Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 27 September 2009 at 21:01:53 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 September 2009, Sunderland vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          7   18  +11      93.52     9.17    95.89    51.91    75.29    87.77    93.97    98.95     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          7   18  +10      77.94    11.47    43.66     7.08    18.22    33.21    51.19    82.32     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        7   15  +12      77.07    11.45    59.83     7.32    18.04    31.99    48.61    81.59     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        7   15   +7      78.74    11.07    56.41     6.30    19.63    36.23    54.87    85.33     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          6   12  +10      84.44    11.51    82.41    17.19    41.16    59.62    73.07    91.66     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         5   12   +5      78.61    13.33    48.05     8.68    22.62    39.54    54.26    79.86     0.05R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      6   12   +4      65.52    13.23    19.54     1.41     4.45     9.52    17.89    44.62     0.26R    0.02  
Sunderland       7   12   +3      48.35    11.58   -26.51     0.02     0.11     0.39     1.12     6.19     4.17R    0.50  
Everton          6    9   -2      41.20    12.65   -43.50     0.01     0.02     0.14     0.53     3.35    17.46R    2.03  
Wigan            7    9   -6      46.94    11.57   -17.79     0.00     0.02     0.18     0.70     4.77     5.46R    0.50  
Burnley          7    9  -10      39.70    10.64   -30.87     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.10     1.04    15.40R    1.81  
Stoke            7    8   -4      43.68    11.75   -15.65     0.00     0.03     0.17     0.50     3.25     9.08R    1.04  
Bolton           6    7   -1      40.71    11.97   -33.17     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.35     2.27    16.14R    2.09  
Birmingham       7    7   -2      42.97    11.88    -9.40     0.00     0.03     0.14     0.43     2.98    10.18R    0.93  
Blackburn        6    7   -3      39.54    11.69   -30.20     0.01     0.02     0.08     0.28     1.78    17.52R    2.69  
Wolverhampton    7    7   -6      33.92    10.53   -50.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.39    33.16R    6.76  
Fulham           6    6   -4      35.72    11.40   -30.52     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.08     0.90    28.14R    4.21  
West_Ham         5    4   -1      47.65    13.95    -5.99     0.08     0.31     0.86     2.01     8.66     7.89R    1.03  
Hull             7    4  -13      29.67     9.89   -54.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    49.61R   14.25  
Portsmouth       7    0  -10      18.59     9.12   -57.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    85.47R   62.14  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 September 2009, Plymouth vs Nottm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle         9   22  +13     108.11    10.82    72.46    62.65    84.84    98.78    90.45P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom         9   20  +12      98.21    12.53    63.93    22.76    56.09    92.27    66.80P    0.00     0.00  
Preston           9   18   +7      75.55    14.18    17.74     1.69     6.59    41.25    14.03P    0.24R    0.01  
Middlesbrough     9   17   +5      81.12    13.48    28.33     2.55     9.97    57.48    20.68P    0.07R    0.00  
Blackpool         9   16   +6      85.62    13.51    36.40     4.81    17.78    70.03    34.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         9   15   +4      77.14    13.69    23.74     1.45     6.17    46.09    15.32P    0.14R    0.02  
Watford           9   14   +2      63.06    14.63    -3.96     0.19     1.11    15.14     3.73P    2.61R    0.25  
QPR               8   13   +5      74.08    15.06    19.26     1.76     5.85    38.44    14.37P    0.55R    0.04  
Cardiff           9   13   +3      75.56    14.54    22.97     1.19     5.55    42.68    14.67P    0.38R    0.02  
Leicester         9   13   +1      66.52    13.84     5.47     0.22     1.42    19.54     5.52P    1.21R    0.08  
Bristol_City      9   13   -1      60.07    13.82    -5.29     0.10     0.53     9.45     2.64P    3.59R    0.39  
Sheff_Wed         9   12   +4      71.68    13.76    18.95     0.42     2.75    31.53     9.05P    0.44R    0.02  
Coventry          9   12   -1      58.67    14.20   -10.05     0.09     0.48     8.74     1.93P    5.09R    0.60  
Crystal_Palace    8   11   -3      52.36    14.02   -18.42     0.00     0.11     4.30     0.96P   11.41R    1.72  
Scunthorpe        9   11   -4      57.39    13.66   -15.77     0.06     0.31     6.43     1.20P    6.33R    1.00  
Derby             9   10   -2      49.04    13.21   -24.97     0.01     0.04     2.01     0.37P   16.28R    3.11  
Nottm_Forest      9   10   -2      54.80    13.50   -10.64     0.01     0.13     4.78     1.17P    7.25R    0.92  
