Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 2 October 2009 at 21:01:56 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 September 2009, Man_City vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          7   18  +11      94.16     8.66    96.15    52.91    76.86    88.87    94.79    99.34     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          7   18  +10      78.80    11.64    45.37     8.03    20.03    35.73    53.20    83.70     0.01R    0.00  
Liverpool        7   15  +12      77.09    11.11    59.30     5.79    16.27    30.73    48.26    82.15     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        7   15   +7      79.28    11.00    57.52     6.79    20.69    37.06    55.67    85.87     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City         6   15   +7      79.65    12.14    50.35     7.89    22.10    39.85    55.57    83.51     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal          6   12  +10      84.46    11.56    81.85    17.28    39.67    57.56    71.09    91.47     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa      6   12   +4      64.89    13.58    18.24     1.27     4.03     8.76    16.73    42.22     0.36R    0.03  
Sunderland       7   12   +3      48.90    11.70   -24.97     0.02     0.13     0.44     1.18     6.89     3.62R    0.31  
Everton          6    9   -2      41.24    12.97   -43.76     0.00     0.05     0.22     0.75     3.76    17.85R    2.27  
Wigan            7    9   -6      46.27    11.60   -19.27     0.00     0.04     0.15     0.58     4.06     6.04R    0.55  
Burnley          7    9  -10      40.02    10.58   -30.63     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.08     1.09    14.30R    1.60  
Stoke            7    8   -4      43.73    11.85   -15.69     0.00     0.04     0.13     0.41     2.90     9.42R    1.12  
Bolton           6    7   -1      40.76    11.86   -33.80     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.27     2.10    16.04R    1.99  
Birmingham       7    7   -2      42.78    11.64    -9.71     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.34     2.71     9.73R    0.87  
Blackburn        6    7   -3      38.77    11.26   -31.51     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.15     1.24    18.93R    2.88  
Wolverhampton    7    7   -6      33.56    10.30   -49.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.35    34.00R    6.89  
Fulham           6    6   -4      36.66    11.85   -28.97     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.18     1.26    26.11R    3.50  
West_Ham         6    4   -3      46.57    12.52    -8.08     0.01     0.05     0.19     0.70     5.23     7.12R    0.99  
Hull             7    4  -13      29.60    10.21   -55.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14    49.73R   15.20  
Portsmouth       7    0  -10      18.54     8.72   -57.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    86.71R   61.81  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 September 2009, Newcastle vs QPR; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        10   23  +13     105.91    10.64    70.08    71.90    87.63    98.81    91.76P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        10   20  +10      86.71    12.86    41.50     8.68    30.26    75.95    41.26P    0.02R    0.00  
Preston          10   18   +6      70.78    13.68    10.91     1.29     5.40    32.00    10.72P    0.71R    0.05  
Middlesbrough    10   17   +4      74.94    13.61    18.55     2.08     8.04    43.17    15.99P    0.41R    0.03  
Cardiff          10   16   +8      84.09    13.22    41.97     5.92    23.28    70.16    36.09P    0.06R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd        10   16   +4      71.09    13.19    13.23     0.98     4.54    32.01    10.29P    0.73R    0.09  
Blackpool        10   16   +4      78.80    13.33    25.15     2.83    12.24    54.75    24.56P    0.17R    0.00  
Leicester        10   16   +2      70.52    12.97    10.67     0.63     3.60    29.50    10.15P    0.57R    0.04  
Bristol_City     10   16   +1      68.29    13.39     6.68     0.55     2.73    24.45     8.21P    1.10R    0.11  
Coventry         10   15   +0      63.29    13.50    -3.30     0.30     1.51    15.01     4.09P    3.08R    0.44  
QPR               9   14   +5      79.39    14.22    28.80     3.72    14.67    56.37    27.36P    0.21R    0.02  
Watford          10   14   +1      61.24    13.84    -5.86     0.24     1.34    13.03     3.53P    4.48R    0.76  
Sheff_Wed        10   13   +4      69.97    13.42    16.77     0.68     3.71    30.18    10.04P    0.83R    0.07  
Nottm_Forest     10   13   +0      59.17    12.50    -3.66     0.07     0.40     7.92     2.11P    4.18R    0.66  
Crystal_Palace    9   12   -3      50.50    12.69   -17.98     0.03     0.11     2.82     0.73P   15.32R    3.09  
Swansea          10   11   -4      45.59    11.62   -20.18     0.01     0.03     0.75     0.20P   26.12R    6.71  
Scunthorpe       10   11   -6      51.70    13.29   -24.99     0.03     0.16     3.50     0.63P   15.87R    4.19  
