Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 26 September 2009 at 21:01:58 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, Birmingham vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          7   18  +11      93.99     8.84    95.94    52.99    76.34    88.79    94.66    99.07     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          7   18  +10      77.11    11.56    41.26     6.20    16.66    30.31    47.83    80.09     0.01R    0.00  
Liverpool        7   15  +12      75.79    11.26    54.27     5.33    14.42    27.09    44.10    78.73     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        7   15   +7      78.23    10.95    53.84     5.47    17.94    33.80    53.24    84.57     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          6   12  +10      84.93    11.08    82.88    16.68    40.94    61.31    74.94    92.69     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City         5   12   +5      80.87    13.23    56.35    11.55    28.33    46.40    60.25    83.75     0.03R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      6   12   +4      65.78    13.60    19.58     1.65     4.79    10.37    19.03    45.76     0.38R    0.01  
Sunderland       6    9   +0      43.45    12.16   -33.91     0.01     0.08     0.25     0.69     3.66    10.47R    1.56  
Everton          6    9   -2      42.11    12.63   -40.62     0.01     0.04     0.17     0.67     3.66    14.90R    1.92  
Wigan            7    9   -6      49.10    11.87   -14.15     0.01     0.09     0.31     1.05     6.68     3.89R    0.27  
Burnley          7    9  -10      39.25    10.70   -32.52     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.92    16.04R    2.22  
Stoke            7    8   -4      42.08    11.71   -18.46     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.34     2.58    11.40R    1.53  
Bolton           6    7   -1      38.74    12.24   -40.27     0.00     0.03     0.11     0.32     2.08    21.01R    3.39  
Birmingham       7    7   -2      41.44    11.24   -11.33     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.19     1.90    11.02R    1.03  
Blackburn        6    7   -3      40.26    11.95   -30.73     0.01     0.03     0.11     0.37     2.23    17.01R    2.70  
Wolverhampton    6    7   -3      38.08    12.55   -32.84     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.26     1.89    23.64R    5.04  
Fulham           6    6   -4      36.21    11.48   -29.79     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.12     0.92    26.40R    4.13  
West_Ham         5    4   -1      48.19    13.93    -5.36     0.07     0.26     0.75     1.88     8.71     7.73R    1.49  
Hull             7    4  -13      28.92    10.02   -58.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10    52.10R   16.93  
Portsmouth       7    0  -10      19.41     8.92   -55.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    83.95R   57.77  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, Blackpool vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Newcastle         9   22  +13     108.36    10.77    73.05    64.16    85.65    98.88    90.95P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom         9   20  +12      98.03    12.53    63.17    21.83    56.07    91.97    66.60P    0.00     0.00  
Preston           9   18   +7      75.58    14.08    17.84     1.67     6.46    41.70    14.06P    0.22R    0.01  
Middlesbrough     9   17   +5      80.08    13.57    26.54     2.27     8.71    54.59    18.73P    0.09R    0.00  
Blackpool         9   16   +6      85.60    13.51    36.37     4.73    17.43    70.04    34.24P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         9   15   +4      77.08    13.80    23.93     1.36     6.29    46.07    15.31P    0.13R    0.00  
Watford           9   14   +2      63.69    14.66    -2.54     0.25     1.36    16.18     4.09P    2.82R    0.26  
QPR               8   13   +5      75.04    15.00    20.65     1.40     6.01    41.48    16.11P    0.56R    0.06  
Cardiff           9   13   +3      75.99    14.35    23.81     1.32     6.12    43.76    15.48P    0.35R    0.02  
Leicester         9   13   +1      66.51    14.15     5.57     0.24     1.60    19.66     5.74P    1.43R    0.11  
Bristol_City      9   13   -1      60.32    13.89    -4.77     0.17     0.63     9.56     2.63P    3.75R    0.53  
Sheff_Wed         9   12   +4      71.24    13.70    18.11     0.41     2.46    29.93     8.38P    0.51R    0.02  
Coventry          9   12   -1      58.05    14.01   -11.23     0.08     0.33     7.70     1.53P    5.84R    0.78  
Crystal_Palace    8   11   -3      51.64    13.79   -19.47     0.01     0.12     3.81     0.90P   12.16R    1.89  
Scunthorpe        9   11   -4      57.23    13.80   -16.00     0.02     0.25     6.48     1.16P    6.88R    1.12  
Derby             9   10   -2      49.20    13.33   -24.15     0.01     0.07     2.35     0.51P   16.27R    2.90  
Swansea           9   10   -4      44.93    12.17   -22.69     0.00     0.01     0.59     0.12P   23.85R    4.39  