Swansea           9   10   -4      44.77    12.29   -23.16     0.00     0.01     0.77     0.20P   24.16R    4.23  
Doncaster         9    9   -2      56.72    13.30    -5.85     0.03     0.18     5.46     1.39P    5.72R    0.85  
Peterborough      9    7   -5      52.02    13.86   -16.12     0.01     0.08     3.52     0.70P   12.62R    2.57  
Reading           9    7   -5      42.21    12.73   -29.46     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.11P   32.64R    8.65  
Barnsley          9    5  -11      31.66    11.35   -60.68     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   68.04R   33.45  
Ipswich           9    4  -11      39.03    13.34   -41.45     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.07P   43.92R   16.43  
Plymouth          9    2  -11      34.39    12.53   -43.44     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   57.32R   25.63  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United      9   25  +13     109.06    11.04    69.46    66.11    86.20    99.32    91.00P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton          9   23  +13      96.59    12.76    54.72    19.70    50.83    92.24    62.29P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers    9   19   +7      80.83    13.80    25.07     2.97    11.75    61.31    24.54P    0.13R    0.01  
MK_Dons           9   17   +3      77.49    13.67    18.68     1.01     6.24    51.70    18.59P    0.42R    0.01  
Colchester        9   15   +8      89.37    12.76    51.76     6.60    26.50    83.89    44.59P    0.03R    0.00  
Huddersfield      9   15   +7      79.19    14.46    32.57     2.66    11.21    57.42    21.16P    0.46R    0.03  
Swindon           9   14   -2      60.96    14.11    -8.09     0.10     0.61    13.08     2.83P    7.78R    0.82  
Oldham            9   12   -2      52.10    13.89   -19.27     0.02     0.23     4.90     1.17P   20.98R    3.57  
Gillingham        9   11   +3      71.10    14.42    19.98     0.36     2.86    35.56    10.32P    2.06R    0.13  
Southend          9   11   +2      63.14    13.78     4.39     0.08     0.78    16.97     4.45P    4.80R    0.40  
Hartlepool        9   11   +0      66.85    14.03     9.27     0.19     1.27    23.52     6.66P    3.03R    0.23  
Millwall          9   10   -1      53.98    13.25    -7.71     0.00     0.09     5.32     1.35P   15.04R    1.66  
Stockport         9   10   -2      55.63    13.61    -9.54     0.02     0.17     7.38     1.62P   12.79R    1.39  
Norwich           9   10   -3      63.04    14.57    -0.70     0.10     0.67    17.55     3.27P    7.01R    0.88  
Brentford         9   10   -3      51.69    12.70   -14.79     0.01     0.04     3.40     0.73P   19.09R    2.38  
Walsall           9   10   -4      53.13    13.43   -13.95     0.01     0.10     4.61     0.93P   18.10R    2.42  
Yeovil            9    9   -1      53.44    13.36   -12.14     0.02     0.11     4.95     0.96P   16.73R    2.40  
Carlisle          9    9   -3      39.13    12.26   -41.81     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.10P   57.70R   17.20  
Leyton_Orient     9    9   -4      48.51    13.72   -29.85     0.01     0.05     2.97     0.49P   29.71R    6.29  
Exeter            9    9   -4      51.78    13.25   -15.24     0.00     0.08     4.13     0.84P   20.06R    2.44  
Brighton          9    9   -7      42.49    13.02   -44.13     0.00     0.02     1.01     0.14P   47.35R   14.04  
Wycombe           9    6   -6      52.50    14.16   -13.51     0.01     0.13     4.95     1.09P   20.96R    3.79  
Tranmere          9    4  -13      35.14    12.90   -54.31     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   67.80R   33.52  
Southampton       9   -1   -1      48.50    14.12    -0.88     0.00     0.04     2.94     0.84P   27.98R    6.37  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, Aldershot vs Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth           9   24  +10      98.82    12.86    48.98    29.93    65.51    92.61    74.07P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red             9   20  +10      95.78    12.09    59.17    19.37    57.89    91.73    67.14P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham             9   20   +9      91.71    13.21    43.25    13.35    44.03    83.05    56.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot             9   17   +7      73.30    14.48    15.00     1.39     8.26    37.25    14.91P    0.05R    0.00  
Rochdale              9   17   +7      79.49    13.57    27.41     2.75    14.96    53.68    24.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury            9   17   +5      79.70    13.12    27.01     2.14    13.62    54.61    22.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County          9   16  +14      98.68    11.40    83.46    28.16    68.97    95.33    78.31P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet                9   15   +2      75.94    13.78    19.14     1.24     8.96    43.29    17.46P    0.09R    0.02  
