Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 28 September 2009 at 21:01:53 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 September 2009, Sunderland vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          7   18  +11      94.33     8.73    98.51    54.95    78.16    89.63    95.24    99.19     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          7   18  +10      78.09    11.50    44.11     7.18    18.62    33.43    51.44    82.54     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        7   15  +12      76.94    11.40    59.70     6.69    17.03    30.88    47.70    82.14     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham        7   15   +7      79.29    10.82    58.33     6.09    19.83    37.23    56.53    86.91     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          6   12  +10      84.15    11.67    81.67    15.45    39.30    58.29    72.10    91.06     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         5   12   +5      78.82    12.92    48.40     8.07    22.03    39.06    54.05    81.28     0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      6   12   +4      64.81    13.64    17.87     1.48     4.46     9.53    17.20    42.48     0.40R    0.01  
Sunderland       7   12   +3      48.63    11.54   -25.83     0.01     0.11     0.47     1.29     6.81     3.50R    0.27  
Everton          6    9   -2      41.15    12.63   -44.48     0.00     0.04     0.16     0.57     3.46    17.41R    2.11  
Wigan            7    9   -6      46.79    11.54   -18.39     0.00     0.03     0.17     0.67     4.37     5.39R    0.45  
Burnley          7    9  -10      40.72    10.74   -29.37     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.09     1.22    13.08R    1.48  
Stoke            7    8   -4      43.25    11.62   -16.00     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.37     2.79     9.88R    0.97  
Bolton           6    7   -1      40.53    12.27   -33.76     0.01     0.04     0.13     0.35     2.48    17.17R    2.59  
Birmingham       7    7   -2      43.29    11.64    -8.70     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.37     2.79     8.97R    0.68  
Blackburn        6    7   -3      39.27    11.49   -31.60     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.21     1.48    18.31R    2.82  
Wolverhampton    7    7   -6      33.20    10.40   -51.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.26    35.65R    7.53  
Fulham           6    6   -4      35.86    11.33   -30.11     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.05     0.88    27.47R    3.95  
West_Ham         5    4   -1      47.14    13.49    -6.10     0.06     0.26     0.67     1.75     7.73     7.40R    0.75  
Hull             7    4  -13      29.66     9.92   -54.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10    49.44R   14.32  
Portsmouth       7    0  -10      18.54     8.99   -57.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    85.89R   62.07  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 September 2009, Plymouth vs Nottm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle         9   22  +13     108.22    11.16    72.79    62.82    84.48    98.46    90.14P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom         9   20  +12      98.71    12.20    64.57    22.82    57.59    93.28    67.96P    0.00     0.00  
Preston           9   18   +7      74.50    13.97    15.83     1.26     5.12    38.29    11.88P    0.30R    0.02  
Middlesbrough     9   17   +5      80.54    13.77    27.27     2.44     9.57    55.70    20.22P    0.10R    0.00  
Blackpool         9   16   +6      86.15    13.53    37.33     5.36    19.25    71.26    35.95P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         9   15   +4      77.39    13.75    24.20     1.56     6.34    47.08    15.90P    0.15R    0.01  
Watford           9   14   +2      63.45    14.51    -3.25     0.27     1.18    15.19     3.51P    2.51R    0.26  
QPR               8   13   +5      74.58    14.53    19.98     1.38     5.39    39.47    14.76P    0.29R    0.01  
Cardiff           9   13   +3      76.41    14.18    24.35     1.23     5.50    45.03    15.45P    0.45R    0.04  
Leicester         9   13   +1      66.21    13.98     5.11     0.19     1.24    18.95     5.19P    1.22R    0.08  
Bristol_City      9   13   -1      60.09    13.77    -5.00     0.10     0.48     8.95     2.41P    3.72R    0.47  
Sheff_Wed         9   12   +4      72.31    13.46    19.93     0.39     2.66    32.92     9.22P    0.47R    0.03  
Coventry          9   12   -1      58.20    13.66   -10.89     0.04     0.26     7.33     1.49P    5.10R    0.64  
Crystal_Palace    8   11   -3      51.62    14.28   -19.40     0.04     0.20     4.12     0.94P   12.94R    2.25  
Scunthorpe        9   11   -4      57.09    13.86   -16.05     0.06     0.34     6.44     1.22P    6.67R    1.15  
Derby             9   10   -2      48.80    13.00   -25.18     0.00     0.04     1.86     0.32P   16.20R    2.85  
