Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 26 September 2009 at 16:27:26 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, Birmingham vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd          7   18  +11      94.01     8.75    94.57    50.07    75.18    88.74    94.72    99.08     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          7   18  +10      77.07    11.35    40.41     6.11    15.68    29.08    46.75    80.72     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        7   15  +12      75.88    11.11    54.32     4.99    13.49    26.31    43.90    79.97     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        7   15   +7      78.31    10.81    54.02     5.27    16.79    32.59    52.91    84.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         5   12   +5      81.65    12.99    57.49    11.77    28.54    48.16    62.41    85.01     0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      6   12   +4      63.82    13.30    15.36     1.08     3.48     7.78    15.04    39.40     0.28R    0.01  
Arsenal          5    9   +9      86.45    11.34    99.36    20.61    46.25    65.33    77.95    93.55     0.01R    0.00  
Sunderland       6    9   +0      44.60    12.55   -32.14     0.02     0.13     0.33     0.93     4.77     9.21R    1.52  
Everton          6    9   -2      42.37    12.27   -36.34     0.00     0.02     0.16     0.64     3.49    12.78R    1.38  
Wigan            7    9   -6      49.73    12.26   -12.96     0.01     0.09     0.41     1.42     7.92     3.93R    0.36  
Burnley          7    9  -10      40.31    11.41   -31.56     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.14     1.56    14.56R    1.82  
Stoke            7    8   -4      43.09    11.77   -17.61     0.01     0.02     0.09     0.38     2.92     9.48R    1.19  
Bolton           6    7   -1      39.35    12.29   -39.74     0.00     0.03     0.11     0.32     1.97    19.25R    2.89  
Birmingham       7    7   -2      41.65    11.63   -11.42     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.28     2.31    10.91R    1.19  
Blackburn        6    7   -3      39.35    11.79   -34.30     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.23     1.73    18.09R    3.11  
Wolverhampton    6    7   -3      36.18    11.48   -36.36     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.07     0.87    25.94R    5.06  
Fulham           5    6   -3      35.29    12.79   -42.68     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.20     1.47    32.14R    7.13  
West_Ham         5    4   -1      48.03    13.81    -6.11     0.05     0.25     0.70     1.72     8.21     7.37R    1.40  
Hull             7    4  -13      28.66     9.93   -60.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    52.37R   16.71  
Portsmouth       7    0  -10      19.28     8.80   -53.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.66R   56.23  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, Blackpool vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Brom         9   20  +12      98.06    12.45    63.71    29.22    58.01    92.28    67.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle         8   19   +9     102.93    12.49    60.62    48.22    71.97    95.82    80.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston           9   18   +7      75.67    14.26    18.43     2.73     7.58    41.80    14.67P    0.21R    0.01  
Middlesbrough     9   17   +5      81.80    13.74    30.14     4.45    12.99    59.30    23.39P    0.10R    0.00  
Blackpool         9   16   +6      85.89    13.65    36.89     7.40    20.82    70.32    36.74P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd         9   15   +4      77.31    13.59    24.27     2.02     7.18    46.44    15.96P    0.17R    0.01  
Watford           9   14   +2      63.24    14.57    -3.37     0.27     1.21    15.23     3.85P    2.74R    0.27  
QPR               8   13   +5      74.82    15.08    20.43     2.37     7.08    40.46    16.29P    0.52R    0.03  
Cardiff           9   13   +3      75.61    14.37    23.07     1.79     6.47    42.37    15.29P    0.28R    0.02  
Leicester         9   13   +1      66.26    14.26     5.10     0.37     1.63    19.60     5.64P    1.60R    0.13  
Bristol_City      9   13   -1      61.02    13.90    -3.69     0.18     0.74    10.61     3.12P    3.37R    0.39  
Sheff_Wed         9   12   +4      70.52    13.65    16.68     0.63     2.66    27.95     7.99P    0.59R    0.04  
Coventry          9   12   -1      59.26    14.43    -8.74     0.15     0.61     9.09     2.03P    5.40R    0.76  
Crystal_Palace    8   11   -3      52.20    14.26   -18.70     0.02     0.20     4.35     1.02P   12.69R    2.30  
Scunthorpe        9   11   -4      57.10    13.80   -15.80     0.07     0.29     6.17     1.15P    6.97R    1.20  
Derby             9   10   -2      48.75    13.03   -24.64     0.01     0.03     1.72     0.29P   17.33R    3.38  
Swansea           9   10   -4      44.93    12.50   -22.80     0.00     0.05     0.91     0.25P   24.57R    4.77  
