11.50     3.59     0.12     0.73     2.08     5.00    20.31     0.66R    0.06  
Aston_Villa      6   12   +4      64.67    13.99    17.20     2.47     6.13    11.55    19.18    42.55     0.56R    0.07  
Burnley          8   12   -9      44.30    10.89   -27.48     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.27     2.04     8.95R    1.40  
Everton          7   10   -2      40.72    11.63   -34.99     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.40     2.30    16.78R    2.97  
Stoke            8    9   -4      44.24    11.29   -14.11     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.38     2.66     8.74R    1.39  
Wigan            8    9   -7      41.48    10.79   -26.32     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.17     1.47    12.79R    2.09  
Bolton           7    8   -1      45.45    11.83   -17.68     0.02     0.08     0.25     0.62     3.86     8.65R    1.39  
Birmingham       8    7   -3      38.92    11.19   -16.24     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.13     1.03    19.02R    3.99  
Fulham           7    7   -4      39.21    11.75   -25.32     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.20     1.57    20.41R    4.00  
Blackburn        7    7   -7      39.90    11.45   -30.07     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.20     1.54    18.54R    3.90  
Wolverhampton    8    7   -7      28.18     9.30   -53.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07    58.89R   20.99  
Hull             8    7  -12      33.10     9.82   -49.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14    37.92R   10.84  
West_Ham         7    5   -3      42.75    11.64   -15.26     0.00     0.04     0.12     0.34     2.43    11.62R    2.12  
Portsmouth       8    3   -9      23.11     8.89   -46.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    76.43R   44.78  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Barnsley vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        11   24  +13     103.03    10.30    63.03    65.09    84.50    98.80    90.19P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        11   21  +10      87.28    12.11    41.62    10.95    32.93    81.41    46.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    11   20   +6      79.34    12.63    25.54     3.99    13.65    60.24    24.29P    0.13R    0.01  
Cardiff          11   19  +12      89.30    11.79    53.17    13.80    40.47    86.06    54.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston          11   19   +6      72.63    13.04    15.28     1.59     5.81    39.45    13.38P    0.50R    0.05  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +4      69.58    12.52    11.62     0.72     3.09    30.38     8.59P    0.87R    0.09  
Leicester        11   17   +2      69.05    12.48     9.18     0.52     2.87    28.05     9.05P    0.81R    0.07  
Bristol_City     11   17   +1      71.80    12.86    12.31     0.84     4.21    36.35    13.13P    0.64R    0.04  
Blackpool        11   16   +1      69.38    13.28     9.91     0.73     3.51    30.54     9.73P    1.26R    0.15  
Nottm_Forest     11   16   +1      59.00    11.80    -5.56     0.05     0.34     8.20     1.94P    4.24R    0.56  
Coventry         11   16   +0      62.12    12.71    -4.21     0.20     1.03    13.35     3.19P    3.93R    0.72  
Crystal_Palace   10   15   +0      61.65    13.01    -3.14     0.17     0.95    13.89     3.83P    4.01R    0.52  
QPR              10   14   +3      71.12    13.72    15.88     1.15     5.01    36.08    13.04P    1.01R    0.12  
Swansea          11   14   -2      54.09    12.15    -9.57     0.02     0.16     4.02     1.07P   11.02R    2.01  
Watford          11   14   -3      53.92    12.64   -20.31     0.03     0.24     4.77     0.99P   13.19R    3.04  
Sheff_Wed        11   13   +1      62.93    12.49     4.13     0.11     0.86    15.38     3.96P    2.83R    0.37  
Derby            11   13   -4      50.74    12.02   -23.25     0.02     0.07     2.40     0.46P   18.02R    4.16  
Doncaster        11   11   -2      55.41    12.30    -5.65     0.02     0.18     5.22     1.34P    9.27R    1.85  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -7      50.32    12.41   -24.75     0.01     0.07     2.45     0.46P   20.31R    5.53  
Barnsley         11   11   -8      43.31    11.37   -38.46     0.00     0.02     0.49     0.09P   39.23R   13.40  
Reading          11   10   -6      45.99    11.82   -23.31     0.00     0.02     1.02     0.18P   29.64R    8.77  
Plymouth         11    8   -9      42.02    11.64   -32.63     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.10P   43.14R   16.08  
