Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 30 September 2009 at 21:01:55 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 September 2009, Man_City vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          7   18  +11      94.28     8.75    96.90    54.21    77.16    88.64    94.43    99.13     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          7   18  +10      78.37    11.44    44.48     7.19    18.60    33.54    50.99    82.46     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        7   15  +12      76.94    10.97    58.61     5.88    15.61    29.20    46.50    81.46     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        7   15   +7      79.01    10.85    56.65     5.73    18.81    35.23    54.15    85.38     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City         6   15   +7      80.38    12.18    52.58     9.05    24.31    42.62    57.61    84.07     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          6   12  +10      84.93    10.97    82.73    16.49    40.63    59.43    73.23    92.50     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa      6   12   +4      66.10    13.51    20.35     1.42     4.53     9.87    18.41    45.21     0.31R    0.01  
Sunderland       7   12   +3      48.16    11.30   -27.31     0.01     0.11     0.35     0.98     5.33     3.50R    0.31  
Everton          6    9   -2      41.18    12.65   -44.39     0.01     0.06     0.21     0.69     3.34    16.80R    2.07  
Wigan            7    9   -6      47.67    11.58   -16.92     0.00     0.04     0.18     0.66     4.78     4.49R    0.41  
Burnley          7    9  -10      39.78    10.73   -31.27     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.14     1.17    14.84R    1.85  
Stoke            7    8   -4      43.16    11.63   -16.75     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.35     2.43     9.69R    1.10  
Bolton           6    7   -1      39.90    12.17   -35.66     0.01     0.04     0.14     0.35     2.08    18.11R    2.48  
Birmingham       7    7   -2      42.49    11.81    -9.87     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.38     2.62    10.45R    0.96  
Blackburn        6    7   -3      39.22    11.51   -30.73     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.22     1.49    18.07R    2.67  
Wolverhampton    7    7   -6      34.13    10.28   -48.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.28    31.58R    6.33  
Fulham           6    6   -4      36.07    11.67   -29.52     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.15     1.01    26.88R    4.13  
West_Ham         6    4   -3      46.41    12.79    -8.15     0.00     0.03     0.17     0.72     5.19     7.77R    1.28  
Hull             7    4  -13      28.95     9.79   -56.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    52.27R   15.37  
Portsmouth       7    0  -10      18.74     8.97   -56.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.21R   61.05  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 September 2009, Newcastle vs QPR; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle        10   23  +13     105.79    10.74    69.99    71.45    87.27    98.64    91.39P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        10   20  +10      86.85    13.16    41.54     9.13    30.83    75.74    42.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Preston          10   18   +6      70.88    13.59    11.03     1.18     5.30    31.92    10.58P    0.65R    0.07  
Middlesbrough    10   17   +4      75.75    13.40    19.88     2.35     8.75    44.81    17.04P    0.25R    0.03  
Cardiff          10   16   +8      84.51    13.13    42.46     6.16    24.21    71.29    37.27P    0.05R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd        10   16   +4      71.28    13.07    13.55     1.05     4.25    31.73     9.95P    0.53R    0.05  
Blackpool        10   16   +4      78.73    13.13    25.08     2.60    11.48    54.44    23.61P    0.15R    0.02  
Leicester        10   16   +2      70.11    12.76    10.07     0.58     3.13    27.70     9.02P    0.50R    0.04  
Bristol_City     10   16   +1      68.27    13.50     6.65     0.63     2.91    24.36     8.32P    1.07R    0.13  
Coventry         10   15   +0      63.25    13.31    -3.40     0.26     1.36    14.21     3.75P    2.82R    0.38  
QPR               9   14   +5      79.61    13.96    29.04     3.58    14.28    57.26    27.33P    0.18R    0.01  
Watford          10   14   +1      60.47    13.71    -7.36     0.21     1.08    11.69     2.86P    4.98R    0.80  
Sheff_Wed        10   13   +4      70.64    13.38    18.01     0.66     4.05    31.85    10.88P    0.64R    0.08  
Nottm_Forest     10   13   +0      59.41    12.61    -3.46     0.07     0.42     8.26     2.22P    3.83R    0.55  
Crystal_Palace    9   12   -3      50.33    12.67   -18.56     0.02     0.09     2.53     0.61P   15.71R    3.09  
Swansea          10   11   -4      45.51    11.81   -20.07     0.00     0.03     0.80     0.21P   26.54R    7.11  