Doncaster         9    9   -2      56.39    13.18    -6.21     0.02     0.15     5.25     1.31P    5.90R    0.84  
Nottm_Forest      8    7   -3      51.96    14.40   -14.27     0.02     0.15     4.32     1.05P   13.14R    2.57  
Peterborough      9    7   -5      52.07    14.12   -16.24     0.01     0.09     3.88     0.74P   12.98R    2.68  
Reading           9    7   -5      42.75    13.01   -28.56     0.00     0.03     0.82     0.21P   31.60R    8.29  
Barnsley          9    5  -11      31.08    11.30   -61.82     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   70.37R   37.22  
Ipswich           9    4  -11      38.46    13.15   -42.61     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.07P   45.60R   17.76  
Plymouth          8    2  -10      38.51    13.80   -38.50     0.00     0.01     0.51     0.09P   45.54R   18.51  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United      9   25  +13     108.58    11.07    68.70    65.16    85.79    99.24    90.55P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton          9   23  +13      96.30    12.58    54.16    19.65    50.42    92.41    62.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers    9   19   +7      81.39    13.81    25.79     3.32    12.53    63.62    26.06P    0.19R    0.01  
MK_Dons           9   17   +3      76.94    13.48    17.90     0.99     5.94    50.14    17.77P    0.39R    0.00  
Colchester        9   15   +8      88.70    12.85    50.37     6.50    26.13    83.00    43.58P    0.05R    0.00  
Huddersfield      9   15   +7      78.95    14.87    32.34     3.41    11.87    57.33    21.70P    0.62R    0.02  
Swindon           9   14   -2      60.20    13.95    -9.21     0.10     0.63    12.09     2.68P    8.11R    0.79  
Oldham            9   12   -2      52.52    14.00   -18.59     0.02     0.20     5.32     1.16P   20.52R    3.29  
Gillingham        9   11   +3      70.48    14.42    18.89     0.37     2.70    34.41     9.80P    2.37R    0.17  
Southend          9   11   +2      64.37    13.80     6.35     0.14     1.02    19.47     5.32P    4.18R    0.43  
Hartlepool        9   11   +0      66.29    13.70     8.40     0.13     1.11    22.18     6.46P    3.29R    0.25  
Millwall          9   10   -1      53.83    12.96    -7.65     0.01     0.11     4.90     1.32P   14.54R    1.65  
Stockport         9   10   -2      56.20    13.65    -8.84     0.02     0.22     7.72     1.58P   12.25R    1.54  
Norwich           9   10   -3      63.28    14.60    -0.19     0.12     0.81    18.32     3.44P    6.97R    0.76  
Brentford         9   10   -3      52.31    13.02   -13.76     0.01     0.08     3.93     0.85P   18.44R    2.35  
Walsall           9   10   -4      53.38    12.93   -13.69     0.00     0.06     4.27     0.82P   16.98R    1.92  
Yeovil            9    9   -1      53.59    13.25   -12.02     0.01     0.10     5.10     1.01P   16.57R    2.07  
Carlisle          9    9   -3      39.08    12.20   -41.66     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.09P   58.15R   17.26  
Leyton_Orient     9    9   -4      49.59    13.86   -27.37     0.02     0.10     3.64     0.66P   27.35R    5.66  
Exeter            9    9   -4      50.87    13.01   -16.45     0.01     0.05     3.44     0.67P   22.15R    2.83  
Brighton          9    9   -7      42.56    13.11   -43.79     0.00     0.01     1.05     0.13P   47.27R   14.20  
Wycombe           9    6   -6      51.32    14.02   -15.49     0.00     0.08     3.97     0.73P   23.40R    4.59  
Tranmere          9    4  -13      34.40    12.37   -55.52     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   71.05R   35.00  
Southampton       9   -1   -1      49.98    14.15     1.33     0.01     0.05     3.75     1.25P   25.16R    5.19  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, Aldershot vs Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth           9   24  +10      98.16    13.01    47.59    29.37    64.06    91.82    72.66P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red             9   20  +10      94.69    12.45    56.79    18.48    54.85    89.81    64.07P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham             9   20   +9      92.27    13.02    43.98    14.32    46.13    85.04    58.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot             9   17   +7      74.12    14.30    16.50     1.49     9.12    39.30    15.99P    0.05R    0.00  
Rochdale              9   17   +7      79.85    13.80    28.09     3.20    16.40    55.41    25.80P    0.02R    0.01  
Shrewsbury            9   17   +5      79.74    13.55    27.11     2.58    14.86    55.05    23.76P    0.03R    0.00  
Notts_County          9   16  +14      98.17    11.31    81.51    27.81    67.89    95.26    77.49P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet                9   15   +2      75.61    13.65    18.46     0.99     8.43    42.93    17.04P    0.06R    0.00  
Bradford              9   15   +0      72.28    13.96    11.98     0.77     6.08    33.54    11.14P    0.24R    0.04  
Cheltenham            9   13   -1      59.90    13.52   -10.65     0.08     0.86     9.73     2.47P    1.07R    0.11  