Doncaster         9    9   -2      56.81    13.39    -5.51     0.04     0.19     5.81     1.48P    5.96R    0.81  
Nottm_Forest      8    7   -3      52.20    14.32   -13.91     0.02     0.16     4.09     0.94P   12.92R    2.75  
Peterborough      9    7   -5      51.88    13.97   -16.21     0.01     0.11     3.54     0.75P   13.41R    2.72  
Reading           9    7   -5      41.83    12.79   -30.53     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.11P   34.68R    9.72  
Barnsley          9    5  -11      30.76    11.05   -62.27     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    71.86R   38.51  
Ipswich           8    4   -7      42.50    14.00   -32.21     0.01     0.03     1.17     0.29P   35.34R   11.57  
Plymouth          8    2  -10      37.52    13.64   -40.95     0.00     0.01     0.45     0.06P   49.26R   20.61  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leeds_United      9   25  +13     109.20    11.39    69.50    66.50    86.84    99.17    91.26P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton          9   23  +13      96.24    12.80    54.19    19.28    50.26    92.28    62.14P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers    9   19   +7      80.55    13.90    24.50     3.02    11.64    61.22    24.60P    0.21R    0.00  
MK_Dons           9   17   +3      77.20    13.60    18.34     0.98     5.93    51.37    18.21P    0.55R    0.02  
Colchester        9   15   +8      88.79    12.88    50.64     6.18    26.75    82.65    44.12P    0.03R    0.00  
Huddersfield      9   15   +7      78.30    14.43    30.73     2.75    10.26    55.20    19.65P    0.53R    0.04  
Swindon           9   14   -2      61.31    13.97    -7.39     0.10     0.67    13.94     3.14P    7.19R    0.65  
Oldham            9   12   -2      52.98    13.55   -17.91     0.02     0.19     5.00     1.20P   18.51R    2.70  
Gillingham        9   11   +3      71.19    14.16    20.28     0.48     3.14    35.78    10.44P    1.85R    0.15  
Southend          9   11   +2      63.84    14.03     5.37     0.18     1.16    18.81     5.35P    4.86R    0.41  
Hartlepool        9   11   +0      67.06    14.19     9.66     0.26     1.52    24.42     7.30P    3.63R    0.31  
Millwall          9   10   -1      53.68    13.10    -8.06     0.01     0.13     4.74     1.31P   15.32R    2.02  
Stockport         9   10   -2      55.09    13.22   -10.48     0.02     0.17     6.47     1.33P   13.03R    1.37  
Norwich           9   10   -3      63.39    14.42     0.10     0.10     0.69    18.21     3.36P    6.70R    0.82  
Brentford         9   10   -3      51.75    12.95   -14.66     0.00     0.07     3.57     0.74P   19.62R    2.63  
Walsall           9   10   -4      53.25    13.35   -13.76     0.01     0.12     4.73     1.07P   17.87R    2.18  
Yeovil            9    9   -1      53.71    13.28   -11.69     0.03     0.12     5.37     1.11P   16.08R    2.24  
Carlisle          9    9   -3      39.32    12.38   -41.40     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.11P   57.45R   17.01  
Leyton_Orient     9    9   -4      49.08    13.66   -28.45     0.02     0.06     3.32     0.52P   28.16R    5.84  
Exeter            9    9   -4      51.65    13.05   -15.37     0.01     0.06     3.62     0.72P   20.23R    2.54  
Brighton          9    9   -7      42.24    12.79   -44.72     0.00     0.02     1.00     0.16P   48.43R   13.61  
Wycombe           9    6   -6      52.24    14.42   -13.88     0.02     0.14     5.19     1.18P   22.18R    4.33  
Tranmere          9    4  -13      34.19    12.28   -55.61     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.02P   71.23R   35.25  
Southampton       9   -1   -1      49.12    13.86     0.07     0.00     0.03     3.08     0.93P   26.37R    5.88  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, Aldershot vs Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bournemouth           9   24  +10      98.98    13.10    49.02    32.41    67.24    92.79    75.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red             9   20  +10      94.59    12.35    56.51    18.23    55.58    90.18    64.82P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham             9   20   +9      91.67    12.93    43.10    13.47    45.08    84.68    57.74P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot             9   17   +7      75.09    14.93    18.45     2.27    11.72    43.15    18.94P    0.09R    0.01  
Rochdale              9   17   +7      80.86    13.42    30.12     3.54    17.90    58.80    27.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury            9   17   +5      78.62    13.21    24.97     2.04    12.82    52.07    21.08P    0.04R    0.01  
Barnet                9   15   +2      75.03    13.65    17.64     0.97     8.23    41.99    16.50P    0.09R    0.02  
Bradford              9   15   +0      71.36    13.85    10.12     0.64     5.60    31.81    10.35P    0.23R    0.03  
Notts_County          8   13  +12      96.75    12.22    77.88    25.46    64.08    92.97    74.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham            9   13   -1      59.94    13.68   -10.30     0.07     1.02    10.45     2.69P    1.05R    0.10  