Peterborough     11    7   -7      41.43    11.98   -32.40     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.08P   45.24R   18.49  
Ipswich          11    5  -12      39.88    12.12   -38.42     0.00     0.01     0.44     0.08P   50.70R   23.94  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2009, Brentford vs Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     11   27  +13     100.16    11.28    51.28    46.40    71.70    97.22    81.02P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         11   24  +10      91.79    11.71    44.34    17.48    41.28    89.75    55.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   11   22   +4      74.74    12.45    12.24     1.99     6.57    45.53    13.48P    0.37R    0.00  
Colchester       11   21  +12      95.57    10.76    58.97    28.10    57.40    95.61    71.39P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          11   20   +3      74.25    12.21    13.35     1.18     4.50    43.60    14.06P    0.44R    0.02  
Swindon          11   18   -1      66.10    12.73    -0.95     0.34     1.51    21.88     5.08P    3.09R    0.17  
Norwich          11   16   +5      74.02    12.42    24.43     1.25     4.42    44.59    12.36P    0.66R    0.02  
Oldham           11   16   -1      57.40    12.15   -10.01     0.06     0.27     6.93     1.59P   10.29R    0.70  
Huddersfield     11   15   +5      75.23    12.64    27.33     2.20     7.08    48.83    17.17P    0.54R    0.02  
Millwall         11   14   +4      64.40    11.94     9.11     0.19     0.95    17.01     5.75P    2.78R    0.12  
Southend         11   14   +3      66.01    12.84     9.92     0.36     1.80    22.69     6.76P    2.95R    0.13  
Walsall          11   14   -3      56.37    11.89   -10.77     0.02     0.13     5.66     1.10P   11.42R    0.54  
Exeter           11   13   -2      56.21    12.14    -9.33     0.02     0.11     5.91     1.20P   12.41R    0.80  
Brentford        11   13   -3      55.55    12.04   -10.85     0.04     0.15     4.94     1.03P   13.15R    1.04  
Hartlepool       11   12   -2      59.50    12.63    -1.91     0.07     0.37    10.03     2.46P    8.28R    0.61  
Leyton_Orient    11   12   -7      49.17    11.94   -28.26     0.01     0.05     1.87     0.33P   28.59R    3.69  
Gillingham       10   11   +0      65.18    13.35     8.43     0.24     1.33    21.83     5.47P    4.43R    0.24  
Yeovil           11   11   -1      54.46    12.41    -7.45     0.03     0.13     5.01     1.29P   15.45R    1.42  
Carlisle         11   11   -3      46.40    11.73   -25.42     0.00     0.04     1.31     0.27P   36.58R    4.96  
Stockport        11   11   -4      49.71    11.95   -19.79     0.01     0.07     2.25     0.43P   26.50R    3.17  
Brighton         10    9   -8      40.16    12.13   -44.14     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.11P   59.31R   16.37  
Tranmere         11    7  -17      31.08    10.54   -70.54     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00    84.94R   47.11  
Wycombe          11    6   -8      37.85    10.96   -32.48     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   65.53R   17.55  
Southampton      11    2   +1      56.49    12.66    12.51     0.01     0.14     6.79     2.28P   12.30R    1.32  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2009, Burton_Albion vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          11   25   +9      89.29    11.87    33.88    14.25    45.01    82.88    56.62P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            11   23   +8      86.19    11.75    33.98     8.90    34.79    76.97    45.07P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            11   21   +8      87.89    11.67    42.58    10.03    41.25    81.44    51.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet               11   21   +7      84.79    11.74    32.54     5.83    29.80    73.95    42.38P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           11   21   +6      82.05    12.00    29.05     4.67    22.63    65.60    32.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         11   20  +17     100.12     9.87    85.16    49.92    83.26    98.05    88.66P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             11   20   +8      80.03    12.37    28.38     4.07    19.76    59.06    29.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Aldershot            11   18   +6      67.84    12.79     7.68     0.46     4.26    24.31     8.90P    0.13R    0.00  
Bradford             11   17   +0      73.48    12.54    15.41     0.91     8.07    38.01    14.16P    0.08R    0.00  
Chesterfield         11   17   -1      65.56    12.01    -0.38     0.16     1.79    16.12     4.59P    0.22R    0.00  