Doncaster        10   10   -2      54.29    12.62    -8.03     0.03     0.19     4.10     1.17P    9.30R    1.91  
Reading          10   10   -4      50.47    12.91   -16.78     0.02     0.11     2.72     0.63P   16.49R    4.04  
Derby            10   10   -7      41.70    12.16   -43.08     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.10P   41.21R   14.53  
Barnsley         10    8   -9      41.25    11.88   -40.63     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.06P   41.84R   15.63  
Peterborough     10    7   -6      44.95    12.67   -27.52     0.00     0.02     0.90     0.16P   30.01R    9.79  
Plymouth         10    5  -10      39.28    12.09   -35.92     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P   47.76R   20.33  
Ipswich          10    5  -11      42.20    13.10   -36.40     0.00     0.01     0.62     0.09P   39.54R   17.51  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 September 2009, Brentford vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     10   26  +13     103.72    11.60    58.60    53.21    76.01    98.08    83.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Charlton         10   23  +10      91.23    12.72    43.83    13.99    34.57    87.04    48.58P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   10   22   +8      81.68    13.57    24.69     5.15    15.06    65.08    26.54P    0.16R    0.00  
Colchester       10   18  +11      96.20    11.42    64.57    22.84    54.18    94.83    69.21P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons          10   17   +2      72.93    13.31    12.81     0.79     3.54    40.05    12.94P    0.86R    0.02  
Huddersfield     10   15   +6      73.53    14.00    21.96     1.83     6.22    43.72    14.28P    1.14R    0.06  
Oldham           10   15   -1      58.46    13.27   -10.99     0.09     0.50     9.81     2.33P    9.99R    1.13  
Swindon          10   15   -2      61.03    13.30    -7.23     0.11     0.55    12.90     2.81P    7.33R    0.75  
Norwich          10   13   +1      68.82    13.55    11.58     0.36     1.76    30.00     6.63P    2.71R    0.29  
Brentford        10   13   -2      57.05    12.49    -8.71     0.04     0.20     7.28     1.69P   10.12R    0.86  
Walsall          10   13   -3      58.66    12.77    -7.38     0.03     0.23     8.69     1.85P    9.16R    0.89  
Hartlepool       10   12   +0      66.96    13.14     9.55     0.26     1.26    24.03     6.86P    2.71R    0.22  
Gillingham        9   11   +3      72.66    14.88    22.68     1.19     4.88    42.09    13.78P    2.15R    0.17  
Southend         10   11   +1      58.57    13.45    -3.03     0.05     0.49    10.57     2.67P    9.98R    1.21  
Millwall         10   11   -1      53.22    12.05    -7.08     0.01     0.07     3.76     1.13P   15.17R    1.78  
Stockport        10   11   -2      55.66    12.96   -10.10     0.02     0.22     6.69     1.49P   13.23R    1.58  
Yeovil           10   10   -1      53.59    12.91   -10.66     0.01     0.11     5.14     1.09P   16.92R    2.55  
Carlisle         10   10   -3      44.52    12.43   -28.76     0.00     0.03     1.41     0.29P   42.03R    9.87  
Exeter           10   10   -4      50.77    12.61   -16.72     0.00     0.05     3.14     0.57P   23.41R    3.60  
Brighton          9    9   -7      41.79    12.86   -45.59     0.00     0.03     0.87     0.14P   52.07R   18.16  
Leyton_Orient    10    9   -8      43.58    12.17   -39.20     0.00     0.01     0.88     0.13P   45.29R   12.82  
Tranmere         10    7  -12      38.71    12.20   -47.59     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.03P   61.65R   24.68  
Wycombe          10    6   -7      43.45    12.24   -26.31     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.17P   45.05R   12.08  
Southampton      10   -1   -2      48.61    13.52    -0.92     0.01     0.03     2.72     0.82P   28.82R    7.27  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 September 2009, Chesterfield vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          10   24   +9      89.39    12.89    34.24    12.82    42.54    80.62    53.35P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             10   20   +9      82.35    13.34    31.14     5.45    24.83    64.02    35.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            10   20   +8      90.74    12.13    48.05    12.17    47.62    85.33    57.74P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            10   20   +7      84.18    12.67    31.18     5.78    26.83    69.18    38.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           10   20   +6      82.04    12.61    28.50     4.04    21.73    63.26    30.84P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         10   19  +17     102.54    10.46    91.43    53.02    84.67    98.19    89.19P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            10   18   +7      73.01    13.50    15.05     1.54     9.19    36.98    15.96P    0.06R    0.00  