Scunthorpe       10   11   -6      52.16    13.13   -23.98     0.02     0.19     3.30     0.66P   14.64R    3.63  
Doncaster        10   10   -2      54.40    12.55    -7.87     0.02     0.17     4.10     1.06P    8.97R    1.80  
Reading          10   10   -4      50.48    13.22   -16.93     0.02     0.14     2.93     0.69P   16.96R    4.21  
Derby            10   10   -7      41.89    11.78   -42.79     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.06P   39.21R   13.24  
Barnsley         10    8   -9      41.73    11.97   -39.43     0.01     0.03     0.45     0.10P   39.73R   14.74  
Peterborough     10    7   -6      44.05    12.50   -29.00     0.00     0.01     0.78     0.14P   32.04R   10.57  
Plymouth         10    5  -10      37.85    12.04   -38.84     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P   52.27R   24.01  
Ipswich          10    5  -11      42.46    12.83   -35.62     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.09P   38.28R   15.43  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 September 2009, Brentford vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United     10   26  +13     103.41    11.41    58.16    52.03    75.16    98.14    83.35P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         10   23  +10      90.96    12.65    43.25    13.48    33.68    86.66    47.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   10   22   +8      83.03    13.59    26.87     6.54    17.48    68.83    29.54P    0.14R    0.01  
Colchester       10   18  +11      96.07    11.44    64.28    23.16    53.59    94.69    68.47P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          10   17   +2      72.54    13.23    12.18     0.76     3.35    38.79    12.19P    0.94R    0.04  
Huddersfield     10   15   +6      72.93    13.86    20.65     1.59     5.46    41.61    13.19P    1.23R    0.06  
Oldham           10   15   -1      58.91    13.55   -10.31     0.10     0.56    10.72     2.54P    9.93R    1.28  
Swindon          10   15   -2      60.49    13.22    -8.11     0.11     0.50    12.25     2.66P    7.43R    0.87  
Norwich          10   13   +1      68.79    13.60    11.56     0.38     1.85    29.90     6.90P    2.73R    0.21  
Brentford        10   13   -2      57.05    12.47    -8.77     0.02     0.16     6.91     1.41P   10.53R    1.10  
Walsall          10   13   -3      58.60    12.59    -7.54     0.04     0.29     8.25     1.92P    8.65R    0.69  
Hartlepool       10   12   +0      67.24    13.22    10.08     0.32     1.37    24.59     7.10P    2.60R    0.17  
Gillingham        9   11   +3      73.21    14.92    23.68     1.33     5.62    43.32    14.91P    2.10R    0.20  
Southend         10   11   +1      58.36    13.25    -3.41     0.05     0.41    10.12     2.49P    9.98R    1.12  
Millwall         10   11   -1      51.63    11.96    -9.12     0.01     0.08     2.91     0.86P   18.90R    2.51  
Stockport        10   11   -2      55.81    12.96    -9.70     0.03     0.19     6.81     1.51P   13.19R    1.62  
Yeovil           10   10   -1      53.66    12.94   -10.63     0.02     0.11     5.29     1.20P   17.15R    2.38  
Carlisle         10   10   -3      44.51    12.33   -28.76     0.01     0.04     1.13     0.21P   42.23R    9.73  
Exeter           10   10   -4      51.18    12.65   -16.03     0.00     0.04     3.10     0.60P   22.87R    3.50  
Brighton          9    9   -7      41.89    13.05   -45.70     0.00     0.01     1.02     0.17P   51.92R   18.27  
Leyton_Orient    10    9   -8      44.06    12.25   -38.14     0.00     0.02     1.03     0.17P   43.67R   12.08  
Tranmere         10    7  -12      38.85    12.27   -47.59     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.04P   60.79R   24.67  
Wycombe          10    6   -7      43.96    12.39   -25.60     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.16P   43.31R   11.66  
Southampton      10   -1   -2      48.35    13.53    -1.31     0.00     0.02     2.62     0.86P   29.70R    7.85  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 September 2009, Chesterfield vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth          10   24   +9      89.94    12.95    35.17    13.82    44.95    81.63    55.81P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             10   20   +9      82.32    13.35    31.28     5.71    24.80    63.45    34.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            10   20   +8      89.71    12.29    45.97    10.94    44.37    83.30    54.45P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            10   20   +7      84.95    12.78    32.42     6.86    29.47    71.41    41.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           10   20   +6      81.98    12.86    28.38     4.52    22.09    63.33    31.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         10   19  +17     101.94    10.60    89.47    51.43    83.64    97.92    88.45P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            10   18   +7      73.53    13.66    16.07     1.69    10.04    38.91    17.04P    0.04R    0.00  