Bradford              9   15   +0      72.57    13.68    12.57     0.64     5.66    33.83    10.60P    0.14R    0.02  
Cheltenham            9   13   -1      59.34    13.62   -11.91     0.08     0.89     9.36     2.38P    1.05R    0.11  
Crewe                 9   12   +0      58.67    13.31    -9.32     0.06     0.67     8.31     2.16P    1.09R    0.09  
Accrington_Stanley    9   12   -4      46.00    12.45   -42.87     0.00     0.04     1.24     0.21P    9.55R    1.58  
Bury                  9   12   -4      39.86    11.54   -44.05     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P   18.89R    3.35  
Burton_Albion         9   11   +0      73.51    13.41    20.89     0.52     5.49    36.90    13.13P    0.11R    0.02  
Chesterfield          9   11   -3      66.35    13.85     4.90     0.15     2.00    19.21     5.89P    0.63R    0.12  
Port_Vale             9   10   +0      56.77    13.52    -5.34     0.03     0.46     6.65     2.08P    1.75R    0.24  
Grimsby               9   10   -7      35.36    11.24   -61.41     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   35.78R    8.50  
Morecambe             9    9   -4      65.10    13.91     4.47     0.13     1.68    17.30     4.73P    0.75R    0.16  
Lincoln_City          9    9   -6      45.98    12.84   -28.10     0.00     0.05     1.02     0.24P   10.67R    2.01  
Macclesfield          9    9   -7      51.65    13.75   -25.02     0.01     0.20     3.50     0.80P    6.29R    1.50  
Hereford              9    7   -5      42.06    12.43   -38.13     0.00     0.01     0.62     0.13P   15.83R    3.69  
Northampton           9    7   -6      57.20    13.82    -8.40     0.04     0.49     6.85     1.75P    2.56R    0.49  
Torquay               9    6   -6      52.21    13.34   -15.67     0.00     0.14     3.16     0.75P    4.97R    1.06  
Darlington            9    2  -11      19.06     8.84   -76.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.77R   77.05  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 September 2009, Wrexham vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd         13   32  +17     106.34     9.21    69.15    78.26    98.91    84.84P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering          13   24   +9      85.11    11.00    35.06     4.25    61.39    19.87P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage          12   23   +9      81.45    11.52    28.15     2.79    47.62    14.69P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          13   23   +8      78.03    10.84    24.71     1.18    35.66     7.73P    0.00     0.00  
York               12   22   +8      79.19    11.26    25.03     1.70    39.54    11.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton              12   22   +5      82.00    11.59    27.17     2.87    49.99    12.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           13   22   +5      73.29    10.84    14.76     0.50    20.78     4.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town       13   21   -4      61.91    10.84   -10.70     0.03     3.31     0.49P    0.24R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd      13   20  +12      80.22    10.83    39.33     2.20    44.90    12.52P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon      12   20  +10      85.90    11.14    44.45     5.67    64.69    22.85P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'mnds   13   20   +6      65.64    10.76     5.43     0.08     7.12     1.24P    0.04R    0.00  
Kidderminster      13   18   +3      61.30    10.86    -1.09     0.06     3.42     0.65P    0.29R    0.02  
Altrincham         13   18   +2      64.78    10.86     5.72     0.05     5.78     1.31P    0.12R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Boro    13   16   -5      51.43    10.37   -20.97     0.00     0.42     0.05P    3.01R    0.18  
Wrexham            11   14   +3      69.71    12.34    15.63     0.35    15.74     4.88P    0.13R    0.00  
Histon             13   14   -6      50.38    10.57   -22.42     0.00     0.44     0.06P    4.08R    0.33  
Barrow             13   10  -14      38.90    10.05   -40.88     0.00     0.01     0.00    28.41R    5.53  
Salisbury          13    8   -1      47.17    10.40   -10.98     0.00     0.13     0.04P    7.33R    0.79  
Gateshead          12    8  -11      45.39    11.01   -29.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   12.70R    1.97  
Ebbsfleet_United   13    8  -14      33.38     9.02   -44.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.01R   12.47  
Forest_Green       13    8  -16      29.77     8.68   -55.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.25R   24.24  
Hayes_&_Yeading    12    7   -9      37.88    10.44   -42.59     0.00     0.02     0.00P   31.95R    7.73  
Grays_Athletic     12    7  -11      39.79    10.53   -40.72     0.00     0.01     0.00    26.17R    5.69  
Chester            12  -14   -6      26.36    11.27   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.27R   41.04  

Adjustments:
Salisbury          -10
Chester            -25