Barnet               10   18   +4      83.09    12.66    30.09     3.77    24.09    67.02    35.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford             10   16   +0      72.46    13.25    12.30     0.70     7.19    34.79    13.02P    0.13R    0.01  
Bury                 10   15   -3      47.20    11.87   -33.94     0.01     0.08     1.35     0.34P    8.16R    0.62  
Chesterfield         10   14   -2      65.80    12.88     1.22     0.11     2.10    17.84     5.23P    0.43R    0.03  
Cheltenham           10   13   -2      57.37    12.75   -13.81     0.06     0.56     6.55     1.75P    1.76R    0.09  
Accrington_Stanley   10   13   -4      48.62    12.25   -35.60     0.01     0.11     1.66     0.37P    8.00R    0.61  
Burton_Albion        10   12   +0      69.15    13.08    13.17     0.26     3.92    26.12     9.33P    0.23R    0.01  
Crewe                10   12   -1      53.15    12.51   -19.33     0.04     0.29     3.66     1.01P    3.56R    0.22  
Port_Vale            10   11   +0      56.03    12.65    -6.49     0.02     0.44     5.45     1.76P    1.99R    0.11  
Northampton          10   10   -4      65.08    13.21     5.34     0.13     2.03    17.00     5.21P    0.82R    0.10  
Hereford             10   10   -4      48.73    12.10   -27.02     0.01     0.12     1.62     0.40P    7.02R    0.70  
Morecambe            10   10   -4      62.59    13.17     0.48     0.08     1.34    12.83     3.76P    1.00R    0.10  
Macclesfield         10   10   -7      53.24    12.94   -20.08     0.01     0.22     3.88     0.97P    5.11R    0.52  
Grimsby              10   10   -8      36.28    10.77   -57.60     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   39.86R    5.69  
Lincoln_City         10    9   -9      42.36    11.73   -34.81     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.07P   19.53R    2.17  
Torquay              10    7   -6      51.29    12.71   -16.72     0.00     0.08     2.19     0.51P    6.19R    0.81  
Darlington           10    2  -13      16.87     7.75   -76.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.11R   88.19  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 September 2009, Altrincham vs Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         14   35  +19     105.71     9.18    66.94    77.40    98.98    84.27P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          14   27  +10      85.57    10.29    33.71     4.47    67.13    20.41P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          13   26  +10      86.15    10.63    33.58     5.55    68.06    23.51P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      13   23  +11      88.41    10.22    46.41     7.97    77.00    28.81P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          14   23   +6      73.04    10.47    16.16     0.42    22.51     4.00P    0.01R    0.00  
York               12   22   +8      79.33    11.31    25.35     1.68    44.32    12.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           13   22   +5      73.76    10.96    15.75     0.68    25.41     5.90P    0.02R    0.00  
Luton              13   22   +4      77.25    11.16    20.34     0.93    36.07     8.16P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster      14   21   +5      66.47    10.55     7.40     0.12     8.96     1.84P    0.08R    0.00  
Altrincham         14   21   +3      66.76    10.47     6.72     0.08     8.50     1.81P    0.07R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       14   21   -6      61.34    10.63   -11.11     0.02     3.38     0.43P    0.46R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd      14   20  +10      73.85    10.57    27.38     0.57    26.06     6.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   14   20   +5      64.75    10.33     5.82     0.07     6.28     1.10P    0.11R    0.00  
Histon             14   17   -4      54.45    10.19   -15.27     0.00     0.73     0.07P    1.97R    0.07  
Eastbourne_Boro    14   16   -7      48.55     9.86   -25.09     0.00     0.18     0.02P    6.67R    0.31  
Wrexham            12   14   +1      62.16    12.03     4.59     0.05     5.94     1.50P    0.81R    0.02  
Barrow             14   13  -12      44.15     9.86   -33.88     0.00     0.03     0.01P   16.44R    1.46  
Salisbury          14   11   +0      49.82     9.99    -8.24     0.00     0.20     0.02P    5.10R    0.28  
Forest_Green       14   11  -15      34.26     8.68   -50.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.46R    8.10  
Grays_Athletic     13   10   -9      46.16    10.46   -27.92     0.00     0.15     0.02P   12.86R    1.29  
Gateshead          13    8  -12      45.65    10.81   -28.40     0.00     0.09     0.01P   15.28R    1.34  
Ebbsfleet_United   14    8  -15      32.39     8.72   -45.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.03R   12.88  
Hayes_&_Yeading    13    7  -10      38.23    10.09   -39.85     0.00     0.01     0.00    35.44R    6.10  
Chester            13  -14   -7      19.95    10.41   -24.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.15R   68.14  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25