Barnet               10   18   +4      82.73    12.72    29.35     3.76    23.04    65.94    34.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford             10   16   +0      71.74    13.25    11.06     0.59     6.24    32.72    11.81P    0.15R    0.02  
Bury                 10   15   -3      47.46    12.08   -33.48     0.01     0.12     1.51     0.38P    8.19R    0.57  
Chesterfield         10   14   -2      65.36    12.85     0.59     0.12     2.08    17.02     5.19P    0.47R    0.03  
Cheltenham           10   13   -2      57.93    12.68   -12.59     0.03     0.61     6.85     1.78P    1.57R    0.06  
Accrington_Stanley   10   13   -4      49.07    12.16   -34.46     0.01     0.12     1.80     0.40P    7.41R    0.55  
Burton_Albion        10   12   +0      69.18    13.03    13.21     0.26     3.78    26.31     9.29P    0.29R    0.02  
Crewe                10   12   -1      53.23    12.64   -19.00     0.01     0.26     3.82     0.95P    3.80R    0.29  
Port_Vale            10   11   +0      55.53    12.57    -7.38     0.01     0.42     4.95     1.49P    2.44R    0.14  
Northampton          10   10   -4      65.60    13.29     6.43     0.15     2.22    18.44     5.78P    0.69R    0.07  
Hereford             10   10   -4      48.95    12.43   -26.55     0.00     0.14     2.02     0.53P    7.33R    0.85  
Morecambe            10   10   -4      62.58    13.13     0.47     0.07     1.30    12.86     3.77P    1.11R    0.10  
Macclesfield         10   10   -7      52.96    12.62   -20.61     0.01     0.18     2.90     0.70P    5.26R    0.67  
Grimsby              10   10   -8      36.53    10.92   -56.99     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.04P   38.77R    5.43  
Lincoln_City         10    9   -9      42.37    11.96   -34.77     0.00     0.03     0.56     0.13P   19.89R    2.37  
Torquay              10    7   -6      50.82    12.83   -17.49     0.01     0.11     2.19     0.51P    6.86R    1.12  
Darlington           10    2  -13      17.01     7.84   -76.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.71R   87.72  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 September 2009, Altrincham vs Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         14   35  +19     105.84     8.98    67.07    77.86    99.15    84.64P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          14   27  +10      85.82    10.21    34.20     4.38    68.28    20.82P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          13   26  +10      85.97    10.55    33.23     5.12    67.75    22.91P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      13   23  +11      88.51    10.34    46.66     7.82    76.78    28.71P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          14   23   +6      72.90    10.54    16.01     0.38    21.59     3.79P    0.00R    0.00  
York               12   22   +8      79.50    11.23    25.62     1.70    44.40    12.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           13   22   +5      73.53    11.04    15.34     0.66    24.22     5.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Luton              13   22   +4      77.75    11.05    21.15     1.09    37.64     8.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster      14   21   +5      65.66    10.32     5.95     0.08     7.34     1.38P    0.07R    0.00  
Altrincham         14   21   +3      66.95    10.54     6.98     0.12     8.99     1.89P    0.07R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       14   21   -6      61.53    10.35   -10.84     0.01     3.20     0.36P    0.34R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd      14   20  +10      74.44    10.58    28.49     0.67    27.59     6.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   14   20   +5      64.64    10.29     5.64     0.04     6.02     1.00P    0.10R    0.00  
Histon             14   17   -4      53.91    10.08   -16.14     0.00     0.71     0.11P    2.22R    0.08  
Eastbourne_Boro    14   16   -7      48.48     9.96   -25.23     0.00     0.17     0.03P    7.21R    0.38  
Wrexham            12   14   +1      62.29    11.67     4.81     0.08     5.67     1.46P    0.64R    0.02  
Barrow             14   13  -12      44.59    10.16   -33.08     0.00     0.05     0.01P   16.01R    1.62  
Salisbury          14   11   +0      49.63    10.06    -8.55     0.00     0.22     0.03P    5.15R    0.28  
Forest_Green       14   11  -15      34.61     8.75   -49.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.80R    7.82  
Grays_Athletic     13   10   -9      46.53    10.41   -27.22     0.00     0.13     0.02P   11.88R    1.17  
Gateshead          13    8  -12      45.05    10.67   -29.35     0.00     0.09     0.01P   16.01R    1.61  
Ebbsfleet_United   14    8  -15      32.24     8.96   -45.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.43R   14.03  
Hayes_&_Yeading    13    7  -10      37.47     9.97   -41.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.16R    6.73  
Chester            13  -14   -7      20.36    10.68   -24.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.89R   66.27  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25