Nottm_Forest      9   10   -2      55.34    13.37    -9.67     0.01     0.12     5.00     1.20P    6.61R    0.86  
Swansea           9   10   -4      44.02    11.96   -24.20     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.15P   24.93R    4.52  
Doncaster         9    9   -2      56.45    13.04    -6.32     0.02     0.14     4.94     1.12P    5.41R    0.67  
Peterborough      9    7   -5      52.71    13.76   -14.99     0.02     0.10     4.00     0.77P   10.77R    1.92  
Reading           9    7   -5      42.84    13.16   -28.77     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.13P   31.38R    8.12  
Barnsley          9    5  -11      31.71    11.12   -60.31     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   67.85R   33.05  
Ipswich           9    4  -11      37.89    12.79   -43.95     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P   46.43R   17.95  
Plymouth          9    2  -11      34.57    12.44   -43.36     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   56.51R   25.10  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United      9   25  +13     109.04    11.16    69.04    65.79    86.05    99.23    90.72P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton          9   23  +13      96.21    13.08    53.96    19.48    50.08    91.63    61.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers    9   19   +7      81.26    13.71    25.81     3.19    12.12    62.89    25.14P    0.15R    0.01  
MK_Dons           9   17   +3      76.92    13.60    17.98     1.01     5.81    49.89    17.83P    0.47R    0.01  
Colchester        9   15   +8      88.92    13.08    50.94     6.55    26.82    82.73    43.86P    0.05R    0.00  
Huddersfield      9   15   +7      79.04    14.43    32.32     2.89    11.26    57.10    21.08P    0.49R    0.02  
Swindon           9   14   -2      59.76    13.84    -9.80     0.06     0.53    11.67     2.47P    8.44R    0.82  
Oldham            9   12   -2      52.20    14.05   -19.05     0.05     0.28     5.38     1.37P   21.08R    3.40  
Gillingham        9   11   +3      70.97    14.17    19.67     0.43     2.84    35.73    10.19P    2.07R    0.14  
Southend          9   11   +2      64.29    13.81     6.29     0.11     1.00    19.48     5.39P    4.21R    0.38  
Hartlepool        9   11   +0      66.71    14.11     9.07     0.23     1.30    23.54     6.80P    3.54R    0.28  
Millwall          9   10   -1      54.14    13.07    -7.38     0.00     0.17     5.22     1.50P   14.35R    1.68  
Stockport         9   10   -2      55.25    13.81   -10.31     0.02     0.28     7.45     1.79P   13.83R    1.73  
Norwich           9   10   -3      62.65    14.90    -1.35     0.15     0.83    17.42     3.46P    7.99R    0.89  
Brentford         9   10   -3      51.67    12.93   -14.89     0.02     0.09     3.40     0.80P   19.84R    2.63  
Walsall           9   10   -4      53.90    13.28   -12.94     0.00     0.10     5.05     1.10P   16.49R    1.88  
Yeovil            9    9   -1      53.26    13.20   -12.52     0.01     0.10     4.80     0.99P   16.96R    2.35  
Carlisle          9    9   -3      39.18    12.25   -41.65     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.09P   57.69R   17.45  
Leyton_Orient     9    9   -4      49.42    13.60   -27.50     0.01     0.09     3.38     0.52P   27.47R    5.29  
Exeter            9    9   -4      51.44    13.20   -15.80     0.00     0.07     3.51     0.69P   21.17R    2.74  
Brighton          9    9   -7      42.84    13.01   -43.33     0.00     0.01     1.03     0.14P   46.46R   13.33  
Wycombe           9    6   -6      52.82    14.28   -13.04     0.00     0.13     5.53     1.15P   20.63R    3.87  
Tranmere          9    4  -13      34.34    12.40   -55.70     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.02P   70.56R   35.23  
Southampton       9   -1   -1      49.22    13.96     0.17     0.00     0.03     3.19     1.07P   26.05R    5.90  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, Aldershot vs Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth           9   24  +10      98.85    12.70    48.74    30.32    66.00    93.19    74.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red             9   20  +10      95.59    12.19    58.77    19.66    57.72    91.33    67.18P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham             9   20   +9      91.89    12.73    43.33    12.91    44.42    85.24    57.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot             9   17   +7      73.64    14.36    15.71     1.41     8.63    38.64    15.21P    0.05R    0.00  
Rochdale              9   17   +7      79.82    13.81    28.06     3.12    16.46    55.15    25.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury            9   17   +5      79.51    13.37    26.70     2.14    13.51    54.86    22.46P    0.03R    0.00  
Notts_County          9   16  +14      98.48    11.53    82.49    28.08    68.83    95.16    77.90P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet                9   15   +2      75.29    13.28    17.98     0.84     7.49    41.59    15.88P    0.08R    0.01  