Crewe                 9   12   +0      59.05    13.48    -8.61     0.04     0.64     9.33     2.29P    1.30R    0.12  
Accrington_Stanley    9   12   -4      46.91    12.49   -40.31     0.00     0.03     1.29     0.21P    8.77R    1.47  
Bury                  9   12   -4      40.91    11.87   -41.98     0.00     0.01     0.44     0.07P   18.18R    3.28  
Burton_Albion         9   11   +0      72.92    13.79    19.78     0.57     5.80    35.86    13.17P    0.13R    0.02  
Chesterfield          9   11   -3      65.10    13.71     2.62     0.11     1.64    16.92     4.88P    0.77R    0.13  
Port_Vale             9   10   +0      57.30    13.48    -4.50     0.05     0.65     7.26     2.38P    1.62R    0.19  
Grimsby               9   10   -7      36.12    11.54   -59.13     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.03P   35.03R    7.85  
Morecambe             9    9   -4      64.71    14.08     3.79     0.10     1.81    17.39     4.81P    1.04R    0.18  
Lincoln_City          9    9   -6      45.76    12.91   -28.33     0.00     0.05     1.17     0.27P   11.53R    2.23  
Macclesfield          9    9   -7      50.49    13.23   -27.33     0.01     0.14     2.44     0.51P    6.73R    1.65  
Hereford              9    7   -5      42.78    12.43   -36.00     0.00     0.01     0.70     0.16P   15.04R    3.23  
Northampton           9    7   -6      56.61    13.65    -9.47     0.02     0.40     6.14     1.57P    3.02R    0.60  
Torquay               9    6   -6      51.71    13.34   -16.49     0.00     0.12     2.99     0.68P    5.67R    1.28  
Darlington            9    2  -11      19.28     9.11   -75.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.69R   77.63  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, AFC_Wimbledon vs Histon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd           13   32  +17     114.92    10.30    77.81    65.60    97.82    76.24P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            13   24   +9      92.97    12.06    41.14     3.85    55.64    17.56P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            12   23   +9      88.69    12.38    32.63     2.04    41.01    12.14P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            13   23   +8      85.01    11.73    29.19     0.96    28.98     5.85P    0.00     0.00  
York                 12   22   +8      86.71    12.39    30.02     1.48    34.69     9.51P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton                12   22   +5      89.20    12.46    31.75     2.29    42.16    10.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth             13   22   +5      80.55    12.10    18.68     0.50    18.14     4.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         13   21   -4      66.17    11.80   -12.63     0.02     1.75     0.24P    0.34R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        13   20  +12      88.53    11.72    47.11     1.93    41.42    11.32P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        12   20  +10      94.02    11.72    51.85     4.46    59.94    19.24P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    12   20   +7      75.71    12.36    13.26     0.25    10.58     2.14P    0.02R    0.00  
Kidderminster        13   18   +3      68.22    11.87     1.98     0.02     2.97     0.53P    0.14R    0.00  
Altrincham           13   18   +2      71.72    11.89     8.60     0.04     4.81     1.07P    0.05R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   12   15   -5      56.86    12.10   -21.58     0.00     0.41     0.05P    2.38R    0.16  
Histon               13   14   -6      55.80    11.60   -22.88     0.00     0.21     0.02P    2.72R    0.20  
Wrexham              10   13   +3      79.41    14.44    22.89     0.66    20.08     6.09P    0.06R    0.00  
Barrow               13   10  -14      43.60    11.12   -42.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.04R    3.08  
Salisbury            13    8   -1      53.27    11.29    -9.86     0.00     0.10     0.02P    4.12R    0.37  
Gateshead            12    8  -11      50.70    12.13   -29.78     0.00     0.11     0.02P    9.18R    1.12  
Ebbsfleet_United     13    8  -14      38.25    10.28   -46.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.54R    6.72  
Forest_Green         13    8  -16      33.71     9.58   -59.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.75R   14.19  
Hayes_&_Yeading      12    7   -9      43.24    11.44   -44.18     0.00     0.01     0.00    22.18R    3.65  
Grays_Athletic       12    7  -11      44.88    11.45   -42.78     0.00     0.02     0.01P   18.18R    2.91  
Eastbourne_Boro       1    1   +0      60.74    36.12   -13.25     9.72    22.06    14.05P   28.42R   15.10  
Rushden_&_D'mnds      1    0   -1      52.42    35.82   -42.81     6.17    17.08     8.96P   38.06R   25.93  
Chester              11  -15   -6      30.69    12.81   -18.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.79R   26.54  

Adjustments:
Salisbury            -10
Chester              -25