Crewe                 9   12   +0      59.68    13.48    -7.08     0.06     0.87    10.24     2.72P    1.17R    0.12  
Accrington_Stanley    9   12   -4      46.90    12.55   -39.41     0.00     0.04     1.46     0.23P    9.14R    1.58  
Bury                  9   12   -4      41.78    12.04   -39.97     0.00     0.03     0.57     0.15P   16.84R    3.21  
Burton_Albion         9   11   +0      71.85    13.85    18.10     0.47     5.09    33.82    11.96P    0.22R    0.05  
Chesterfield          9   11   -3      63.96    13.41     0.84     0.08     1.28    14.76     4.03P    0.76R    0.14  
Port_Vale             8   10   +2      59.08    14.35    -1.66     0.12     1.22    10.67     3.93P    1.77R    0.28  
Grimsby               9   10   -7      36.28    11.54   -58.50     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.04P   34.89R    8.19  
Morecambe             9    9   -4      63.84    13.70     2.06     0.12     1.45    15.34     4.01P    1.03R    0.14  
Lincoln_City          9    9   -6      45.67    12.84   -28.58     0.00     0.05     1.22     0.29P   12.23R    2.52  
Macclesfield          9    9   -7      50.66    13.66   -27.34     0.00     0.13     2.91     0.56P    8.09R    2.02  
Hereford              9    7   -5      43.80    12.86   -34.18     0.00     0.05     0.97     0.21P   13.90R    3.39  
Northampton           9    7   -6      56.41    13.75    -9.79     0.01     0.36     6.15     1.43P    3.30R    0.74  
Torquay               9    6   -6      50.96    13.33   -17.57     0.01     0.15     2.75     0.63P    6.26R    1.50  
Darlington            9    2  -11      19.68     9.27   -74.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   88.89R   75.96  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 September 2009, AFC_Wimbledon vs Histon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Oxford_Utd           13   32  +17     114.66    10.01    77.49    62.07    98.02    74.40P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            13   24   +9      93.19    11.63    41.37     3.66    56.27    16.96P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            12   23   +9      89.53    12.25    33.79     2.57    43.01    13.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield            13   23   +8      85.32    11.66    29.68     0.89    29.51     5.91P    0.00     0.00  
York                 12   22   +8      86.50    12.37    29.64     1.43    34.02     9.18P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                12   22   +5      89.35    12.39    31.90     2.25    42.19    10.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth             13   22   +5      80.82    12.06    19.05     0.48    18.42     4.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         13   21   -4      65.21    11.84   -14.27     0.01     1.60     0.20P    0.33R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        13   20  +12      88.26    11.86    46.23     1.98    40.42    11.02P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        12   20  +10      93.63    11.85    51.27     4.57    58.34    18.74P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    12   20   +7      75.63    12.48    13.14     0.23    10.45     2.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster        13   18   +3      68.58    11.79     2.63     0.03     3.03     0.55P    0.11R    0.00  
Altrincham           13   18   +2      71.36    11.83     7.96     0.04     4.51     1.01P    0.07R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   12   15   -5      56.94    11.95   -21.72     0.00     0.34     0.04P    2.35R    0.15  
Histon               13   14   -6      56.30    11.49   -22.01     0.00     0.25     0.04P    2.36R    0.14  
Wrexham              10   13   +3      78.87    14.41    22.05     0.63    18.60     5.51P    0.12R    0.02  
Barrow               13   10  -14      43.47    11.24   -43.02     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.18R    2.95  
Salisbury            13    8   -1      53.25    11.33    -9.92     0.00     0.10     0.01P    4.13R    0.38  
Gateshead            12    8  -11      50.85    11.98   -29.84     0.00     0.06     0.01P    8.64R    0.89  
Ebbsfleet_United     13    8  -14      38.51    10.44   -46.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.07R    6.61  
Forest_Green         13    8  -16      33.83     9.52   -59.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.30R   13.14  
Hayes_&_Yeading      12    7   -9      43.63    11.41   -43.33     0.00     0.01     0.00    21.32R    3.25  
Grays_Athletic       12    7  -11      45.13    11.50   -42.49     0.00     0.02     0.00    17.73R    2.72  
Eastbourne_Boro       1    1   +0      62.53    36.60    -4.17    11.61    23.83    16.26P   24.72R   12.21  
Rushden_&_D'mnds      1    0   -1      48.63    37.94   -51.54     7.56    17.00    10.10P   45.47R   32.58  
Chester              11  -15   -6      30.85    12.82   -18.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.08R   24.94  

Adjustments:
Salisbury            -10
Chester              -25