Bradford              9   15   +0      71.80    13.72    11.02     0.58     5.31    32.28    10.17P    0.20R    0.03  
Cheltenham            9   13   -1      59.54    13.66   -11.39     0.06     0.86     9.79     2.54P    1.08R    0.08  
Crewe                 9   12   +0      59.38    13.58    -7.73     0.08     0.77     9.68     2.49P    1.08R    0.12  
Accrington_Stanley    9   12   -4      46.43    12.44   -41.27     0.00     0.04     1.29     0.20P    9.13R    1.50  
Bury                  9   12   -4      40.99    11.85   -41.51     0.00     0.02     0.50     0.10P   18.37R    3.47  
Burton_Albion         9   11   +0      72.94    13.75    19.71     0.52     5.75    36.22    13.36P    0.13R    0.01  
Chesterfield          9   11   -3      64.72    13.76     2.03     0.11     1.52    16.22     4.59P    0.90R    0.11  
Port_Vale             9   10   +0      56.72    13.48    -5.15     0.04     0.53     6.64     2.02P    1.82R    0.27  
Grimsby               9   10   -7      35.75    11.50   -60.36     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   36.33R    8.83  
Morecambe             9    9   -4      64.38    13.85     3.17     0.08     1.38    16.46     4.17P    0.86R    0.16  
Lincoln_City          9    9   -6      46.39    13.13   -27.52     0.00     0.05     1.41     0.30P   10.83R    1.96  
Macclesfield          9    9   -7      51.27    13.43   -26.18     0.00     0.08     2.89     0.55P    6.70R    1.55  
Hereford              9    7   -5      42.94    12.75   -36.30     0.00     0.03     0.89     0.19P   15.06R    3.79  
Northampton           9    7   -6      57.12    13.83    -8.41     0.03     0.43     7.01     1.72P    2.73R    0.54  
Torquay               9    6   -6      51.67    13.82   -16.53     0.00     0.18     3.41     0.84P    6.12R    1.46  
Darlington            9    2  -11      19.46     9.28   -75.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.47R   76.10  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 September 2009, Wrexham vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         13   32  +17     106.28     9.17    68.91    78.89    98.83    85.41P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          13   24   +9      85.03    10.84    34.94     4.11    61.00    19.63P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          12   23   +9      81.86    11.29    28.70     2.82    49.36    15.26P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          13   23   +8      78.28    10.75    25.20     1.17    36.40     7.85P    0.00     0.00  
York               12   22   +8      78.72    11.47    24.41     1.64    38.17    10.54P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton              12   22   +5      82.62    11.52    28.32     3.05    51.84    14.21P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           13   22   +5      72.93    10.96    14.19     0.53    19.79     4.59P    0.02R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       13   21   -4      62.07    10.78   -10.45     0.03     3.29     0.44P    0.22R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      13   20  +12      80.28    10.80    39.44     2.16    44.73    12.78P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      12   20  +10      85.64    10.73    44.06     5.06    64.28    21.19P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   13   20   +6      65.52    10.82     5.19     0.09     7.03     1.29P    0.06R    0.01  
Kidderminster      13   18   +3      61.86    10.85    -0.03     0.04     3.95     0.76P    0.23R    0.01  
Altrincham         13   18   +2      65.30    10.77     6.43     0.05     6.13     1.54P    0.08R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    13   16   -5      51.32    10.34   -21.32     0.00     0.33     0.04P    3.12R    0.21  
Wrexham            11   14   +3      68.76    12.49    14.17     0.35    14.22     4.40P    0.18R    0.01  
Histon             13   14   -6      50.49    10.50   -22.41     0.00     0.36     0.05P    3.89R    0.32  
Barrow             13   10  -14      38.86     9.99   -40.53     0.00     0.02     0.00    28.70R    5.64  
Salisbury          13    8   -1      46.72    10.32   -11.67     0.00     0.11     0.02P    7.85R    0.94  
Gateshead          12    8  -11      45.33    11.03   -29.07     0.00     0.13     0.02P   12.90R    1.99  
Ebbsfleet_United   13    8  -14      33.99     9.25   -43.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.68R   11.88  
Forest_Green       13    8  -16      29.44     8.62   -56.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.79R   25.61  
Hayes_&_Yeading    12    7   -9      37.71    10.33   -42.89     0.00     0.01     0.00    32.94R    7.20  
Grays_Athletic     12    7  -11      39.80    10.50   -40.81     0.00     0.01     0.00    26.13R    5.36  
Chester            12  -14   -6      26.53    11.56   -15.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.21R   40.83  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25