Bury                 11   16   -3      49.07    11.59   -29.29     0.01     0.09     1.74     0.44P    5.70R    0.26  
Burton_Albion        11   15   +1      71.61    12.18    15.39     0.57     5.25    31.96    11.49P    0.14R    0.00  
Cheltenham           11   14   -2      59.51    11.84    -7.96     0.02     0.54     7.22     1.77P    1.06R    0.04  
Accrington_Stanley   11   13   -5      48.17    11.34   -32.19     0.00     0.06     1.07     0.22P    7.92R    0.51  
Macclesfield         11   13   -6      53.65    12.10   -20.37     0.00     0.17     3.16     0.70P    3.98R    0.27  
Port_Vale            11   12   +0      56.36    12.21    -4.91     0.04     0.40     5.47     1.76P    1.72R    0.05  
Crewe                11   12   -2      50.43    11.67   -24.13     0.01     0.10     1.90     0.39P    5.12R    0.33  
Lincoln_City         11   12   -8      46.70    11.53   -28.95     0.00     0.01     0.83     0.14P   10.59R    0.68  
Northampton          11   11   -4      64.78    12.32     5.63     0.11     1.63    15.61     4.59P    0.57R    0.03  
Hereford             11   11   -4      50.00    11.69   -23.13     0.00     0.08     1.74     0.39P    5.44R    0.38  
Morecambe            11   11   -4      62.49    12.43     1.13     0.04     0.99    11.77     3.26P    0.99R    0.05  
Grimsby              11   10  -11      34.30     9.87   -60.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   49.84R    5.92  
Torquay              11    8   -6      48.05    11.91   -21.73     0.00     0.07     1.10     0.28P    8.87R    0.90  
Darlington           11    2  -14      16.03     7.22   -76.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.59R   90.58  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2009, Histon vs Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         15   36  +19     103.02     8.84    62.21    73.49    98.66    81.21P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          15   30  +11      87.51     9.71    34.83     8.02    74.89    26.39P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          14   27  +10      86.23    10.28    33.96     7.35    69.43    25.12P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          15   26   +7      73.02    10.14    13.86     0.47    21.77     3.90P    0.01R    0.00  
Luton              14   25   +5      79.75    10.68    22.58     2.07    45.11    11.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster      15   24   +6      71.20    10.10    13.52     0.36    16.99     3.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham         15   24   +4      71.22    10.22    11.72     0.36    17.06     4.01P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      14   23  +10      83.67    10.06    38.01     4.53    61.99    20.96P    0.00     0.00  
York               13   23   +8      78.72    10.95    24.80     2.12    42.05    11.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           14   22   +4      72.49    10.52    14.51     0.63    20.82     4.83P    0.02R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       15   22   -6      59.47    10.04   -13.25     0.01     1.84     0.23P    0.44R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd      15   21  +10      73.03     9.99    26.34     0.55    22.36     5.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   15   20   +4      61.44    10.05     1.28     0.02     3.24     0.57P    0.22R    0.00  
Histon             15   18   -4      54.67     9.75   -14.48     0.00     0.70     0.10P    1.55R    0.03  
Eastbourne_Boro    15   16   -8      47.38     9.33   -25.33     0.00     0.06     0.01P    7.06R    0.34  
Salisbury          15   14   +1      53.78     9.77    -4.02     0.00     0.49     0.11P    1.82R    0.08  
Wrexham            13   14   +0      57.86    11.11    -0.86     0.02     2.38     0.57P    1.35R    0.07  
Barrow             15   14  -12      46.88     9.69   -27.88     0.00     0.06     0.01P    9.46R    0.62  
Grays_Athletic     14   11   -9      44.27     9.73   -29.35     0.00     0.02     0.00P   14.96R    1.49  
Forest_Green       15   11  -16      34.19     8.43   -47.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.99R    7.84  
Gateshead          14    9  -12      44.93    10.15   -27.53     0.00     0.06     0.01P   14.39R    1.26  
Ebbsfleet_United   15    9  -15      31.56     8.10   -45.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.84R   14.35  
Hayes_&_Yeading    14    8  -10      36.75     9.51   -40.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.15R    5.68  
Chester            14  -13   -7      20.18     9.91   -22.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.72R   68.24  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25